Saturday, November28, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Lexington Park, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 4:49PM Saturday November 28, 2020 12:42 AM EST (05:42 UTC) Moonrise 3:58PMMoonset 5:12AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ542 Patuxent River To Broomes Island Md- 941 Pm Est Fri Nov 27 2020
Rest of tonight..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 941 Pm Est Fri Nov 27 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the waters early Saturday. A strong storm system will affect the region early next week with gale force conditions possible.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lexington Park, MD
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location: 38.27, -76.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 280215 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 915 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure remains situated over our region this afternoon. A weak cold front will pass through our region on Saturday with high pressure returning for the second half of the weekend. A strong system will impact our region late Sunday through early Tuesday. High pressure builds into our region from the south Tuesday through the middle parts of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. A weak cold front has crossed southeast of the region, with another upstream over the lower Great Lakes as of mid evening. The trailing front has the aid of an upper-level shortwave trough/vorticity ribbon. Given the upstream satellite/obs and trough, I'm hesitant to think clouds will clear much prior to daybreak. Additional mid-level clouds are expanding toward the region from convection over the Gulf Coast, as well.

There are a few breaks in the clouds, and for that reason temperatures will likely fall a few degrees given the light wind in place, but probably won't fall much lower than the upper 30s to lower 40s. A sprinkle can't be ruled out, but chances are low given meager forcing east of the Allegheny Front. Along and west of the Allegheny Front, upslope flow may result in patchy light rain or drizzle, some of which may freeze at elevations above 3,000 to 3,500 feet.

Clouds should break by around midday Saturday as a northwesterly breeze kicks up behind the front. Wind gusts up to 25 mph are possible, and the downsloping component coupled with clearing should result in high temperatures in the 50s to near 60.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Weak upper level ridging will be in place over our region on Sunday with high pressure slowly shifting eastward out of our region later in the day. Clear skies along with light winds will continue through Sunday afternoon. The main change in the winds will be a slight shift out of the south but moisture transport should be minimal. Daytime temperatures will be similar to Saturday if not slightly cooler due to a lower morning start than the previous two days.

The weather pattern starts to change late Saturday afternoon and into Saturday evening. High pressure shifts off the coast and winds become more southeasterly. A strong frontal system will approach our region from the southwest Saturday evening. An upper level trough will move through parts of the southern US while a surface low slowly moves northeastward along the western side of the Appalachians. A secondary low is forecast to form off the east coast and move eastward early on Monday. The low moving along the Appalachians is forecast to occlude toward the upper level low and a triple point low will form as the system approaches our region. Precipitation associated with this system will start to impact our region after 00z Monday and widespread precipitation is forecast by 12Z. There remains some uncertainty on the timing and position of the multiple lows but a threat for strong gusty and thunderstorms will continue to be possible on Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. More agreement beginning to churn on the location of the cutoff low that will be impacting the area by late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Most models are agreeing on the center of the low to be over the WV/OH border by 12z Monday. Any variations in the dynamics of this system could cause a major shift in the forecast. For now, expect the likelihood for heavy rain and isolated instances of damaging winds possible Monday during the afternoon and early evening. Surface convective instability remains questionable at this point for the potential for thunderstorms. Given the chance for strengthening low and mid-level wind fields during the time period, expect gusty winds to be our main concern for Monday into early Tuesday. Flooding concerns remain low at this time given the speed of this system with QPF values only reaching around 1.25" for a 36 hour timeframe.

Upslope snow threat for along and west of the Allegheny Front will be the main concern after the low moves off and backside cold air moves in. This will continue from around Monday night until possibly Wednesday morning, confidence in duration and intensity is low at this time with respect to wintry impacts for those particular areas. On Monday, temperatures will be the warmest for the extended period at around 60F with this surge of moisture from the SSW keeping us in a warm, unstable pattern. Conditions should dry out for most of the area (aside from wintry precip for the western zones) Tuesday into Thursday with high pressure building in from the deep south. After the low passes on Monday night/Tuesday morning, we will see temperatures drop into the low to mid 40s for most of the workweek with overnight lows possibly getting to at or below freezing. Our western zones will be a few degrees colder for the duration, allowing for the chance for the wintry precip to occur at higher elevations.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. BKN/OVC035-050 deck forecast thru about 9z, gradually lifting and breaking apart thru 15-18z. Brief MVFR CIGs or a sprinkle are possible. Some brief patchy fog is possible but seems like a low probability outcome at any one terminal.

