Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bryans Road, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:33PM Thursday July 16, 2020 12:38 PM EDT (16:38 UTC) Moonrise 1:28AMMoonset 4:00PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 1040 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until early morning. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1040 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over new england will shift offshore today. A developing warm front will lift from the central appalachian mountains into pennsylvania by Friday. A weakening cold front will drop in from the lower great lakes Friday night, then stall and dissipate over the middle atlantic this weekend. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bryans Road, MD
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location: 38.62, -77.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 161433 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1033 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over New England will shift offshore today. A warm front will lift from the central Appalachian Mountains into Pennsylvania by Friday. A weakening cold front will drop in from the lower Great Lakes Friday night, then stall and dissipate over the Middle Atlantic this weekend. A trough of low pressure could persist into early next week as high pressure strengthens over the southeastern United States.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. The showers this morning have fizzled out and mostly dry conditions are being reported throughout the region with overcast skies. Looked at model sounding and the clouds should start to thin later this morning and into the early afternoon. If skies start to clear early enough I believe we will have a chance to reach 90 degrees in DC once again but I see upper 80s as more likely at DCA with 90 more likely in downtown DC.

Aside from developing showers, a ridge of high pressure overhead and extending into New England will move toward the northwestern Atlantic Ocean today. A light onshore flow will lead to increasing relative humidity. With this increase in humidity and increasing warmth, more showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop in the mountains later in the morning, then farther to the east during this afternoon.

A cool front will move into the heart of our region and keep the chance for showers or a thunderstorm around tonight. Warm and humid conditions tonight.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. The cool front will move through the region Friday and bring additional showers and thunderstorms to parts of the region. Heavy rainfall will be the main threat from thunderstorms Friday into Friday evening. WPC has a large part of our region outlined in the excessive rainfall potential so we will need to be cognizant of the potential for flooding or flash flooding.

High temperatures should average well into the 80s to around 90F. It will be hotter Friday. Overnight low temperatures will trend warmer as well, likely not falling below 70F for much of the area near/east of the Blue Ridge Mountains come Friday night.

Weak high pressure will build in from the northwest Saturday and Saturday night. Light northerly winds will become southeasterly Saturday afternoon. A couple of showers and thunderstorms could develop over the higher terrain in the west, as well as along the Blue Ridge. Temperatures will be in the lower to middle 90s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Hot, humid, and diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be the ongoing theme Sunday through the early portion of next week. Synoptically we're looking at zonal flow aloft with a surface ridge of high pressure dominating over the western Atlantic and the southeastern U.S. This will maintain a south southwesterly flow around said ridge, thus pumping in those hot and humid conditions mentioned above. Sultry dewpoints solidly in the 70s along and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains, upper 60s to near 70 degrees to the west, combined with air temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will deliver heat indices nearing Advisory criteria both Sunday and Monday. Will continue to assess this potential the next couple of days, but a majority of the guidance continues to tick upwards with temperatures, with some triple digit readings not out of the question.

Best rain chances look to be Tuesday and Wednesday next week as the upper pattern turns a bit more cyclonic in nature and a surface boundary approaches the Mid-Atlantic from the Great Lakes, leading to daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Temperatures "cool" off into the low to middle 90s, but the pesky humidity won't be going anywhere, so heat indices likely flirting in and around the century mark through the middle of next week.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure passing by to the north will keep conditions VFR today with light southeast winds. Some low clouds may develop, most likely at BWI/MTN. Some periods of MVFR conditions will occur at most of our terminals this morning. These clouds will likely eventually mix out today. Low clouds may return for Thursday night.

There should be a higher chance of storms area-wide on Friday as a trough axis crosses the area. VFR conditions Saturday.

Diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm chances will threaten to deliver episodes of sub VFR conditions at the terminal each afternoon and evening Sunday and Monday. Winds will be light out of south southwest.

MARINE. Stronger southeast flow today with potential SCA conditions by this evening. Most storms should stay west of the waters today.

South winds should remain below SCA criteria on Friday, but there will be a greater chance of afternoon thunderstorms, potentially lasting into the night.

