Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 2:47 AM   Moonset 2:10 PM

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PZZ545 Coastal Waters From Point Reyes To Pigeon Point California Out To 10 Nm- 238 Am Pdt Fri May 3 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening - .
Today - NW winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Wind waves 6 to 8 ft. NW swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds. Tonight - W winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft. NW swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds. Rain.Sat - W winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. W swell around 2 ft at 7 seconds. Rain.Sat night - NW winds 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves 6 to 8 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 15 seconds. Sun - NW winds 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft. NW swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 15 seconds. Sun night - NW winds 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 15 seconds. Mon - NW winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft. NW swell 2 to 3 ft and sw around 2 ft. Tue - NW winds 20 to 30 knots. Wind waves 7 to 9 ft. NW swell 2 to 4 ft and sw around 2 ft.
- .san francisco bar/fourfathom bank forecast - - .
in the deep water channel - .mixed seas of 4 to 6 ft at 9 seconds.
across the bar - .mixed seas of 5 to 7 ft at 9 seconds. Maximum ebb current of 2.1 kt at 01:24 pm Friday and 2.8 kt at 02:10 am Saturday.

PZZ500 238 Am Pdt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
strong and gusty northwesterly winds will persist for yet another day as the region remains in between high pressure over the eastern pacific ocean and low pressure over the southwest. Gale force gusts will be possible, especially over the coastal waters and southernmost zones. Tonight, a cold front will drop down from the pacific northwest bringing rain and moderate to fresh breezes across the waters. As the low pressure system exits to the east and the pressure gradient is allowed to relax, winds will diminish going into next week.

FXUS66 KMTR 030809 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 109 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024

New UPDATE, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1243 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024

A cold front will bring rain, gusty winds, and colder temperatures on Saturday. Dry weather returns Sunday as a gradual warming trend kicks off.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 108 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024

A shallow marine layer will bring low stratus to coastal areas and adjacent valleys Friday morning. High temperatures will depend on whether a location is in or out of the marine layer. For example, Pt. Reyes is only expected to reach 56 degrees today, while Santa Rosa will flirt with 80, and enjoy ample sunshine. By the afternoon, an approaching cold front will cause the winds to increase, with rain reaching the North Bay early Saturday morning.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 108 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024

A gale force, 997 mb, vertically stacked low pressure system is currently near the Gulf of Alaska. This system will be driven southeast by a 150 kt jet stream through Saturday. This strong jet max will also create divergence aloft, allowing the surface pressure to remain steady or even decrease slightly as the system loses latitude. The low center is expected to come ashore near Northern California or Southern Oregon early Saturday morning. An associated cold front will cross the Bay Area through the day Saturday. This frontal passage will bring periods of rain and gusty winds as it ushers in a new, colder air mass.

Precipitable water values are expected to be above 1" on Saturday, with some guidance as high as 1.25". As the cold, dense air lifts this moisture, rain clouds will develop. The total QPF is holding pretty steady with most places expected to receive around 0.5" on Saturday. While not a total wash-out, this is a significant amount for May, which has monthly normal rainfall pretty close to the expected amount from this one system.

During the afternoon OAK balloon launch Thursday, the 1000-700 mb thickness was measured at 2967 m. This new air mass will drop the that to around 2815 m, according to the NAM point sounding. By Sunday morning, NAM has the 700 mb temperature down to -12.7C, which is well below the 10th percentile (-5.2 C) and even the daily minimum (-9.9 C) from May 5, 1988. Note the 1000-500 mb thickness drop isn't as impressive due to more flat mid-level lapse rates. This suggests that any convection that takes advantage of the cold air aloft will be low-topped, even by Bay Area standards. Additionally, the coldest mid-level air arrives overnight Saturday/early Sunday during the diurnal minimum. These two factors should limit the potential for thunderstorms, although a slight chance remains.

Finally, this system will bring a noticeable drop in temperature, especially for inland areas. Friday will feature inland temps in the mid to upper 70s. 24 hours later, these same places will be stuck in the upper 50s or low 60s.

Beyond Saturday, the forecast is more straight forward. Ridging from subtropical high pressure builds in Sunday which will gradually transition to the standard coastal trough set-up by mid next week. This pattern will bring the return of dry weather, lots of sunshine, and a gradual warming trend. Coastal areas may reach the low 70s and some inland areas will be in the 80s by late week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 958 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024

IFR and MVFR CIGs have pushed slightly inland affecting the Monterey Bay terminals and SFO. Winds ease into the late night becoming light to moderate. Cloud cover thins in the mid to late morning Friday, leading to widespread VFR. Gusty westerly winds arrive Friday afternoon and last into the night. As winds reduce, low clouds move into the coast and bays Friday night, leading IFR CIGs spreading farther inland. Winds turn southwesterly as showers approach the region into early Saturday.

Vicinity of SFO...Moments of IFR CIGs through the late night. Expect moderate westerly winds to reduce into early Friday morning.
Scattered lower clouds linger into the mid morning. Gusty west winds build into Friday afternoon, peaking around 27 kts and gusting above 30 kts. Winds reduce into late Friday evening, but remain breezy until they shift and become southwesterly with the arriving showers.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR through the mid to late morning.
Winds stay light to moderate through the morning before moderate to breezy winds arrive Friday afternoon. IFR CIGs return Friday evening as winds reduce.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 858 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024

Gusty winds persist throughout Friday afternoon, with gale force gusts of 35 to 45 knots possible in the southern waters. Strong winds will result in hazardous seas and steep wind waves with significant wave heights reaching 10 to 13 feet in the outer waters. Conditions briefly improve over the weekend, but will increase into next week to more moderate levels. Rain chances begin late Friday night as a trough descends over the region into Saturday.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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Bolinas Lagoon
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:50 AM PDT     1.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:47 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:11 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:47 AM PDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:52 PM PDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:10 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:03 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:09 PM PDT     3.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bolinas Lagoon, California, Tide feet

South Channel
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:00 AM PDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:46 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:44 AM PDT     0.94 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:11 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:53 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:50 AM PDT     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:09 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:14 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:22 PM PDT     1.43 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:03 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:54 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

South Channel, San Francisco Bay Approach, California Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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