Tuesday, January19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Island, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:11PM Tuesday January 19, 2021 1:47 PM EST (18:47 UTC) Moonrise 11:10AMMoonset 11:52PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 1010 Am Est Tue Jan 19 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt in the late morning and early afternoon, then diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft late in the evening.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ600 1010 Am Est Tue Jan 19 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure builds into the area today. A dry cold front crosses the area tonight into tomorrow morning. Low pressure moves east but stays well south of the area Thursday and Friday. Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Island, MD
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location: 37.88, -76.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 191817 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 117 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds across the southeast states this afternoon, as low pressure moves through eastern Canada and northern New England. A dry cold front crosses the area late tonight into Wednesday morning. Low pressure tracks across the deep south Thursday and Friday. Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1130 AM EST Tuesday .

Latest analysis indicates ~1031mb sfc high pressure centered across northern FL/southern GA, with a sfc trough along the Appalachians. Aloft, the flow is westerly, out ahead of a subtle trough moving through the upper midwest. After a cold start earlier this morning, temperatures have warmed into the upper 40s to lower 50s across most of the region under mostly sunny skies. With fairly deep mixing this aftn, a SW wind will be breezy with gusts to 20-25 mph across the area, along with fairly mild temperatures for late January: highs ranging from the mid to upper 50s over southern VA and NE NC to the upper 40s to lower 50s on the eastern shore.

A quick moving upper trough will swing through the local area tonight, which will drag a cold front through the forecast area overnight. Due to the dry airmass, and little to no moisture return today, not expecting any precip with this frontal passage, though it will be felt through gusty winds, and colder temperatures behind it. Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s across the NW, with most of the area dropping to 30-35F (upper 30s far SE).

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 310 AM EST Tuesday .

Strong cold air advection, and colder temps aloft tomorrow will keep temps in the low to mid 40s across much of the area, with NE NC reaching the upper 40s to around 50, despite mostly sunny skies. Then below freezing temps expected tomorrow night, as winds likely decouple with high pressure briefly pushing into the area. Have lows generally in the mid to upper 20s inland, and the low to mid 30s along the coast.

Highs Thurs 45-50 with more cloud coverage in the aftn across the south.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 620 AM EST Tuesday .

Models continue to show a series of weak shortwaves moving east across the deep south Thurs night and Fri. Both the ECMWF/CMC keep any rain chcs south of the AKQ fa, while the GFS is the outlier but has backed off a bit on the nrn extension of any pcpn (about up to the Albemarle Sound). Even the NAM keeps any pcpn well south of the local area at 84 hrs (00Z Fri). This all gets kicked south and east Fri as the next trof/cold front cross the area. Thus, will maintain the a dry forecast. Lows Thurs night 30-35 north, 35-40 south. Pt to mstly sunny Fri with highs 45-50 north, lwr 50s south.

Canadian high pressure builds in from the nw over the weekend. This will send temps blo normal with highs both Sat/Sun upr 30s-mid 40s. Lows in the 20s to arnd 30 se.

Still relatively low forecast confidence for the Monday/Monday night system, with models still having issues resolving upper low over central Ontario . as well as a strong southern stream system lifting out of the Texarkana region. GFS remains more amplified, and shows a rather significant rain event for the mid-Atlantic, potentially starting off as a wintry mix across the nwrn zones. The ECMWF and CMC, are a bit slower but eventually depict a similar mix (far NW) to rain scenario. Relatively low confidence day 7 forecast, will try a model blend this far out with the trend for a psbl wintry mix Mon morn changing to rain. Lows Sun night upr 20s-lwr 30s. Highs Mon in the 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 100 PM EST Tuesday .

VFR conditions across area terminals will continue through the 18z TAF period. Skies will avg out mostly sunny with scattered clouds this afternoon, along with breezy SW winds of 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt. Diminishing winds after 21Z, will avg 10 kt or less overnight. Periods of BKN cloud cover will prevail between 06-12Z, but all CIGs are expected to stay at or above 4,000 ft. Winds shift to the W/NW after 12Z/Wed with clearing skies and increasing winds. After 15Z, gusts to 25kt or greater will be possible at all terminals.

