Monday, June21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lexington Park, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:37PM Monday June 21, 2021 4:02 AM EDT (08:02 UTC) Moonrise 4:11PMMoonset 2:05AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ542 Patuxent River To Broomes Island Md- 136 Am Edt Mon Jun 21 2021
Overnight..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 136 Am Edt Mon Jun 21 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong cold front will approach from the ohio river valley late today, then cross the region Tuesday. High pressure will build over the waters for the middle portion of the week. May be needed for portions of the waters Monday evening and Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lexington Park, MD
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location: 38.27, -76.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 210046 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 846 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain over the Atlantic through Monday and Claudette will pass southeast of the area tonight into Monday. A strong cold front will pass through the region Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure will build overhead for the middle portion of next week as drier and cooler weather returns.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/.

The showers and thunderstorms that formed along the Allegheny front are starting dissipate as diurnal heating has shut off. A shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out over the next few hours but the threat for storms should end by midnight. The mid and high level clouds from the storms are starting to move out and partly cloudy skies are expected to return overnight.

An extra note for Monday will be the the increasing heat. Afternoon temperatures will likely peak in the mid 90s with dew points in the 70s. Heat indexes in the DC metro area could reach close to heat advisory criteria but most 105 indexes will be isolated and only for a hour in spots.

.Previous Discussion

A mix of sun and clouds continues this afternoon across the region. Some CU clouds have developed across northern MD and VA as well as along and west of the Blue Ridge. Hot and humid conditions continue with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for most with dew points near 70. H5 heights continue to rise this afternoon through tonight. However given the nature of the unstable atmosphere along with the observed CU field, do continue the risk for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late this afternoon through early this evening mainly for the Potomac Highlands into northern VA, eastern WV, and northern MD. However, given the subsidence of the rising heights, think convection will be minimal. The HRRR has continued to push back the timing of the development of any convection with each new hourly run, very similar to its performance yesterday. Thus, think that any shower/storm that does develop will be quite brief in nature. Chances for convection will decrease with the loss of daytime heating this evening.

Meanwhile, Claudette will continue to track south and east of the region through early tomorrow morning and is not expected to impact the region. Overnight lows will remain in the low to mid 70s, slightly cooler across the mountains. Patchy fog expected overnight.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Claudette will continue to shift offshore early Monday morning. Some isolated showers pay be present during the pre-dawn hours as residual moisture associated with the system increases the already fairly saturated atmosphere. Any shower activity will be mainly inside of I-95 but should cease by daybreak. Overall, expect temperatures Monday to be similar to today, perhaps a degree or two higher with slightly more humidity. The moisture advection should cause dewpoints in the 70s for most locations, and with highs in the 90s, that will put heat indices around 100 degrees (especially east of the Blue Ridge Mountains).

The heat and humidity will lead to plenty of instability, and heights will be falling in response to an upper-level trough to our west that will be slowly shifting eastward as an associated cold front approaches the region. The forcing from the front along with falling heights and plenty of instability means that chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase, especially during the afternoon, continuing into the evening hours. There is still some uncertainty as to how progressive the front is. Current thinking is that the front approaches the region from the west, igniting showers and storms for areas mainly west of the Blue Ridge. With the parent trough still over the Midwest, thinking that the front is likely to linger in place overnight into Tuesday. So while convection will relax overnight due to the loss of daytime heating, showers and perhaps some residual thunderstorms are expected to persist overnight.

As the parent trough swings eastward on Tuesday, will cause the front to finally cross the region. While there is still some timing differences in guidance, appears that this occurs during the late morning into the early evening hours. As a result, rain that may be heavy at times, especially in instances in embedded thunderstorms, can be expected mainly during the mid morning through late afternoon. Rain will then taper off from NW to SE Tuesday evening.

There is an isolated threat for flooding and severe storms during this time as well due to plenty of moisture that will be in place along with a shear vector nearly parallel to the cold front and instability ahead of the front. The best chance for heavier showers and thunderstorms will be east of Interstate 81 on Tuesday.

High pressure will build overhead Tuesday night behind the cold front through Wednesday bringing noticeably cooler and less humid conditions.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Long term will start with Canadian high pressure building across the region, with dry air and highs into the lower 80s. This won't last however, as a weak low pressure now looks more likely to start pushing northward up the coast Thursday night into Friday. Should this happen, increased clouds along with a chance of showers or some drizzle will exist, and temperatures are likely to slide back downward a bit, though 80s remain likely. The influence of this system appears most likely in eastern portions of the forecast area, near the bay and Potomac, with much less influence, if any, likely in the Allegheny Front.

