Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Timber Cove, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:18PM Thursday September 16, 2021 12:39 PM PDT (19:39 UTC) Moonrise 4:24PMMoonset 1:00AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ540 Coastal Waters From Point Arena To Point Reyes California Out To 10 Nm- 817 Am Pdt Thu Sep 16 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm pdt this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. Wind waves 7 to 8 ft. S swell 2 to 3 ft at 17 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 8 to 9 ft. S swell 2 to 3 ft at 16 seconds.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 6 to 7 ft. S swell around 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. S swell around 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. S swell around 2 ft at 15 seconds. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. S swell around 2 ft at 14 seconds. A chance of showers.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 6 to 7 ft. S swell around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 9 to 10 ft. S swell around 2 ft.
PZZ500 817 Am Pdt Thu Sep 16 2021
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Generally light winds near the coast and breezier northwest winds across the outer waters, with strongest winds in the northern outer waters. Winds will increase across the northern and outer waters today, creating hazardous conditions for smaller vessels. Chances for showers increase over the weekend as a cold front approaches northern california. Wind driven seas prevail with a weak, long period southerly swell through the forecast period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Timber Cove, CA
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location: 38.52, -123.25     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 161818 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 1118 AM PDT Thu Sep 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. Cooler but seasonable conditions will prevail through the end of the week. A deepening marine layer will move inland each night with seasonably warm weather near the coast and bays. As a trough approaches the West Coast this weekend, temperatures will dip below normal. Rain is looking more likely late Saturday into Sunday. Offshore wind event still looks possible Monday into Tuesday with warming temperatures.

DISCUSSION. as of 08:30 AM PDT Thursday . 8AM morning satellite imagery depicts a 2000 foot marine layer banked up along the coast from Cape Mendocino southward throughout Baja. In general, pressure is beginning to drop across the board as a shortwave trough within the broader parent polar low begins to dip towards the region. At the same time, a cutoff low off of the CAL/MEX border is beginning to merge in with the base of the trough of the shortwave and contributing to a broader pressure drop across the board. A dry cold front is evident farther to the northwest beyond the stratus field where clearer air is evident offshore and is expected to descend towards the region over the next 12 to 18 hours. This will consequently bring cooler conditions to the region, with the biggest swing across the interior of 3-6 degrees, with only 1-2 degrees of cooling along the coast versus yesterday. Tomorrow will see this initial, weaker shortwave lift and the flow flatten temporarily through Friday before a deeper, wetter wave embedded in the polar low arrives this weekend. Thus, tomorrow will be marginally warmer and drier than today, though temperatures Friday will still be 3 to 12 degrees below normal.

A bigger change in the weather pattern arrives with the second deeper wave arriving late Saturday into Sunday. Ensemble data suggests highest probability of seeing rain will be across the North Bay, with 0.10-0.20" possible in the valleys, and up to 0.30" possible along the wetter coastal ranges. Precipitation amounts less than a .10" are expected south of the Golden Gate, with roughly a few to several hundredths for the Peninsula and East Bay bayshore. For areas in the eastern interior and South Bay, the wetter scenarios favor a few hundredths, while the drier (majority, higher probability) favor staying dry or just seeing a trace. Saturday night into Sunday is the current timeframe for the arrival of most of this precipitation, from northwest to southeast, though that could still fluctuate by about 12 hours until models come into perfect alignment. Otherwise, both Saturday and Sunday will remain on the cooler side, with widespread temperatures in the mid 60s to upper 70s across the region. By Sunday night into Monday morning (and again Monday night into Tuesday morning), northerly surface pressure gradient will enable offshore flow through the Sacramento Valley/into the periphery of the North/East Bay interior ranges. Model trend on these winds has come down slightly from earlier in the week, but still warrant close watch in the event that critical fire weather conditions present themselves.

See previous discussion for additional details on the current forecast package. No additional updates are planned this morning.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. as of 03:26 AM PDT Thursday . Satellite imagery is almost a mirror image from last night - widespread stratus blankets the coast and inland valleys. Profiler data shows the marine layer has actually deepened and is near 2,000 feet. The deeper marine layer has limited fog potential this morning. Not seeing any reports of dense fog. However, the deeper marine layer may lead to some mist on some windshields. Numerous heat signatures are also visible across far NorCal and more prominent ones in the S Sierra from ongoing wildfires.

No notable changes to the overall forecast through Friday. Night and morning clouds will be common with inland sunshine. The cooling trend the last few days will continue as well. Highs will be seasonably cool with highs in the 60s/70s coast and 70s/80s inland.

