Wednesday, January29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cobb Island, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:27PM Wednesday January 29, 2020 6:32 AM EST (11:32 UTC) Moonrise 10:01AMMoonset 10:01PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 339 Am Est Wed Jan 29 2020
Rest of the overnight..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Showers likely.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain through the day, then a chance of showers through the night. A chance of snow showers after midnight.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 339 Am Est Wed Jan 29 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build over the northern great lakes during the middle of the week as a cold front drops south from new england and low pressure passes well to the south near georgia. Small craft advisory conditions may be possible on Sunday behind a departing coastal low.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cobb Island, MD
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location: 38.22, -76.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 291120 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 620 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds east through Friday. Low pressure lifts northeast along the coast late Friday into Saturday before moving off to the northeast of the local area into Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 345 AM Wednesday .

Latest analysis indicates a broad area of sfc high pressure over Ontario, ridging SE into the OH Valley and the mid-Atlc/SE CONUS. Aloft, a broad upper level ridge is in place from the SE CONUS to the lower OH Valley. Similar to what occurred yesterday morning at this time, clouds over the N/NE 1/2 of the CWA are not being well forecast by any of the models. Thus, have gone mostly cloudy over the NE 1/2 of the CWA through much of the morning into early aftn. Farther S, mainly clear skies will become partly cloudy as mid/high clouds spread NE from the TN Valley. Highs today will mostly range in the mid to upper 40s.

Becoming mostly clear tonight over the N/NE as sfc high pressure builds ESE twds New England. Partly to mostly cloudy SW. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 20s N/NE to the upper 20s/lower 30s S.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 345 AM EST Wednesday .

Surface high pressure from ern Canada N of the Great Lakes will extend S into the local area Wednesday/Thursday as low pressure tracks by (well) to the S from the Gulf of Mexico to FL. Forecast PoPs are aob 10% Wednesday/Thursday. Partly cloudy conditions are expected Wednesday, and then Expect a lot of clouds on Thu as a secondary nrn stream shortwave trough tracks across the region, with both the NAM/GFS depicting plenty of mid- level moisture (800-500mb) along with more of a NE low- level flow as high pressure shifts toward New England. Highs will again mostly be in the 40s though likely reach ~50F in NE NC, and the far NW Piedmont could remain in the upper 30s/lower 40s Weak surface high pressure settles over the region Thursday night. Clouds decrease with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions expected. Lows range from the mid/upper 20s N to the low/mid 30s SE where light NE flow persists. High pressure slides offshore Friday as low pressure organizes and lifts NE over the Southeast CONUS. Given a fairly progressive pattern and support from the EPS/GEFS probabilities for some QPF between 18Z/Fri and 00Z/Sat, have sped up the arrival of chc PoPs Fri aftn by a few hrs over southern VA and NE NC where overrunning moisture spreads N. Will have PoPs to 30-50% southern 1/2 of the area (keeping it dry over the N/NE). Skies will start off partly- mostly sunny Fri but cloud up fairly quickly from Sw to NE. Increasing clouds with high temperatures ranging from the mid- upper 40s NW to the low 50s SE.

The main rain event will be Fri night, and with enough model agreement amongst the 00Z/29 suite of models, have raised PoPs to categorical over far SE VA/NE NC and will have likely PoPs for most of the remainder of the CWA as the sfc low lifts NE to a position off the southern NC or SC coast by 06Z/Sat. Still appears that cold air will be lacking . so p-type appears to be mostly RA with lows Fri night just above 32F across Louisa/Fluvanna Counties and in the mid-upper 30s central/eastern VA/MD eastern shore and in the lower 40s far SE VA/NE NC. Total QPF through 12Z/Sat will range from around 1.00" over NE NC and coastal SE VA to <0.25" over the NW zones. The 00Z/29 deterministic GFS is an outlier at spreading as much QPF well to the NW into the Piedmont as compared to the consensus and has been mostly disregarded.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 345 AM EST Wednesday .

