Thursday, April9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dahlgren Center, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 7:40PM Thursday April 9, 2020 1:36 PM EDT (17:36 UTC) Moonrise 8:47PMMoonset 6:54AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1212 Pm Edt Thu Apr 9 2020
.gale warning in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through late tonight...
This afternoon..W winds 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 3 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Rain with a chance of tstms through the night.
Mon..S winds 15 kt...becoming W in the afternoon and evening, then becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain with a chance of tstms through the day, then a chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1212 Pm Edt Thu Apr 9 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong cold front will pass through today and high pressure will gradually build overhead tonight through Saturday. High pressure will move offshore Sunday and low pressure will pass through the waters Sunday night into Monday. A cold front will pass through Tuesday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Friday into Saturday. A gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dahlgren Center, VA
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location: 38.32, -77.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 091609 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1209 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move through our region this afternoon. High pressure build over our region Friday into Saturday. Another system affects our area Sunday into Monday. High pressure builds back into our region through the middle parts of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 4 PM for the Baltimore/Washington metro area for the incoming line of convection.

Previous discussion issued at 1022AM:

Cold front is crossing the Appalachians at mid morning. Multiple bands of convection are located along and slightly ahead of the front. The sunny/calm break this morning will be quickly replaced by deteriorating weather conditions as the front sweeps eastward through the midday hours. While any convection can produce gusty winds given strong background wind flow, the best convection of forcing and instability appears to be over the northeast quadrant of our forecast area (including the Baltimore Washington metro area). Localized damaging wind gusts have the highest chance of occurring in this area.

While the main band of convection will likely exit by 2 PM or so, some guidance has additional showers (or even a narrow line) occurring this afternoon, especially across northern areas. While any of these could produce gusty winds, the pressure surge with the front will likely already be causing very strong winds with gusts of 45-55 mph. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for northern and western parts of the area.

Winds will lessen a bit after dark but will likely remain gusty across most of the area. Cooler air will also arrive with lows in the 30s to around 40. Upslope snow showers (perhaps even squalls) are possible along the Allegheny Front.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. High pressure will slowly build into our region behind an exiting cold front on Friday. A westerly flow will lead to some upslope precipitation along and west of the Allegany front. As temperatures will hover near to below freezing, the higher elevations will likely experience some snow. As of now we only have a few inches for our highest elevations and we don't expect any advisory level snowfall at this time. The strong pressure gradient will remain in place on Friday which will lead to strong, gusty winds throughout our region. There is a potential that we may need to issue another wind advisory for portions of our area on Friday. A few sprinkles/showers can't be ruled out for portions of our forecast area mainly along the Mason Dixon Line as vort energy from an upper level low drops southward into area and combines with a strong jet aloft to provide lift.

The gradient winds will continue to weakened Friday evening and into Saturday as the surface low continues to lift northeastward away from our region. As winds become light and cooler air moves into our region, we may need to issue some frost/freeze headlines for portions of our forecast area Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure will be firmly in place over our region Saturday with winds becoming light. Temperatures will be much cooler with daytime temps in the 50s and lower 60s. A warm front will lift north of our area late Saturday night. Winds will become southerly leading advection of warmer and more moist air into our area. A few showers will be possible mainly in western and northern Maryland but there remains a lot of uncertainty.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. High pressure will continue to move offshore Sunday while low pressure in the southern stream of the jet moves through the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast States. An upper-level trough over the Rockies into central CONUS will continue to dig, which is shown in guidance by it becoming more meridional.

The southern stream system will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and that warm and moist air will begin to overrun cooler air in our area. Therefore, clouds are expected to increase along with increasing chances for rain. The exact timing is still uncertain this far out. The southern stream low over the Gulf Coast States will track northwest west of the Appalachians and into the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday. The low will become occluded, and an occluded boundary will extend southeast from the low into a a coastal low. The coastal low is expected to track between I-95 and the Mid- Atlantic Coast Monday. Plenty of moisture, along with a potent jet stream both at the low and upper-levels means that rain is expected Sunday night into Monday. Rain may be heavy due to the copious amounts of moisture and strong forcing from the jet dynamics. Also, with a very strong wind field, there is a threat for severe thunderstorms. Confidence is still low due to limited instability, but even a little instability may be enough to cause locally damaging winds and perhaps a spin up. The best chance for this to occur would be late Sunday night through midday Monday.