A cold front over the lower Great Lakes will drop through the region by midday Saturday. After the sky clears, winds are forecast to gust 16-23 kt. VFR is then forecast thru Sun. Light NW flow Sat night becomes SW Sun, then SE Sun night. Conditions deteriorate markedly late Sun eve as rain moves in ahead of strong low pressure. LLWS likely as well toward Mon AM.

Sub-VFR conditions expected most of Monday with gusty winds (25-30 knots). Ceilings and visibility restrictions within heavier pockets of rain, leading to some instances of IFR conditions. We'll remain windy for Tuesday after low pressure passes.

MARINE. A light wind is forecast over the marine district overnight behind a weak cold front. A second weak cold front will cross Saturday by about midday, with a period of 15-20 kt gusts forecast Saturday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the upper tidal Potomac River and the Chesapeake Bay and adjoining estuaries north of Drum Point MD. Further south, confidence in SCA level gusts is lower, but if it happens it could persist into the evening.

Light wind is forecast Saturday night through Sunday evening as high pressure passes overhead. SE flow likely increases markedly by daybreak Monday.

Gales likely Monday with low pressure passing through our waters. Winds will shift from the southeast to westerly by late Monday night. SCAs likely to remain through Tuesday behind the passing low.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Onshore flow will increase Monday. Most guidance that goes out that far shows at least minor flooding, with SFAS showing moderate at Annapolis. The S/SE trajectory combined with strong low pressure passing just west of the waters supports widespread tidal flooding, but confidence in moderate flooding is low at this juncture given the quick-moving nature of the system.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ530>533-535-538>541.

SYNOPSIS . JMG NEAR TERM . RCM/DHOF/JMG SHORT TERM . JMG LONG TERM . ADM AVIATION . DHOF/JMG/ADM MARINE . RCM/BRO/DHOF/JMG/ADM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . DHOF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 4 mi54 min W 1.9 G 4.1 54°F 56°F1016 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 10 mi162 min N 4.1 G 5.1 55°F 1016.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 10 mi54 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 19 mi54 min NNW 1 G 1.9 53°F 55°F1016.1 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 20 mi42 min WSW 5.8 G 5.8 54°F 54°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 23 mi54 min Calm G 0 53°F 54°F1016 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 30 mi54 min S 1 G 1.9 53°F 53°F1015.9 hPa
NCDV2 31 mi60 min SW 1 G 1 52°F 55°F1015.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi72 min Calm 1016 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 43 mi42 min NW 5.1 G 6 53°F 54°F1016.9 hPa (-0.5)49°F
44063 - Annapolis 48 mi42 min 1.9 G 1.9 52°F 53°F1020.8 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 49 mi54 min W 1.9 G 2.9 51°F 54°F1015.7 hPa

Wind History for Solomons Island, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD3 mi1.8 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F48°F80%1016 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD6 mi47 minN 010.00 miOvercast50°F46°F88%1016.6 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD9 mi49 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds53°F48°F86%1015.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNHK

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN5NW3N6N6N6NE6NE7N4N5N5NE5N4NE5NE6N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS11
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W9W11----N4E5CalmCalmN5N6NW4NW4
2 days agoS5S6S3CalmS5S3S3SW6S6SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Solomons Island, Patuxent River, Maryland (3)
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Solomons Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:00 AM EST     1.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:11 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:07 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:01 PM EST     1.48 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:45 PM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.90.70.50.20-0.1-00.20.50.91.21.41.51.41.210.70.50.30.30.40.60.8

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Sat -- 03:28 AM EST     -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:11 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:42 AM EST     0.65 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:37 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:58 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:38 PM EST     -0.96 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:12 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:29 PM EST     0.27 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.3-00.30.60.60.50.2-0.1-0.5-0.8-0.9-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.10.20.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.