Outlook: Looking ahead, a persistent pattern keeps VFR conditions across the region into the weekend. Low pressure passes south of the region Thursday night and Friday and will bring some increase in clouds, but all CIGs should remain VFR. High pressure builds in from the NW over the weekend.

MARINE. As of 310 AM EST Tuesday .

High pressure will continue over the area today, though as the pressure gradient increases due to an approaching cold front, winds will increase briefly this afternoon to 15-20 kts over the Chesapeake Bay, and 20-25 kts over the coastal waters. While a few gusts to SCA levels are possible, the threat remains marginal, and no advisory is expected for this time period.

The bigger threat for small craft conditions will come early tomorrow morning as winds increase rapidly behind a dry cold front. Have issued SCAs for all marine zones, with strong winds lasting through the day and into tomorrow evening. On the Chesapeake Bay and adjacent rivers winds of 20-25 kts with gusts to around 30 kt are expected with seas building to 3-5 ft. Across the coastal waters, winds will increase to 25-30 kts, with some gusts to 35 kts or so possible across the outer portions of the zone for a few hours late tomorrow morning. Will refrain from Gale Warnings at this time due to the small time scale and marginal conditions. Otherwise, seas will build to 4-6 across the coastal waters.

Winds and seas come down rapidly tomorrow night, but soon build again on Thursday, with small craft conditions again possible.

EQUIPMENT. As of 630 AM EST Tuesday .

NWS Wakefield (KAKQ) radar transmitter is malfunctioning and will periodically be offline until later this afternoon (01/19/2021). The Newport/Morehead City radar (KMHX) is also offline due to a scheduled generator upgrade. Users are encouraged to access adjacent radars from Blacksburg (KFCX), Raleigh (KRAX), Sterling (KLWX), and Dover AFB (KDOX) through the outage period.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632-634>638. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 11 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . LKB/MAM SHORT TERM . 99 LONG TERM . MPR/MAM AVIATION . LKB MARINE . 99 EQUIPMENT . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44042 - Potomac, MD 12 mi29 min W 9.7 G 12 46°F 42°F1021 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 15 mi47 min W 11 G 16 47°F 40°F1020.6 hPa (-3.0)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 24 mi47 min WNW 8.9 G 17
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 26 mi47 min SW 11 G 12 44°F 45°F1020.1 hPa (-3.3)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 26 mi47 min S 13 G 15 1021.7 hPa (-2.9)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 33 mi47 min W 11 G 21 47°F 42°F1019.7 hPa (-3.3)
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi47 min SW 8 G 13 49°F 43°F1021 hPa (-3.0)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi47 min WSW 8.9 G 23 47°F 1020.3 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 41 mi77 min WSW 5.1 51°F 1022 hPa29°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 44 mi47 min W 15 G 17 49°F
44072 47 mi37 min WNW 14 G 16 48°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 47 mi47 min W 11 G 21 51°F 44°F1020.9 hPa (-3.4)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 48 mi29 min W 16 G 16 45°F 41°F
44089 49 mi51 min 45°F3 ft
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 49 mi47 min SSW 11 G 16 47°F 41°F1019.8 hPa (-3.4)

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD21 mi54 minWSW 1110.00 miFair51°F32°F48%1020.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Smith Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Smith Point Light
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:50 AM EST     1.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:02 AM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:09 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:02 PM EST     1.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 11:19 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:52 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.60.811.110.80.60.30.10.10.10.30.50.81110.80.60.30.10

Tide / Current Tables for Glebe Point, Great Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Glebe Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:36 AM EST     1.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:04 AM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:10 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST     1.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 11:21 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:53 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.60.911.110.80.50.30.10.10.10.30.60.8110.90.80.50.30.10

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.