Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Island, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:09PM Saturday January 18, 2020 10:32 AM EST (15:32 UTC) Moonrise 1:11AMMoonset 12:25PM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 953 Am Est Sat Jan 18 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through Sunday morning...
Rest of today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 foot, building to 2 to 3 ft this afternoon. A chance of rain this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Rain in the evening.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 15 kt, then becoming nw 15 to 20 kt late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 953 Am Est Sat Jan 18 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure tracks north of the region today as high pressure moves offshore. A cold front crosses the area Sunday. Turning much colder early next week, as another canadian high pressure system slowly builds into the area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Island, MD
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location: 37.88, -76.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 181135 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 635 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong high pressure centered to the north, will translate off the coast early this afternoon. A weak warm warm front will lift across the area today, then a cold front will push into and through the region late tonight into Sunday morning. High pressure builds back in for Sunday afternoon through Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 630 AM EST Saturday .

Quick update to PoP and weather grids to capture areas of light snow and snow flurries translating eastward from the Northern Neck and eventually into the MD eastern shore this morning. Degree of lift has been just enough to overcome dry low levels and result in a brief period of light snow/flurries at the surface. Issued an SPS to cover this threat and any impacts to travel should be minimal. The remainder of the forecast is on track.

Previous Discussion as of 345 AM EST Saturday .

Strong high pressure, centered near/north of New England, will continue ridging southward this morning before moving offshore this afternoon. Meanwhile, low pressure over the Midwest moves eastward with a trailing cold front approaching the region from the west by this evening. A weak warm front moves northward this morning with model guidance showing some concentrated lift/WAA skirting the northern third of the region this morning. With very dry air in place at the surface, not expecting much if any precip at the ground but a brief flurry is possible across the north (~Louisa-NE to Dorchester county, MD) if precip intensity aloft is sufficient. Otherwise, mostly dry through early afternoon as trend in guidance to delay onset of significant precip continues. Temps will likely be too warm by this afternoon to support any P-type issues but dry air at the surface will allow evaporational cooling to decrease temps a few degrees across the NW as precip falls and in-situ wedging sets up. Southeasterly flow elsewhere across the region will allow temps to warm into the mid 40s to low 50s. Rain spreads eastward this afternoon and to the southeast by this evening before moving offshore overnight. South and southwest winds increase and become gusty this afternoon into the overnight as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the cold front, which is now forecast to cross the region Sunday morning. Lows tonight range from the mid 30s NW to right around 50 degrees SE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 345 AM EST Saturday .

Precip moves offshore before sunrise on Sunday with westerly winds in the wake of the cold frontal passage. Winds become gusty again on Sunday as skies begin to clear and deep mixing gets underway by mid morning. Westerly/downsloping flow will keep temps from falling too far behind the front with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Strong Canadian high pressure and associated CAA build in on NW winds for Sunday night with low temps ranging from the low 20s NW to low 30s SE.

Noticeably colder on Monday with temperatures in the mid 30s across the north and even struggling to breach the 40 degree mark across SE VA and NE NC. Strong NW winds will gust 15-20mph inland and 20-25mph near the coast/eastern shore, resulting in wind chills in the upper 20s and low 30s for much of the area. Winds decrease inland by evening but remain elevated over the water through the overnight. Very cold Monday night with temps ranging from the upper teens across the Piedmont to mid 20s over the SE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 355 PM EST Friday .

For much of next week, high pressure will be in control at the surface and troughing aloft. While mainly dry/sunny conditions are expected, next week will feature much colder air compared to the past few weeks. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will struggle to climb out of the upper 30s and lower 40s across the region, with overnight lows Monday night through Wednesday night ranging from the teens to low 20s inland to the mid to upper 20s at the coast. A gradual warming trend begins Thursday into Friday as the center of high pressure begins to shift eastward and ridging develops across the Eastern US. An area of low pressure potentially develops across the central Thursday before moving northeast during the day on Friday. This area of low pressure and its associated frontal boundary may bring a chance of rain to the area late Friday into Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 630 AM EST Saturday .

