Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:21PM Wednesday May 27, 2020 3:09 AM EDT (07:09 UTC) Moonrise 8:58AMMoonset 11:53PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ542 Patuxent River To Broomes Island Md- 206 Am Edt Wed May 27 2020
Overnight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy drizzle. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers with patchy drizzle. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog.
Thu..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Fri night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tstms likely in the morning. Showers likely, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 206 Am Edt Wed May 27 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure to the northeast will stretch over the waters tonight before migrating further eastward into the atlantic on Wednesday. Low pressure will move northward from the southeastern us and over the waters late Wednesday through Thursday. A front will cross the waters late Friday through Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed Thursday and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD
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location: 38.39, -76.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 270051 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 851 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure remains in the western Atlantic through Wednesday. A tropical disturbance near the southeast U.S. coast on Wednesday morning will move north through the Appalachains by Thursday morning, and replaced by slow moving upper level trough which lingers across the CWA through Friday night. A cold front will move through our region from the west early Saturday. High pressure builds into the region Sunday and remains through early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The CWA is caught between the offshore surface high and the tropical disturbance that's well to the south; however, the long SE fetch will continue to pump moisture into the region. As of this evening, satellite imagery is showing high clouds well ahead of the tropical disturbance moving into the area. Also, a stratus deck is approaching from the eastern shore.

High clouds will continue to move into the area tonight, and with a persistent onshore flow, low clouds and areas of drizzle/fog should spread over the area after midnight. Fog may be locally dense and another Dense Fog Advisory may be needed late tonight into Wednesday morning as moisture gets trapped underneath the nocturnal and subsidence inversions.

With both warm air and moisture advection on Wednesday, scattered showers should be developing tomorrow morning across the southern portion of the CWA, and spreading across the region by late afternoon. Do not anticipate tomorrow to be a washout, as we'll wait for Wednesday night and Thursday for that possibility.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Higher precipitable water with values AOA 1.5 inches CWA-wide moves into the region Wednesday evening. These values are even greater in the SW portion of our CWA, rising to as much as 2.0 inches along the Chesapeake Bay per the 26/12Z ECMWF. Showers will become more numerous after midnight Wednesday night, and am looking for two areas of heavier rainfall late Wednesday night: One in the SW portion of the CWA, followed by an axis of heavier rainfall associated with the high PWs and PVA along and east of I-95 towards dawn Thursday and lasting through the afternoon. Any shower could produce locally heavy rainfall late Wed night and Thursday, especially during the afternoon hours along and east of Interstate 95 where moisture is maximized.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A potent shortwave will descend into the Great Lakes on Friday. Further to the south, a decaying upper low will thin out into an open wave and gradually become absorbed into the larger trough situated to our northwest. As this process occurs, the northern stream system will drive a cold front southward toward our region. While our area won't be situated beneath the strongest forcing for ascent at upper levels, or immediately ahead of the surface cold front, gradual height falls will be occurring aloft. With warm and humid air in place at the surface, the height falls in the presence of an unstable airmass should be sufficient to spark the development of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Guidance has trended downward with QPF totals across the area, suggesting potentially lower areal coverage of storms. Still think there will be at least some threat for localized flooding following a soaking rainfall on Thursday. Precipitable water values will be around 1.5-2 inches, suggesting that any storms that do form on Friday could be efficient heavy rainfall producers. A stronger storm or two can't be ruled out either, with MLCAPE values increasing to around 1000 J/kg and around 20-35 knots of 0-6 km shear in place. Outside of the thunderstorm activity, conditions will be very warm and humid, with highs in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Saturday's forecast will largely depend on the southward progression of the aforementioned system's cold front. 12z Guidance has thus far trended faster with respect to the progression of the front, which would suggest lower chances for showers and storms. However, there's still enough spread in the guidance, that lingering showers and storms can't be ruled out, especially during the morning hours. If the front were to hold to our north, there could once again be a threat for localized flooding or a stronger afternoon storm, but the trend seems to be moving away from this solution.

