Wednesday, January27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tall Timbers, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:25PM Wednesday January 27, 2021 9:05 PM EST (02:05 UTC) Moonrise 4:15PMMoonset 6:37AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 643 Pm Est Wed Jan 27 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Thursday...
.gale warning in effect from 6 am est Thursday through late Thursday night...
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt... Increasing to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 3 ft late. Scattered rain or snow showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt...diminishing to 25 kt late. Waves 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Snow likely through the day. Rain likely.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain likely in the morning, then a chance of rain. A chance of snow through the night.
ANZ500 643 Pm Est Wed Jan 27 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure may impact the waters tonight and Thursday. High pressure will return late in the week into the first part of the weekend. Another storm system may impact the region late in the weekend into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tall Timbers, MD
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location: 38.15, -76.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 280018 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 718 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure tracks south of the local area tonight into Thursday morning. High pressure builds across the region for the end of the week. Another low pressure system will affect the region Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. As of 405 PM EST Wednesday .

Remnant inversion from CAD wedge just starting to break down. However, poor mixing is allowing pesky stratocu to hang on across the lower Mid- Atlantic region this aftn. Latest surface analysis reveals sfc low pressure pushing offshore of the Carolina coast. To the west, shortwave trough continues to slide E-SE across the mid-south. Finally, 1038+mb sfc continues to slide southeast from the northern plains across the midwest.

PoPs at slight chance or less through midnight. Some very light rain or sprinkles possible across NE NC for the balance of the day. Otherwise, a brief lull in pcpn this evening.

Shortwave will push across the area late tonight and into Thursday morning. Initially expect mainly rain, w/overrunning moisture/DPVA ahead of the approaching system. Its that potent upper level trough that will be the key to snow developing across the area late tonight. The system will have to generate cold air through dynamics (dynamic cooling . or a rain to snow scenario).

Overall, 12z/27 model trends have nudged towards a heavier QPF solution overnight. CAMs are nearly unanimous with depicting decent axis of frontogenetic/adiabatic omega pushing across the area after midnight. Hv accordingly nudged snow accumulations up along and south of US-40, with a general 1-3" across the area away from the coast, w/up to 2 inches farther east from Isle of Wight over to VA Beach/Back Bay area. Light snow or just flurries expected over most central/nrn portions of the FA. As previously noted, majority of accums will occur on grassy and elevated surfaces and car tops. Given the sfc temps and amount of strong dynamic cooling that will be required to realize the GFS Para numbers, have tempered that a bit and stayed closer to NAM/ECMWF. Other issue will be increasing winds, with NW winds ramping up to 20-30 mph as low deepens Thu morning. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the coastal communities from the eastern shore to Currituck, including VA independent cities of Hampton/Norfolk/VB.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 405 PM EST Wednesday .

Low pres exits quickly Thu morning w/ lingering pcpn at the coast ending. NNW winds will be breezy/windy in its wake as clearing occurs Gusts to 40-50 mph are expected. highest most likely at the coast. Cold Thu w/ highs not too far from 40F . wind chills mainly in the 20s.

Quieter wx Thu night through Saturday. With shortwave ridging aloft continuing to pivot south into the area, ushering in markedly cooler/drying airmass across the region. Look for early morning lows in the upper teens to 20s . with highs only in the upper 30s-low 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 355 PM EST Tuesday .

Unsettled weather pattern looks to continue into the medium range with the potential for another storm system to impact the area for the second half of the weekend into early next week. High pressure near the Hudson Bay will ridge southward into the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night with stacked low pressure over the central CONUS. A CAD wedge looks likely to setup across the region on Sunday as high pressure continues to bring cool/dry air into the region east of the higher Appalachian terrain. The primary low pressure area will weaken and slowly lift into the Ohio Valley Sunday night with new low pressure taking shape across the eastern Carolinas in a typical 'Miller B' cyclone evolution. The coastal low will become the dominant feature by Monday morning. Guidance is in relatively good agreement regarding the overall evolution but significant differences remain with respect to thermal profiles and timing. For now, will show a chance of light snow Sunday morning with a rain/snow mix spreading northward during the day as warmer marine air comes into the area on the NW side of the strengthening coastal low. The low will be slow to move away from the area Monday into the overnight. Colder air will eventually come in as the low pulls away from the coast Monday night/Tuesday morning but depth of available moisture and chance for further frozen precip is uncertain at this time. ECMWF ensembles probs for 3" accumulation have increased to 60- 80% for the climatologically favored Piedmont and northern I-95 corridor.

High pressure builds into the region behind the low Tuesday night into Wednesday with a return to drier weather.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 715 PM EST Wednesday .

