Tuesday, August11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
King George, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 8:09PM Tuesday August 11, 2020 3:25 PM EDT (19:25 UTC) Moonrise 11:26PMMoonset 12:47PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 139 Pm Edt Tue Aug 11 2020
This afternoon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely .
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely . Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 139 Pm Edt Tue Aug 11 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build across the waters through this evening. A cold front will approach from the northwest during the middle of the week, stalling in the area towards week's end.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near King George, VA
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location: 38.24, -77.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 111433 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1033 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will settle to the south of our area through tonight. A cold front will approach late Wednesday into Wednesday night and remain stalled near our area through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Nearly all of the fog and low clouds that developed to the east of the Blue Ridge this morning have burned off. What little residual fog still exists over portions of Orange, Culpeper, Fauquier and Albemarle Counties should burn off over the next hour or so. Ample sunshine is expected through the remainder of the morning into the early afternoon hours, which will allow temperatures to climb into the low 90s for most. A cumulus field is starting to develop across northeastern Maryland along and northwest of the bay breeze boundary. While coverage of storms this afternoon is expected to be isolated to widely scattered in nature, CAMs hint that northeastern Maryland (convergence along bay breeze may locally enhance coverage) as well as locations to the west of the Blue Ridge (closer to the weak shortwave passing through) may stand the greatest chance for a popup storm this afternoon.

Previous discussion . Latest surface analysis depicts a cold front heading southeastward across the Great Lakes. High pressure is located over the western Atlantic. Through Wednesday, this front will make slow but steady progress southeast, reaching our forecast area late on Wednesday.

For today, we will remain under the general influence of the high to our southeast. However, a weak shortwave aloft, currently located over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, will cross the region late today. This will likely result in more spotty showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, perhaps with a little better coverage given the upper level support, but still fairly low, isolated to scattered. Majority of the region will likely remain dry today, but not quite as many as yesterday. Highs will be again in the low 90s with heat indices approaching 100.

Tonight will be soupy. With the upper level support and surface insolation ending, the storms mostly dissipate, but a stray shower can't be completely ruled out overnight. Lows mostly in the 70s.

Wednesday, the actual cold front will move in from the northwest, starting to stall out as it does so. In addition, a closed low, currently located over Oklahoma and Kansas, will be moving towards us. This will touch off some more widespread showers and thunderstorms, and with plenty of moisture available (pw's potentially over 2 inches) and instability, locally heavy rain along with isolated gusty winds are a threat. Wednesday will resemble the days late last week much more than it will Monday or Sunday. However, enough sun will make it through early on to boost temps back into the lower 90s in much of the area, helping the strong storm threat with the additional CAPE.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. The cold front will be stalled in our vicinity, perhaps just north of the region or across our northern zones, Wednesday night through Thursday night. Meanwhile, the upper low to the west in the Ohio Valley will stall as well, gradually weakening. There may however be an infusion of tropical moisture from a weak disturbance to our south. Either way, PW's should already be quite high, so plenty of showers and some thunderstorms will be likely. Temps will start to drop a bit with the increased rain and cloud cover, with most areas staying in the 80s on Thursday, but enough CAPE should still be generated from insolation to create some storms with heavy rain, if not some isolated gusty winds. A flood threat is present.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The upper-level pattern remains very unsettled across the east coast, with an upper ridge locked in over the west coast. Over the Mid-Atlantic, an upper trough will sit overhead through at least Saturday. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure sits over the western Atlantic, while a nearly stationary surface front sits over the region. Guidance shows an area (or multiple areas) of low pressure riding along this boundary through Saturday/early Sunday. All of this will combine to bring showers and thunderstorms to the area at least through Saturday, and likely into Sunday and Monday as well. Timing is still a bit uncertain, as it can be a struggle to nail down the exact timing of when the front will get out of here, so will carry likely POPs into Sunday, but lower percentages, then lesser chances on Monday. Some guidance does hint at high pressure trying to build in Sunday/Monday, hence the lowered POPs. Will have to see how that forecast evolves in the coming days however. As far as temperatures go during this timeframe, looking at below average readings in the low to mid 80s.

