Tuesday, January26, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lee Mont, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:19PM Tuesday January 26, 2021 9:57 PM EST (02:57 UTC) Moonrise 3:13PMMoonset 5:39AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 706 Pm Est Tue Jan 26 2021
.gale watch in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday evening...
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Patchy fog late this evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this evening and overnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Areas of fog early in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of snow and rain after midnight.
Thu..N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 25 to 30 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts to 35 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft. A chance of snow in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of snow in the morning. A chance of rain.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely.
ANZ600 706 Pm Est Tue Jan 26 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure pushes farther out to sea through tonight. Another area of low pressure tracks south of the local area and off the coast late Wednesday into Thursday morning. High pressure builds into and across the region Thursday night through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lee Mont, VA
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location: 37.85, -75.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 270232 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 932 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure pushes farther offshore through tonight. Another area of low pressure tracks south of the local area late Wednesday into Thursday morning. High pressure builds across the region for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. As of 930 PM EST Tuesday .

Some adjustments to sky cover and visibility grids this evening. Guidance is split regarding the prevalence of fog vs low stratus tonight. Surface and satellite observations show widespread low clouds across the local area with visibility running in the 1-3 SM range. Think the low clouds will hang on and keep visibility from falling too low. A few tricky areas to our south and west where cloud cover is a bit more broken, allowing for slight cooling and super saturation of the low level airmass leading to areas of dense fog. Temperatures will only fall a few degrees from their current readings with lows in the low 30s N to the mid 40s S.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 355 PM EST Tuesday .

For tomorrow, all eyes will turn to shortwave trough which opens up and slides east across the plains to the mid-south tomorrow, with its attendant sfc low crossing the deep south, reaching the western Carolinas by midnight tomorrow night.

Day begins overcast/mostly cloudy for most. Did maintain some low chance PoPs over the southern half of the area, but expect measurable rain to remain south of the local area. Overall, 12z models have continued to trend toward a rather dry sub-cloud layer, courtesy of cold 1036+mb sfc high ridging south into the local area from the northern plains.

Trend Pops up into high chance to likely range Late Wed aftn and after 00z/Thu (Wed night), with DPVA ahead of the approaching system from the TN Valley. Overall, model trends have continued to nudge toward a drier, faster solution, though models continue to depict a narrow stripe of frontogenetic forcing, with a rather short-lived period of modest dendritic omega sweeping across our southern tier of counties after midnight. Resultant dynamic cooling of the vertical column should result in mixed precipitation changing over to mostly snow. Best Isentropic overrunning (295-300k sfc) is over this same area. Thus, while some light flurries/snow showers are possible for central VA and the peninsula . best chance for (light) accumulating snowfall will be near and just before sunrise Thu morning over the eastern Tidewater and (more likely) NE NC.

At this time, snowfall accumulations will be less than 0.5" for most of the area, due to limited moisture. Farther south, our snow accumulations of 0.5 to around 1 inch have been added for the us- 17/158 corridor in NE NC and far Srn VA. This meshes well with 12z EPS Probs, which is in thr 30-50% range. Given marginal temps, would expect snow to be mainly limited to grassy surfaces. This will need to be watched for a potential Winter Wx Advisory with subsequent model runs.

Precip tapers off by mid-morning Thursday, with quick clearing later Thu morning and afternoon. Much cooler with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s Other issue will be probable wind headlines. N-NW winds become breezy/windy in its wake as clearing occurs. Gusts to 35-45 mph are expected . most likely at the coast. At this time, a Wind Advisory looks likely to be needed for at least the lower eastern shore, Hampton Roads and NE NC. Cold wind chills remain in the 30s all day, with highs right around 40.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 355 PM EST Tuesday .

High pressure centers over the area Friday then moves offshore Saturday. Temps will remain cool Friday with temps in the upper 30s/lower 40s then only slight warming into the low-mid 40s Saturday. Then, the medium range models have another area of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes then developing another low off the NE coast by Monday. The associated cold front will move through the region Sunday. Snow to rain poss Sunday morning before southerly flow allows for rain as temps warm into the 40s and lower 50s. (12Z/26 ECMWF ensembles do show an increase in prob snow accums 3" or more over portions of the piedmont, with yet another Miller-B set up modeled. GFS is a bit faster and more compact. Precip chances look good, so high end chance to likely PoPs are in order, but phase will take a bit more time to ascertain. ECMWF solution would portend to a snowier solution if the current idea is maintained. Drying out behind the system, but remaining cold relative to normal as mean east coast trough looks to set up. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 710 PM EST Tuesday .