No marine hazards expected Saturday.

High pressure centered well to the southeast will maintain a weak gradient and light south southwest winds over the marine district Sunday through Monday. There will be a threat for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, some of which could pose a gusty wind threat.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Onshore winds today will increase and turn more southerly tonight and into Friday, resulting in elevated water levels during this timeframe. Minor flooding is currently forecast at Annapolis and Southwest Waterfront with tonights high tide cycle, with many other sites reaching Action. Will continue to monitor trends today and this evening to assess this potential and determine if Advisories will be needed. Water levels will remain elevated through Friday night with the a continued threat for minor flood. Thereafter, winds will turn more westerly, thus allowing anomalies to tail off the first half of the weekend.

CLIMATE. A rather notable streak of heat has been ongoing in the immediate Washington DC area for nearly three weeks.

20 consecutive days had reached at least 90 F at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (KDCA). While it is certainly not unusual to hit 90 F in July in the DC area, multiple weeks without a break are relatively rare, as evidenced by the all- time record which is 21 days (it happened twice in the 1980s -- once ending on August 14th 1980, and again ending on August 18th 1988). The ongoing streak is notable not only for its longevity, but its earlier occurrence in the summer season.

If the temperature reaches 90 F on today, the record will be tied. But it's going to come down to the wire.

While the background air mass will be warming, it will also become increasingly humid. The more humid it is, the longer it takes for the air to heat up (humid air is denser and requires more energy to raise its temperature). In weather speak, 850 mb temperatures will be about 1 C warmer than Wednesday, and 1000-500 mb thicknesses will be increasing several dm. Scattered to broken cloud cover this morning has kept temperatures mild in the upper 60s to middle 70s, so it will be a warm start to the day. The clouds should scatter by late morning or midday, allowing the sun to do its thing. That being said, if the clouds further develop or linger too long, the air might not have enough time to heat up to 90 F, especially at the airport with an onshore wind right off the Potomac River (the water temperature at nearby Washington Channel is 85.5 F).

Which of these competing factors will win out? It's not clear just yet, and probably won't be until later this morning. Guidance available so far today suggests highs will range anywhere from 85 to 93 F at KDCA, with a best-guess consensus of 89 F. But if it does hit 90 F today, it's seeming increasingly likely it will continue to hit 90 F for at least several more days after that as the warming trend continues.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ530>543.

SYNOPSIS . BKF NEAR TERM . KLW/JMG SHORT TERM . KLW LONG TERM . BKF AVIATION . BKF/KLW/JMG MARINE . BKF/KLW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . CLIMATE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 18 mi99 min 85°F
NCDV2 21 mi99 min 85°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 24 mi129 min SE 6 1023 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 37 mi33 min Calm G 0 79°F 82°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 40 mi99 min 83°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 40 mi39 min ESE 8 G 9.9 78°F 82°F1025.4 hPa (+0.4)70°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 41 mi99 min 83°F

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Belvoir, VA9 mi43 minESE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F70°F67%1023.9 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA13 mi43 minS 87.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F70°F63%1024 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA17 mi47 minSSE 510.00 miOvercast82°F70°F67%1024 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD19 mi43 minESE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F70°F75%1024.8 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA23 mi43 minS 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F68°F59%1023.9 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA24 mi44 minESE 10 G 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F68°F57%1025.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAA

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE6SE3SE6SE5SE7SE6SE6CalmSE6SE8SE6SE4SE5SE4SE3SE3CalmSE3SE6SE8SE6SE7E5
1 day agoNW7N5NW3SW7CalmNW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE6
2 days agoNW3CalmCalmN5NW7W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Glymont, Maryland
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Glymont
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:33 AM EDT     2.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:21 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:10 PM EDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:52 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.11.51.8221.81.41.10.70.50.40.40.711.41.61.71.61.30.90.60.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Vernon, Virginia
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Mount Vernon
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:03 AM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:52 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:40 PM EDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:23 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.611.62.12.32.42.321.51.10.80.50.50.611.51.8221.81.40.90.60.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.