Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Deal Island, MD

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 7:48PM Thursday August 22, 2019 1:32 PM EDT (17:32 UTC) Moonrise 10:44PMMoonset 11:52AM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 1035 Am Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and scattered tstms.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1035 Am Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will approach the waters tonight, then stall over the carolinas on Saturday. High pressure will then settle over the area Saturday into Sunday. Small craft advisories are possible over the southern waters Friday night through Sunday .


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deal Island, MD
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location: 38.13, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 221410
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1010 am edt Thu aug 22 2019

Synopsis
A trough of low pressure will persist across the area today. A
cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday night, then
slowly drops into the area Friday, before stalling along the
virginia-north carolina border Friday night into early Saturday.

The front then pushes into the carolinas later Saturday into
Sunday as high pressure builds north of the region.

Near term through tonight
As of 1000 am edt Thursday...

scattered showers over NE nc continue to diminish this morning,
kept low chance pops in for another hour or so. Short term
guidance continues to hold the convection off for most of the
day with pops starting to increase after 20z. Will be plenty of
sunshine across the area, with high temps in the low to mid 90s.

Spc has outlined the area in a marginal risk for severe weather
today, with damaging winds being the primary threat. Don't
expect a widespread event with a decent cap in place for most of
the day, but dcape values will be around 1000 j kg so some
isolated damaging wind gusts are certainly possible in a few
storms.

Previous discussion.

A subtle shortwave trough is pushing off the mid- atlantic
coast early this morning. Showers tstms accompanied this feature
over the md ERN shore, but this activity has now weakened and
moved offshore. An isolated shower is possible over NE nc
through sunrise. Otherwise, no showers are expected through the
remainder of the morning. Warm and humid early this morning with
temperatures in the mid upper 70s and dewpoints in the upper
60s to low 70s.

A surface trough will remain over the region today. However,
the airmass is expected to remain capped much of the day, so
showers tstms are not expected to arrive in the piedmont until
mid- late aftn where pops are 30-50%, with 15-30% elsewhere.

Strong surface heating will allow temperatures to rise into the
low mid 90s and dewpoints are expected to remain in the 70-75f
range. This will result in heat indices of 98-103f.

A cold front will slowly approach from the NW tonight. A
shortwave trough will move through the region in wsw flow aloft,
and this should allow sct showers tstms to linger into the
evening and early overnight hours. Pops are highest n, 30-50%,
with 20-30% across the s. As similar to the past few days, any
tstms are likely to contain frequent lightning, with the
strongest updrafts capable of collapsing and causing isolated
wind damage. Warm and humid again tonight with lows in the
low mid 70s.

Short term Friday through Saturday
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

the cold front will continue its slow approach from the nw
Friday morning, and then settle into SRN va by Friday aftn.

Current guidance does depict decent surface heating over se
va NE nc, with the front arriving in the aftn. Hence there is
the potential for some strong to marginally severe tstms Friday
aftn across SE va and NE nc. The front then stalls in vicinity
of the va nc border Friday night into early Saturday. The threat
will shift to heavy rain at this point. Showers and embedded
tstms are expected to persist along the boundary, and rainfall
should be rather efficient with a deep warm cloud layer, and
moisture will be plentiful with pw values AOA 2.0". It is still
too early to depict exactly where the heaviest rain will occur,
but there is increasing confidence in locally excessive rainfall
along the boundary, and SE va NE nc are in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall. The latest guidance has the front pushing
into nc Saturday aftn as high pressure builds to the n. Dry
conditions are expected across the n, with 30-50% pops lingering
over far SE va and NE nc.

Highs Friday range from the upper 70s low 80s n, to the
mid upper 80s se. Lows Friday night range from the low mid 60s
n, to the low 70s se, followed by highs Saturday in the upper
70s.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 4 pm edt Wednesday...

cold front will be south of the area Saturday night, however
some showers may linger behind the front (mainly along and south
of the nc state line). High pressure will build in from the n
behind the front bring cooler air to the area. Temperatures
Sunday morning will be in the upper 50s in the va piedmont and
low to mid 60s along and east of i-95. High temperatures will
only manage to reach the low 80s inland and upper 70s along the
coast with the ene flow. Pops will remain in for Sunday (20-30%)
for showers moving onshore from the atlantic ocean.

