Monday, January18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Palmyra, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 5:23PM Monday January 18, 2021 9:33 PM EST (02:33 UTC) Moonrise 10:54AMMoonset 11:03PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 644 Pm Est Mon Jan 18 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm est this evening...
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 644 Pm Est Mon Jan 18 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. In the wake of the passage of upper level system, gusty winds will be widespread across the area waterways through this evening. High pressure builds to the south of our region through the early parts of this week. Small craft advisories likely Wednesday into Thursday, and possible again on Friday. There will also be potential gales on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmyra, VA
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location: 37.83, -78.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 190207 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 907 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds into the area tonight and Tuesday. A dry cold front crosses the area Tuesday night. Low pressure moves east but stays well south of the area Thursday and Friday. Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. As of 910 PM EST Monday .

Only minor adjustments to the forecast this evening. High pressure builds across the region tonight leading to dry conditions. Skies become mostly clear tonight, though mid-level clouds may linger, especially across western portions of the area. Went ahead and adjusted sky cover accordingly. Low temperatures are still on track to range from the mid/upper 20s inland to the low to mid 30s closer to the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 215 PM EST Monday .

High pres settles into the se Tue. The next sfc trof/cold front will cross the area Tues night with high pres re-establishing itself over the area Wed into Thurs. Dry through the period with only periodic cloud coverage. The pres gradient will result in breezy conditions at times during peak heating hrs. SW (downsloping) winds Tue shift to the NW Wed.

Highs Tue 50-55. Lows Tue nite 30-35. Highs Wed mid 40s north to lwr 50s south as CAA is slow to spill east. CAA sets in Wed nite with lows in the 20s to near 30 se. Highs Thurs 45-50 with more cloud coverage in the aftrn across the south.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 215 PM EST Monday .

Models continue to show a series of weak shortwaves moving east across the deep south Thurs nite and Fri. Both the ECMWF/CMC keep any rain chcs south of the AKQ fa, while the GFS is the outlier but has backed off a bit on the nrn extension of any pcpn (about up to the Albemarle Sound). Even the NAM keeps any pcpn well south of the local area at 84 hrs (00Z Fri). This all gets kicked south and east Fri as the next trof/cold front cross the area. Thus, will maintain the a dry forecast. Lows Thurs nite 30-35 north, 35-40 south. Pt to mstly sunny Fri with highs 45-50 north, lwr 50s south.

Canadian high pressure builds in from the nw over the weekend. This will send temps blo normal with highs both Sat/Sun upr 30s-mid 40s. Lows in the 20s to arnd 30 se.

Models offer up different solns wrt a systm early next week. GFS has a sgnfcnt rain event overspreading the area Mon psbly starting off as a wintery mix across the nwrn zones), the ECMWF shows a lighter pcpn event Mon but more wintery pcpn across the ne before changing to all rain, while the Canadian is much drier Mon with no sgnfcnt pcpn until Mon nite/Tue. Given a low confidence day 7 forecast, will try a model blend this far out with the trend for a psbl wintery mix Mon morn changing to rain. Lows Sun nite upr 20s-lwr 30s. Highs Mon in the 40s.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 630 PM EST Monday .

VFR conditions expected to continue through the 00z TAF period. Expect the mid level cloud deck (~7000 to 8000 ft) over many of the TAF sites to continue to dissipate over the next couple of hours. Mainly SKC skies expected after 03z with only FEW to SCT higher clouds. Another mid level cloud deck potentially moves across the region Tuesday afternoon. W winds remain elevated tonight around 5 knots, becoming gusty again Tuesday afternoon (~10-13 knots with gusts to around 20 knots).

Outlook: A persistent pattern keeps VFR conditions through Thursday. Low pressure passes south of the region Thursday night and Friday. High pressure builds in from the NW over the weekend.

MARINE. As of 400 PM EST Monday .

SCA is in effect for all coastal waters until late this evening or tonight. Westerly to northwesterly winds are around 20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt, especially across the southern Chesapeake Bay and James River. Winds will decrease overnight southwest 10-15 kt as high pressure moves in. Westerly winds will be near SCA criteria Tuesday afternoon as another weak front moves off the coast. Thinking is that gusts will be just below SCA levels.

A stronger cold front will move off the coast Wednesday with gusty NW winds. SCA will be likely winds NW 15-25 kt.

EQUIPMENT. As of 215 PM EST Monday .

NWS Wakefield (KAKQ) radar transmitter is malfunctioning and the radar remains offline until Tuesday afternoon (01/19/2021). The Newport/Morehead City radar (KMHX) is also offline due to a scheduled generator upgrade. Users are encouraged to access adjacent radars from Blacksburg (KFCX), Raleigh (KRAX), Sterling (KLWX), and Dover AFB (KDOX) through the outage period.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ632.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . AJB SHORT TERM . MPR LONG TERM . MPR AVIATION . AJB MARINE . CP EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 90 mi63 min WSW 1.9 41°F 1019 hPa25°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 98 mi45 min WNW 11 G 12

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport, VA22 mi40 minN 010.00 miOvercast39°F20°F46%1018.3 hPa
Louisa, Louisa County Airport/Freeman Field, VA22 mi38 minN 010.00 miOvercast29°F20°F69%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLKU

Wind History from LKU (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW4S3SW6S5SW5SW5SW4SW4SW5SW4--SW7SW5W7W8
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2 days agoW3SW3W4CalmCalmCalmSW3SW4W3CalmCalmW3SW3SW5W6W5W8
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Tide / Current Tables for Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia
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Richmond (river locks)
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:09 AM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:22 AM EST     2.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:30 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:18 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:46 PM EST     2.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:00 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.40-0.2-00.81.82.52.92.92.51.91.20.60.2-0.1-0.10.51.52.32.82.92.62.1

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Rocketts, James River, Virginia
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Lower Rocketts
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:03 AM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:19 AM EST     2.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:24 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:18 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:43 PM EST     2.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:00 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.4-0-0.200.91.92.62.92.92.41.81.20.60.2-0.1-00.61.52.32.82.92.62

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.