Wednesday, July8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Pines, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:30PM Wednesday July 8, 2020 3:10 AM EDT (07:10 UTC) Moonrise 10:11PMMoonset 8:02AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ650 Coastal Waters From Fenwick Island De To Chincoteague Va Out 20 Nm- 108 Am Edt Wed Jul 8 2020
Rest of tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas around 3 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Showers likely. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 108 Am Edt Wed Jul 8 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains centered off the mid atlantic coast through Wednesday. Low pressure approaches from the southwest Thursday moving just offshore Friday and Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Pines, MD
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location: 38.39, -75.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 080515 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 115 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure slowly drifts northeast along the Carolina coastline through Thursday before lifting northeast along the Mid Atlantic coast Friday and Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. As of 825 PM EDT Tuesday .

Latest analysis indicates a leftover frontal boundary, which continues to slowly retreat back to the N into eastern MD and DE as a warm front. To the south, ~1012mb sfc low pressure was analyzed over the GA/SC border between KAGS and KSAV, with the sfc boundary draped from NE to SW from south central GA back into southern AL, and extending west to Texarkana.

Have had isolated to widely sct showers develop earlier this aftn/evening, mainly along convective outflows from earlier convection along the front to the north. These showers will continue to dwindle in areal coverage and should be dry after 10pm into the overnight hours with loss of heating and in the presence of very weak/minimal effective shear. Tapered to no greater than 20% chance PoPs over the next few hours. Otherwise, becoming partly cloudy for the overnight with some patchy fog possible. Lows mainly in the 70s, though a few mid-upper 60s are likely in rural/typically cool spots.

Attention then turns to the moisture from the SC/GA low pressure system. Dry wx will be maintained through the overnight then will have just ~20% PoPs moving into NE NC just after sunrise.

The sfc low to the S will only move a little more to the NE during the day Wed.There does appear to be enough of an increase in moisture for likely PoPs into NE NC and far southern VA, but PoPs are expected to drop off fairly quickly to the N. Partly cloudy N and mostly cloudy S. Highs range from the low-mid 80s S to around 90F. A marginal ERO risk covers the SE for locally heavy rain given the increasing PWAT values and minimal steering flow aloft. This is mentioned in the HWO.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday .

The model consensus has the sfc low continuing to move NE very slowly through the period, centered somewhere in the vicinity of the SC/NC coast Wed night, and reaching to SE VA by 12Z/Fri, then tracking off the Delmarva Fri aftn. The deterministic 12Z/07 GFS/ECMWF/GEM all keep the highest QPF offshore, with QPF amounts averaging 0.25" to 1.00" over the CWA through fri aftn. The NAM develops a mesoscale wave of low pressure W of Ches Bay on Fri and generates a small area of 5"+ of rain. While the NAM depiction is unrealistic, the current QPF forecast is for an event total of 1-2" over SE VA/NE NC and 0.50" to 1.00" into central VA. This due to abundant tropical moisture overs the region (PW's 1.75 - 2 inches) with the steadiest and heaviest pcpn progged to hug the coast ivof the trof. Thus, PoPs Wed night into Fri are high chance to likely through the period (highest near the coast). Overall the most widespread coverage at this time looks to be Thu. A marginal ERO risk area expands across most of the local area on Thursday mainly for localized flash flooding. Lows Wed night 70-75. Highs Thurs in the 80s. Will maintain high chance to likely PoPs Fri (highest E) with highs into the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 345 PM EDT Monday .

On Saturday the low will be lifting up the NE coast, however a series of shortwaves passing through will keep showers/storms in the forecast through at least Monday. Beyond Monday there are model differences with the ECMWF bringing upper level ridging into the area, while the GFS continues with a trough over the eastern US. For now will keep chance pops in for Tuesday. Temperatures over the weekend and into the beginning of next week remain seasonably warm, with high temps ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s, and low temps ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 115 AM EDT Wednesday .

VFR conditions to start off the forecast period along with a light SE wind. Added a TEMPO group for some ptchy MVFR fog at both SBY/PHF thru 12Z. Models showing some MVFR SC moving ne along the NC coast by 12Z so went with a BKN 2-3K FT deck at ECG.

Models show moisture increasing from the south this aftrn, but confidence is only high enuf to include a VCSH at ECG for now. Otw, a SCT-BKN CU deck arnd 5K FT dvlps after 18Z.

OUTLOOK . Shower/T-storm chcs increase Thurs/Fri as low pressure moves ne along the Mid Atlntc coast. Sct convection continues into the weekend.

MARINE. As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday .

Southerly flow has increase late this afternoon to 10 to 15 kt with a broad area of high pressure off the Carolina and low pressure north of the Great Lakes. Southerly winds could increase a little more later this evening (especially across the Chesapeake Bay) to around 15 kt with a few gusts near 20 kt for a brief time. Winds will decrease late tonight and towards daybreak Wednesday. Wind remains SE around 10 kt through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Waves in the Bay will average 2 ft late this evening decreasing to 1 foot Wednesday.

A low pressure slowly moving across the deep south will emerge along the Carolina coast and slowly deepen as it tracks up the Atlantic coast. The exact track of the center of low pressure is still uncertain. However, GFS and Ecmwf are is decent agreement slowly tracking the low from eastern NC to just off the VA coast from late Thursday into Friday. Winds will will likely increase Thursday morning and through the day as the low pressure moves north across eastern NC and the pressure gradient tightens across the VA and NC coast. E to ENE winds will increase throughout the day on Thursday to 15-20 kt as the low pressure tracks along the VA/NC coast. Waves and seas will increase Thursday as the low pressure tracks over the area. Waves in the bay (and lower James Rivers) are expected to be 2-3 ft and seas will increase to 4-5 ft.

As the low tracks northeast away our coastline on Friday, winds will turn NE to N then NW and decrease. Southerly flow returns by Saturday afternoon as the low continues to pull away to the northeast and a general piedmont trough sets up for Saturday and Sunday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . LKB/MAM SHORT TERM . LKB/MPR LONG TERM . CMF AVIATION . MPR MARINE . JAO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 5 mi53 min S 5.1 G 8 74°F 71°F1017.5 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 27 mi53 min S 5.1 G 8 75°F 74°F1016.6 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 41 mi59 min S 11 G 12 1017 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 41 mi53 min SE 6 G 8 73°F 75°F1016.5 hPa

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD6 mi18 minS 510.00 miFair76°F73°F94%1016.5 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD20 mi17 minN 07.00 miA Few Clouds72°F69°F91%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOXB

Wind History from OXB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6CalmS3S4SE3E7E8SE9E3SE4S4W4S4S455S53S43S3S33S5
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2 days agoCalmCalmW4CalmCalmW5SE6S75S8S8S9
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Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City, Isle of Wight Bay, Maryland
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Ocean City
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:36 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:45 AM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:44 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:58 PM EDT     2.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.610.40.100.30.81.41.82.12.221.61.10.70.40.30.611.622.42.5

Tide / Current Tables for Fenwick Island Light, Delaware
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Fenwick Island Light
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:46 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:56 AM EDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:51 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:07 PM EDT     4.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.72.71.70.80.1-0.10.41.22.12.93.53.73.42.71.91.20.60.40.81.62.63.444.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.