Sunday, August9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Blades, DE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 8:04PM Sunday August 9, 2020 6:53 AM EDT (10:53 UTC) Moonrise 10:23PMMoonset 10:45AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 437 Am Edt Sun Aug 9 2020
Rest of the overnight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Thu..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 437 Am Edt Sun Aug 9 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build across the waters over the next few days. A cold front will approach from the northwest next week, stalling in the area as the week progresses.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Blades, DE
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location: 38.63, -75.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 090913 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 513 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will shift off shore later today. A series of weak lows will bring chances for showers and storms starting Tuesday. A cold front is expected to approach the region Thursday into Friday, but may stall north of our area.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Fog is already starting to dissipate, so have cancelled the dense fog advisory. Patchy fog, especially in river valleys remains possible through mid morning.

Expecting mostly dry conditions through the day. However, a weak mid level shortwave trough is expected to cross the region The lift associated with this feature is rather weak, and moisture above the boundary layer remains lower than what we've seen the last several days, so I expect that any showers or storms will be isolated. Thus, have included a slight chance of showers and storms, primarily west of the 95 corridor.

Thanks to weak low level southwesterly flow, we'll see a modest warming trend today, with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/. The mid level short wave trough will be slow to exit the region. However, I don't expect showers and storms to linger much past sunset thanks to limited instability. However, it may help to limit the extent of fog (as compared to what we saw Sunday morning). Although the ground remains saturated in several locations, the lack of subsidence above the boundary layer may help to limit widespread fog and low stratus development. However, with low dew point depressions, patchy fog will be possible, especially in river valleys.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Overview:

No period looks completely dry in the long term. However, it doesn't look like we will have widespread chances for showers and storms until at least Thursday or Friday.

Details:

Monday . A low and mid level trough over the Ohio Valley could bring isolated showers and storms to the western portions of our region Monday afternoon, but most of the convection should stay to our northwest. The warming trend continues with may locations getting back into the lower 90s once again.

Tuesday and Wednesday . Two weak troughs ahead of the main cold front (more on that below) could result in showers and storms each afternoon. As mentioned by the previous shift, with abundant low level moisture in place, even weak lift could result in convective initiation. While highs each day should be at or even a few degrees lower than Monday's highs, increasing low level moisture will result in heat index values generally in the upper 90s.

Thursday through Saturday . There remains poor agreement among guidance and from run to run on the details of how the pattern will evolve at the end of the week. In the mid and upper levels, the low over Central Canada should finally start to progress east. However, at least one operational model shows the main trough digging towards our region, becoming positively tilted and stalling, which seems unlikely with the larger pattern. Other models show that trough staying well to our north with a weak southern stream low pressure system lifting into our region from the mid Mississippi Valley. With so much uncertainty in how the mid and upper level pattern will develop, other details, including timing and how far south the cold front will get before stalling, remain quite uncertain. However, even if the front stalls northwest of our region, it could be close enough to bring the next chance for a widespread rain for our region. A this point, the most likely time period for this looks to be Thursday into Friday. Given the uncertainty, have gone with a blend of guidance and the previous forecast through this period.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This morning . visibility and ceiling restrictions to LIFR are possible with both fog and low clouds. Expect the worst conditions to occur at KACY and KMIV, but the rest of the TAF sites could see periods of IFR conditions as well. Mostly light and variable winds. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on details including timing of the lowest conditions.

Today . Once the morning fog dissipates, expect VFR conditions for the remainder of the day. Winds mostly light southwesterly, but southerly or even southeasterly winds of 10 to 15 kt are possible behind a sea breeze. The sea breeze is likely to affect KACY, however it is unclear how much further inland it will reach. High confidence on all aspects except the sea breeze.

Tonight . Starting VFR. However, another round of fog is possible, reducing conditions to MVFR or even lower, generally after 06Z. Light and variable winds. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on the details of the fog.

Outlook .

Monday . Mostly VFR conditions are expected. There is a slight chance for afternoon showers and storms at KABE and KRDG. Southwesterly winds 5 to 15 kt. High confidence.

Monday night . Mostly VFR conditions expected, but patchy fog may result in MVFR or even IFR conditions. Light southerly winds. Moderate confidence on most aspects of the forecast, but low confidence on the fog potential.

Tuesday through Wednesday night . Mostly VFR conditions expected. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms, primarily in the afternoon each day which could result in brief MVFR conditions. Southerly winds up to 10 kt. Moderate confidence on most aspects of the forecast, but low confidence on the potential for storms at the TAF sites.

Thursday . Starting with VFR conditions. MVFR or even IFR conditions may develop by Thursday afternoon as the chance for showers and thunderstorms increase. Southeasterly winds 10 kt or less. Low confidence.

MARINE. Winds and seas should stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. Patchy fog is possible right along the coast both this morning and again late tonight.

Outlook .

Sunday night through Thursday . Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria. Thunderstorms are possible, especially towards the end of the week, which could produce locally higher winds and waves.

Rip Currents . There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents on Sunday and Monday. Weather conditions and waves should be similar on both days. No precipitation is anticipated. The wind is expected to favor the southeast and south at 5 to 10 MPH. Breaking waves are forecast to be less than 2 feet with a medium period swell from the southeast.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park Pennsylvania (Station WNG-704) remains off the air.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Johnson Near Term . Johnson Short Term . Johnson Long Term . Johnson Aviation . Johnson Marine . Johnson Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 26 mi59 min Calm G 1.9 74°F 83°F1020.4 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 27 mi59 min SE 1 G 1.9 71°F 76°F1020.7 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 34 mi59 min Calm G 1 73°F 74°F1021.5 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 35 mi59 min SW 6 G 7 1021.1 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi59 min NNW 4.1 G 6 78°F 83°F1020.2 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 41 mi59 min E 1 G 1.9 70°F 73°F1020.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 44 mi35 min 76°F 82°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 45 mi59 min W 4.1 G 6 1020.7 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 48 mi59 min 74°F 1021.1 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 49 mi63 min 2 ft
CPVM2 49 mi59 min 76°F 74°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 49 mi53 min WSW 7 G 8 76°F 82°F1021.2 hPa (+0.0)75°F

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE13 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair68°F68°F100%1020.6 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD21 mi59 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds70°F66°F90%1020.8 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD24 mi58 minN 09.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F68°F100%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGED

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3E5E54S3S3CalmCalmCalmE4E6E6SE8SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoE3CalmE3N3NE34SE5CalmE4E4SE10E9SE6E6NE6NE10SE8W3S9S74N6CalmNE3
2 days agoCalmN10
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Tide / Current Tables for Sharptown, Nanticoke River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Sharptown
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:48 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:41 AM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:57 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:11 PM EDT     2.60 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.40.90.60.50.71.11.62.12.42.52.31.91.40.90.50.40.60.91.522.42.62.5

Tide / Current Tables for Salisbury, Maryland (2 miles below) Current
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Salisbury
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:18 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:09 AM EDT     0.49 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:07 AM EDT     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:52 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:40 PM EDT     0.42 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:40 PM EDT     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-0.4-0.10.20.40.50.40.2-0-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.200.30.40.40.30.1-0.1-0.4-0.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.