Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fishing Creek, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 7:57PM Saturday August 15, 2020 3:40 AM EDT (07:40 UTC) Moonrise 1:23AMMoonset 4:40PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ534 Chesapeake Bay From Drum Point To Smith Point- 137 Am Edt Sat Aug 15 2020
Overnight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered showers.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. Showers.
Sun night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered showers.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 137 Am Edt Sat Aug 15 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A stationary front will remain near the mid atlantic through Saturday before gradually moving to the south late in the weekend. A cold front will approach early next week. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Saturday through Saturday night and again Sunday night through Monday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fishing Creek, MD
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location: 38.27, -76.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 150208 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1008 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over the Ohio River Valley will track eastward along a stalled front over Virginia this weekend. A second cold front will follow Monday, with high pressure building in its wake through the middle of next week. Unsettled weather may return during the second half of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/.

Showers are starting to taper off for the majority of our region. A stalled boundary remains over central Virginia which is expected to become the focus for continued convection. Currently we have a mass of showers over central Virginia that is slow moving and producing light to moderate rain. Another group of showers is moving slowly westward over northern VA and central MD, but expect these storms to slowly weakened over the next few hours. The main concern will be areas in central Virginia as the stalled boundary will become the focus for slow moving and training storms. WPC has highlighted this area with a slight risk for excessive rain. It seems the main threat area should just be south of our forecast area but high res guidance does hint at the potential for a quick 1 to 3 inches of rain over a short period of time. We will need to continue to monitor through the night for a flood risk.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issue for portions of central Virginia from 10pm this eveing till 2pm Saturday.

.Previous Discussion


Broad upper-level troughing extends across much of the eastern United States, with an embedded closed low over the Ohio River Valley. At the surface, a front is stalled across Virginia, with a compact surface low to the east several hundred miles east of Norfolk, and a second surface low to the west near Louisville.

Scattered to broken clouds continue to pivot across the region in onshore flow. Some of these clouds are billowing tall enough given the humid airmass to produce some heavy downpours. Anticipate peak coverage between 4 and 8 PM, though with less intensity than the last few days. Given the wet conditions of late, any heavier downpours could result in at least minor/nuisance type flooding issues, though the threat is more marginal than it was Wednesday and Thursday.

A weak ridge of high pressure will nose southward at the surface tonight lowering dew points a touch. Some patchy fog is possible where breaks in the clouds develop and winds go light, but none of the guidance is too keen on widespread/dense fog overnight.

After highs in the lower 80s, low temperatures should fall back into the 60s (though hovering right around 70 for at least one more night in the major urban centers).

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. The cutoff low near Louisville is cause for concern this weekend. With a frontal boundary stalled just to our south and the upper jet buckling overhead, lift and moisture will increase especially Saturday evening into the overnight near the Appalachians, progressing eastward toward the metros through Sunday morning. The best lift from a dynamic standpoint will be across eastern WV/northern VA and into central MD, but the surface front and higher instability will reside over central/southern VA. It's hard to say which of these features will win out and produce the heaviest rain, but given the antecedent conditions and saturated ground, there is a renewed chance for flooding Saturday night into Sunday just about anywhere near and south of I-70. Stay tuned to later forecast updates as we refine the details.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Overall, there is good model agreement concerning the extended period. A strong upper-level ridge over the western CONUS will result in a prolonged trough pattern for the eastern U.S. As a result, opportunities for a more unsettled pattern are likely to continue. The first half of the week appears to be drier under a NW flow. However, with a frontal boundary nearby, cannot rule out a few scattered showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening on Monday especially for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge.

By the middle of next week, an increased moisture flux will ensue as a surface high offshore shifts further east and an approaching shortwave from the west induces a southerly flow. At this time, moisture does not seem to be as abundant as of late with PWAT values ranging between 1-1.5 inches. Therefore, current thinking is that excessive rainfall may not be as much of an issue next week (though with saturated ground, it won't take as much rain to cause issues). Regardless, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain elevated in which local instances of higher rainfall amounts may result.

