Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Island, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:16PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 7:50 PM EDT (23:50 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:18PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 656 Pm Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W late this evening, then becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely early this evening, then a chance of showers late this evening. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 foot late.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..NE winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..S winds 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 656 Pm Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A strong cold front will cross the region this evening. High pressure returns Wednesday and Thursday. A weak cold front crosses the area late Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Island, MD
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location: 37.88, -76.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 221937
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
337 pm edt Tue oct 22 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the region this evening. High pressure
returns Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front crosses the
area over the upcoming weekend, bringing another chance of rain.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
As of 255 pm edt Tuesday...

st from earlier has generally lifted to bkn-ovc CIGS 1200-2500
ft inland and on the ERN shore (except well wnw of ric over the
piedmont where CIGS remain blo 1000 ft)... Sct-bkn higher CIGS in
se va-ne nc. Warmer more humid air has made some progress N into
the fa this afternoon... But substantial clearing has been
reluctant to occur. Shras beginning to spread over more of
wrn central portions now and that will continue far to the ene
this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. A
narrow shallow line of shras crossing the area may contain
brief heavy ra and gusty winds. Svr threat is limited at best.

The shras in the line now moving through wcentral va only have
tops to about 12000 ft... Not expecting much more dramatic
development far E this evening as near term hi res guidance
shows CAPE quite limited.

Cold front through the I 95 corridor by 00z 23 then off the
coast by 04-06z 23. Gusty sse winds ERN portions will last until
the frontal passage. Winds become wnw overnight resulting in
clearing. Lows from 40-45f wnw to the m50s at the immediate
coast.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Friday
As of 225 pm edt Tuesday...

drier (not too much or any cooler) for wed-thu. Sfc hi pres
builds in from the w-sw post-frontal and becomes centered over
the local area Wed night-thu. Highs in the m60s to around 70f
wed... Then on Wednesday, and in the u60s-l70s thu. Lows in the
u30s wnw to around 50f at the immediate coast Wed night.

Models continuing to struggle W wx for the end of the week
(fri). GFS nam quicker W return of moisture from the wsw while
the (00z 22) ECMWF was slower. Went W a blend of the
guidance... Leaning slower W clouds and any pcpn during fri.

Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy (late) W highs mainly in
the m-u60s... L70s se.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 330 pm edt Tuesday...

the GFS and ECMWF still differ greatly in the long term. GFS keeps
an open trough moving across the southern plain into the southeast
us. While, the ECMWF cuts off a upper low across west texas and
northern mexico with a shortwave moving east across the great lakes
and northeast us. Therefore, the GFS was disregarded for the long
term.

Using mostly the ecmwf, chance of precip will be near zero for
Saturday after the passage of a weak cold front. Sfc high pressure
will move in for Saturday with seasonable temperatures (highs in the
60s and lows in the 40s inland to 50 near the coast). Pops were
increased for Sunday (30-40%) as the upper low over texas moves ne
into the western great lakes then into ontario. This will likely
bring showers back into the region as warm southwest flow begins.

The ECMWF then forms an upper ridge along the carolina and ga
coasts, with a sfc high pressure system off the carolina coast for
the beginning of next week. This will keep temperatures mild for the
first half of the week, with highs in the low 70s and lows in the
50s. A slight chance of showers will remain in the forecast for the
beginning of next week as well.

Aviation 20z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 125 pm edt Tuesday...

bkn MVFR-vfr CIGS and sse winds occasionally gusty to 20-25 kt
(esp at the coast) continuing into this evening ahead of an
approaching cold front. An area of shras will be tracking across
the fa... Mainly from 20z 22 to 03z 23. A narrow line of shras
may contain brief gusty winds heavy ra. A short period of
possible ifr CIGS right after the cold front exits pcpn ends
this evening then wnw winds bring drying overnight. High
pressure builds into the area for the midweek period.VFR
conditions wed-fri as sfc hi pres moves across the region.

Flight restrictions (from lowered CIGS vsbys and additional ra)
are possible by Fri night-sat as lo pres tracks into the region
from the sw.

Marine
As of 330 pm edt Tuesday...

afternoon surface analysis shows deep low pressure over the u.P. Of
michigan with a cold front extending southward to the big bend of
florida. Another (much weaker) area of low pressure has formed along
the front across the va nc piedmont. Southeasterly winds have
increased to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots ahead of the
low front. Waves are 1-2 ft and seas are running 3-5 ft.

Southeasterly flow will continue until the front crosses the waters
this evening. A narrow line of showers is noted along the front this
afternoon and hi-res guidance continues to show this feature into
this evening. Winds will be locally enhanced along this line and
could gust 25-30 knots as it passes. Otherwise, winds turn NW 15-20
knots behind the front before slowly decreasing toward daybreak.

Waves will decrease to 1-2 ft but seas will stay near 4-6 ft through
Wednesday mid-morning. Current SCA headlines for the bay extend
until 7am Wednesday morning with the offshore zones in effect until
10am.

High pressure builds in for the remainder of the week.&&

Tides coastal flooding
As of 400 am edt Tuesday...

coastal flood statements and advisories are now in effect for
areas adjacent to the upper bay for the upcoming high tide.

Anomalies have continued to rise early this morning across the
upper bay, coming in around a foot to a foot and a half. This
will allow for locations along the tidal potomac and upper bay
to approach minor flood thresholds later this morning. S to se
winds increasing ahead of a cold front will allow for anomalies
to remain high into the evening tidal cycle, thus additional
coastal flood headlines will likely be needed.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Wednesday for anz630>632-
634-650-652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Alb
short term... Alb mam
long term... Cp
aviation... Alb
marine... Rhr
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44042 - Potomac, MD 12 mi32 min S 18 G 19 66°F 65°F1010.9 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 15 mi50 min SW 6 G 9.9
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 22 mi50 min 2 ft
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 24 mi50 min NNW 13 G 16
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 26 mi56 min SSE 16 G 20 64°F 64°F1008.9 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 26 mi50 min SSE 19 G 21 1010.1 hPa (-0.9)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 33 mi50 min NNW 8 G 16 64°F 65°F1009.2 hPa (+0.4)
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi50 min S 7 G 8.9 66°F 64°F1009.8 hPa (-0.9)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 41 mi80 min SE 1.9 68°F 1010 hPa66°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 44 mi50 min S 14 G 14 67°F 1009.5 hPa (-0.7)
44072 47 mi40 min WSW 9.7 G 9.7 67°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 47 mi50 min S 11 G 14 71°F 66°F1008.5 hPa (-0.8)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 48 mi32 min N 9.7 G 12 61°F 1010.3 hPa
44089 48 mi50 min 65°F4 ft
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 49 mi50 min S 7 G 11

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD21 mi57 minSE 55.00 miLight Rain68°F63°F84%1008.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3SE3E4SE6CalmSE4E6SE3S5CalmS7S5S7S6S7SE85SE9SE8SE9SE10
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--5555N7Calm44CalmNE643NW6W6SW7CalmCalmE3
2 days agoE3E3CalmSE6CalmE3CalmCalmE3NE4NE4NE6NE8E9NE12
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Tide / Current Tables for Smith Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Smith Point Light
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:38 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:35 AM EDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:39 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:03 PM EDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.30.30.40.60.91.11.21.21.10.90.70.50.30.30.40.60.91.21.41.51.41.21

Tide / Current Tables for Great Wicomico River Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Great Wicomico River Light
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:14 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM EDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:15 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:32 PM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.30.30.40.60.911.110.90.70.50.30.30.30.40.70.91.11.31.31.210.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.