Tuesday, August11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Boswell's Corner, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:09PM Tuesday August 11, 2020 9:02 PM EDT (01:02 UTC) Moonrise 11:27PMMoonset 12:49PM Illumination 44% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 736 Pm Edt Tue Aug 11 2020
Tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms this evening.
Wed..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 736 Pm Edt Tue Aug 11 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build across the waters through through tonight. A cold front will approach from the northwest during the middle of the week, stalling in the area towards week's end.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boswell's Corner, VA
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location: 38.54, -77.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 111956 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 356 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will settle to the south of our area through tonight. A cold front will approach late Wednesday into Wednesday night and remain stalled near our area through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the area, with terrain circulations serving as the primary focus for initiation thus far. Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon into this evening as a shortwave disturbance passes to our north. Highest coverage is expected to be over southwestern portions of the forecast area, and there are also signals that a few storms may form in the vicinity of the bay breeze boundary in northeast Maryland. For the most part, storms today are expected to be rather benign. Flow aloft is very weak (around 10 knots), so most convection should be pulsey in nature. DCAPE is unimpressive across much of the area, so strong downbursts aren't expected with most storms. DCAPE values are a bit higher (near 1000 J/kg) in the immediate vicinity of Chesapeake Bay, so any storms that form near the shore could produce gusty winds. Storm motions will be slow, but convection is expected to be rather disorganized and precipitable water values aren't overly impressive, so flash flood potential will be low and limited to areas with very low flash flood guidance. Storms are expected to dissipate during the evening hours, leading to mainly dry conditions overnight. Conditions will be warm and humid overnight, with lows in the 70s for most. Areas of patchy fog may develop toward daybreak, especially across southwestern portions of the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. An active stretch of weather will be in store across the area for Wednesday and Thursday. During the day tomorrow, a cold front will drop southward from Pennsylvania into our area, before eventually stalling out overhead. The day will start out dry, with ample sunshine expected during the morning hours. This sunshine coupled with moisture transport into the area will allow instability to build, with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE in place to the east of the Blue Ridge by peak heating. Flow will be weak throughout the column, and deep moisture will be in place, so the threat for damaging winds is expected to remain low, but still non-zero, given the highly unstable atmosphere in place.

The much greater threat tomorrow will be flash flooding. The combination of a stalled frontal boundary, precipitable water values in excess of two inches, deep warm cloud layers, slow storm motions and antecedent wet conditions suggests that instances of flash flooding are likely across the area tomorrow. As a result, we have issued a Flash Flood Watch for all areas to the east of the Blue Ridge, as well as Rockingham, Augusta and Page counties to the west from noon until 11 PM. Storms may initiate as early as noon, and could linger through the overnight.

Thursday will be another very active day, with a similar overall setup to Wednesday. The main difference will be the presence of a shortwave tracking to our northwest through the Ohio Valley. The surface front will remain stalled over our area, but the shortwave may induce a bit more lift/overrunning over the boundary, as flow at 850 hPa turns southerly in response to the shortwave. Deep moisture will remain in place with precipitable water values holding over two inches, but instability values may be lesser compared to Wednesday. Nonetheless, the threat for flash flooding looks to remain elevated on Thursday, especially given that the ground will likely be saturated from rains on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A very active period is expected during the long term period from Friday through Monday. A near stationary boundary will remain stalled near to over top our region through Saturday. Multiple lows will form and move along this boundary bringing continued showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall. A flow out of the south to southwest will lead to warm and humid air being advected into our region. The presences of a stalled boundary coupled with high PW's will lead to a continued risk for flash flooding Friday through early Sunday. During this same period, warm and humid conditions will lead to modest CAPE with decent shear which could lead to a strong to severe thunderstorm threat, but that all depends on the positioning of the frontal boundary.

There remains some uncertainty on whether the extended rain threat will continue through Sunday. The rain and flood threat for Sunday will depend on the upper level trough that approaches from the west and kicks the stalled boundary out of our area. If the trough shifts further south, the trough would kick off a new low on Sunday that brings further rain to our potentially water logged region, but if it stays further north rain threat shifts further south with the boundary. Another front will drop down into our area on Monday bringing another threat for rain and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The main aviation concern over the next couple days will be thunderstorm coverage. Overall coverage of storms today should remain isolated to widely scattered in nature. Coverage of storms is expected to increase moving into Wednesday and Thursday. For tomorrow, have introduced VCTS at all terminals due to high expected coverage of storms. At the three major hubs, tried to target a four hour window with the highest coverage, but storms could be possible starting as early as noon and could potentially linger through the night and right into Thursday.

An extended period of rain and a south to southeasterly flow will likely lead to subVFR conditions Friday through Sunday with low ceilings being the main threat with periods of reduced visibility. Strong gusts will be possible with thunderstorms that move over terminals.

MARINE. No significant synoptic wind issues expected through the next few days, but southerly channeling could cause winds to approach SCA levels this afternoon into tonight. Current thinking is that gusts will remain below SCA levels, but will continue to monitor winds through the remainder of the day. Otherwise, the main concern through Thursday will be thunderstorms. Coverage should remain isolated to widely scattered today, but will increase significantly Wednesday and Thursday, with gusty winds a threat from any storm. Best timing is afternoon and evening, though the risk may linger through the night Wednesday and Thursday nights. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for any stronger storms.

The overall flow will lead to SubSCA conditions Friday through this weekend but thunderstorms could bring periods of gusty winds over our marine areas.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for DCZ001. MD . Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508. VA . Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for VAZ025-026-029-036>040-050>057-501-502- 505>508. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . RCM NEAR TERM . KJP SHORT TERM . KJP LONG TERM . JMG AVIATION . KJP/JMG MARINE . KJP/JMG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 28 mi45 min S 4.1 G 5.1
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 33 mi45 min SSW 4.1 G 6 87°F 1013.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 44 mi153 min S 2.9 1012 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 56 mi39 min 84°F 84°F

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA10 mi67 minS 98.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F77°F72%1013.5 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA10 mi68 minN 010.00 miFair85°F74°F71%1014.9 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA13 mi67 minS 310.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F75°F77%1013.9 hPa
Warrenton-Fauquier Airport, VA13 mi68 minSSE 310.00 miFair83°F73°F72%1013.5 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA19 mi68 minS 510.00 miFair86°F77°F76%1013.2 hPa
Culpeper Regional Airport, VA20 mi68 minS 410.00 miFair83°F73°F72%1013.9 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA21 mi67 minSSE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F75°F74%1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYG

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6S3SE6W5W4W3SW5S5SW4W5SW4S5S7S6--S6S7S8--S8S8S8S8S9
1 day agoSW4CalmCalmSW6SW4SW4SW4SW3W3W3NW4W3CalmS4--S5--S5S5S5S12S10S8S7
2 days agoW4W4NW4W4W5CalmCalmNW3CalmW3W3CalmCalmS4--SE7S7S7S8S8S10S7NE4SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Virginia
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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:03 AM EDT     1.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:46 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:09 PM EDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:50 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.210.90.70.60.40.30.40.70.80.910.90.80.60.50.40.20.20.30.60.91.1

Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Virginia (2)
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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:10 AM EDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:36 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:41 PM EDT     1.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:14 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.31.10.90.60.40.40.30.40.60.91.11.21.21.10.80.60.30.20.20.40.60.91.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.