Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 2:12 AM   Moonset 12:51 PM

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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 832 Am Pdt Thu May 2 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday afternoon through late Friday night - .
Rest of today - NW winds 15 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots this afternoon. Tonight - W winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Fri - W winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Fri night - W winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Sat - W winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Rain.Sat night - W winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Mon - W winds 10 to 15 knots.

PZZ500 832 Am Pdt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
strong winds persist throughout Friday, with gale force gusts of 40 to 45 knots possible. Strong winds will result in hazardous seas and steep wind waves with significant wave heights reaching 10 to 13 feet in the outer waters. Conditions gradually improve over the weekend and into next week as winds begin to ease. Rain chances begin early Saturday as a trough descends over the region.

FXUS66 KSTO 021905 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1205 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024

Synopsis
Dry and warm weather through Friday with breezy northerly winds.
Active weather returns this weekend as a weather system drops down bringing showers, mountain snow, isolated thunderstorms, gusty winds and colder temperatures.

Things remain on track with high confidence of a pretty strong late spring...winter like storm system for the area this weekend.
Upper level low system will drop south Friday night then exit the area by Sunday afternoon. EC standard anomaly data showing 500 mb heights impressive at a -2 with return interval of 10 to 20 years for this time of the year. Ensemble means in good agreement that the upper low will basically slide south across central California with a good period of upper dynamics. Could be stronger if the low was further west but still some good dynamics with this system. Pretty much a classic winter system orginiating from the Gulf of Alaska with a nice Atmospheric River and PW plume with climo PW values of 150 to 230% above normal. System is a pretty quick hitter so biggest challenge is level of impacts with snow and blowing snow above 5000 feet. NBM probabilities showing bullseye of higher snow right in the I80 corridor with 70% to 80% chance of 8" and about 50% chance of a foot at highest elevations.
Snowfall rates have a chance to exceed an inch an hour in intensity Saturdday afternoon and evening. So with all this the biggest question will be the impacts of this snow and wind. With collaboration with area offices given time of year, sun angle, road and ground temperature and quickness of storm will stick with a winter weather advisory for the event.

In the valley, would expect a band of rain to push across from north to south. NBM QPF probabilities have been pretty consistent for low probs of half an inch and solid chances of quarter of an inch.

High EFI values for cool high temperatures Saturday and Sunday as well with high temperatures dropping a solid 10 to 20 degrees from Friday to Saturday.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)...

Higher confidence above 50% that extended period looks to be farily dry and on the cool side. Cluster analsys showing majority of solutions point to lower 500 mb heights with dry northerly flow. Biggest risk would be mid to late week of some northerly flow looks to set up with general troughing across the Great Basin. How amplified that low gets will determine strength of wind which right now proabilties of 40 mph guest are down around 30% to 40%. WMR



AVIATION

VFR conditions persist across interior NorCal through the forecast period. Gusty north-northwesterly winds increase through the afternoon, with some Valley gusts 20 to 25 kts. Winds then decrease, but remain breezy this evening into the overnight hours.



STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

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Blackslough Landing
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Thu -- 02:35 AM PDT     2.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:07 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:04 AM PDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:08 PM PDT     2.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:51 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:58 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:53 PM PDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Blackslough Landing, San Joaquin River, California, Tide feet

Vulcan Island .5 mi E
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Thu -- 12:15 AM PDT     0.63 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:12 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:46 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:07 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:13 AM PDT     -0.29 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:54 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:20 AM PDT     0.48 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:51 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:23 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:47 PM PDT     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:57 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:40 PM PDT     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Vulcan Island .5 mi E, San Joaquin River, California Current, knots

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