Monday, January27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Blades, DE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:19PM Monday January 27, 2020 10:08 PM EST (03:08 UTC) Moonrise 9:03AMMoonset 8:02PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 958 Pm Est Mon Jan 27 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Rest of tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of rain and snow showers through the night.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain and snow showers through the night.
ANZ500 958 Pm Est Mon Jan 27 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Weak disturbances will pass over the area through Tuesday night. High pressure will build over the northern great lakes during the middle of the week as a cold front drops south from new england and low pressure passes well to the south near georgia.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Blades, DE
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location: 38.63, -75.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 280228 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 928 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence will slowly shift eastward through tonight. A weak cold front will move through late Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will build into the region for the middle and latter portion of the work week. Coastal low pressure may affect the area over the weekend followed by high pressure likely returning for early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. A mid level low will remain over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence tonight. The low will pull a short wave trough over our region tonight.

Clouds are lingering this evening and are expected to clear late as the short wave passes through the region.

West winds around 10 mph this evening should diminish to 5 to 10 mph through the overnight. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the middle 20s to the lower 30s in eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware and northeastern Maryland.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. We are expecting subtle mid level ridging overhead for Tuesday morning before another short wave trough begins to approach from the northwest during the afternoon. As a result, we are anticipating generally scattered cloud cover to start the day with an increase in stratocumulus in the afternoon, especially over eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey.

A northwest wind is forecast to increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts around 20 mph. Highs should be in the lower to middle 40s, with readings not getting above the 30s in the elevated terrain of the Pocono Region and far northern New Jersey.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Tuesday night through Thursday .

Tranquil, precipitation free weather expected for this part of the forecast as high pressure will be gradually building in from the north. Forecast models in good agreement on this. Temperatures will also be right around average for this time of year with both Wednesday and Thursday featuring a good deal of sunshine. High temperatures both days look to be in the 30s to low 40s.

Thursday night through Monday .

The main story for this part of the forecast continues to be the potential storm system for the weekend. There continues to be both inter and intra model variability on how this will play out but the overall idea from recent runs of the deterministic models is for full phasing of upper energy from the northern and southern streams not to occur which would result in a weaker system tracking farther east. However this could still change. In the meantime, high pressure centered over the region continues to dominate through Thursday night. The resulting clear skies and light winds should yield good radiational cooling conditions so forecast lows are a little below model consensus. Generally expect lows by Friday morning ranging from the upper teens to mid 20s.

Forecast uncertainty starts to increase heading into Friday. In the big picture, upper level pattern will be becoming more amplified with an upper level trough setting up centered from the Great Lakes south to the Gulf coast. There will be numerous shortwaves rotating through this upper level trough and an incipient low pressure system near the eastern Gulf. An inverted trough may extend north from this towards the mid Altantic. How this all jells together and whether it brings the mid Atlantic a storm system for next weekend is still very uncertain as the upper level energy that will come into play here is still over the Pacific. As early as Friday though there could be a few showers around due to the aformentioned inverted trough but this should be mainly near the coast if it occurs at all.

As already mentioned, lots of uncertainty in the forecast for next weekend. Deterministic GEM, GFS, EC currently favoring low pressure to move north and east off the coast with the brunt of the system staying out to sea as low tracks S/E of the 40/70 point lat/lon point. Some differences in timing though with the GFS showing the system's closest pass to the region during the day Saturday while the EC and GEM are about 12 hours slower. Also worth noting, several of the 0z GFS ensemble perturbations continue to show a much stronger storm system moving north along the coast or even inland so this scenario is still possible. So this all said, we continue to forecast chance POPs over the weekend with precip type tending to favor rain or at least a mix for areas near and S/E of the I-95 corridor due to lack of antecedent cold air mass.

Indications at this point are for high pressure to return early next week.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR with decreasing clouds. West to northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

Tuesday . VFR with an increase in cloud cover. Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots gusting near 20 knots.

Outlook .

Tuesday night-Wednesday night . VFR with NW winds generally 5-10 knots though Wednesday. Winds turning light northerly on Wednesday night. High confidence.

Thursday-Thursday night . VFR. Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt on Thursday becoming light and variable Thursday night. High confidence.

Friday . Mainly VFR, but MVFR is possible especially southeast of PHL and especially later in the day due to possible rain showers and low stratus. Winds light and variable. Moderate confidence.

Friday night - Saturday . Restrictions possible, mainly for I-95 TAF sites and points south and east due to potential coastal system. Low confidence.

MARINE. A west to northwest flow will continue over the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware for tonight and Tuesday. Speeds are expected to favor the 10 to 20 knot range. However, there may be some 25 knot wind gusts from late tonight into Tuesday morning in the southern part of our marine area in the wake of a mid level trough. As a result, we will issue a Small Craft Advisory for the period from midnight until noon on Tuesday. It will cover our coastal waters from the Atlantic City area southward and the lower part of Delaware Bay.

Outlook .

Tuesday night-Friday . Quiet conditions expected on the waters through this period with sub SCA conditions expected. NW winds could gust to 20 knots Tuesday night into early Wednesday with winds shifting to NE for Wednesday night and Thursday.

Friday night - Saturday . Sub SCA conditions favored but if a coastal system tracks close enough to the waters SCA winds/seas are possible.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for ANZ431-452>455.

Synopsis . Fitzsimmons Near Term . Iovino/Meola Short Term . Iovino Long Term . Fitzsimmons Aviation . Fitzsimmons/Iovino Marine . Fitzsimmons/Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 26 mi57 min WNW 12 G 17 43°F 41°F1009.6 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 27 mi51 min NW 8 G 8.9 43°F 42°F1009.1 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 34 mi57 min NNW 8.9 G 9.9 45°F 43°F1009.7 hPa
OCSM2 34 mi189 min 2 ft
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 35 mi51 min NW 7 G 8 47°F 1009.3 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi57 min NNW 6 G 8 44°F 44°F1009.4 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 41 mi51 min NNW 1 G 4.1 42°F 42°F1008.6 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 48 mi57 min WNW 11 G 12 42°F 42°F1009.1 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 49 mi79 min WNW 12 G 14 45°F 48°F2 ft1005.7 hPa (+0.6)
CPVM2 49 mi57 min 42°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 49 mi69 min W 8 G 8.9 43°F 40°F1010.9 hPa (+1.6)29°F

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE13 mi75 minNW 510.00 miOvercast45°F30°F56%1008.9 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD21 mi75 minNNW 710.00 miOvercast44°F30°F58%1009.2 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD24 mi84 minNW 1010.00 miOvercast45°F30°F57%1009.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGED

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W5CalmCalmCalmSW4SW5SW6SW6SW3SW66W9
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1 day agoW3W3W3NW4N4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmW3W56W10W9
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2 days ago----------------E13SE14S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Sharptown, Nanticoke River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Sharptown
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:54 AM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:46 AM EST     2.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:02 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:51 PM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:18 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:05 PM EST     2.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:02 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.200.51.11.72.12.11.91.50.90.3-0.1-0.200.51.21.82.32.52.421.40.7

Tide / Current Tables for Salisbury, Maryland (2 miles below) Current
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Salisbury
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:50 AM EST     0.52 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:37 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:51 AM EST     -0.83 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:02 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:15 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:06 PM EST     0.68 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:14 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:18 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:02 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:19 PM EST     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:57 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.50.50.40.2-0.1-0.5-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.4-0.10.30.60.70.60.40.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.