Mix of IFR and LIFR conditions across the region this evening with west and NW winds generally falling below 5 kt for the overnight period. Guidance is split regarding fog or low stratus being the main cause of IFR/LIFR conditions overnight. Given satellite and surface observations, feel that low stratus will likely hold on over much of the region tonight. If some clearing can materialize, cooling and quick low-level saturation could lead to dense fog formation. Regardless, poor flying weather is expected through the first half of the 00z TAF period. Conditions are forecast to improve to MVFR/VFR by mid to late morning with NW winds at generally 5-10 kt.

Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions expected Wed night and Thu (KORF/KECG), as another low pres affects the FA, then moves offshore early Thu w/ additional flight restrictions due to low CIGs and pcpn. Becoming VFR and breezy/windy Thu. VFR conds then prevail Thu night-Sunday.

MARINE. As of 415 PM EST Tuesday .

Low pressure will push farther out to sea through tonight. WNW winds 5-10 kt this evening/tonight, will become NW or N 5-15 kt during Wed, as weak high pressure builds into/over the area. The next storm will then affect the local waters Wed night then exit quickly out to sea during Thu. By late Wed night into Thu morning, NNW winds will increase and become very strong in the wake of the storm Thu into Thu night. Despite the storm being quick to move through the region (as well as slower to strengthen offshore Thu/Thu night), solid Gales will be likely (strong SCAs for the Rivers (635-637)), and a Gale Watch is in effect for all the waters except River zns 635-637. Gusts 35-40 kt will be common for the Ches Bay/Currituck Sound/Coastal Waters and around 30 kt for the Rivers from early Thu morning through Thu evening. NW winds will slowly diminish Fri aftn into Fri night. Seas are expected to top out between 6-9 ft with waves on the Bay 4-5 ft.

HYDROLOGY. Flood Warning has been posted for the Meherrin River at Lawrenceville. Additional flood warnings may be needed later this week along the Nottoway River, and will need to monitor Stony Creek, and Sebrell.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ635>637. Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for ANZ634. Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for ANZ630>633-638. Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for ANZ650-652-654. Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through late Thursday night for ANZ656-658.

SYNOPSIS . MAM NEAR TERM . RHR SHORT TERM . ALB/MAM LONG TERM . MAM AVIATION . MAM/RHR MARINE . TMG HYDROLOGY .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 17 mi418 min WNW 1.9 G 4.1 43°F 41°F1009.3 hPa (-1.1)
44089 22 mi392 min 45°F4 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 27 mi418 min NNW 8.9 G 8.9 1010.3 hPa (-1.3)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 31 mi418 min NNW 4.1 G 6 38°F 38°F1009.8 hPa (-1.6)
44042 - Potomac, MD 35 mi394 min WNW 7.8 G 7.8 38°F 41°F1010.8 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 41 mi418 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 39°F 38°F1010.3 hPa (-1.0)
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 47 mi418 min NNE 2.9 G 4.1 45°F 42°F1009.5 hPa (-2.2)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 47 mi418 min NW 8 G 8.9
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 49 mi418 min NNW 6 G 8 44°F

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA14 mi63 minNW 81.25 miFog/Mist38°F38°F97%1012.2 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA15 mi64 minW 1010.00 miOvercast40°F39°F97%1011.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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E7NE3NE7E5E6E4E3W6NW6W5--W6CalmW4NW5NW7NW8
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1 day agoSW6SW8SW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--E5E5----E4------SE4E5E5NE6E8
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Tide / Current Tables for Guard Shore, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Guard Shore
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Tue -- 04:27 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:39 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:24 AM EST     2.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:30 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:41 PM EST     1.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.410.50.2000.40.91.522.32.32.11.71.20.70.30.10.10.40.91.41.81.8

Tide / Current Tables for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:44 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:39 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:04 AM EST     2.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:47 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:20 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:21 PM EST     1.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.60.30-00.20.61.11.61.92.121.71.30.80.40.20.10.30.61.11.41.61.6

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