Monday, January20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tall Timbers, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:16PM Monday January 20, 2020 9:52 AM EST (14:52 UTC) Moonrise 3:27AMMoonset 1:42PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 938 Am Est Mon Jan 20 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Rest of today..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain through the night.
ANZ500 938 Am Est Mon Jan 20 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build eastward from the northern plains during the first half of the week, then move offshore during the second half of the week. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tall Timbers, MD
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location: 38.15, -76.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 201134 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 634 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Cold high pressure builds across the region through midweek. Much colder air spills across the region through Tuesday night . with temperatures slowly moderating for the latter half of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 630 AM EST Monday .

Early morning surface analysis shows strong low pressure well northeast of New England moving away into the Atlantic while 1044mb high pressure builds southeast from the Dakotas toward the region. The resulting pressure gradient over the local area has kept winds around 10mph this morning and temperatures have not fallen as far as previously forecast. Bumped up lows a few degrees due to continued mixing, generally ranging from the low/mid 20s west of I- 95 to mid/upper 20s to the east.

Strong cold air advection continues today, brisk NW winds and temps in the mid to upper 30s result in a raw day across the region despite a mostly sunny sky. Wind chills will average in the mid/upper 20s, even through the afternoon. Bay-streamer clouds are possible downstream (south and southeast) of the Ches bay today as cold, dry air interacts with the relative warmth of the waters. Latest model guidance has trended toward winds not totally decoupling tonight, so have raised overnight lows a few degrees into the upper teens and low 20s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 345 AM EST Monday .

Continued cold and dry Tuesday, with highs remaining below normal. Thickness tools in agreement with cool side of MOS guidance envelope, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 30s despite a mainly clear/sunny sky. Clear and cold once again Tuesday night with early morning lows in the low to mid 20s . to around 30 SE.

Models still show the formation of a cut-off low near the GA/SC coast Tuesday night. However, models remain in good agreement in taking this wave offshore, with cyclogenesis occurring well away from the local area, thus minimizing any sensible weather impacts across the local area.

Behind this wave, modifying sfc high builds over the Mid-Atlantic and northeast CONUS on Wednesday. Thicknesses begin to climb, signaling the start of a moderating temp trend. Slightly warmer Wednesday with highs climbing to near normal in the low to mid 40s, under a mainly sunny sky. Lows Wednesday night will inch up a few degrees as well with generally low/mid 20s expected across the region.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 230 PM EDT Sunday .

Medium range period characterized by dry conditions and gradually moderating temperatures. Rain chances increase by late in the week into the weekend. Forecast period begins with high pressure at the sfc and aloft in place over the region with quiet weather persisting through Thu night. Highs in the 50s Thu/Fri. Lows in the 20s to mid 30s Wed/Thu night, mid 30s to mid 40s Friday night.

Our next weather maker will come from a developing upper trough over the central Plains Wed night and Thursday, with that system then lifting northeast Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Friday/Friday night. Remaining dry Wednesday night through Friday morning, with rain chances ramping up Friday night and Saturday. Kept PoPs in the chance range at this time with typical temporal differences between the deterministic models, though models are reasonably clustered with ensembles for this time range. PWs

Other big story weather-wise will be with quickly moderating temperatures. Pre-frontal warm front will lift across the region over the course of next weekend, with temperatures moderating back toward then above normal Saturday and Sunday (highs in the 50s to low 60s, lows in the 30s and 40s). The attendant sfc cold front approaches and crosses through the area sometime late next weekend . but with the Pacific origins of that airmass, expect temperatures to only fall back to around climo normal. In short, outside of the chilly temperatures in the short term, no chances of wintry weather to be found over the next 10 days.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 630 AM EST Monday .

VFR conditions noted at all terminals as high pressure builds in from the west. North and northwest winds continue across the region with most terminals reporting gusts to 20+ knots early this morning. Clear skies for most of the region today with the exception of ORF and perhaps ECG and SBY where some SCT/BKN bay streamer clouds are possible. CIGs in these areas are forecast to remain above MVFR thresholds with obs generally reporting BKN040 this morning. Winds decrease after sunset but remain out of the north through the end of the period.

Outlook: VFR conditions persist through Wed as cold high pressure builds back across the region.

MARINE. As of 345 AM EST Monday .

High pressure is building in from the NW early this morning, with a cold front now located well S of the region. Strong CAA is resulting in a NNW wind of 20-30kt for the Bay/ocean, and 15- 25kt elsewhere. Seas are 5-6ft N to 6-8ft S, with 3-5ft waves in the Bay. The wind is expected to become N near to around 20kt for the ocean/Bay/Sound, 15-20kt for the lower James, and diminish to 10-15kt for the other rivers today. Seas remain 5-6ft N, to 6-8ft S today, with 3-4ft waves in the Bay. High pressure remains NW of the region tonight, and another push of low-level CAA should maintain a N wind of 15-20kt. High pressure builds N of the region Tuesday into Wednesday, as low pressure develops well off the Southeast Coast. The wind will become NNE with speeds 10-15kt N to 15-20kt srn Bay, and 20-25kt for the ocean S of Cape Henry. This will likely maintain at least 5-6ft seas S, and could remain 6-8ft Tuesday/Wednesday off the nrn Outer Banks. Elsewhere, seas subside to 3-4ft, with 2-3ft waves in the Bay.

SCAs have been extended through 7 am Wednesday for the ocean S of Cape Charles due to high confidence of elevated seas, 7 pm Tuesday for ocean zone 654 and the Sound, 4 pm Tuesday for the lower Bay, 1 pm Tuesday for the middle Bay, 10 am Tuesday for the lower James, 4 am Tuesday for the nrn ocean, and remaining 10 am Monday for the remaining rivers.

High pressure builds over the region Wednesday night into Thursday and slowly slides offshore Friday. Low pressure and an associated cold front pass through the area Friday night into Saturday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ633-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS . MAM NEAR TERM . RHR SHORT TERM . MAM/RHR LONG TERM . MAM AVIATION . RHR MARINE . AJZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 5 mi65 min N 17 G 23
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 14 mi59 min 27°F 40°F1027.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 15 mi53 min 26°F 43°F1026.7 hPa (+3.0)
44042 - Potomac, MD 18 mi35 min NNW 18 G 21 26°F 43°F1026.9 hPa
NCDV2 25 mi59 min 26°F 42°F1027 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 32 mi59 min 28°F 34°F1026.7 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi59 min 29°F 40°F1026.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 44 mi143 min NNW 7 1025 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi35 min NNW 19 G 21 44°F1028.8 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD11 mi60 minNNW 9 G 1910.00 miFair30°F12°F47%1026.5 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD12 mi66 minNNW 6 G 15 miFair27°F12°F54%1027.1 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD16 mi2 hrsNNW 17 G 2410.00 miFair26°F10°F53%1025.7 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA24 mi58 minNW 710.00 miFair27°F12°F56%1027.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS7S5S6SE10S7
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2 days agoN10
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NW8N7N5N6N5CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE3CalmNE3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Coles Point, Virginia
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Coles Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:27 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:55 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:25 AM EST     1.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:41 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:56 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:15 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:02 PM EST     1.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.60.2-0-0.100.40.91.31.71.81.81.51.10.70.30-0.100.40.81.21.51.6

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Mon -- 12:44 AM EST     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:27 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:28 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     0.72 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:19 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:40 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:18 PM EST     -0.95 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:59 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:04 PM EST     0.22 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:46 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.10.20.50.70.70.40.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.8-0.5-0.300.20.2-0.1-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.