Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tall Timbers, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:37PM Saturday July 4, 2020 7:53 AM EDT (11:53 UTC) Moonrise 7:25PMMoonset 4:04AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 737 Am Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 737 Am Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak backdoor boundary will stall southwest of the waters today and it will weaken tonight into Sunday. High pressure over the atlantic will control the weather pattern for the early and middle portion of next week. Low pressure will pass by to the south during this time.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tall Timbers, MD
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location: 38.15, -76.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 040752 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 352 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak back door cold front will drop across the area today, before dissipating south of the area late in the weekend. High pressure will be with us early next week, before more unsettled conditions potentially return for the middle and end of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 350 AM EDT Saturday .

Early this morning, a back door cold front was dropping through NE portions of the CWA, producing only an isolated shower. Otherwise, the sky was clear to partly cloudy over the area with temps ranging through the 70s into the lower 80s.

That front will drop S and SW across the area during today, with winds shifting to the NNE behind the boundary. Hi-res guidance continues to show the potential for isolated to sctd showers and tstms this aftn into early this evening, mainly over inland/Piedmont locations. Weak lapse rates aloft and 25 kt or less of shear should keep any storms that form from becoming too strong. However, briefly heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds are possible in the stronger cores that manage to form. PoPs generally in the 20-40% range. High temps will be in the lower to mid 90s inland/Piedmont, with mid to upper 80s for the eastern shore and immediate coast. PoPs decrease after sunset with only a 15-30% PoP lingering over the WSW counties until just after midnight. Otherwise, mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 350 AM EDT Saturday .

Heights increase aloft on Sun and Mon, as expansive ridging over the central CONUS moves eastward. Meanwhile, low pressure develops over the Gulf Coast states. Relative greatest chance for any showers/storms will exist over SW portions of the area Sun aftn into early Sun evening. Highs on Sun will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Lows Sun night in the upper 60s to lower 70s. More of the same is in store for Mon, with a chance for sctd aftn/evening showers and tstms inland/Piedmont, and lesser chances near the coast. Very warm again (and more humid) on Mon with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 350 PM EDT Friday .

The period begins Monday night into Tuesday with an upper ridge slowly sliding offshore as an upper low traverses across the Deep South. This upper low gradually pushes ewd Wednesday into Thursday, with the global models either having this feature moving across GA/SC Wednesday then off the Carolina Coast Thursday (03/12z ECMWF/CMC), or moving from the Tennessee Valley Wednesday to the central Appalachians Thursday (03/12z GFS). Global ensemble guidance generally shows near average 500mb heights (with a positive anomaly from the Great Lakes to ern Canada), and a slightly negative MSLP anomaly in vicinity of the Southeast coast. Global deterministic models and ensemble guidance trends toward a trough in vicinity of the East Coast by the end of the week, but individual details are quite different amongst individual guidance. Forecast PoPs are generally less than 15% NE to 30-40% SE Tuesday, ~20% NE to 40-50% SW Wednesday, 20-30% NE to ~40% SW Thursday, and ~20% NE to 30-40% SW Friday. Temperatures Tuesday through Friday are forecast to be near seasonal averages, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s (mid 80s at the immediate coast) and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 235 AM EDT Saturday .

Mainly VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites today into Sun morning. However, some MVFR or even IFR VSBYs from fog will be possible by early Sun morning. Expect SCT to BKN CU at the TAF sites later this morning into early this evening, with isolated to sctd showers and tstms possible. A brief drop to an MVFR CIG and/or VSBY will be possible with any storm. W/NW winds will become N late this morning, then NE for the aftn at 5-10 kt.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions will prevail Sun and Mon, but isolated to sctd showers/storms will be possible in the aftn into early evening that may result in brief flight restrictions.

MARINE. As of 235 AM EDT Saturday .

Backdoor cold front moving south across the Delmarva this morning will shift winds into the NNE at 10-15 kts. Seas increase to btwn 2-3 ft with 1-2 ft waves.

High pressure returns for early next week with winds shifting back to the ssw by Sun nite at less than 15 kts. Seas 2-3 ft.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . TMG NEAR TERM . TMG SHORT TERM . RHR/TMG LONG TERM . AJZ AVIATION . TMG MARINE . MPR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 5 mi59 min NNE 5.1 G 7
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 14 mi59 min N 4.1 G 6 80°F 83°F1011.6 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 15 mi59 min NNW 5.1 G 6 78°F 82°F1011.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi59 min NNW 12 G 14 1012.2 hPa
NCDV2 25 mi59 min Calm G 1.9 76°F 81°F1011.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 30 mi35 min NNE 14 G 16 80°F 80°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 32 mi59 min N 4.1 G 5.1 79°F 83°F1011.5 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi59 min NNE 7 G 9.9 77°F 83°F1012 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 44 mi143 min Calm 1011 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi29 min N 7.8 G 9.7 82°F1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD11 mi60 minN 010.00 miFair80°F72°F76%1011.3 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD16 mi61 minWNW 39.00 miFair78°F73°F87%1011.5 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA24 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair73°F73°F100%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW43NW5NW6NW4NW5W7SW8W5SW8W6W5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmN3NW3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalm3NW4NE65NW35--NW654NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmW3W44NW4
2 days agoNE3NE4NE3NE6NE7E6NE4CalmNE8E6S8SE4CalmCalmE3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Coles Point, Virginia
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Coles Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:57 AM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:33 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:34 PM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:28 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.32.42.21.71.30.80.40.100.30.81.31.71.91.91.61.10.70.40.20.20.41

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Sat -- 01:40 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:44 AM EDT     -1.16 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:26 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:38 AM EDT     0.29 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:31 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:13 PM EDT     -0.66 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:44 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:28 PM EDT     0.78 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.3-0.2-0.6-0.9-1.1-1.2-1-0.8-0.5-0.10.20.30.1-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.20.10.50.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.