Sunday, February28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dillon Beach, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 6:04PM Sunday February 28, 2021 7:33 PM PST (03:33 UTC) Moonrise 7:56PMMoonset 7:54AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ540 Coastal Waters From Point Arena To Point Reyes California Out To 10 Nm- 240 Pm Pst Sun Feb 28 2021
This afternoon..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft. NW swell 6 to 8 ft at 13 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 13 seconds and W around 2 ft at 18 seconds.
Mon..S winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves around 2 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 12 seconds and W 2 to 3 ft at 18 seconds.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves around 2 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 15 seconds and nw 2 to 3 ft at 16 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 7 to 9 ft at 14 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 6 to 7 ft. NW swell 9 to 11 ft at 14 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 6 to 7 ft. NW swell 7 to 9 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 8 to 10 ft and nw 4 to 6 ft.
PZZ500 240 Pm Pst Sun Feb 28 2021
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... North winds have decreased with locally breezy conditions lingering in the outer waters this afternoon. Lighter winds will persist tonight, Monday, and most of Tuesday with locally breezy southerly winds alongshore beginning early Monday. A moderate period northwest swell persists through the early week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dillon Beach, CA
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location: 38.25, -122.98     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 282356 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 356 PM PST Sun Feb 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. Mild afternoon with light winds and clear skies. Most of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast is forecast to remain relatively mild and dry through much of next week before rain chances potentially return for the first weekend of March.

DISCUSSION. as of 01:41 PM PST Sunday . GOES-WEST Air Mass RGB Composite across the Pacific visually captures subtropical moisture ~25N streaming into the tip of Baja while a trough over the Gulf of Alaska slowly dampens the upper-level ridge centered at ~140W this afternoon. Closer to home, are observing mild temperatures this afternoon with light winds in contrast to the gustier candidness along the foothills and up into the higher peaks earlier this morning. Skies for the most part remain clear with only a handful of high-base clouds across the region.

Another night with widespread mins in the 40s F across the region is expected tonight while some of the interior valleys, particularly in the North Bay, will drop down to the mid to upper 30s F owing to greater air flow blockage. Warmest overnight spots will be concentrated along the Bay Shoreline, where temps in the mid 40s F are expected by dawn tomorrow. Looking at another mild day on Monday with widespread upper 60s F and even some low 70s F across the interior.

The trough over the Gulf of Alaska will eventually track south as the upper-level ridge retrogrades westward between today and Wednesday. It will quickly take on a cut-off low signature as it disassociates from the mid-level zonal flow at ~50N and track south and parallel to the California Coast. While GEFS and Canadian ensemble members have kept the low slightly closer to the shoreline during this portion of its trajectory, EC members, along with SREF guidance, are in greater agreement that the system will stay farther out to sea. Nonetheless, even the closest solutions remain well offshore. This makes synoptic sense given that the departure of the upper-level ridge from the immediate coast will result in a favorable environment for the low to deepen right along the original center of the ridge. Given its nature as a cutoff low, however, its trajectory will inevitably get shifted onto more of an eastward track as it encounters the zonal flow from the subtropical moisture. And while such a setup will translate into some moisture returns for SoCal, the system will be too far to the south of us for any of that moisture to make it up into our neck of the woods.

Given the current outlook, looking at a dry, calm, and mild pattern Tuesday through Thursday, with afternoon highs in the upper 50s F to low-to-mid 60s F along the Coast, mid-to-upper 60s F along the Bay Shoreline, and low 70s F in more favorable interior locations. Nighttime lows will generally drop down into the 40s although, as tends to be the case, the interior valleys will likely drop down into the mid-30s F and we may see some areas of patchy frost as a result. The only locations within our CWA that might see any sprinkles out of this will be down along the extreme southern portions of the Big Sur coast for Tuesday afternoon. That being said, some of that southerly flow (albeit rather dry) associated with the cutoff low will eventually advect across our waters as early as Monday afternoon, which should act as a coolant for the south-facing portions of the Coast all the way through Wednesday.

Turning our attention over to next weekend, day 3-7 clusters pick up on some uncertainties between the EC, Canadian, and GFS ensemble members: namely the timing and amplitude of the next trough that will replace the cutoff low. GEFS members are leaning towards a less amplified trough and a delayed start time to the showers until around late Friday/early Saturday, while EC ensemble members prefer a deeper trough and a faster moisture return that would bring showers into the CWA as early as Friday afternoon. Biggest reason for these uncertainties lies with the amount and timing of upper- level wave momentum transfer that occurs between Siberia to Alaska. A faster-paced transfer would allow for the upper-level ridge that will have retrograded to the northcentral PAC by midweek to continue to build westward towards Japan which in turn would result in the EC ensemble mean solution to play out, while a slower-paced transfer would favor the GEFS mean solution. It should also be noted that the main driver for the available moisture in this setup will be the culmination of the position of the upper-level trough along ~140W and its ability to tap into subtropical moisture to its south. This means the EC mean solution is also the most favorable for higher precip totals. Disagreements will hopefully lessen as we get closer to the event, but for now looking like we have fair agreement with regards to the potential for some rain next weekend starting either Friday afternoon or late Friday evening and going into Saturday.