Friday and Saturday look to continue to pose a risk for flooding across the area. Steering flow will be relatively weak in the mid- upper levels and a slow moving surface front will be setup over the region. Additionally, surface flow will be off of the Atlantic, pushing PWATS well above average for this time of year (+2 SD). This all is becoming increasingly concerning for the flooding threat.

All being said, this is a fairly complex pattern with a lot of different moving pieces. So, the uncertainty in exact timing is still high at this point, but the Friday/Saturday timeframe looks to be very wet overall. Stay tuned for latest forecasts as timing details are ironed out.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Patchy low clouds/fog at CHO have burnt off. Prevailing VFR conditions and light southerly winds are expected through the remainder of the day. The main aviation concern over the next couple days will be thunderstorm coverage. Overall coverage of storms today should remain isolated to widely scattered in nature. However, coverage will increase significantly Wednesday and Thursday, with a commensurate rise in the risk of brief IFR cigs/vsby and gusty winds. Best timing is afternoon and evening, though the risk may linger through the night Wednesday and Thursday nights.

Unsettled conditions Friday and Saturday, with a front stalled nearby/overhead. Periods of moderate to heavy rain are possible during this time, which could lead to flight restrictions at all terminals. Timing is still a bit uncertain on the greatest threat (see long term discussion below for more details), but generally looks like a messy Friday/Saturday, with MVFR conditions likely at times, and IFR not out of the question as well.

MARINE. No significant synoptic wind issues expected through the next few days, but southerly channeling could cause winds to approach SCA levels later today into tonight. Current thinking is that gusts will remain below SCA levels, but will continue to monitor winds through the remainder of the day. Otherwise, the main concern through Thursday will be thunderstorms. Coverage should remain isolated to widely scattered today, but will increase significantly Wednesday and Thursday, with gusty winds a threat from any storm. Best timing is afternoon and evening, though the risk may linger through the night Wednesday and Thursday nights.

Winds will generally be below SCA criteria Friday. Heavy rain, and perhaps a few gusty thunderstorms, over the waters could lead to some short-fused headlines needing to be issued Friday, but not expecting any widespread severe threat at this time.

By Saturday, low pressure developing along the frontal boundary could lead to some gusty winds up to SCA criteria.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . RCM NEAR TERM . RCM/KJP SHORT TERM . RCM LONG TERM . CJL AVIATION . RCM/CJL/KJP MARINE . RCM/CJL/KJP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 9 mi55 min E 6 G 8 87°F 89°F1013.4 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 35 mi55 min SE 6 G 7
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 39 mi55 min SSW 5.1 G 7 87°F 84°F1014 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 42 mi55 min SSW 6 G 8 87°F 82°F1014.3 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 44 mi175 min SSE 9.9 G 11 1015.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 45 mi115 min SSE 5.1 1014 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 45 mi55 min S 7 G 11 87°F 83°F1013.7 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 46 mi37 min 83°F 84°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA14 mi30 minSSE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy91°F74°F57%1013.5 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA18 mi30 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy91°F70°F51%1015.2 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA20 mi29 minno data8.00 miFair88°F75°F66%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEZF

Wind History from EZF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S5S6SW6S6
1 day agoS4S4S5S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6S4NW6E7
2 days agoNE4E3NE3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S5SE4SW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Hopyard Landing, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Hopyard Landing
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:31 AM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:11 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:02 PM EDT     2.01 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:49 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.32.11.71.30.90.70.60.60.91.31.71.921.91.61.20.70.40.40.50.81.31.8

Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Corbins Neck
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:38 AM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:42 AM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:09 PM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:20 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.82.92.72.31.81.30.90.70.70.91.522.42.52.52.11.61.10.70.50.50.81.42.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.