Latest 00Z/29 models and ensembles have trended a little closer together regarding the continued track of the coastal storm system Sat morning and beyond. At ~12Z/Sat, the sfc low is expected to be located just off the eastern NC coast and the GEFS has intensified the sfc low to similar values as the EPS and ECMWF. The low then increases forward speed to the NE, rapidly intensifies, and moves well off the Delmarva coast Sat aftn, followed by the associated upper trough axis crossing the area Sat night-Sun AM. With flow expected to shift to the W later Sat, highs should warm well into the 40s N and NW to the lower 50s S (potentially could even be warmer than this over NE NC). Have decreasing PoPs on Sat as the sfc low moves offshore of the region and the best deep- layer moisture shifts to our east. As the aforementioned upper level trough crosses the region Sat night- Sun, scattered showers are expected, with the highest PoPs across ern zones. While the air aloft trends colder overnight, sfc temperatures will struggle to fall much Sat night, so expecting p-type to remain in the form of RA for the most part (will have a RA/SN shower mix over the far NW late). Dry/seasonable on Sun as high pressure settles over the Gulf of Mexico and upper ridging builds to our west. Highs mainly in the upper 40s- mid 50s on Sun. Another warmup is expected early next week as the high moves off the SE CONUS coast, upper ridging builds over the area, and troughing deepens across the Rocky Mountain west.

AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 620 AM EST Wednesday .

VFR conditions are expected through the 12z TAF period. Calm winds (<5 kt) prevail at all terminals this evening. N winds will increase slightly to 5-10 kt this afternoon into the early evening before becoming calm once again this evening. The persistent cloud deck over SBY has expanded all the way S to PHF/ORF and should continue to stick around while slowly retreating N throughout the morning before dissipating around 16-18z at RIC/PHF/ORF (the cloud deck does not make it to ECG). The cloud cover at SBY should slowly erode by around 18z. Otherwise, high cirrus will move into the region from the S through the day ahead of SCT cloud cover beginning Wednesday evening from S to N.

OUTLOOK . A trough pushes off the SE coast Wednesday night, followed by a secondary trough that tracks across the region Thursday. This will result in considerable cloud cover but with VFR conditions prevailing. Weak high pressure builds into the area Thursday night/early Friday. Cloud cover increases late Friday ahead of low pressure over the Deep South. This area of low pressure tracks along the Carolina coast Friday night/early Saturday bringing the potential for rain and degraded flight conditions. A secondary trough then tracks across the region Saturday night into Sunday with degraded flight conditions possible once more.

MARINE. As of 335 PM EST Tuesday .

Early this morning, surface high pressure is nearly centered across the forecast area allowing for north to northwest flow over the waters. Seeing a very slight uptick in winds (10 to 15 knots), especially across the northern most waters, as a weak surge of CAA works into the area. Expect this to continue for the next couple of hours before diminishing shortly after sunrise. Relatively benign conditions are expected this afternoon through Friday as high pressure influences the local weather pattern. Winds generally remain in the 5 to 15 knot range, with a slight uptick Thursday afternoon and evening. Seas will generally range from 2 to 3 feet and waves in the Bay range from 1 to 2 feet through Friday.

Uncertainty increases for the late week period but models have come into better agreement showing low pressure (currently near the Gulf coast) being suppressed southward into the Gulf of Mexico and eastward off of central FL on Thursday. No real effect on local weather with this system other than winds swinging from N to NE on Thursday. There is potential for a more impactful system to affect the area over the weekend, bringing the next potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . LKB SHORT TERM . AJZ/LKB LONG TERM . ERI/LKB AVIATION . RMM MARINE . AJB/RHR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 13 mi45 min N 13 G 15
NCDV2 17 mi51 min NNW 7 G 9.9 40°F 43°F1017.6 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 17 mi45 min WNW 8 G 9.9 40°F 42°F1018 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 22 mi51 min N 9.9 G 14 41°F 42°F1018 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 26 mi27 min NNW 12 G 12 38°F 42°F1018.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi45 min NW 9.9 G 14
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 39 mi123 min WNW 4.1 1017 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 44 mi51 min W 8.9 G 12 41°F 41°F1017.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi45 min WNW 6 G 11 40°F 40°F1018.9 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD12 mi46 minWNW 5 miOvercast37°F26°F65%1018.6 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD18 mi40 minWNW 710.00 miOvercast44°F27°F51%1017.7 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi41 minWNW 910.00 miOvercast41°F28°F62%1018.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW6SW5SW6SW4SW5SW6W9W9W7NW4CalmCalm36NW55NW7NW4NW6NW7NW7NW5NW6NW7
2 days agoCalmCalmSW5SW6SW4W6SW7W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Colton's Point, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Wed -- 12:28 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:24 AM EST     0.43 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:04 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:32 AM EST     -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:59 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:12 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:16 PM EST     0.39 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:39 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:48 PM EST     -0.83 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:00 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.