Sunday, July25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tall Timbers, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 8:26PM Sunday July 25, 2021 12:08 PM EDT (16:08 UTC) Moonrise 8:57PMMoonset 6:28AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1037 Am Edt Sun Jul 25 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se late. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..NE winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tue night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1037 Am Edt Sun Jul 25 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will lift north of the waters today, as a cold front approaches later tonight before passing through Monday into Monday night. The boundary will stall to the south through midweek as weak high pressure builds toward the region. Another front may approach from the north late in the workweek.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tall Timbers, MD
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location: 38.15, -76.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 251553 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1153 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain offshore for the remainder of the weekend, allowing for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms today. A weak cold front crosses the most of the area on Monday, resulting in scattered to numerous thunderstorms from Monday afternoon through Monday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1130 AM EDT Sunday .

The latest wx analysis shows upper ridging anchored over the central/srn Plains, keeping a WNW flow aloft in place across the local area. Sfc high pressure has settled well off the Carolina coast, with an area of low pressure off the east coast of FL. The low level flow today is more from the SSW (compared to the SSE winds yesterday). Skies are variably cloudy, generally more cloudy over the eastern shore and partly to mostly sunny elsewhere with temperatures in the upper 70s/around 80F on the eastern shore and into the lower 80s most other places.

A few isolated showers developed over the Bay and passed through the MD/VA eastern shore over the past few hrs but have now dissipated and mainly dry wx is expected through 18-19Z as showers/tstms gradually develop off to our W across the mountains aided by a weak sfc trough. Isolated to widely scattered tstms are then progged to hold together while pushing ESE into the Piedmont (mainly the NW zones). Most of the high res guidance keeps the convection confined to the NW of RIC, but will maintain ~20% PoPs to include metro RIC and to portions of E-central VA as well. SPC has placed our far northern zones into a Marginal risk for severe for the rest of today/tonight, primarily for strong/damaging winds. The overall shear is less than yesterday however, and expect most of the stronger storms to stay N over the NE CONUS and northern mid-Atlantic. The low- end severe threat should diminish by 9-11 PM with the loss of surface heating. However, an approaching cold front and a nocturnal southwesterly ~30kt 925mb jet may be enough to keep at least isolated showers (and perhaps a tstm or two) going (mainly N of I-64 and E of I-95) through much of the night. Have 15-35% PoPs through 12z Mon to account for this. Early morning lows Monday AM range from the upper 60s to low/mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 330 AM EDT Sunday .

For Monday, a WNW-NW flow aloft continues to prevail across the region as the above mentioned weak cold front continues to approach from the NW and drops through the local area late in the day and overnight into Tue morning. Meanwhile, deep-layer moisture continues to increase across the area, with PW values rising to 2.0-2.4" across the SE two-thirds of the area by Monday aftn. In addition, a shortwave trough aloft is progged to cross the area late Monday into Monday night.

Instability parameters become fairly impressive by 18z Mon (1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) as temperatures rise to around 90F with low-mid 70s dew points. However, the models continue to forecast only minimal shear. Nevertheless, suspect that there will be some chance for at least isolated strong to severe storms (main threat will be localized damaging wind gusts) Mon aftn/evening. It appears the greater threat may be locally heavy rain/flooding given the above mentioned PWs and also the relatively slow expected motion (MBE velocities are only 10-15kt from Mon aftn-Mon evening as per 00z NAM/GFS). Greatest threat for localized flooding appears to be across southern VA and into NE NC (main concern would be the urban areas of Hampton Roads given relatively high FFGs elsewhere). Even though it is at the end of its forecast period (48-h), it is worth noting that the 00z HREF has 30-50% probabilities of 3"/3 hours in these areas from 21z Mon-00z Tue. WPC has maintained a MRGL Risk for Excessive Rainfall from Mon-Mon night across most of the area. Have nudged the highest PoPs (60-70% . from 18z Mon-06z Tue) a bit to the south given the trend in the 00z/25 guidance. Have chc PoPs (mainly during the aftn/evening) across nrn zones.

Tstms will be most numerous during the aftn/evening (with the highest coverage along and S of I-64). These tstms are progged to gradually move SE during the evening and overnight. Convection will wane/exit the area during the latter part of Mon night. Forecast highs Mon are in the upper 80s to around 90F, with lows in the upper 60s-low 70s Monday night. The front stalls/weakens across NC on Tue. Will keep high chc PoPs across the south Tue aftn, with a slight chc of aftn tstms into most of central/E-central VA. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 330 AM EDT Sunday .