The much talked about pattern change for the upcoming weekend is still on track. The disturbance lurking at the end of the Aleutian Islands will continue its eastward trajectory. The eastward push will be enhanced by a 180kt jet. The longwave pattern shows the disturbance deepening and moving into the PacNW on Friday. Quickly on the backside of this upper low another low pivots eastward and eventually rounds the base of the broader upper trough Saturday into Sunday. This feature will bring a front through the state ushering in some wetting rains. Rain chances rapidly increase along the OR/CA border early Saturday and then slowly progress southward. Current forecast has a few showers possible over N Sonoma by Saturday afternoon. More widespread chances for showers increase by Saturday evening north of San Jose. Shower chances will continue through Sunday afternoon and again mainly north of San Jose. A few showers may make it south to near Monterey Bay, but confidence is low. Rainfall amounts will still be rather low for the Bay Area despite the high PWATs. 0.05 to 0.20" for North Bay. Elsewhere amounts will generally be a few hundredths. If two tenths does fall across the North Bay this will be the most rainfall since last spring for a few locations.

Rain chances end by Sunday evening. Behind the departing system high pressure begins to build into the Great Basin. As we approach fall this pattern is not that uncommon. The inland high pressure and coastal low pressure will lead to offshore flow. Models still show two pulses of offshore flow Sunday night and Monday night. Winds will be strongest over the N and E Bay higher terrain. How strong will it be? Still far out for specific details, but it does appear to be the first good offshore flow event. Needless to say, but it will be watched closely to see if a Fire Weather Watch will be needed over the weekend.

AVIATION. as of 11:18 AM PDT Thursday . For the 18z TAFs. A mix of VFR/MVFR/local IFR across terminals, as marine stratus has been slow to burn off this morning. Satellite imagery shows clear skies away from the coast, with stratus lingering around Monterey Bay, most of SF Bay from KSFO/KOAK north through Sonoma County, and over the coastal waters. Expecting VFR conditions by early afternoon with light to moderate onshore winds. MVFR cigs will return tonight with IFR cigs around Monterey Bay and in coastal valleys.

Vicinity of KSFO . MVFR, as stratus slowly recedes from south to north over the bay and terminal. VFR conditions expected around 19z. Moderate onshore winds up to 15 knots this afternoon. While clouds move back into the bay Thursday evening, VFR conditions prevail before clouds fill in late for MVFR cigs early Friday morning.

KSFO Bridge Approach . Approach clear on the south end but clouds linger close to the terminal. These clouds should clear by 19z.

Monterey Bay . VFR/MVFR conditions trending to VFR this afternoon, once stratus burns off. Light to moderate onshore breezes this afternoon. Another night of early return to MVFR conditions lowering to IFR conditions later in the TAF period.

MARINE. as of 8:17 AM PDT Thursday . Generally light winds near the coast and breezier northwest winds across the outer waters, with strongest winds in the northern outer waters. Winds will increase across the northern and outer waters today, creating hazardous conditions for smaller vessels. Chances for showers increase over the weekend as a cold front approaches Northern California. Wind driven seas prevail with a weak, long period southerly swell through the forecast period.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Tday. SCA . Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA . Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 3 PM



PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP AVIATION: Lorber MARINE: Lorber

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BDXC1 17 mi94 min 58°F
ANVC1 - 9416841 - Arena Cove, CA 37 mi52 min SSW 7 G 8.9 53°F 1011.8 hPa
PRYC1 - 9415020 - Point Reyes, CA 39 mi52 min 59°F1012 hPa
46214 - Point Reyes, CA (029) 42 mi44 min 58°F9 ft

Wind History for Arena Cove, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Rosa, Santa Rosa Sonoma County Airport, CA23 mi47 minVar 310.00 miOvercast60°F53°F78%1010.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTS

Wind History from STS (wind in knots)
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S10S8S7S5S4S5S5CalmSW43CalmSW3CalmSW4CalmSW3S4SE343
1 day ago3S8S10S10S11S13S10S6SE6SE4SE4SE4S3S3SW3CalmCalmCalmS3W5SW3Calm44
2 days ago3S7SW8S11S10SE9S7SE5S4CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Ross, California
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Fort Ross
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:00 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:06 AM PDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:55 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:08 AM PDT     4.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:11 PM PDT     2.79 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:23 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:48 PM PDT     5.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.1-0.2-00.61.52.53.64.44.74.64.13.532.82.93.54.255.75.85.54.63.3

Tide / Current Tables for Salt Point, California Current
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Salt Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:00 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:29 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:47 AM PDT     1.02 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:56 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:58 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:28 PM PDT     -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:33 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:24 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:22 PM PDT     0.68 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:19 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:02 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.2-1-0.7-0.30.30.7110.90.5-0-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.20.20.50.70.60.40-0.5-1

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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