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Marine Weather and Tides Dahlgren Center, VA Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:18AM

Sunset 5:21PM

Friday January 24, 2020 1:09 PM EST (18:09 UTC)

Moonrise 7:19AM

Moonset 5:11PM

Illumination 0%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dahlgren Center, VA

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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington

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FXUS61 KLWX 241506 CCA AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1006 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will move toward the region today before passing through tonight into Saturday. The low will move northeastward into New England during the second half of the weekend. High pressure returns early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A batch of generally light precipitation is moving up the spine of the Allegheny Highlands this morning. With temperatures near freezing at precipitation onset, some patchy freezing rain and slick spots are possible, but the threat is brief and localized (an hour or two tops and less than half the zone), though a few ridgetops may have intermittent light freezing rain on elevated surfaces into the afternoon. Will handle with a Special Weather Statement given the brevity/localized nature of the threat.

Otherwise, trimmed PoPs back east of the Blue Ridge and north of US- 50 for much of the day since most of the forcing is still off to the west. This isn't really a change in the forecast, but rather a tightening of the PoP gradient due to higher confidence as the system draws nearer. Temps/dew points and winds look on track, so no planned changes.

Previous discussion . This evening and tonight, the cutoff low aloft and low pressure at the surface will be over the Ohio Valley, and a secondary low over the NC/VA border will move NE across our region. With easterly flow settled across our region, plenty of moisture will be advected. As this low moves across from SW to NE, moderate to heavy rain is expected along with it. Areas west of the Blue Ridge will have the heavies precipitation before midnight, and areas east of the Blue Ridge after midnight tonight. Precipitation will be ending quick behind this system, so by late tonight areas west could be dry, except west of the Allegheny Front, where upslope snow will continue.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Low pressure over us early on Saturday will continue to move NE. Rain associated to this system may still remain over our eastern areas but will continue to move away from us along with the low pressure. Upslope snow is expected to continue as westerly to NW flow settles over our region. A high pressure over the SE CONUS will start to build into our region Saturday night into Sunday but guidance suggests a wave of low pressure could develop over the Tennessee Valley and move east into our area into Sunday night, which could be some precipitation into our region.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. An additional piece of shortwave energy will dive southeast around its parent upper low Monday, effectively reinforcing cool northwest flow and widely scattered upslope snow showers. Some model solutions, most notably the 00Z ECMWF, suggesting that there could be a vort max and surface low reflection passing south of the forecast area. If that were to happen, the character of precipitation would be more flurry-like vs accumulating snow.

A weak ridge axis progged to settle across the eastern and central CONUS toward midweek as the upper air pattern flattens out and more energy dives south along the Rockies. This is a notably different forecast solution than 00Z/23rd. Consequently, the forecast will remain dry and mild through the week.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Generally MVFR conditions (CIGs) will persist through the day. Rain approaches CHO by 00-03Z. A low pressure system will impact our area through into tonight bringing rain over our region. Rain may be heavy at times. Heaviest precipitation is expected this evening into early Saturday morning (03-12Z). CIGs and VSBYs will decrease once this rain moves in from the SW. IFR and periods of LIFR are possible. Winds will be increasing late Friday night and remain breezy into Saturday, gusts up to 20 knots possible. Conditions will gradually improve Saturday from the west to the east as the system moves away. VFR conditions will develop through the day across the terminals and this is expected to remain through Sunday night. Breezy conditions expected Sunday as well.

VFR conditions should prevail Monday and Tuesday, with periods of 3500-4000 ft cigs.

MARINE.

Winds will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through much of the day today before a low pressure system impacts our region tonight into Saturday. Winds will be on the increase this afternoon into tonight out of the southeast. Despite a low-level inversion, there's enough wind beneath the inversion to result in 20+ kt surface gusts. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory is effect for tonight (a few hours earlier for the lower MD Chesapeake Bay zones). Rain is expected to approach the waters late this evening and move across through Saturday morning. Rain may be heavy at times. Push of winds behind the departing rain does not appear very strong and with poor mixing gusts likely stay sub-SCA (though a few gusts may persist past the current expiration time of 6AM until about mid- morning). Therefore, not enough confidence to extend any headlines at the moment. Winds will increase on Sunday and additional SCA may be needed.

Northwest flow will continue across the waters Monday and Tuesday. A period of 20 kt wind gusts possible behind a reinforcing shortwave.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Water levels running 0.5-0.75 feet above astronomical normals this morning. Anticipate these to increase ahead of a storm system passing across the area Saturday. The most susceptible tide cycle will be Saturday PM. Am not forecasting any inundation at this time, but the upper end of ensemble output suggests it is possible, especially at susceptible sites (eg: Annapolis).

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ530>533-536>542. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ534-543.

SYNOPSIS . HTS NEAR TERM . IMR/DHOF SHORT TERM . IMR LONG TERM . HTS AVIATION . IMR/HTS/DHOF MARINE . IMR/HTS/DHOF TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . HTS/DHOF

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
NCDV2	0 mi	76 min	SE 1 G 1	47°F	43°F		1023.6 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD	29 mi	70 min	ESE 14 G 17
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD	31 mi	70 min	E 2.9 G 4.1	43°F	42°F		1024 hPa (-2.1)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD	36 mi	160 min	ENE 1.9	-23°F			1025 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA	37 mi	76 min	ESE 5.1 G 6	41°F	38°F		1024 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC	38 mi	70 min	E 2.9 G 6	47°F	40°F		1025 hPa (-2.0)
44042 - Potomac, MD	42 mi	40 min	ENE 5.8 G 7.8	42°F	42°F		1023.4 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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N13 G16

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA	19 mi	74 min	NE 8	7.00 mi	Overcast	43°F	37°F	80%	1025 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA	23 mi	75 min	E 3	10.00 mi	Overcast	48°F	40°F	75%	1025.4 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA	23 mi	75 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	46°F	40°F	81%	1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYG

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia (2)

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Tide / Current Tables for Mathias Point, Virginia

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (13,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA

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