Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Boswell's Corner, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 7:57PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 8:58 PM EDT (00:58 UTC) Moonrise 10:17PMMoonset 10:59AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 758 Pm Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly this evening.
Thu..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered tstms with a chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 758 Pm Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure in the atlantic will promote a light southerly flow over the region today. A cold front will approach the waters late tonight into Thursday, before stalling near or south of the area into Friday. High pressure will then settle over the area Saturday into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boswell's Corner, VA
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location: 38.54, -77.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 211824
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
224 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
An upper level disturbance will cross the region this afternoon
and evening. A cold front will approach the region Thursday and
move southward crossing Thursday night, and likely stalling
nearby into Friday. Behind the front, high pressure will build
over the region for the weekend.

Near term through tonight
An upper level trough is crossing the area this afternoon and
will be followed by a second weaker shortwave this evening. At
the surface, a weak pressure trough is present in the lee of the
mountains early this afternoon and this will gradually push
eastward through the remainder of the day and be east of the
region by tonight. A mix of Sun and clouds during much of the
day has allowed temperatures to rise into the upper 80s to low
90s. Instability is not as impressive as what we saw on
Tuesday, given the additional cloud cover and slightly cooler
temperatures, and the synoptic lift will be coming through
piecemeal and focused further north. That being said, 1000-1500
j kg of MLCAPE has developed from near the blue ridge eastward,
and an increase in shear has been noted with effective shear
values from 30-35 knots. One of the more noticeable differences
when compared to Tuesday is the significantly less dcape that is
analyzed across the region. Still, these ingredients will
support at least an isolated threat for severe thunderstorms
today, with damaging winds and large hail continuing to be the
primary threats. Initial development is now occurring in the
surface trough near or just east of the appalachians. These
showers thunderstorms should then progress eastward across the
metros during the remainder of the afternoon hours and into the
evening. A second round of activity is possible, but is less
certain during the mid to late evening as the second weaker
shortwave moves across.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will then dwindle heading into
the overnight, with partly cloudy skies and mainly dry
conditions persisting overnight. Patchy fog will be possible
towards morning as temperatures bottom out in the middle 60s to
middle 70s.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
A surface cold front will then push southward towards the region
Thursday and should be located near the mason dixon line by
Thursday evening. At the same time, upper level shortwave energy
will traverse the region from west to east. Thus, additional
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms seems
probable during the afternoon and evening hours. A marginal risk
of severe thunderstorms appears warranted, and we will also
remain moist with mean flow parallel to the front, so heavy
rain resulting in isolated incidents of flooding will also be a
concern. Highs on Friday will again be hot, in the upper 80s to
low 90s.

The front shifts southward Thursday night into Friday, but
likely lingers close enough nearby to bring continued chances
for scattered showers thunderstorms through Friday evening.

Temperatures will trend noticeably cooler on Friday on the
northern side of the front, with highs from 75-85f. A drying
trend should commence Friday night as the front sinks further
south into southern virginia. Lows will likely fall into the
50s 60s.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
Cold front will continue to sag southward through Saturday morning,
before high pressure builds in from the north by Saturday
afternoon. This will result in showers, with an isolated rumble
of thunder, across central va and maybe southern md on Saturday
morning. The front likely clears our forecast area by Saturday
afternoon, taking rain chances with it. However, there is still
a bit of uncertainty as far as whether our southern most regions
escape the rain. So, keeping low end chance pops across parts
of central va. Though the front should be far enough south on
Sunday to keep the entire area dry, can't completely rule out an
isolated shower wandering into southern parts of the forecast
area. Temperatures this weekend will be below average, with
highs near 80 or so, with significantly reduced humidity as
well.

High pressure will push northeast early in the week, resulting in a
return southerly to southeasterly flow. This could bring showers and
thunderstorms back into the forecast, with muggier conditions
returning. Guidance shows a slight uptick in temperatures as well,
but only into the low to mid 80s by Tuesday. Will carry chance pops
Monday and Tuesday with some thunderstorms possible once again.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Afternoon evening scattered showers and storms can be expected
through Friday as a cold front slowly transits the area,
bringing brief periods of subVFR conditions. Some of the
thunderstorms may become strong to locally severe with heavy
rain, gusty winds, and hail. Patchy fog could also yield
MVFR ifr vis, mostly likely at mrb cho.

Vfr conditions expected through the long term period. The only
exception could be at cho on Saturday morning, where an isolated
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

Marine
Sca conditions expected over the waters this afternoon and into
tonight as the gradient increases and a cold front nears the
ohio valley. The gradient is expected to relax overnight and
remain below SCA criteria Thursday and Friday. The front will
drift over the waters on Thursday, lingering nearby into Friday.

As such, afternoon and evening showers storms can be expected,
some of which will deliver strong gusty winds.

Sub-sca winds expected on Saturday, but a stiff easterly breeze is
expected Sunday afternoon, which could approach SCA criteria.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for anz530-
531-535-536-538-539-542.

Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz532>534-
537-540-541-543.

Synopsis... Mm
near term... Mm
short term... Mm
long term... Cjl
aviation... Mm cjl
marine... Mm cjl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 28 mi58 min SW 8.9 G 11 78°F 87°F1011 hPa (-0.4)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 33 mi58 min Calm G 1 80°F 85°F1011.7 hPa (+0.5)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 44 mi148 min S 5.1 86°F 1011 hPa74°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 56 mi40 min NNE 7.8 G 7.8 80°F 1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA10 mi2 hrsSSW 1110.00 miThunderstorm86°F71°F61%1011.8 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA13 mi2 hrsS 610.00 miFair88°F69°F54%1011.5 hPa
Warrenton-Fauquier Airport, VA13 mi83 minN 010.00 miFair84°F67°F58%1011.8 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA19 mi83 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F75°F94%1012.2 hPa
Culpeper Regional Airport, VA20 mi83 minN 010.00 miFair83°F70°F67%1012.5 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA21 mi2 hrsSSW 610.00 miFair87°F72°F64%1011.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYG

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3SW10SW9SW7NW4NW4W3SW5SW4SW4W4SW8SW9S9S11S10S14S14S11S13SE13S13SW11SW4
1 day agoS13S7NW5CalmW5NW8N4NW4NW5NW4NW5W6W4E3E4SE3SW6S7S6S7S6SE16
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2 days agoCalmNW3E5E6SE7S7SW4SW5W3SW3--CalmS6W6SW3S7S8S7S74NW12NW4NW5NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Virginia
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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:07 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:26 AM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:16 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:09 PM EDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.90.70.50.40.30.30.60.911.11.10.90.70.50.40.30.20.20.50.81.11.21.3

Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Virginia (2)
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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:45 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:41 AM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:41 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:59 PM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.90.70.50.30.30.40.60.81.11.31.31.20.90.70.40.20.20.30.50.81.11.31.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.