Wednesday, April8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Royal, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 7:41PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 10:27 AM EDT (14:27 UTC) Moonrise 7:34PMMoonset 6:20AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 737 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 am edt this morning through this evening...
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 25 kt...becoming nw 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms, mainly this morning.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Becoming ne 5 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 737 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak frontal boundary will pass through the waters later today followed by a stronger cold front on Thursday, resulting in yet another threat of showers and Thunderstorms Thunderstorms. Small craft advisories will likely be needed this afternoon, and again Thursday through Saturday. A gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Royal, VA
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location: 38.22, -77.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 080756 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 356 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

SYNOPSIS.

A front will drop southward through our region this morning. A strong cold front moves through our area on Thursday. A Canadian high pressure builds over our area Friday through Saturday before low pressure possibly impacts the area early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/.

A line of storms are moving through our region this morning. The storms should continue to weakened as they progress further through our area as they enter more stable air which should inhibit further severe potential. An isolated severe thunderstorm can't be ruled out over the next few hours as a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 6am. The main threat will be damaging winds but isolated instances of large hail can't be ruled out. The line of storm should be through our region by the middle parts of this morning.

A cold front to our northwest which is driving the line of storms will move through our region later this morning. As the front moves through our area, additional showers and storms will be possible this morning and into the early afternoon. As temperatures are expected to warm up into the mid to upper 70s to low 80s, conditions may be favorable for a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms to form along the boundary especially in areas in central Virginia. The threat for showers and thunderstorms should continue to wane into this afternoon as the front moves further south of our region and we become positioned on the cold side of the front. Dry conditions are expected this evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase early Thursday morning as stronger cold front approaches from the west.

SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/.

A strong cold front will move through our region early Thursday morning and continue through our area into the afternoon. A strong upper level jet will shift northward and help to enhance lift along the frontal boundary as it moves through our forecast area. HiRes guidance is hinted at the formation of squall line feature that forms during the early morning periods Thursday and progresses eastward through our area by the early Thursday afternoon. This line has the potential to develop thunderstorms capable of producing strong to damaging winds but there remains uncertainty whether this line will hold together through our area.

Behind the frontal passage, a strong pressure gradient will lead to gusty winds of 25 to 35 knots with locally higher gusts possible. High pressure will build into our region through Friday but strong winds could linger into Friday. A cooler air mass will move into our region on Friday with temperatures running much cooler in the upper 40s and 50s with overnight lows in the 30s Friday night. As temps drop near freezing along with winds becoming light, there is potential that frost/freeze advisory may need to be issued for Friday night but there remains a lot of uncertainty at this time.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/.

The aforementioned area of high pressure will push offshore on Sunday, with southerly flow returning, bringing warmer and more moist air into the region. Initial thoughts are that the first half of the day stays dry. However, a potent cutoff upper low, previously sitting over the desert southwest, will be moving out over the southeast. Surface low pressure will form over the Arklatex and move off generally towards our region. Guidance is spread about how exactly this will evolve. Maintaining thoughts from yesterday that this has the potential to be an impactful event for the region in one of two ways. The first option is that the system tracks to our south, but we are solidly within the heavy rain threat, so flooding concerns could arise. The other possibility is for the system to track into the Ohio Valley, and bring a cold front through late Sunday or Monday (timing is still very much in flux), which would result in the potential for some severe weather. This is out near the end of the forecast period, so not locking onto any particular solution at this time, but at this point, these are the two scenarios that the guidance is coming up with.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move through the terminals this morning. The terminals most likely to experience thunderstorms are Martinsburg, BWI, and MTN with thunderstorms possibly reaching DCA,IAD, and CHO later this morning. A period of showers are expected for all terminals and brief MVFR to IFR conditions can't be ruled out within storms. Showers and thunderstorms should shift further southward this afternoon leading to mainly VFR conditions with gusts of 15 to 20kts this afternoon.

A strong cold front will move through our terminals from the west early Thursday morning through the afternoon periods. MRB and CHO terminals will be the first to experience any precipitation with this system and there is the potential for thunderstorm capable of producing strong gusty winds forming along the cold front. Behind the frontal passage, VFR conditions along with strong and gusty winds of 25 to 35 knots out of the west-northwest will move into behind the front. These conditions are expected to continue into early Friday. Winds should start to taper off Friday afternoon with VFR conditions expected to continue.

Winds will gradually diminish Friday night, with VFR conditions expected to continue through the day on Saturday. SubVFR conditions may return Sunday as rain potential moves back into our region.

MARINE.

A line of storms will move through the waters this morning bring strong and gusty winds and isolated hail. Behind these storms, winds will pick up and be 18 to 22knots this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for this afternoon. A strong cold front will move through the waters on Thursday. Strong and gusty winds are expected along and behind the front. Gusts of 25 to 35 knots are expected. Small Craft Advisories are likely Thursday and Friday with Gale Warnings possible Thursday afternoon into Friday.

SCA conditions will be possible both Saturday and Sunday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543.

SYNOPSIS . JMG NEAR TERM . JMG SHORT TERM . JMG LONG TERM . CJL AVIATION . CJL/JMG MARINE . CJL/JMG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 15 mi63 min WSW 12 G 15 59°F 59°F1002.4 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 40 mi57 min WNW 5.1 G 9.9
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 44 mi57 min W 5.1 G 8 60°F 54°F1002.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi57 min W 11 G 14 59°F 57°F1003 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi57 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 60°F 59°F1002.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 49 mi117 min W 2.9 1002 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 49 mi87 min WSW 13 G 20 1002.3 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA10 mi32 minSW 310.00 miFair59°F57°F94%1003.7 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA20 mi91 minSSW 410.00 miOvercast59°F54°F83%1003.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEZF

Wind History from EZF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW9CalmSW4W11
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1 day agoN5NW4N3N7NW7
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NW6CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS6S7W5CalmSW3CalmCalmSW3CalmE5N6CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3

Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Corbins Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:14 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:35 AM EDT     3.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:52 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.2-00.10.91.92.93.43.532.41.710.40-0.20.21.22.22.93.232.51.8

Tide / Current Tables for Port Royal, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Port Royal
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:45 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:22 AM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:23 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 PM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-00.30.91.62.22.52.421.510.50.2-0.1-0.10.41.11.72.12.321.61.10.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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