Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tall Timbers, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 8:00PM Sunday August 18, 2019 5:31 PM EDT (21:31 UTC) Moonrise 8:52PMMoonset 8:04AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 436 Pm Edt Sun Aug 18 2019
Rest of this afternoon..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms through the day. A chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day. A chance of tstms. Showers likely through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 436 Pm Edt Sun Aug 18 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over the atlantic will control the weather pattern through Monday. A trough will approach the waters by midweek. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tall Timbers, MD
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location: 38.15, -76.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 181936
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
336 pm edt Sun aug 18 2019

Synopsis
Weak high pressure builds into the region tonight into Monday
and settles off the coast Tuesday. A weak trough passes through
the area Tuesday night.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
As of 335 pm edt Sunday...

weak low pressure is tracking off the coast this aftn, with an
otherwise rather nebulous pressure pattern over the mid-
atlantic. There are a few areas of isolated convection, mainly
over the piedmont and md ERN shore. Temperatures this aftn area
in the upper 80s to low 90s, with mid 80s at the immediate
coast, and dewpoints are primarily in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Any convection should dissipate this evening, with mostly clear
conditions expected tonight as weak high pressure slides across
the southeast conus. Warm and humid overnight with lows of
70-75f.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Wednesday
As of 335 pm edt Sunday...

Monday through Tuesday will largely be dominated by mid and
upper level ridging and weak high pressure centered off the
southeast coast. Hot and humid conditions develop as 850mb
temperatures rise to ~20c Monday and Tuesday, and this should
support high temperatures in the low mid 90s (upper 80s at the
coast) both days. Dewpoints potentially remain 70-75f during
peak heating resulting in heat indices of 100-105f. Morning lows
will generally be 70-75f. Pops are 20% at most Monday, and
primarily confined to the piedmont and interior SE va NE nc.

A subtle mid-level trough approaches from the wnw later Tuesday
aftn into Tuesday night. Pops increase to 20-30% W Tuesday
aftn, and 20% or less e, followed by 30-40% pops N Tuesday
evening and 20-30% s. 18 12z nam GFS each show the airmass
destabilizing Tuesday aftn with strong surface heating and rich
low-level moisture, although the NAM is quite more robust with
the amount of instability. There is a low probability of some
stronger tstms (mainly n). This is conditional on tstms
developing upstream and feeding off the downstream buoyancy.

Otherwise, continued warm and humid Tuesday night with lows in
the low mid 70s. Hot and humid conditions continue Wednesday as
there is little change in the airmass behind the trough. 850mb
temperatures are still ~19c, so highs should at least be in the
low 90s (upper 80s at the coast). Dewpoints remain in the low
70s resulting in heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100f.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 335 pm Sunday...

a potent area of low pressure (sfc-aloft) tracks across quebec
thu- Thu night while the trailing cold front slowly approaches
the region from the nw. As the cold front approaches the region
by late thu, expect organized convection to develop across
northern western zones Thu aftn and move to the E SE during the
evening-overnight. Tstms are forecast to peak in
intensity coverage during the late aftn- evening, but will
likely persist through early Fri am. Convection likely impacts
at least the NRN two-thirds of the CWA from Thu aftn- Thu night.

As a result, raised pops to 60% across va md, while keeping
pops of 30-50% across NE nc. Model consensus has the front
stalling across SRN va by 12z fri, although the 12z 18 GFS is
forecasting the front to clear the area by this time. The cold
front potentially stalls (or very slowly moves southward) from
fri-next weekend. This happens as ridging over the WRN atlantic
tries to gradually build back westward. If the front stalls or
slowly moves across SRN portions of the CWA from Fri through the
weekend, this would lead to continued chances of scattered
aftn-evening convection across SRN va NE nc. Northern portions
of the CWA likely remain dry next weekend (or see only isolated,
diurnally-driven showers tstms) as sfc high pressure over the
great lakes northeast tries to build toward the region.

Highs mainly in the low 90s on thu, cooling into the mid 80s
for most areas by Fri (mid 80s last through the weekend).

Forecast lows are mainly in the low-mid 70s on thu, with mid-
upper 60s inland around 70f near the coast from Fri through mon.

Aviation 20z Sunday through Friday
As of 140 pm edt Sunday...

weak low pressure is pushing NE off the coast as of 18z. There
is very limited coverage of showers tstms and this trend should
continue through the aftn. Hence, there is a very low
probability of a direct impact to a TAF site andVFR conditions
are expected to prevail. The wind will shift from E SE this
evening to S SW overnight as the low pulls well away from the
coast. Mostly clear conditions are expected tonight, with a low
probability of fog or stratus at sby. High pressure prevails off
the coast Monday, with a low probability (20% or less) of an
aftn evening shower or tstm.

A trough will track across the area late Tuesday aftn into
Tuesday evening bringing a 20-40% chc of showers tstms. The chc
for showers tstms lessens Wednesday, and then increases Thursday
as a cold front approaches from the nw. The potential for
showers tstms could linger into Friday if the cold front slows
down or stalls over the region.

Marine
As of 335 pm edt Sunday...

weak low pressure pulling away from the nc coast this
afternoon, leading to variable winds ~5-10 knots across the
southern bay coastal waters. Elsewhere, winds are generally from
the SE 5-10 knots. Waves are 1 ft in the bay and seas 2-3 ft.

Seas build to 3-4 ft S through this evening.

Low pressure will continue to move away to the NE this evening
with winds becoming westerly for a few hours overnight in its
wake. Southerly flow will resume by Monday as the low moves
farther into the atlantic. South and southwest flow 5-10 knots
will continue through Tuesday afternoon before the gradient
begins to tighten ahead of an approaching front. Waves will run
1-2 ft with seas 2-3 ft through mid week.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz tmg
near term... Ajz
short term... Ajz tmg
long term... Eri
aviation... Ajz
marine... Rhr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 5 mi44 min SE 11 G 13
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 14 mi50 min E 9.9 G 12 85°F 83°F1014.5 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 15 mi44 min SE 12 G 14 85°F 85°F1014.3 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi44 min S 13 G 14 82°F 1015.5 hPa
NCDV2 25 mi50 min ESE 11 G 12 87°F 89°F1013.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 32 mi50 min S 7 G 8.9 85°F 86°F1015.5 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi50 min SSE 8.9 G 12 89°F 83°F1014.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 44 mi122 min SE 4.1 88°F 1015 hPa77°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD11 mi99 minSE 610.00 miFair93°F72°F50%1014.9 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD12 mi1.8 hrsE 710.00 miFair90°F69°F52%1015.9 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD16 mi1.7 hrsSSE 1110.00 miA Few Clouds88°F73°F63%1015.1 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA24 mi97 minESE 510.00 miFair91°F73°F56%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE9
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S7S6S5S3S4CalmSW3S5S6SW5W4CalmCalmCalmS54S6S8S7SE7SE6SE5
1 day agoE5E8SE63E3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W4E3SW5S6SW8CalmS6S5S4
2 days agoE8E8E8E5CalmE6N3NE7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE54NE5NE8E6N5NE44SE73

Tide / Current Tables for Coles Point, Virginia
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Coles Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:45 AM EDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:48 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:07 PM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:05 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.511.41.8221.81.40.90.60.30.20.40.71.21.61.921.91.51.10.70.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Sun -- 01:40 AM EDT     0.49 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:13 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:14 AM EDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 09:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:27 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:21 PM EDT     0.44 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:56 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:33 PM EDT     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 09:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.40.50.30.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.5-0.10.20.40.40.2-0-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.