Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shenandoah, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:23PM Thursday September 16, 2021 2:18 PM EDT (18:18 UTC) Moonrise 4:19PMMoonset 12:54AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 135 Pm Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
This afternoon..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers with a chance of tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers with a chance of tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers.
Sat..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 135 Pm Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain anchored offshore through the weekend. Low pressure developing offshore of the carolinas is expected to track northward offshore through the end of the week, then another area of high pressure will build in from the west. Small craft advisories may be needed for middle portions of the chesapeake bay and lower tidal potomac river on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shenandoah, VA
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location: 38.48, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 161446 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1046 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain anchored offshore through the weekend. Low pressure developing offshore of the Carolinas is expected to track northward offshore through the end of the week, then another area of high pressure will build in from the west.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Mid-morning update: Current thinking remains in line with the previous forecast. As of 10 AM, a weak surface boundary resides across southern MD and will lift slowly toward the north and east over the next several hours. This should serve as the primary focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. By peak heating, this boundary should stretch from along the I-95 corridor into central VA. With weak flow in place through the low-mid levels and relatively moist profiles through a deep layer, storms today will be slow moving. Precipitable water values are currently around 1.5 inches, but are expected to increase to around 1.8 inches along the I-95 corridor over the next few hours (lower amounts further to the north and west). While not excessively high in an absolute sense, those values are anomalously high for this time of year. Instability will also build over the next few hours, with MLCAPE values expected to rise to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Given the slow moving nature of the storms and elevated precipitable water values, localized instances of flash flooding can't be ruled out. Still think that the threat will be isolated enough to go without a watch, but we will continue to assess that potential over the remainder of the morning. Previous discussion follows .

A broad ridge remains over the western United States with a broad trough lifting across the Northeast. Bermuda high pressure is holding firm offshore while low pressure develops southeast of North Carolina. The sheared out remnants of Nicholas are drifting east-northwestward across the Southeast.

The low offshore will move generally northward. Southeasterly flow around it will continue to advect moisture into the region. The best moisture transport juxtaposed beneath modest divergence associated with a weak trailing upper jet looks to focus from central to southern Maryland west-southwestward into central Virginia. Although at least scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible just about anywhere in the region this afternoon and evening, a general focus may tend to be toward those aforementioned areas. Given weak steering flow, high humidity, and moderate instability, some thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall resulting in isolated instances of flooding. The isolated nature of the threat precludes a watch at the moment, but much like yesterday, trends will need to be closely monitored. With a lack of stronger shear and more robust instability, the severe thunderstorm (hail/wind/tornado) risk appears very low.

Showers and thunderstorms should weaken with the loss of daytime heating this evening, followed by potential fog development (some dense) overnight amid a stagnant, late season tropical airmass.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Friday looks similar to Thursday, albeit with somewhat weaker forcing and instability. A chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will linger, but overall coverage and intensity appear to be trending downward. Saturday looks similar to Friday - even less coverage and intensity.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the first half of the weekend, especially at night given the persistent tropical airmass in place. This may also result in low clouds and fog, some of which could be dense late each night into early the following morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. High pressure both at the surface and aloft will build overhead for Sunday, providing dry conditions for most areas along with above normal temperatures. There will be patchy fog and low clouds to start as low-level moisture remains trapped underneath the nocturnal inversion, and some fog may be dense, especially in the trapped valleys west of the Blue ridge into the VA Piedmont.

The surface high and upper-level high will shift toward the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast coast for Monday and Tuesday, and a return southeasterly flow will develop. More warm conditions for this time of year are expected, but with plenty of low-level moisture in place, this may result in some low clouds and fog during the overnight and morning hours each day.

A popup shower from limited instability cannot be ruled out Monday afternoon into Monday night, but most places should be dry since forcing will be limited and the deeper moisture plume should hold off to our south and west (around the periphery) of the high. Moisture may sneak into our western and southern areas Tuesday as the high inches offshore just a bit, but confidence in that is low at this time. Will include a slight chance for showers in those areas for this reason.

For Wednesday and Wednesday night, the upper-level high may break down a bit and shift to the east as a closed upper-level low and its associated trough move through the central portion of the CONUS. Exactly where this low closes off and tracks is still uncertain, and that will have a significant impact as to how long the upper- level high can hold on just to our east. If this system is more progressive, then shower/t-storm chances will increase as a cold front moves toward the area. However, if the system is more blocked, then high pressure will continue to bring mainly dry conditions along with above normal temperatures. Will include chance pops for Wednesday/Wednesday night given the uncertainty at this time.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Low clouds and fog late each night into early the following morning (generally 06z-15z), followed by shower and thunderstorm chances in the afternoon and evening (generally 18z-00z) will be the theme the next few days. KCHO/KMRB will stand the best chance of IFR or lower conditions and possibly dense fog, while terminals east of the Blue Ridge Mountains stand the best chance of brief restrictions in showers or thunderstorms.

High pressure will build in for Sunday and Monday bringing light winds and VFR conditions for most of the time. However, patchy fog is possible during the overnight and early morning hours each day, and IFR/subIFR conditions may result. Confidence is low at this time since slightly drier air may advect in from the north.

MARINE. Generally light northeasterly flow should take over for the next couple of days. Flow may be enhanced in the vicinity of the middle Chesapeake Bay and lower tidal Potomac River Friday as low pressure offshore makes its closest approach. Otherwise, afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances will be present each day (though with slightly lower chances each day) through Saturday; fog, some dense, may also develop each night and early morning.

High pressure will build near the waters for Sunday and Monday, and winds should remain below SCA criteria most of the time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Elevated water levels continue from a southerly flow earlier, but a lighter northeast flow is expected today and this will allow for anomalies to fall.

The onshore flow may strengthen for a period Friday before turning more northerly during the weekend. Water levels may increase some for Friday into Friday night, and minor flooding is possible. However, confidence is low since the flow will likely remain north of east during this time.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . DHOF NEAR TERM . DHOF/KJP SHORT TERM . DHOF LONG TERM . BJL AVIATION . BJL/DHOF MARINE . BJL/DHOF TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . BJL


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 90 mi49 min NNE 4.1 G 7 83°F 77°F1019.5 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Staunton / Shenandoah, VA18 mi24 minWNW 310.00 miOvercast78°F67°F71%1022 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KW45

Wind History from W45 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN5S3CalmS6S4S6N8NW16
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CalmN6N3NE3N3CalmN5N8
1 day agoN3Calm----CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5CalmE4CalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6CalmCalm
2 days agoNW8N6N7
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Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
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Thu -- 01:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:36 AM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:06 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:21 PM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:08 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.42.22.93.23.332.521.61.10.70.40.61.322.62.92.82.41.91.410.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:27 AM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:22 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:12 PM EDT     2.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:24 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.92.52.92.82.62.21.81.410.70.40.511.72.32.52.42.11.71.30.90.60.4

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