Low level clouds linger this evening with primarily VFR CIGs (4,000-5,000 ft) except in the far S around ECG where MVFR CIGs are present (2,500-3,000 ft). Low pres approaches the FA tonight, crossing south of the area and exiting quickly offshore through midday Thursday. Additional flight restrictions tonight due to low CIGs and mixed pcpn (RA/SN - becoming SN). -RA could start as early as 05-06z before spreading in coverage from W to E and before changing over to SN. Primarily MVFR CIGs overnight with IFR CIGs possible in the far south (ECG) from around 08-12z. VIS will be the main issue due to the SN with IFR/LIFR VIS around 1/2-1 SM likely at PHF/ORF/ECG (and possible at RIC) late tonight into the early morning. NNE winds 5-10 kt will become N overnight and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt inland (RIC) and 15-20 kt with gusts 20-25 kt near the coast (ORF/PHF/ECG/SBY). Winds become NNW Thursday with VFR conditions returning by late morning/early afternoon. Winds remain breezy/windy through the day at 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt inland and 18-25 kt with gusts to 35 kt along the coast and at SBY. VFR conds to prevail Thu night- Sat night.

MARINE. As of 415 PM EST Wednesday .

Late this aftn, weak high pressure was centered over the area, providing northerly winds 5-15 kt. Seas were 2-3 ft, with waves of 1-2 ft.

Low pressure is still progged to deepen, as it tracks across the Carolinas tonight, before exiting quickly out to sea during the latter part of Thu morning (and through the remainder of the day on Thu). The low will rapidly intensify shortly after it moves off the coast. N winds increase to ~20 kt by around 06z Thu on the bay/ocean. Then, by late Wed night into Thu morning, winds become NNW and will increase to 25-35 kt (highest over the srn coastal waters) in the wake of the storm system. The strongest winds will occur from Thu morning through Thu evening before diminishing slightly late Thu night. Gusts 35-40 kt will be common for the Ches Bay/Currituck Sound/Coastal Waters/Lower James River, and around 30 kt for the upper rivers during this time. So, Gale Warnings are now in effect for the ocean/bay/Lower James/Currituck Sound into/through Thu evening or through late Thu night. A secondary (fairly strong) CAA surge arrives late Thu night/Fri morning with robust (850 mb temps are progged to bottom out between -15 and -17C N of Cape Charles). CAA continues during the day on Fri. This will result in at least the continuation of solid/strong SCA conditions, with a decent chc of gale gusts north of Cape Charles (mainly from 12-21z Fri). Will hold off on extending the warnings, given that it would be more than 48 hours out. Additionally, cannot rule out some light freezing spray over the coastal waters N of Parramore Island late Thu night/Fri morning. NW or N winds will slowly diminish Fri night into Sat morning. Winds should finally fall below SCA thresholds by late Sat morning. Seas are expected to top out between 7-10 ft with waves on the Bay 4-5 ft (perhaps 6 ft at the mouth).

HYDROLOGY. Flood Warning continues for the Meherrin River at Lawrenceville. Additional flood warnings may be needed later this week along the Nottoway River, and will need to monitor Stony Creek, and Sebrell.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for MDZ021>025. NC . Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for NCZ017-102. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Thursday for NCZ012. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Thursday for NCZ013>017-030>032. VA . Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for VAZ095- 098>100-525. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Thursday for VAZ065-066-079-087-088-092. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Thursday for VAZ093-095>098. MARINE . Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632-650-652- 654. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Friday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ633-638.

SYNOPSIS . MAM NEAR TERM . MAM SHORT TERM . ALB/MAM LONG TERM . RHR AVIATION . RMM MARINE . ERI/TMG HYDROLOGY .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44042 - Potomac, MD 18 mi29 min NNE 16 G 18 40°F 41°F1019.5 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 30 mi29 min NNE 9.7 G 12 39°F 41°F999.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 44 mi35 min Calm 37°F 1019 hPa29°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD11 mi12 minNNE 510.00 miFair42°F29°F60%1019.2 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD12 mi10 minN 010.00 miOvercast37°F27°F65%1020.3 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD16 mi4.2 hrsNNE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F30°F54%1018.6 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA24 mi10 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy37°F31°F80%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3N3NW3NW3W5W5W5W5SW5NW3----NW63N7
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1 day agoNE7NE8NE9NE7E7NE7NE8NE5NE5N4NE5N53NE5N4CalmCalmCalmW3W3NW4W3Calm5
2 days agoCalmCalmS5S5CalmS3CalmCalmNE3E3CalmE3E7E5E5NE7E6E6NE6NE5CalmNE6NE4E7

Tide / Current Tables for Coles Point, Virginia
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Coles Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:04 AM EST     1.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:43 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:10 PM EST     1.78 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:39 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.51.410.60.20-00.10.511.41.71.81.71.410.60.2-0-0.10.10.51

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Wed -- 12:16 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:53 AM EST     -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:37 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:17 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:07 AM EST     0.68 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:05 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:12 PM EST     -1.05 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:56 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:09 PM EST     0.26 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.2-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.3-0.10.20.50.70.60.40-0.4-0.7-0.9-1-1-0.8-0.6-0.300.3

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