Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cobb Island, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:48PM Thursday December 12, 2019 2:06 PM EST (19:06 UTC) Moonrise 5:24PMMoonset 7:31AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1238 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
This afternoon..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain likely.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain or snow.
ANZ500 1238 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over the region will shift offshore today. A low pressure system developing over the northern gulf of mexico will move northeastward toward the region Friday into Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday through Sunday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cobb Island, MD
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location: 38.22, -76.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 121742 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1242 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds over the area today before pushing off to the northeast by this evening and overnight. Low pressure develops along the Gulf Coast on Friday, then tracks northeast along the eastern seaboard over the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 1230 PM EST Thursday .

Sfc high pressure slowly pushes off to the northeast through the day today. It will be a chilly day today with temperatures only rising into the low to mid 40s (normal highs are in the low/mid 50s). Sunny/mostly sunny most areas, except overcast/becoming overcast for far SE VA and coastal NE NC as a deck of stratocumulus moves in off the ocean.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 400 AM EST Thursday .

The high pushes off the New England coast tonight. Moisture from a developing system to the SSW increases along a sfc trough in vicinity of the mountains while additional moisture is noted along a Carolina coastal trough. Dry air in the lower levels will initially keep most areas pcpn-free with the exception of some rain creeping along the immediate coastline and Maryland Eastern Shore (PoPs ~20%). Slight to chance PoPs are also in the forecast for areas mainly west of I-95 during the 09-12z timeframe Friday. Thermal profiles continue to indicate the potential for this precipitation to begin as a period of ZR (IP across the NW where there will be colder temperatures aloft). The chance to see a period of ZR/IP will continue across the NW until around 15z before transitioning to all rain. Only minor ice accumulations in the forecast(generally ~0.02" or less) for these areas, but a Winter Weather Advisory may still be needed due to the freezing rain potential. Will let the afternoon shift decide if an advisory is needed based on the latest model data.

WAA moisture will continue to overspread the area from the SSW through the day on Friday, staying as plain rain for all areas minus the aforementioned far NW/W locations. Deepest moisture arrives later in afternoon Friday into the overnight hours with likely to def PoPs in the forecast for this timeframe. Up to an inch of QPF is in the forecast across the west, tapering down to around a half of an inch closer to the coast. Temperatures will vary widely from NW to SE during the day on Friday due to the in-situ wedge setup with highs ranging from around 40 across the NW to near 60 across the northern OBX.

Low pressure lifts NE and away from the mid-Atlantic region on Saturday. However, upper level energy rotating in from WNW will generate additional rain chances, especially through the morning. PoPs continue to trend lower in the afternoon with potential dry slot arrival. Highs from the low 50s NW to the low 60s SE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 400 PM EST Wednesday .

Low pressure will continue to move northeast away from the area Saturday, across the Hudson River Valley and into Quebec. Winds will turn northwest behind the low pressure system producing a downslope flow off of the mountains beginning Saturday night, quickly drying the area out. There will only be weak cold air advection as the low moves north, therefore temperatures will remain mild. Saturday and Sunday night temperatures will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s on Sunday.

Another low pressure system will develop over the gulf coast states Sunday night and track east as an upper trough amplifies over the central CONUS. The GFS has the center of the low pressure tracking inland, west of the Appalachian mountains, while the Canadian and ECMWF have a low pressure track northeast into the southern Appalachian Monday night and developing a secondary low pressure system somewhere across eastern NC or eastern VA early Tuesday morning. The forecast leans towards the ECMWF and Canadian track. There will be a chance of a rain/snow mix across the northern portions of the forecast area at the onset of the precip Monday morning before a widespread area of rain moves in with the warmer air Monday night.

Temperatures will warm from south to north Monday night with lows in the mid 30s north and low 50s south. With the center of the low pressure tracking over the area, High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the upper 40s in the Piedmont and upper 50/low 60s close to the coast. Cold front will move through behind the low pressure with colder air moving in with high pressure.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 1230 PM EST Thursday .

Stratocu moving in off the ocean will allow for borderline MVFR CIGS at the southeast terminals this afternoon into tonight. Otw, clouds increase from SE to NW late this afternoon into this evening. Ceilings are then expected to lower to low end MVFR or IFR early Friday morning (starting 10-12z), especially for KRIC/KSBY as the next system approaches the region. Pcpn mostly in the form of rain will then overspread the entire region from SW to NE during Friday. Winds generally remain light (5-10 knots) from the N to NE through the forecast period.

OUTLOOK . The next system brings rain and degraded flight conditions Friday afternoon through Saturday. The heaviest/steadiest rain is expected Friday night through Saturday morning. A gradual return to VFR conditions expected later Sat, with VFR conditions expected Sunday into early next week.

MARINE. As of 130 AM EST Thursday .

Strong sfc high pressure (~1037 mb) currently building S into the waters early this morning. Strong low level CAA is overspreading the waters and seeing gusts in the Bay to 25-30 kt. Have added the lower James River to the SCA headlines that had already been in place across the Bay/Ocean/Sound. For the rest of the river zones, issued a short fused MWW to cover ~2 hrs worth of gusts to 20-25 kt with expectation that this will be short lived. Sfc high settles over the area late this morning through the remainder of today with diminishing winds but seas will remain elevated (especially southern coastal waters) into the aftn or evening.

Sfc high pressure drifts off to the NE tonight. Low pressure develops along the Gulf Coast Fri then tracks NE to the mid- Atlantic states by Sat morning. Seas on Sat may flirt with 5 ft offshore but overall sub-SCA conditions are anticipated. A period of stronger winds and additional headlines does look late Sat/Sat night/early Sunday as the sfc low intensifies off the New England coast/Atlantic Canada with high pressure building in from the W.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ656. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ658.

SYNOPSIS . AJB NEAR TERM . AJB/JDM SHORT TERM . AJB/JDM LONG TERM . CP/MPR AVIATION . AJB/JDM MARINE . LKB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 13 mi49 min SSE 5.1 G 7
NCDV2 17 mi61 min SE 5.1 G 6 37°F 47°F1038.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 17 mi49 min ESE 5.1 G 6 34°F 47°F1039.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 22 mi61 min E 6 G 7 35°F 43°F1040.1 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 26 mi31 min 47°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 29 mi43 min Calm G 1.9 35°F 1040.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi61 min NE 1.9 G 4.1 36°F 42°F1040.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 39 mi157 min S 4.1 36°F 1041 hPa19°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 44 mi61 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 36°F 44°F1040 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi49 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 40°F 43°F1039.5 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD12 mi71 minNNE 3 miFair36°F15°F44%1040.3 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD18 mi74 minVar 410.00 miFair40°F18°F41%1039.7 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi75 minESE 510.00 miA Few Clouds36°F18°F48%1040.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9W8NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW9
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NW74N43CalmNW4NW3CalmNE4NE9NE10E7E54E6
1 day agoSW6SW4S4NW34365NW65N7
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Tide / Current Tables for Colton's Point, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 01:10 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:47 AM EST     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:29 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:12 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:00 AM EST     0.71 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:58 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:06 PM EST     -1.09 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:53 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.30.60.70.60.4-0-0.4-0.8-1-1.1-1-0.9-0.6-0.30

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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