All in all, this synoptic-scale shift in the oceanic pattern coincides with what would be expected under a negative PNA index as troughing becomes the more dominant synoptic-scale feature across the northeast PAC. EC weeklies continue to trend negative, suggesting a wetter pattern for the West Coast through the first half of March.

AVIATION. as of 03:56 PM PST Sunday . For the 00Z TAFs. VFR across terminals with light N to NE winds. Clear skies observed on satellite. Overnight, continued clear skies and light winds. A bit breezier Monday afternoon with southerly flow developing, and perhaps few high clouds. Vicinity of KSFO . VFR. Light northerly winds backing to the WNW through early evening, then light and variable overnight. Southerly winds develop Monday afternoon. VFR through the taf period. SFO Bridge Approach . Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals . VFR with light to breezy onshore winds. Overnight, light and variable, becoming ESE. Continued VFR through the period.

MARINE. as of 02:40 PM PST Sunday . North winds have decreased with locally breezy conditions lingering in the outer waters this afternoon. Lighter winds will persist tonight, Monday, and most of Tuesday with locally breezy southerly winds alongshore beginning early Monday. A moderate period northwest swell persists through the early week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Tngt. None.

PUBLIC FORECAST: Diaz AVIATION: Lorber MARINE: Bingaman

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BDXC1 7 mi40 min 60°F
PRYC1 - 9415020 - Point Reyes, CA 18 mi46 min 50°F1021.8 hPa
46214 - Point Reyes, CA (029) 34 mi38 min 49°F7 ft
46026 - SAN FRANCISCO - 18NM West of San Francisco, CA 35 mi34 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 50°F1022.1 hPa (-0.0)
46237 - San Francisco Bar, CA (142) 37 mi64 min 51°F5 ft
TIBC1 - Tiburon Pier, San Francisco Bay, CA 38 mi53 min Calm 58°F 1021 hPa
RCMC1 - 9414863 - Richmond, CA 38 mi52 min Calm G 1.9 59°F 55°F1021.1 hPa
PPXC1 - 9414847 - Richmond (Point Potrero), CA 40 mi46 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 60°F 1021.5 hPa
DPXC1 - 9415141 - Davis Point, San Pablo Bay, CA 40 mi46 min ESE 11 G 13 62°F 1020.8 hPa
FTPC1 - 9414290 - San Francisco, CA 41 mi52 min WSW 8 G 12 55°F 53°F1021.2 hPa
CQUC1 42 mi51 min 55°F
PXSC1 44 mi46 min 59°F 29°F
PXOC1 - 9414311 - San Francisco (Pier 1), CA 44 mi46 min WSW 8 G 9.9 59°F 1020.2 hPa
OBXC1 46 mi46 min 58°F 33°F
OMHC1 - 9414769 - Oakland Middle Harbor Met, CA 46 mi46 min W 7 G 8
OKXC1 - 9414776 - Oakland (Berth 34), CA 46 mi46 min W 6 G 7 57°F 1021.2 hPa
MZXC1 - 9415102 - Martinez-Amorco CA 48 mi46 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 60°F 55°F1021.4 hPa
UPBC1 48 mi46 min ESE 8 G 8.9
LNDC1 49 mi46 min W 4.1 G 5.1 58°F 1021.2 hPa
AAMC1 - 9414750 - Alameda, CA 49 mi46 min 56°F

Wind History for Point Reyes, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Rosa, Santa Rosa Sonoma County Airport, CA20 mi41 minSSE 710.00 miFair52°F37°F57%1020.6 hPa
Petaluma Municipal Airport, CA20 mi39 minN 410.00 miFair50°F32°F50%1022 hPa
Novato / Gnoss Field, CA24 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair57°F32°F39%1021.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTS

Wind History from STS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N8N6N4NE7NE9N9N11NE11N12N9N3N4S3CalmNW3Calm5SW45SW5W7S3SE7
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Tide / Current Tables for Tomales Bay Entrance, California
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Tomales Bay Entrance
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Sun -- 12:20 AM PST     4.60 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:57 AM PST     1.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:53 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:49 AM PST     5.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:04 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:30 PM PST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:55 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.64.53.93.12.21.61.41.72.43.44.45.15.34.93.92.71.40.3-0.3-0.30.31.42.73.8

Tide / Current Tables for Point Reyes, California Current
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Point Reyes
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:57 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:32 AM PST     -1.09 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:47 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:53 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:44 AM PST     1.05 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:41 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:47 PM PST     -1.45 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:04 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:22 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:56 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:20 PM PST     1.17 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.6-0-0.6-1-1-0.8-0.40.10.6110.80.4-0.2-0.8-1.3-1.4-1.2-0.7-0.20.40.91.21.1

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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