A much cooler and drier airmass will work in behind the front for Sunday and Monday as upper level troughing digs into the Eastern US. Mostly sunny skies are expected, along with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and dewpoints in the 40s.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. VFR for most of the terminals through midnight, then conditions deteriorate to AOB IFR after midnight with low CIGS likely and possibility of low VSBY and drizzle. These IFR conditions will likely last through mid- morning Wednesday. SubIFR conditions are also possible during this time. Cigs/vsbys should gradually improve to VFR levels late in the morning into the afternoon, but scattered showers are possible throughout the day.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday into Friday Night. A cold front will progress through the area late Friday Night into Saturday. Depending on the progression of the front, showers and thunderstorms may be possible again on Saturday, but the trend has been for the front to clear the area earlier, which would in turn lead to drier conditions.

MARINE. A southeast flow will continue through Wednesday night, but winds will remain below SCA criteria for most of the time. Fog is expected to develop tonight across the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake, reducing vsby below 1 miles on the water, and continue through much of the day Wednesday as dewpoints rise to meet or exceed the water temperature.

On Thursday, a low level jet with 35kts at 2.5kft on Thursday is apparent on the 12Z Bufkit profile for BWI, but it is above the inversion. However, the potential for it to mix down in heavier showers is there, and SCA may be required Thursday.

Winds may approach SCA levels on Friday in southerly flow, but are expected to remain mostly sub- SCA in magnitude. Thunderstorms will be possible over the waters Friday into Friday Night, with the highest coverage of storms occurring during the afternoon and evening hours. Gusty winds will be possible in association with any of these thunderstorms. Depending on the progression of the system's cold front, showers and thunderstorms may be possible again on Saturday. However, the trend has been for the cold front to move through quicker, which would lead to drier conditions.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Lee NEAR TERM . BJL/Lee SHORT TERM . BJL/Lee LONG TERM . KJP AVIATION . BJL/Lee/KJP MARINE . BJL/Lee/KJP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 1 mi52 min SSE 8 G 8.9 1022.6 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 6 mi52 min ESE 7 G 8 63°F 66°F1022 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 11 mi40 min S 5.8 G 5.8 65°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 19 mi52 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 22 mi52 min ESE 5.1 G 6 62°F 71°F1022.2 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 22 mi52 min E 5.1 G 6 63°F 66°F1022.4 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 25 mi34 min ESE 7.8 G 14 61°F 1022.3 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 28 mi52 min SSE 6 G 7 63°F 68°F1022.2 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi160 min Calm 1022 hPa
NCDV2 34 mi64 min ESE 4.1 G 4.1 67°F 71°F1021.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 35 mi70 min E 5.1 G 5.1 66°F 64°F1023 hPa (+0.5)66°F
44063 - Annapolis 40 mi40 min 63°F 66°F1022.2 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 41 mi52 min 66°F 1021.8 hPa
CPVM2 42 mi52 min 66°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi52 min SE 1 G 2.9 68°F 71°F1022.2 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD7 mi78 minSE 60.50 miFog62°F62°F100%1022 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD17 mi77 minESE 41.25 miFog/Mist66°F62°F87%1021.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNHK

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4----3--NE4E4--E3CalmE4E5E3SE4E4E4S4SE3E3SE4S5SE5SE6SE6
1 day agoNE6E4NE4NE9NE7N8N7NE6CalmE5NE7NE6NE5CalmN4NE3CalmE3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmSE3
2 days agoNE11NE9NE4NE9NE10--E8NE8N63NE73N6N6E4E9E8E7E8E6E4NE5NE6NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point, Maryland (2)
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Cove Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:32 AM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:44 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:20 PM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.91.31.622.12.121.71.310.70.50.50.60.81.11.31.41.41.210.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:42 AM EDT     -0.25 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:00 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:38 AM EDT     0.68 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:10 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:58 PM EDT     -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:31 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     0.31 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:47 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.2-0.2-00.20.50.60.70.50.30-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.10.10.30.30.20.1-0

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.