The dry slot should move in later Monday, allowing for conditions to improve, but a cold front will pass through later Monday into Tuesday. The boundary may stall out nearby through Wednesday with waves of low pressure tracking along it. This may bring unsettled conditions. Warm conditions are most likely ahead of the boundary Monday, but noticeably chillier conditions are possible during the middle portion of next week.

AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A line (possibly two) of showers and thunderstorms will impact the area from mid morning into the afternoon. MRB will be first impacted during the middle parts of this morning with IAD/DCA and eastward to BWI/MTN being impacted later this morning and early afternoon. A bit uncertain as to whether any convection crosses CHO. A brief period of strong winds are possible with this line. Strong background westerly winds of 25 to 35 knots with periods of 40+ knot gust winds are expected for all terminals throughout today. VFR conditions are expected outside of showers/storms.

Strong westerly winds will continue into Friday with gusts of 25 to 35 knots possible. Winds are expected to slowly taper off Friday evening and into Saturday. No flight restrictions are expected Friday and Saturday.

Rain is expected to overspread the terminals later Sunday into Sunday night along with subVFR cigs/vsbys. A very strong wind field aloft means that low-level wind shear is a concern Sunday night into Monday. Also, heavier showers and even thunderstorms are possible. Gusty to damaging winds cannot be ruled out, but confidence is low at this time. Conditions should improve later Monday as a dry slot works its way into the area.

MARINE. Even though the Gale Warning is now in effect for all waters, winds across much of the area have been slow to ramp up. However, the cold front is crossing the Appalachians, and there could be sudden onset gales in its wake, even if the winds aren't convectively induced. If winds are less than 15 knots, we'll issue Special Marine Warnings for the sudden onset of gale conditions. Otherwise, SMWs will be reserved for winds greater than 48 kt with convection.

Multiple lines of showers and perhaps thunderstorms will be possible over waters during the midday and early afternoon which will be capable of producing periods of strong winds. Small Craft Advisories in effect through tonight. Gale Warnings may be needed again Friday before winds gradually diminish through Saturday.

Low pressure will pass by to the west later Sunday into Monday. Gusty south to southeast winds are likely, with the strongest winds most likely Sunday night into Monday morning. Rain and perhaps even a couple thunderstorms are expected. Gusty to damaging winds are possible in any thunderstorms that develop. A brief waterspout is possible as well, given a very strong wind field aloft. Confidence for this to occur is low at this time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. DC SW Waterfront has reach minor flood this morning. Water levels will recede behind a strong front crossing today, so no further issues are expected.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for DCZ001. MD . Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ003>006-011- 013-014-501>508. VA . Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ025>031- 052>054-501-503>508. WV . Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for WVZ050>053-055- 501>506. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ530>543. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543.

SYNOPSIS . JMG NEAR TERM . ADS/JMG SHORT TERM . JMG LONG TERM . BJL AVIATION . BJL/ADS/JMG MARINE . BJL/ADS/JMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 0 mi54 min WSW 20 G 24 72°F 62°F991.9 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 29 mi48 min WNW 26 G 31
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 31 mi48 min WSW 26 G 31 70°F 56°F991.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 35 mi54 min W 16 G 24 992.1 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi30 min W 19 G 23 67°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 36 mi126 min W 8 992 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 37 mi48 min W 17 G 26 72°F 60°F992.8 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 38 mi48 min NW 14 G 25 69°F 62°F992.5 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 42 mi30 min W 21 G 25 66°F 992.4 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA19 mi40 minW 18 G 268.00 miOvercast and Breezy74°F48°F40%992.7 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA23 mi41 minW 10 G 1710.00 miOvercast73°F50°F46%993.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYG

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8------NW8
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N12NW3CalmS5W6W4W5W6W6N3W5W15
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SE3NW4CalmS5SW17
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1 day ago--SE8N14NW6NE3CalmCalmS5S4----SW3SW4----N8--W5NW8SW4S65W7NW11
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2 days agoNE4E7E10E7NE8NE6NE6NW4W3W5W3W4W4----SW3------S6S7--S4SE9

Tide / Current Tables for Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia (2)
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Dahlgren
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Thu -- 04:41 AM EDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:19 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:15 PM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:23 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.71.41.92.12.21.91.410.50.1-0.1-0.10.30.81.41.81.91.81.510.60.2-0

Tide / Current Tables for Mathias Point, Virginia
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Mathias Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:24 AM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:14 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:58 PM EDT     1.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-00.20.61.11.51.71.61.410.70.30.1-0.1-00.30.71.11.41.51.310.70.40.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.