Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Prince Frederick, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:29PM Saturday March 28, 2020 5:26 PM EDT (21:26 UTC) Moonrise 8:18AMMoonset 10:34PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 437 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
Rest of this afternoon..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming e. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely through the night.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 3 ft...subsiding to 1 ft after midnight. Rain likely in the morning, then a chance of rain through the night.
ANZ500 437 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A boundary will remain stalled to the south and west of the waters through tonight. The front will then try to lift north as a warm front early Sunday, followed by a cold front passing from the west late Sunday. High pressure will briefly build in for Monday before low pressure passes to the south Tuesday night. A small craft advisory may be required Tuesday night and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prince Frederick, MD
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location: 38.59, -76.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 281858 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 258 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A front will stall out near the Appalachians into southern Virginia through tonight. The front will then try to lift north as a warm front early Sunday, before a cold front moves through from the west late Sunday. High pressure will be in control Monday into Tuesday. A low pressure will then approach from the southeast U.S. Tuesday night before departing off the mid- Atlantic coast on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Latest surface analysis continues to suggest that the surface cold front remains near the Virginia/North Carolina border. However, the frontal boundary aloft has tracked north, which has pushed any daytime convection across Pennsylvania/New Jersey. But, the east flow has permitted a wedge of low clouds to remain trapped across the Baltimore-Washington area, with its southern edge near Charlottesville, banked up against the Blue Ridge. Low clouds has also spilled over the Catoctins to include Cumberland, Winchester, and Hagerstown. Satellite images clearly reflect the have and have-nots.

As the maritime flow continues to deepen, anticipate the low level clouds to thicken, with fog to develop as well. At this point, believe it will be more of a low cloud issue as winds won't go calm, but fog will be locally dense across the ridges as these areas will be within the cloud bank.

Given the low-level saturation, don't believe that temperatures will go far tonight.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Sunday will start with ample low clouds and fog attempting to lift. How quickly it does so may be the key to the forecast. Believe there will be a sharp inversion, with a warm nose which could be as warm as 19C near 925 mb.

A cold front will approach during the day, and cross the region during the afternoon, during peak heating (18-00 UTC). There will be ample shear across the region. Instability will be the question. If the wedge holds, then instability will be minimal and the front would either come through dry or as a few showers (with perhaps an elevated rumble of thunder). But, if the wedge does manage to mix out, then MUCAPE may exceed 1000 j/kg. Given the other ingredients in place, that would be supportive of robust thunderstorms. There are guidance members on each side of the fence.

After collaboration with SPC, decided that the conditional threat great enough to at least mention somehow . hence Marginal Risk of severe. Am maintaining a chance of precip crossing the area in the database, with a slight chance of thunder. It may be that both solutions are correct; ie: cool/stable air across northern Maryland while moist/unstable air present across central Virginia and southern Maryland. Will be monitoring later cycles to discern these details.

Sunday night into Monday a deep cyclone will build across the Great Lakes. The area will experience high pressure but westerly flow and cold advection. Lows will be in the 40s again by Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. An upper level trough over the southern Plains will drop southward through the southern parts of the mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas Tuesday into Wednesday. A surface low associated with this trough will move to our south Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday morning. The main area of precipitation should be situated to the south of our forecast area over the Carolinas and the southern portions of Virginia. As the main forcing remains to our south, the precipitation that we observe in our region will likely be caused by a combination of overrunning precipitation and an easterly flow off of the ocean. If this system tracks further northward, our region has the potential to experience heavier precipitation mainly late Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. Precipitation and an easterly flow will lead to daytime temps running near to slightly below normal for this time of the year in the 50s and lower 60s with overnight lows in the 40s

High pressure builds into our region behind the exiting low Wednesday afternoon and remains over our area through Thursday. Light winds out of north will lead to cooler conditions over our area. Temperatures will continue to hover in the 50s with overnight lows in the 40s on Thursday.

Another cold front is forecast to approach and move through our region Friday and into early Saturday. Models have some decent agreement on the subtropical jet moving northward and phasing with weak jet over the midwest and mid-Atlantic. This phasing will combine with a frontal passage to bring precipitation to our region once again. The main limiting factor will be a westerly flow transporting drier air into our area. We will need to monitor the strength of the jets to determine further hazards for end of next week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Flight conditions straddling between MVFR and IFR, but across BWI/MTN the marine flow spreading inland has resulted in conditions on the verge of LIFR. Low clouds and fog will continue to spread inland, with LIFR widespread overnight.

Conditions will slowly improve Sunday. How quickly this transpires still in doubt. A cold front will be crossing the terminals this afternoon. If the clearing comes by midday, then strong thunderstorms possible along with the frontal passage. Otherwise it may be a dry front.

VFR will return Sunday night, continuing through Monday.

SubVFR conditions are possible late Tuesday and into Wednesday due to rain and an easterly flow. VFR conditions should return Wednesday afternoon and continue through Thursday as high pressure builds over our region.

MARINE. Light northeast winds (at or below 10 kt) will continue across the waters this afternoon into tonight. Low clouds and fog will be thickening through the night. Winds will likely veer south tomorrow as the marine wedge lifts. Its unclear how quickly this will happen, but any clearing would be followed by a threat of thunderstorms with gusty winds late Sunday afternoon.

Conditions will improve Sunday night, but winds shouldn't be high enough to need Small Craft Advisories. No Small Craft issues expected on Tuesday as well, but Small Craft Advisories may be needed on Wednesday due to a northerly flow.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Water levels hovering around a foot to a foot and a half above astronomical normals. Do not anticipate much change over the next day or two. That suggests that Action stages will be threatened with each high tide, especially the daytime cycle which is the higher of the two. Some low-end minor inundation possible, especially near Piney Point.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . NEAR TERM . HTS SHORT TERM . HTS LONG TERM . JMG AVIATION . HTS/JMG MARINE . HTS/JMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . HTS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 14 mi122 min NNW 2.9 G 2.9 1013.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 18 mi116 min E 6 1013 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 19 mi56 min SE 5.1 G 5.1 56°F 53°F1011.9 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 22 mi56 min ENE 11 G 12 56°F 54°F1012.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 22 mi26 min NE 8 G 8 53°F 50°F1014.3 hPa (-2.0)52°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 27 mi56 min 53°F 1012.8 hPa
CPVM2 29 mi56 min 52°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi56 min E 7 G 7
NCDV2 34 mi62 min SE 8 G 9.9 57°F 56°F1011.6 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 34 mi56 min ESE 1.9 G 5.1 58°F 55°F1012.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 35 mi56 min E 5.1 G 7 60°F 56°F1012.4 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 41 mi56 min E 4.1 G 5.1 56°F 54°F1012.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 44 mi56 min ENE 9.9 G 11 50°F 1013.6 hPa
FSNM2 44 mi68 min NE 12 G 14 49°F 1013.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 45 mi62 min E 8.9 G 12 50°F 52°F1013.8 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 47 mi56 min ESE 9.9 G 14 50°F 52°F1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD21 mi34 minSE 610.00 miOvercast61°F55°F81%1012.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K2W6

Wind History from 2W6 (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Plum Point, Maryland
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Plum Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:07 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:28 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:56 PM EDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.30.50.811.11.110.80.60.50.30.20.20.30.50.60.80.80.80.60.40.2

Tide / Current Tables for Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current
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Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290 true
Ebb direction 110 true

Sat -- 12:17 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:33 AM EDT     0.45 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:13 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:25 AM EDT     -0.47 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:59 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:14 PM EDT     0.21 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:05 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:05 PM EDT     -0.32 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.10.30.40.40.40.20-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.200.10.20.20.10-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.