Models are indicating a low (possibly tropical) forming off the
outer banks early next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a weak
sfc low pressure system moving NE out into the atlantic. Pops
were kept in with the highest towards the coast through
Wednesday as the low passes by. Temperatures will remain on the
mild side as the ene-ne flow continues. Highs will be in the low
to mid 80s with lows in the mid 60s inland to low 70s at the
coast.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
As of 700 am edt Thursday...

isolated showers and tstms are moving through NE nc as of 11z,
but this activity should move E of ecg by 12z. Otherwise,
expectVFR conditions through the morning under a mostly
clear sunny to partly cloudy sky, with a 5-10kt SW wind. Sct-bkn
cu are expected to develop by aftn, with a chc of showers and
tstms later this aftn into the evening ahead of a cold front.

The best chc is from ric- sby at 30-40%, with 20-30% for
phf orf ecg. Brief MVFR ifr vsby is possible in any
showers tstms. The chc for showers tstms will diminish later
tonight.

The cold front settles into SRN va and NRN nc Friday into
Friday night and Saturday morning. Numerous showers and embedded
tstms are expected to develop along the front, with the
potential for degraded flight conditions. High pressure slowly
builds in from the N Saturday night through Monday.

Marine
As of 330 am edt Thursday...

all small craft advisories will expire as scheduled at 4 am
edt. While a few elevated sites may occasionally gust to 20 to
25 knots early this morning, winds seas have largely diminished
below SCA criteria and are expected to continue to decrease
through this morning.

S to SW winds are expected to range from 5 to 15 knots over the
waters this morning through this afternoon. Seas will average
around 2 to 3 feet (up to 4 feet out 20 nm) and waves in the bay
around 1 to 2 feet. A cold front and associated area of low
pressure slowly approach from the NW through today, as a result,
a slight uptick in winds is once again expected later this
evening into the overnight hours. Winds may briefly reach sca
criteria, especially over the bay, from around 00z to 06z. Would
not be shocked to see a few wind gusts to 20 knots at the
typical elevated sites during this time frame, but held off on
any additional advisories due to the marginal and short-lived
nature of this event.

The aforementioned cold front slowly drops south over the
waters Friday through early Saturday. Behind the front, winds
shift to the N and ne. Expect an uptick in NE winds by late
Saturday through Sunday as onshore flow takes hold. As a result
of the onshore flow, seas will also be on the increase during
this period, potentially building to as high as 5 feet (6 feet
out 20 nm). Scas may very well be needed for the second half of
the weekend due to a combination of elevated winds and seas.

Easterly flow likely continues into early next week which will
allow for seas to remain elevated.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz
near term... Ajz cmf
short term... Ajz rhr
long term... Cp
aviation... Ajz
marine... Ajb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 7 mi45 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 26 mi45 min W 1.9 G 2.9
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 27 mi45 min W 2.9 G 6 88°F 83°F1013.7 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 28 mi45 min SE 7 G 8 83°F 1014.8 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 28 mi45 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 31 mi45 min W 8.9 G 12
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 37 mi33 min SW 3.9 G 3.9 85°F 1 ft1015.1 hPa (-0.5)
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 40 mi51 min SW 8 G 11 88°F 84°F1014.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi51 min 1015.8 hPa
44089 44 mi33 min 77°F3 ft

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD23 mi40 minSW 810.00 miFair93°F70°F47%1014 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD24 mi41 minSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy92°F66°F44%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S8S12S9SW8SW8SW8SW5SW9SW6SW6SW5W6W4SW6SW7SW5W3SW5SW6SW4SW5SW6SW8
1 day agoSE8SE5E9E7E7N3CalmW8
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2 days agoS4SW5SE7SE7SE11
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SE5W8Calm3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW3S35

Tide / Current Tables for Chance, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Chance
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Thu -- 12:54 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:53 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:03 PM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.81.11.51.92.12.121.61.20.80.60.50.611.51.92.32.42.32.11.71.3

Tide / Current Tables for Salisbury, Maryland (2 miles below) Current
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Salisbury
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:56 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:45 AM EDT     0.36 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:23 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:50 AM EDT     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:04 PM EDT     0.39 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:28 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.4-0.200.20.30.40.30.1-0.2-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.10.20.30.40.40.20.1-0.1-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.