VFR conditions with high pressure over the region, which moves offshore this late this morning as low pressure and a cold front approach the region from the west. Light and variable E/NE winds will become SE/S through the morning hours and S/SW and gusty by the afternoon as the gradient tightens. BKN/OVC high clouds over the region will gradually lower into the afternoon as rain spreads from west to east 18-00Z. CIGs lower to MVFR late afternoon/early evening at RIC and SBY, a few hours later at PHF, ORF, and ECG. Some guidance is showing potential for IFR CIGs at SBY and RIC after 00Z but held off on explicit mention in the forecast.

OUTLOOK . Cold front crosses the area on Sat night into Sun morning, with any lingering pcpn ending from NW to SE. High pressure builds back in for Sun and Mon.

MARINE. As of 345 AM EST Saturday .

1040mb high pressure is centered over the Adirondack region of NY early this morning, and the high extends swd into the Mid- Atlantic region. The wind is generally ENE 5-10kt, with seas of 3- 4ft for most of the coastal Atlantic, and 4-5ft off the Currituck Outer Banks. Therefore, the SCA will be allowed to expire from the VA/NC border to Cape Charles, and it has been extended through 7 am off the Currituck Outer Banks. The strong high will push offshore today into tonight as low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes today and across New England Sunday. This will produce strong pressure falls (5-6mb/3hr) and the wind will become S 15-25kt later this aftn, then SW 15-25kt tonight. Seas return to 3-5ft S tonight, and build to 4-6ft N, with 2-4ft waves in the Bay. The wind will then become WNW 12-20kt Sunday. SCA flags have been issued for the middle Bay beginning 1 pm today, srn Bay, lower James 4 pm, and nrn ocean (N of Cape Charles) 4 pm today, and then the Currituck Sound and srn ocean 7 pm today. SCAs gradually end Sunday morning, with the exception of the nrn ocean where seas could linger ~5ft out toward 20nm.

A cold front crosses the coast Sunday night with the wind becoming NW 15-25kt into Monday morning, before diminishing to 15-18kt midday into the aftn. A secondary surge of CAA arrives Monday night into early Tuesday morning with a 15-20kt NNW wind. High pressure builds into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. The wind will gradually veer from NNW to NNE with speeds ~15kt N to 15-20kt S. Seas are expected to average 4-5ft Monday-Tuesday, and could build to 6ft S as the wind becomes more northerly. Waves in the Bay are forecast to reach 3-4ft Sunday night and Monday night during the periods of strongest CAA.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ633-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ658.

SYNOPSIS . RHR NEAR TERM . RHR SHORT TERM . RHR LONG TERM . AJB AVIATION . RHR MARINE . AJZ/ERI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44042 - Potomac, MD 12 mi32 min S 9.7 G 12 33°F 44°F1 ft1033.9 hPa (-2.2)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 15 mi50 min 32°F 42°F1034.1 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 22 mi32 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 46°F1 ft1038.4 hPa (-1.7)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 24 mi104 min S 8.9 G 12
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 26 mi56 min 32°F 38°F1034.8 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 26 mi44 min 1035 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 33 mi44 min 31°F 44°F1033.7 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi50 min 35°F 40°F1034 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 41 mi62 min SSE 1.9 34°F 1035 hPa22°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 44 mi44 min 38°F 1034.2 hPa
44072 47 mi32 min WSW 7.8 G 12 38°F 46°F1 ft
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 47 mi50 min 37°F 48°F1033.4 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 49 mi50 min 29°F 43°F1034.1 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD21 mi39 minS 710.00 miA Few Clouds37°F21°F52%1033.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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NW8N7N5N6N5CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE3CalmNE3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5CalmS7
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2 days agoCalmSW44S8SE5E4SE4E3SE5SE7SE8SE8S5S5S6S5S6S5SW3W11W9NW8NW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Smith Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Smith Point Light
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:19 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:46 AM EST     1.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:25 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:11 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:05 PM EST     1.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.10.10.40.711.21.21.10.90.60.30.1-000.20.50.70.9110.80.50.2

Tide / Current Tables for Glebe Point, Great Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Glebe Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:21 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:32 AM EST     1.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:26 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:13 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:51 PM EST     1.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.10.10.40.711.21.21.10.80.60.30.1-000.20.50.8110.90.70.50.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.