Saturday, September19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Royal, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:12PM Saturday September 19, 2020 2:00 PM EDT (18:00 UTC) Moonrise 8:19AMMoonset 7:54PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 136 Pm Edt Sat Sep 19 2020
This afternoon..NE winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 136 Pm Edt Sat Sep 19 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Canadian high pressure will build from the great lakes toward the northeast and middle atlantic through early next week as hurricane teddy swirls northward well offshore. Small craft advisories may be needed Sunday into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Royal, VA
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location: 38.22, -77.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 191417 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1017 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

SYNOPSIS. Canadian high pressure will build from the Great Lakes into the Northeast and Middle Atlantic through the weekend, then gradually shift offshore during the first half of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Latest surface analysis shows large 1030 hPa Canadian high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. This high will continue to bring dry conditions across the region this afternoon and tonight. An upper level jet located extending from AL-GA into the Mid-Atlantic region over SE VA has a streak of cirrus associated with it this morning that will continue affecting our southern zones through the afternoon before diminishing by this evening as the jet moves out to sea. Otherwise expect sunny and notably bluer skies the remainder of the area this afternoon as yesterday's cold front pushed out the elevated smoke layer that was lingering across the region.

The 12Z IAD raob showed NErly 25-30 kt winds 1-2 kft and latest model trends show surface pressure gradient will continue tight through mid-afternoon but then begin to slacken toward late afternoon. So a breezy day remainder of this morning most areas especially higher elevations and east of the Blue Ridge.

Temperatures today will be a good 10 to even 15 degF below seasonable normals . readings more typical of mid-October. Highs this afternoon in the metro DC/Balt areas in the mid-60s.

Tonight expect a chilly night with temperatures west of the Blue Ridge generally mid/upper 30 . where we currently are forecasting patchy frost . while low/mid 40s will occur east of the Blue Ridge . except warmer readings still in the 50s near our marine/coastal areas. Will evaluate need for a any frost or freeze headlines for tonight after the new 12Z guidance is in.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Sunshine and cooler than average temperatures will continue Sunday through Monday night. High pressure will be reinforced by high pressure as a mid-level ridge builds in from the west throughout the period.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A relatively quiet pattern will reign through most of the long term. At the start, northerly flow aloft will dominate as a closed low sits over the western Atlantic and a ridge is positioned over the south- central US. This will result in a cool high pressure centered over the southern Appalachians and Teddy well to our northeast, with a northerly surface flow as well.

By Wednesday, the closed upper low will open up and lift northeast, with the upper ridge migrating eastward. This will allow Teddy to retreat northeast further away into the Canadian Maritimes with surface high pressure to our south, allowing a milder flow of air to reach us.

By Thursday, the upper ridge will be over our region, but weakening and transient by this point as another upper shortwave approaches from the northwest. At the surface, this will mean we have a cold front approaching from the northwest, but a mild air mass will remain in place.

On Friday, the aforementioned front and upper level trough may be reaching our region, but guidance is divergent as to whether there is any precipitation with this front.

Before Friday, with no features of significance actually crossing our region, the chance of precip will be near zero, but temperatures will change noticeably, with below normal readings Monday rising to slightly above normal by Thursday. With the cold front nearby Friday, temperatures may start to decline slightly, but not expecting a big change yet.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. No restrictions expected through early next week . with VFR conditions prevailing at all terminals. Winds this afternoon will be gust from the NE but should slacken 20-22Z.

No restrictions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure should dominate with northwesterly winds and clear to partly cloudy skies. Little if any fog is anticipated as well.

MARINE. Small craft advisories are in effect now through 6PM . and will need to evaluate possible extension of SCAs in the lower Potomac and lower Chesapeake Bay beyond 6PM possibly into early evening. Otherwise, no marine hazards tonight and Sunday morning. Small craft possible Sunday afternoon. No marine hazards expected Sunday night through Monday night.

Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Tuesday as surface high pressure to the north and west interacts with Teddy as it passes well to our east and northeast. Winds likely abate Wednesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Tides generally running a bit below normal with the northerly push of winds across the region . as winds slacken levels will start to return later tonight through the day Sunday. Tide levels in the Chesapeake and Tidal Potomac could reach advisory criteria later Sunday into Sunday evening.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543.

SYNOPSIS . SMZ NEAR TERM . SMZ SHORT TERM . KLW LONG TERM . RCM/SMZ AVIATION . RCM/SMZ MARINE . RCM/SMZ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . SMZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 15 mi42 min NNW 4.1 G 9.9 62°F 73°F1026.6 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 40 mi42 min NNE 12 G 16
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 44 mi42 min NNE 13 G 17 58°F 75°F1026.7 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi42 min NNE 11 G 18 59°F 67°F1026.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi42 min N 4.1 G 8 62°F 73°F1027.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 49 mi90 min N 4.1 1027 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 49 mi42 min NNW 16 G 19 1027.4 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA10 mi65 minNNE 710.00 miFair61°F38°F44%1027.8 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA15 mi65 minNNE 910.00 miFair61°F36°F39%1029.5 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA20 mi64 minNNE 910.00 miFair62°F35°F37%1028.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEZF

Wind History from EZF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8
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N4N7N3NW3N7N7N7N6N4N7N7N7N6N6N4N6N10N8N7
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1 day agoCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmE3N4CalmN3N3N4N5N4N8N6N5N9
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2 days agoS6S5SE5S5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Corbins Neck
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:30 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:43 AM EDT     3.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:43 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:05 PM EDT     3.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.90.40.10.10.61.72.73.23.332.31.60.90.40-00.41.42.53.33.63.42.8

Tide / Current Tables for Port Royal, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Port Royal
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:01 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:30 AM EDT     2.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:14 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     2.52 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.200.20.71.422.32.321.510.50.2-00.10.51.322.42.52.31.81.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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