The middle to late portion of this week will be characterized by near to slightly above normal temperatures and seasonally moderate levels of humidity, as the heat ridge remains anchored in place across the central CONUS with continued W-NW flow aloft across the local area. Timing of rain chances in this type of pattern will be dependent on timing and location of numerous shortwave disturbances in the flow aloft (and a cold front that potentially approaches by late next week). Overall, will have only 10-20 PoPs Wed-Thu, with PoPs 20-30% for Fri as the next cold front moves through, with 10-20% PoPs Sat. The timing of the front is somewhat uncertain so a faster solution (like the 00z GFS/GEM) could lead to higher PoPs than currently forecast as early as Thu evening/Thu night. The slower ECMWF solution would imply that the highest PoPs hold off until Fri aftn. Summerlike heat and humidity is expected with highs 90-95F and lows mainly 70-75F Wed-Fri. Sat looks a little cooler with less humidity at this time.

AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 630 AM EDT Sunday .

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 12z TAF period with SSW-SW winds increasing to 9-13kt with gusts to around 20kt by afternoon. Otherwise, any isolated showers/tstms are expected to remain NW of RIC and SBY this afternoon, but could approach SBY (and even RIC) by this evening. However, PoPs are only 20-30% at RIC/SBY this evening, so will hold off on mentioning pcpn in the TAFs. Isolated showers (and perhaps a tstm or two) are possible tonight at SBY, while PoPs are no higher than 20% at the VA/NC terminals. Prevailing conditions likely remain VFR through tonight.

Outlook . The chc for afternoon/evening showers/tstms increases to 30-60% on Monday, as moisture pools ahead of an approaching frontal system. Mainly VFR conditions Tuesday with isolated to widely scattered showers and tstms potentially bringing brief degraded flight conditions in the afternoon and evening. The chc for afternoon and evening showers and tstms is 20% or less by Wednesday and Thursday.

MARINE. As of 300 AM EDT Sunday .

Try as I might, can't seem to find gusts aoa 20 kts across the Ches Bay except from Tangier Isl on north. Latest model guid not as bullish with 20 kt gusts either, so dropped the SCA on the Bay south of Windmill Point. Will leave the SCA up for ANZ603 though.

Minimal SCA's cont for the nrn cstl waters, expecting gusts arnd 25 kts and 4-5 ft seas later today/tonite.

Diminishing winds Mon as the pressure gradient relaxes. A weak front approaches then crosses the region Mon aftrn into Tues. The boundary lingers/washes out just south of the local area Tues into Wed. Sub- SCA conditions expected thru mid week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . ERI/LKB SHORT TERM . ERI/LKB LONG TERM . ERI/LKB AVIATION . ERI MARINE . MPR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 5 mi51 min WSW 7 G 12
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 14 mi51 min WSW 12 G 15 79°F 78°F1015 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 15 mi51 min SW 12 G 15 78°F 82°F1014.4 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 18 mi45 min SW 16 G 21 77°F 1016.2 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi51 min SSW 8.9 G 15 77°F 1014.5 hPa
NCDV2 25 mi51 min SW 7 G 11 81°F 81°F1013.8 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 30 mi39 min SSW 9.7 G 14 77°F 82°F1 ft1015.4 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi51 min SSW 9.9 G 12 79°F 82°F1014.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 44 mi99 min W 4.1 76°F 1014 hPa69°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi39 min SSW 14 G 18 77°F 81°F2 ft1016.8 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD11 mi76 minSW 1010.00 miFair78°F68°F71%1014.7 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD12 mi74 minSSW 910.00 miFair77°F68°F74%1015.2 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD16 mi77 minSSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F69°F69%1014.6 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA24 mi74 minSSW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F72°F75%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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1 day ago----E8NE5NE6NE4NE3CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmSW4S3S4SW5
2 days ago----------------------------------------Calm3----

Tide / Current Tables for Coles Point, Virginia
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Coles Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:40 AM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:09 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:15 PM EDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:16 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.622.32.321.61.10.70.3-00.10.511.51.92.11.91.61.10.70.30.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Sun -- 12:18 AM EDT     0.72 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:09 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:12 AM EDT     -1.15 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:14 PM EDT     0.41 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:30 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:06 PM EDT     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:43 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.40.1-0.4-0.8-1-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.20.10.40.40.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.20.1

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