Overall, temperatures will remain seasonable next week, ranging from the low to mid 80s for highs.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Clouds are slowly building over the terminals behind dissipating rain. I expect most terminals will see close to MVFR conditions with CHO terminal likely experiencing IFR conditions tomorrow morning. The main question for the overnight periods will whether rain lingers over the CHO terminal or will there be a break in precipitation.

.Previous Discussion

Scattered to broken mainly VFR ceilings are expected through this evening. Lower ceilings are possible overnight mainly near KCHO. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out, though most guidance isn't very aggressive on this given slightly lowering dew points. Showers are likely near/east of the Blue Ridge with a thunderstorm possible, but confidence at any one terminal wasn't high enough to insert any restrictions as of 18z. The threat/coverage should wane after 23-01z.

Ceilings will likely lower through the day Saturday and remain low (MVFR/IFR or lower) as onshore flow strengthens due to low pressure approaching from the Ohio River Valley. Rain chances increase during this time as well, peaking Saturday night near KCHO/KMRB and overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning in the metros. Some rain may be heavy with embedded thunder possible, especially near KCHO/KIAD/KDCA. Conditions should gradually improve by late Sunday.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected both Monday and Tuesday next week. However, instances of sub-VFR conditions cannot be ruled out, especially with patchy morning fog and chances for showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening.

MARINE. Onshore flow may increase to near Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels late tonight, but I wasn't confident enough to issue a headline for it given the marginal gradient that is expected. The winds look more likely to increase Saturday evening into Sunday as low pressure passes to the south, and SCA will likely be needed for part or all of the marine district.

Showers/a few thunderstorms may reduce visibility and result in sporadic gusty winds or even a waterspout through the weekend.

SCA conditions are possible early next week especially Monday morning. Winds should diminish by Tuesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Persistent onshore flow will result in rising tide levels this weekend. Minor flooding seems likely for most areas along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland and along the tidal Potomac River, with near moderate flooding not out of the question especially near Annapolis.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for VAZ025-026- 036-037-503-504-508. WV . Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for WVZ505-506. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . DHOF/JMG NEAR TERM . DHOF SHORT TERM . DHOF LONG TERM . MSS AVIATION . MSS/DHOF/JMG MARINE . MSS/DHOF TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 12 mi52 min NNE 5.1 G 7 76°F 83°F1013.8 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 12 mi52 min NE 8.9 G 12 1014.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 19 mi52 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 22 mi46 min 78°F 83°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 23 mi52 min NNE 5.1 G 6 74°F 83°F1014 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 23 mi52 min ENE 7 G 9.9 78°F 81°F1013.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 43 mi130 min NW 1 1014 hPa
NCDV2 43 mi52 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 74°F 84°F1013.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 45 mi40 min NNE 11 G 12 77°F 83°F1015.2 hPa (-0.6)63°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 49 mi46 min NE 9.7 G 12 79°F 84°F1015.7 hPa

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD9 mi48 minENE 610.00 miA Few Clouds75°F69°F82%1014 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD14 mi47 minNNE 410.00 miFair77°F71°F82%1013.5 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD17 mi45 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F66°F83%1014.6 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD21 mi45 minNNE 310.00 miFair72°F68°F88%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNHK

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmE4NE5--CalmNW5NW5NW8N7NE10NE10NE12E12E6NE5E7E8NE11E11NE6NE10NE7NE9NE10
2 days agoSW7W4W6W5W4CalmE4SE6SE6SE7SE7SE4S4SW4CalmE9SW6S8CalmCalmSW3NW4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Hooper Island Light, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Hooper Island Light
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:41 AM EDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:15 AM EDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:50 PM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.32.11.81.51.2111.11.31.41.51.51.31.10.80.70.60.711.41.92.32.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:08 AM EDT     0.71 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:03 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:31 AM EDT     -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:05 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:04 PM EDT     0.20 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:32 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:57 PM EDT     -0.34 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.50.30-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.2-00.10.20.20.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.10.20.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.