By Saturday, this system is nudging northeast off the coast, with lowering influence, but another front will start moving towards us. Southwest flow ahead of the front should allow warming to resume if it gets interrupted, but the shower/t-storm risk will increase. However, it must be noted that guidance has significant differences regarding the speed of this system, and its quite possible it holds to the west for several days before reaching us. This would lead to a few days of more typical summer weather, with terrain forced storms in a warm, humid air mass.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. VFR conditions expected to continue this afternoon under a southerly flow. A isolated shower and/or thunderstorm is possible late this afternoon through early this evening. Highest confidence for any TSRA remains over MRB.

Increasing moisture overnight may result in a period of low ceilings and MVFR conditions in the pre-dawn hours Monday. Highest confidence for this occurrence is CHO, as well as DCA, BWI, and MTN as a result of Claudette passing offshore. VFR conditions resume by daybreak tomorrow morning. However, a strong cold front will approach the region from the NW which will ignite additional showers and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. The front is then expected to push through the region on Tuesday. As a result, increasing chances for CIG/VSBY restrictions are expected late Monday, continuing into Tuesday. High pressure builds back into the region Tuesday night, as VFR conditions return.

VFR Wednesday under high pressure. However, a weak low pressure moving up the coast Thursday night into Friday could produce just enough easterly flow to bring a few showers, some drizzle, or some low clouds, with sub-VFR cigs possible. The influence from this system is most likely at BWI/MTN, with lowest risk at MRB.

MARINE. I have extended the Small Craft Advisory on Monday through the afternoon due to southerly channeling winds along with Tropical Depression Claudette moving off-shore.

High pressure will remain over the Atlantic through Monday while Claudette passes offshore early Monday morning. An increased gradient will cause a southerly flow to increase this afternoon into tonight. An SCA is in effect for the Bay and the middle/lower portion of the Tidal Potomac River.

Additional SCA may be needed Monday and Tuesday for portions of the waters with an increased southerly flow ahead of a cold front, slated to slowly cross the region by Tuesday. Additionally, gusty showers and thunderstorms may require SMWs during this time.

Dry with sub-SCA winds under high pressure Thursday. Weak low pressure moving up the coast Friday could nudge winds closer to SCA levels, but probability remains low.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530- 531-536-538-539-542. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ532>534-537- 540-541-543. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ530- 531.

SYNOPSIS . MSS NEAR TERM . MSS/JMG SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . RCM AVIATION . MSS/RCM MARINE . MSS/RCM/JMG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 4 mi44 min SW 12 G 15 75°F 76°F1007.7 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 10 mi44 min SSE 8.9 G 11 74°F 1007.7 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 10 mi44 min S 1.9 G 5.1
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 19 mi44 min SW 12 G 14 76°F 77°F1008 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 20 mi38 min SSW 12 G 14 73°F 76°F1008.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 23 mi44 min SSW 13 G 15 77°F 79°F1007.8 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 30 mi44 min S 5.1 G 8.9 76°F 78°F1007.8 hPa
NCDV2 31 mi44 min SSW 5.1 G 7 74°F 78°F1007 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi92 min WSW 2.9 70°F 1007 hPa69°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 43 mi62 min SSE 13 G 14 75°F 74°F1008.3 hPa (-1.3)75°F
44063 - Annapolis 48 mi38 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 73°F 75°F1 ft1008.2 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 49 mi44 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 76°F 78°F1007.1 hPa

Wind History for Solomons Island, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD3 mi70 minSSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F73°F91%1007.9 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD6 mi2.1 hrsS 310.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F70°F94%1008.8 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD9 mi69 minS 810.00 miOvercast79°F72°F79%1007.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNHK

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Solomons Island, Patuxent River, Maryland (3)
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Solomons Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:34 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:19 AM EDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:17 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.91.61.310.80.60.60.711.21.31.31.10.80.50.30.20.20.40.81.31.72.1

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Mon -- 03:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:26 AM EDT     -0.90 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:02 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:07 AM EDT     0.22 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:46 PM EDT     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:27 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:14 PM EDT     0.76 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.8-0.5-0.3-00.20.2-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.10.20.60.80.70.5

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