Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 7:55PM Monday August 19, 2019 5:18 PM EDT (21:18 UTC) Moonrise 9:18PMMoonset 9:00AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ542 Patuxent River To Broomes Island Md- 436 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 436 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over the atlantic will deliver a light southerly flow over the region through Tuesday. A cold front will approach the waters Wednesday into Thursday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD
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location: 38.39, -76.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 191832
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
232 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis Hot and humid conditions will persist through
Thursday with daily chances of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. A cold front will cross the area Thursday night
with canadian high pressure building in for the weekend,

Near term through tonight
A surface trof is noted along and east of i-95 with towering
cumulus and cumulus congestus developing in that area as seen
on goes-16 imagery. This is where convective development is most
likely to occur in the next hour or so. With better shear today
than past few days, expect a few more severe storms today with
damaging wind gusts and some hail the primary threats. Any
activity will likely try to organize into a line and move to the
east and exit the chesapeake bay this evening.

Very warm and muggy tonight with low temperatures in the upper
60s to mid 70s.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
Hot and humid conditions will persist through mid week until
cdfnt clears the fcst area late Thu or Thu night. Expect more
of the same with showers and thunderstorms each afternoon with
wed being the more active day with a shortwave-trough passing by
and more significant height falls. Fcst storm motions are not
expected to be particularly very fast, so storms may produce
heavy rainfall and isolated instances of flash flooding in
addition to damaging winds and hail. Heat indices may approach
the heat advisory criteria of 105f east of the blue ridge both
tue and wed.

Long term Thursday through Monday
On Thursday, a cold front will approach the area from the ohio
valley. This front will bring some much needed relief from the heat
into the weekend. On Thursday however, with the front coming through
in the afternoon, high temperatures probably still reach the upper
80s to low 90s. With dew points in the low 70s too, this will lead
to heat indices into the mid to upper 90s, with a few spots
approaching 100 in southern md central va. The cold front moving
into this environment will certainly result in some thunderstorms
across the region, as evident by likely pops Thursday afternoon.

Thunderstorms that do form along the front will have 1000-2000 j kg
of CAPE and around 30kts of deep layer shear to work with. This will
mean a threat for severe weather, with damaging winds and large hail
being the expected threats. A lot will depend on how quickly the
front moves through the area. Obviously, if the front comes through
earlier than anticipated, severe threat would be more limited. So,
will have to monitor over the coming days for tends in the speed of
the front.

Models are not very sure at all where the front GOES after Thursday.

The ECMWF hangs the front up near the forecast area on Friday, with
norther parts of the area likely being behind the front, and areas
farther south still being in warmer and more humid air. However, the
gfs pushes the front out to sea very quickly Thursday night into
Friday, resulting in a dry and cooler than average day area-wide.

Eps ensembles show some support of both solutions honestly, with the
mean hanging the front up in central va through Saturday.

Temperatures across the area will heavily depend on where that front
ends up on Friday, with some areas in likely barely in the low 80s,
and others closer to the upper 80s farther south. Carrying chance
pops through Friday at least, with best chances farther south. With
a stalled front over the area, and a warm and humid airmass to the
south, can't rule out an isolated flooding threat as well,
especially if storms train along the frontal boundary.

Rain chances decrease into Saturday, but could still see some in
southern areas. Even the ECMWF clears the front from the area by
Saturday afternoon, so expecting a dry afternoon at the very least.

But could not rule out a showers or storms, especially down south,
if the front is stubborn to leave. Temperatures on Saturday will be
in the low 80s, and with dew points in the low 60s, it will feel
much less humid.

By Sunday, model guidance all agrees that the front will be long
gone. Surface high pressure will be set up to our northeast. Dry
conditions expected Sunday, with highs into the mid 80s or so.

Again, low dew points will make it feel very comfortable out.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Sct showers t-storms expected today mainly eastern terminals,
and then all terminals tue-thu until cdfnt clears the area thu
night.

Thunderstorms are expected on Thursday afternoon, in association
with a passing cold front. These storms may produce strong winds and
some hail. Coverage seems to be pretty high, so all terminals face
the risk of restrictions during storms. Other than that,VFR
conditions are expected for the rest of the day.

More showers and storms possible on Friday, as the cold front could
hang up over the region, with the best chance of coverage near cho.

Could see some lower CIGS down near the front, as well as showers
and storms.

Marine
Sct shower t-storms expected today through fri. Winds and waves
higher near t-storms. SCA conditions possible Wed through thu
night.

Generally expecting winds to remain below SCA criteria on Thursday
and Friday. Though the central bay and lower tidal potomac may get
close each afternoon. Additionally, there is a threat for showers and
thunderstorms for all waters on Thursday, with potentially severe
wind gusts. So special marine warnings may be needed. For Friday,
the threat for showers and storms will really be more confined to
the central bay and lower tidal potomac.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lfr
near term... Lfr
short term... Lfr
long term... Cjl
aviation... Lfr cjl
marine... Lfr cjl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 1 mi48 min S 14 G 16 85°F 1015.1 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 6 mi48 min SSE 11 G 14 89°F 85°F1014 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 11 mi24 min S 14 G 16 86°F 1015.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 19 mi48 min SSE 8.9 G 11
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 22 mi54 min S 11 G 13 89°F 89°F1015.4 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 22 mi54 min S 8 G 12 94°F 85°F1014.2 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 28 mi54 min E 7 G 7 90°F 82°F1014.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi108 min SSE 7 96°F 1014 hPa76°F
NCDV2 34 mi54 min WSW 6 G 7 93°F 1013.6 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 35 mi18 min SSE 14 G 15 87°F 82°F1015.2 hPa (-1.1)62°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 41 mi48 min 90°F 1013.8 hPa
CPVM2 42 mi48 min 88°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi48 min NW 6 G 8 95°F 84°F1014.4 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD7 mi26 minSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy91°F78°F66%1014.3 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD9 mi36 minWSW 6 miFair95°F71°F47%1014.9 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD17 mi25 minSSE 710.00 miFair96°F77°F54%1014.1 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD22 mi38 minS 1010.00 miFair95°F75°F53%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNHK

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE11SE8
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1 day agoSE11SE11SE10S7S6S3S4CalmSW6S6SW5CalmCalmSW6SW6SW4W3N3SE8SE8SE7SE10SE9SE11
2 days agoSE9SE9SE9SE8SE5SE7S4S4S4CalmCalmCalmS3--SW3CalmSW5--CalmE6E5SE6SE7SE9

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point, Maryland (2)
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Cove Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:39 AM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:53 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:20 PM EDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.811.21.51.81.91.91.81.51.10.80.60.60.60.81.11.51.71.81.81.61.41.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:21 AM EDT     -0.43 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:00 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:53 AM EDT     0.52 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:03 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:37 PM EDT     -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:39 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:31 PM EDT     0.54 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:00 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.4-0.3-00.30.50.50.40.20-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.4-0.20.10.40.50.50.40.2-0-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.