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Marine Weather and Tides Dahlgren Center, VA Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 6:37AM

Sunset 7:40PM

Thursday April 9, 2020 1:36 PM EDT (17:36 UTC)

Moonrise 8:47PM

Moonset 6:54AM

Illumination 97%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dahlgren Center, VA

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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington

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FXUS61 KLWX 091609 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1209 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move through our region this afternoon. High pressure build over our region Friday into Saturday. Another system affects our area Sunday into Monday. High pressure builds back into our region through the middle parts of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 4 PM for the Baltimore/Washington metro area for the incoming line of convection.

Previous discussion issued at 1022AM:

Cold front is crossing the Appalachians at mid morning. Multiple bands of convection are located along and slightly ahead of the front. The sunny/calm break this morning will be quickly replaced by deteriorating weather conditions as the front sweeps eastward through the midday hours. While any convection can produce gusty winds given strong background wind flow, the best convection of forcing and instability appears to be over the northeast quadrant of our forecast area (including the Baltimore Washington metro area). Localized damaging wind gusts have the highest chance of occurring in this area.

While the main band of convection will likely exit by 2 PM or so, some guidance has additional showers (or even a narrow line) occurring this afternoon, especially across northern areas. While any of these could produce gusty winds, the pressure surge with the front will likely already be causing very strong winds with gusts of 45-55 mph. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for northern and western parts of the area.

Winds will lessen a bit after dark but will likely remain gusty across most of the area. Cooler air will also arrive with lows in the 30s to around 40. Upslope snow showers (perhaps even squalls) are possible along the Allegheny Front.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. High pressure will slowly build into our region behind an exiting cold front on Friday. A westerly flow will lead to some upslope precipitation along and west of the Allegany front. As temperatures will hover near to below freezing, the higher elevations will likely experience some snow. As of now we only have a few inches for our highest elevations and we don't expect any advisory level snowfall at this time. The strong pressure gradient will remain in place on Friday which will lead to strong, gusty winds throughout our region. There is a potential that we may need to issue another wind advisory for portions of our area on Friday. A few sprinkles/showers can't be ruled out for portions of our forecast area mainly along the Mason Dixon Line as vort energy from an upper level low drops southward into area and combines with a strong jet aloft to provide lift.

The gradient winds will continue to weakened Friday evening and into Saturday as the surface low continues to lift northeastward away from our region. As winds become light and cooler air moves into our region, we may need to issue some frost/freeze headlines for portions of our forecast area Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure will be firmly in place over our region Saturday with winds becoming light. Temperatures will be much cooler with daytime temps in the 50s and lower 60s. A warm front will lift north of our area late Saturday night. Winds will become southerly leading advection of warmer and more moist air into our area. A few showers will be possible mainly in western and northern Maryland but there remains a lot of uncertainty.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. High pressure will continue to move offshore Sunday while low pressure in the southern stream of the jet moves through the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast States. An upper-level trough over the Rockies into central CONUS will continue to dig, which is shown in guidance by it becoming more meridional.

The southern stream system will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and that warm and moist air will begin to overrun cooler air in our area. Therefore, clouds are expected to increase along with increasing chances for rain. The exact timing is still uncertain this far out. The southern stream low over the Gulf Coast States will track northwest west of the Appalachians and into the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday. The low will become occluded, and an occluded boundary will extend southeast from the low into a a coastal low. The coastal low is expected to track between I-95 and the Mid- Atlantic Coast Monday. Plenty of moisture, along with a potent jet stream both at the low and upper-levels means that rain is expected Sunday night into Monday. Rain may be heavy due to the copious amounts of moisture and strong forcing from the jet dynamics. Also, with a very strong wind field, there is a threat for severe thunderstorms. Confidence is still low due to limited instability, but even a little instability may be enough to cause locally damaging winds and perhaps a spin up. The best chance for this to occur would be late Sunday night through midday Monday.

The dry slot should move in later Monday, allowing for conditions to improve, but a cold front will pass through later Monday into Tuesday. The boundary may stall out nearby through Wednesday with waves of low pressure tracking along it. This may bring unsettled conditions. Warm conditions are most likely ahead of the boundary Monday, but noticeably chillier conditions are possible during the middle portion of next week.

AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A line (possibly two) of showers and thunderstorms will impact the area from mid morning into the afternoon. MRB will be first impacted during the middle parts of this morning with IAD/DCA and eastward to BWI/MTN being impacted later this morning and early afternoon. A bit uncertain as to whether any convection crosses CHO. A brief period of strong winds are possible with this line. Strong background westerly winds of 25 to 35 knots with periods of 40+ knot gust winds are expected for all terminals throughout today. VFR conditions are expected outside of showers/storms.

Strong westerly winds will continue into Friday with gusts of 25 to 35 knots possible. Winds are expected to slowly taper off Friday evening and into Saturday. No flight restrictions are expected Friday and Saturday.

Rain is expected to overspread the terminals later Sunday into Sunday night along with subVFR cigs/vsbys. A very strong wind field aloft means that low-level wind shear is a concern Sunday night into Monday. Also, heavier showers and even thunderstorms are possible. Gusty to damaging winds cannot be ruled out, but confidence is low at this time. Conditions should improve later Monday as a dry slot works its way into the area.

MARINE. Even though the Gale Warning is now in effect for all waters, winds across much of the area have been slow to ramp up. However, the cold front is crossing the Appalachians, and there could be sudden onset gales in its wake, even if the winds aren't convectively induced. If winds are less than 15 knots, we'll issue Special Marine Warnings for the sudden onset of gale conditions. Otherwise, SMWs will be reserved for winds greater than 48 kt with convection.

Multiple lines of showers and perhaps thunderstorms will be possible over waters during the midday and early afternoon which will be capable of producing periods of strong winds. Small Craft Advisories in effect through tonight. Gale Warnings may be needed again Friday before winds gradually diminish through Saturday.

Low pressure will pass by to the west later Sunday into Monday. Gusty south to southeast winds are likely, with the strongest winds most likely Sunday night into Monday morning. Rain and perhaps even a couple thunderstorms are expected. Gusty to damaging winds are possible in any thunderstorms that develop. A brief waterspout is possible as well, given a very strong wind field aloft. Confidence for this to occur is low at this time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. DC SW Waterfront has reach minor flood this morning. Water levels will recede behind a strong front crossing today, so no further issues are expected.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for DCZ001. MD . Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ003>006-011- 013-014-501>508. VA . Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ025>031- 052>054-501-503>508. WV . Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for WVZ050>053-055- 501>506. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ530>543. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543.

SYNOPSIS . JMG NEAR TERM . ADS/JMG SHORT TERM . JMG LONG TERM . BJL AVIATION . BJL/ADS/JMG MARINE . BJL/ADS/JMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
NCDV2	0 mi	54 min	WSW 20 G 24	72°F	62°F		991.9 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD	29 mi	48 min	WNW 26 G 31
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD	31 mi	48 min	WSW 26 G 31	70°F	56°F		991.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD	35 mi	54 min	W 16 G 24				992.1 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD	36 mi	30 min	W 19 G 23	67°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD	36 mi	126 min	W 8				992 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA	37 mi	48 min	W 17 G 26	72°F	60°F		992.8 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC	38 mi	48 min	NW 14 G 25	69°F	62°F		992.5 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD	42 mi	30 min	W 21 G 25	66°F			992.4 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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NW12

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W8 G11

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SE2

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NE3

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E4

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SW5 G10

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SW8 G13

W16 G21

W21 G26

W22 G29

1 day ago

N2

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NE7 G10

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SW1 G5

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2 days ago

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E1

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA	19 mi	40 min	W 18 G 26	8.00 mi	Overcast and Breezy	74°F	48°F	40%	992.7 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA	23 mi	41 min	W 10 G 17	10.00 mi	Overcast	73°F	50°F	46%	993.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYG

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)

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NW8

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NW8 G21

N12

NW3

Calm

S5

W6

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W6

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N3

W5

W15 G23

SE3

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Calm

S5

SW17 G21

W15 G24

W18 G26

1 day ago

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SE8

N14

NW6

NE3

Calm

Calm

S5

S4

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N8

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NW11 G16

2 days ago

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SE9

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Tide / Current Tables for Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia (2)

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Tide / Current Tables for Mathias Point, Virginia

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (13,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA

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