Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Boswell's Corner, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:49PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 5:59 AM EST (10:59 UTC) Moonrise 3:58PMMoonset 5:27AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 339 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est early this morning...
Rest of the overnight..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Wed..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain likely.
Wed night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain through the day, then rain through the night.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 339 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will drag its trailing cold front through the region today into Wednesday. High pressure will follow Wednesday night through Thursday. Another low pressure system will affect the region Friday and Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday night and again Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boswell's Corner, VA
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location: 38.54, -77.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 100857 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 357 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will cross the area this afternoon. A weak wave of low pressure will pass by to the southeast as it rides northeastward along the front tonight. Canadian high pressure will then build across the region Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Another, stronger low pressure system will then develop in the Gulf of Mexico and push northward across the eastern United States Friday and Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Latest analysis depicts low pressure in southern Canada, with a cold front extending southwestward across western New York, Pennsylvania, the Ohio, Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys. A warm front snakes southward from western New York into western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, western Virginia and western North Carolina, then makes a U-turn and heads northeastward back up to the Delmarva.

The cold front will make steady progress eastward today, crossing the metro area this afternoon. The warm front is likely to struggle to make further progress north, however, so while mild temperatures in the 50s are likely across the region, the 60s may be harder to come by than earlier anticipated, possibly being confined to eastern Virginia and southern Maryland. Part of the reason for this is that during peak heating, a band of showers just ahead of the cold front appears likely to cross the region, which will limit the effectiveness of daylight (though actual sunshine will likely be hard to come by regardless). After the front crosses the region, temps will start to fall, and by early evening, most of the region will be slipping back into the 40s.

Temps will continue to slide down through tonight, with most areas approaching if not reaching freezing by early Wednesday morning. As a strong jet streak passes to the north and a weak wave develops on the cold front, a renewed band of precipitation appears likely to develop. However, the position, intensity and timing of this band remains uncertain, with some models pretty meager (perhaps due to excessive dry air intrusion behind the front) while others significantly wetter. Thus, confidence in snow accumulations remains fairly low. Have mostly maintained inherited forecast, though did cut back accums in western MD where dry air appears more likely to cut amounts, at least based on the latest guidance. Even where snow does accumulate, amounts on roadways will be substantially less, if there are any at all, than what accumulates on grass and car-tops, and our forecast is for the latter, not the former. That said, there is still a significant risk of an advisory level event north and west of I-95, either side of a line from Westminster MD southwest to Staunton. As the precip may linger into the early part of rush hour, the very low criteria in the metro may even necessitate advisories right to Baltimore and DC. However, with uncertainty remaining high, have opted to hold off on any advisories. The most likely locations to receive advisory snow, however, remains the southern Shenandoah Valley and particularly adjacent Allegheny and Blue Ridge mountains.

Precip moves out quickly Wednesday morning, and sunshine will return. Combined with warm ground and temps in the 30s to low 40s, much of the snow should end up melting.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Canadian high pressure will dominate Wednesday night through Thursday, with dry conditions and chilly, though not really unseasonable, temperatures. Lows may reach the teens Wednesday night in spots, and highs Thursday likely stay in the 30s across much of the region. Cold, but not really unusual for mid-December.

The next system organizing near the Gulf Coast will start to bring warm advection northward Thursday night. While odds are not up to 50 percent yet, an increasing number of models try to bring precip into our southwestern and even central zones as early as pre-dawn Friday. With temps likely below freezing (but not quite as cold as Wednesday night), and warm air aloft, freezing rain is a possibility. Will need to watch this potential closely.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure along the mid-Atlantic Coast will continue to weaken and lift to the northeast Friday. Low pressure will push up from the south and bring a chance for some moderate precipitation. Many places could be at or below freezing Friday morning to midday when the precipitation arrives; thus, the threat for some freezing rain at the onset or a continuation of it is in the coldest places is real. The best location to encounter any freezing rain would be the Potomac Highlands, Shenandoah Valley, the central Blue Ridge Mountains, and even a little to the east of the mountains. As time goes on Friday, temperatures will modify and allow for freezing rain to become plain rain. Rain will become more showery or isolated Friday night.

Low pressure will exit to the north Saturday morning; thus, partial clearing skies expected Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Dry weather should evolve Saturday night and continue through Monday morning. There could be a rain shower or two in the northern Potomac Highlands Monday morning.

By Monday afternoon through Tuesday night, the unsettled weather returns with a threat for more rain showers with the next low pressure system.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR conditions early will likely degrade to MVFR at times later today as showers across the region in association with a cold front. Falling temperatures and a wave of low pressure will bring further restrictions tonight, possibly even a period of IFR vsby in snow, though extent and longevity of this is still very uncertain. VFR returns by midday Wednesday and persists through Thursday night, though a risk of FZRA exists down at CHO late Thursday night as the next system approaches.

Areas of rain and/or freezing rain will bring MVFR or IFR conditions to the terminals Friday through Saturday. Winds northeast and light Friday and Friday night, becoming northwest around 5 to 10 knots Saturday into Saturday night.

MARINE. Southerly flow likely to gradually diminish today as cold front approaches, but northwest flow picks back up behind it, so SCA's continue into Wednesday for some portions of the waters. By late Wednesday, building high pressure may help the gradient relax and allow winds to drop below SCA levels. However, a reinforcing shot of cold air Wednesday night could reinvigorate the winds briefly.

Small craft advisory conditions possible Friday night into Saturday for the central Chesapeake Bay. Winds northeast becoming southeast Friday night 10 to 15 knots gusts 20 knots. Winds becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots gusts higher Saturday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ532-533-537- 539>541. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight EST tonight for ANZ532-539-540. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ530-531-535-536-538-542. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ533-537-541-542. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for ANZ534-543.

SYNOPSIS . RCM NEAR TERM . RCM SHORT TERM . RCM LONG TERM . KLW AVIATION . RCM/KLW MARINE . RCM/KLW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 28 mi66 min SSW 8.9 G 17 58°F 48°F1009.8 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 33 mi66 min S 8 G 12 54°F 44°F1009.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 44 mi150 min SSW 9.9 56°F 1009 hPa51°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 56 mi54 min SW 14 G 16 54°F 1011 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA10 mi64 minSSW 9 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy56°F50°F81%1010.6 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA10 mi65 minSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F55°F100%1011.8 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA13 mi64 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F48°F89%1010.3 hPa
Warrenton-Fauquier Airport, VA13 mi65 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast53°F47°F81%1009.8 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA19 mi65 minSSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F54°F93%1010.5 hPa
Culpeper Regional Airport, VA20 mi65 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast53°F48°F87%1010.2 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA21 mi64 minS 610.00 miOvercast53°F48°F84%1010.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYG

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4S4S7S6S7S6SW4S3S8S4S4S7S12
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1 day agoW7W7W5W5CalmCalmS5S3S5SW3E3SE5CalmSE3SW3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalm
2 days agoNW7NW3NW4N6N6NE4N6NW9N8NE33NW4N6N4NW3W3W5W6W7W7W8W7W9W6

Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Virginia
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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:09 AM EST     1.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:35 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:39 PM EST     1.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 11:18 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.60.811.110.80.60.40.20.100.30.611.21.41.41.210.80.50.30.1

Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Virginia (2)
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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:44 AM EST     1.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:32 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:51 PM EST     1.28 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:32 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.40.70.91.11.10.90.70.40.1-0-00.10.40.81.11.21.31.20.90.60.30.10

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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