Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 3:30 AM   Moonset 4:19 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 351 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Through 7 pm - S winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Mon - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely.Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the evening. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. Thu - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.Thu night - W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 351 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a frontal boundary slowly lifts north through the local waters tonight, with winds becoming more southerly. High pressure becomes centered well off the southeast coast on Monday, as a weakening cold front approaches from the ohio valley. That front stalls just north of the area Monday night and Tuesday, with a series of low pressure systems passing by, mainly to the north through Thursday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 052020 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 420 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
Off and on showers are expected to continue through tonight.
Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...

Late this aftn, a warm front was lifting back north across the region. Latest radar showed sctd showers and isolated tstms moving ENE through wrn/cntrl portions of the CWA Heavier showers were occurring over scntrl VA into NE NC. Temps were ranging from the mid to upper 60s over the Piedmont and portions of the Lower MD and VA ern shore, and ranging through the 70s elsewhere.

This shortwave energy within the SW flow aloft helping to produce the pcpn, will shift ewrd this evening and off the coast by early Mon morning. Thus, the showers/storms will continue ENE through this evening, and should be offshore by early Mon morning. Heavier showers will dissipate by late this evening.
Remaining mild tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Continued unsettled pattern with on and off rain Monday through Wednesday

- A warming trend expected with above normal temps and humid conditions

Mon and Tue mark the start of a summer-like pattern that will persist through at least Thu. Multiple rounds of shortwaves in a mainly zonal flow aloft plus a lee trough, will lead to off and on shower/storm chances. These will likely follow a generally diurnal pattern with the best chances in the aftn through late evening. Highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s on Mon, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. HRRR mean CAPE shows values over 1000 J/KG, but shear will be weak. Therefore, severe weather is not expected outside of a strong storm or two.
Lows Mon night in the lower to mid 60s. Increasingly warmer and humid for Tue and Wed, with chances for mainly aftn/evening showers and tstms. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tue, and in the mid 80s to near 90 Wed. At this time, there will be the potential for strong or severe storms Wed.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...

Warm and humid conditions will continue for Wed into Thu evening, then drier air and closer to normal temps will return for Fri through Sun. Stronger 500 mb flow combined with shortwave energy/sfc trough will likely result in the potential for strong or severe storms Thu into Thu evening. A cold front and upper trough will then push across the region Fri through Fri evening, producing more showers and possibly tstms. Except for slight or small chances for showers Sat through Sun, near or slightly below normal temps and more comfortable humidity will prevail. Highs will range through the 80s Thu, in the mid to upper 70s Fri, and in the lower to mid 70s Sat and Sun.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 220 PM EDT Sunday...

A warm front will push N of the area by this evening. However, the warm front combined with shortwave energy/moisture/lift, will produce sctd showers and tstms into tonight. So, expect VFR to MVFR conditions with the pcpn into tonight. Then, expect MVFR or IFR CIGs to return to the TAF sites later tonight into Mon morning, due to lingering low level moisture behind the exiting pcpn. Winds will be SE-S this aftn into Mon morning, then become SW by later Mon morning. through the period and gusty at the coast this afternoon. Expect mainly VFR or MVFR conditions for Mon aftn, along with the return chance of showers or tstms.

Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns Tue through Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.

MARINE
As of 325 PM EDT Sunday...

1028mb high pressure is centered S of Nova Scotia this aftn, with a warm front and surface trough from central VA into central NC. The wind is SSE 15kt with gusts up to 20kt and seas are 3-4ft, with waves in the Ches. Bay approximately 2-3ft. The warm front will continue to lift back N tonight with the wind becoming more from the S at 10-15 kt, and then to the SSW by Monday. The wind will average ~10 kt with gusts less than 20 kt through much the week so outside of any tstms, conditions will be sub-SCA. The wind may increase a bit Thursday into Friday as the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of a stronger cold front.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 325 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for the northern Neck and Bay-side of the Maryland Eastern Shore through late tonight/early Monday for minor flooding.

Ebb tides have been stronger than flood tides over the past 24 hours, and this has led to a slight decrease in tidal anomalies over the Bay and tidal rivers, with departures mainly ~1.25ft above astronomical. Given that the wind has become SSE tidal anomalies are expected to increase some during high tide tonight/early Monday morning, and this will also occur with the higher astronomical tide. Therefore, Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect to cover this period for the Northern Neck and Bay-side of the MD Eastern Shore. Water levels are expected to drop off by ~0.5 ft later Monday as the wind shifts to the SW and water flushes out of the mouth of the Bay. Some nuisance to localized low-end minor flooding will still be possible with the higher diurnal astronomical tides late Monday night/early Tuesday morning and again late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Guard Shore
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:06 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:35 AM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:16 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:02 PM EDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Guard Shore, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:23 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:15 AM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:33 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:42 PM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Dover AFB, DE,