Sunday, September19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Blades, DE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 7:05PM Sunday September 19, 2021 9:32 AM EDT (13:32 UTC) Moonrise 5:53PMMoonset 4:06AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 735 Am Edt Sun Sep 19 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am edt this morning...
Today..N winds 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this morning. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day, then showers likely through the night.
Thu..SE winds 10 kt...becoming w. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 735 Am Edt Sun Sep 19 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build overhead later today before moving offshore Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front will push through the region mid-week, bringing the chance for sca conditions to return.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Blades, DE
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location: 38.63, -75.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 191029 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 629 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds over eastern Canada and the Northeast later today and tonight, then moves into the Gulf of Maine on Monday. High pressure remains over the western Atlantic through the end of next week. A frontal boundary approaches for the middle of the week, and slowly crosses the region at the end of the work week. Another front may pass through next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. In the wake of the cold front earlier, and with both a surface ridge a mid level ridge building starting to build over our region, expect tranquil and seasonable conditions through tonight. Temperatures today will be 5 to 10 degrees lower than Saturday's highs, with highs mostly in the 70s (though a few places could be near 80 F).

Winds will be gradually shifting from northerly to easterly, primarily late in the day into tonight. With onshore flow, risk for fog and/or low stratus increases. However, the risk for fog appears rather low tonight as the most likely areas to get close to saturation (SE NJ and northern Delmarva) should have winds stay up near 5 kt. Across NW NJ and E Central PA, where winds will be lighter, dew points should also be lower. Thus, for now I don't have a mention of fog in the forecast. As for low stratus clouds, that is possible, but given how late the onshore flow develops, it is unlikely that we will see widespread low clouds.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure will move into the Gulf of Maine on Monday and remains there through Tuesday. Onshore flow sets up across the region, and low level moisture will gradually increase across the region. Surface dew points will start out in the 50s on Monday, gradually rising through the 60s once again on Tuesday.

Plenty of sunshine and seasonal conditions expected on Monday with highs generally in the 70s. With increasing low level moisture, patchy fog possible late Monday night. On Tuesday, high temperatures will once again be in the 70s, but with increasing clouds as a frontal boundary approaches from the west.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Surface cold front with a deep upper trough dig through the central U.S., but with high pressure anchored offshore, the front looks to slow down over the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday night.

A period of unsettled weather is on tap for the midweek period, however, there is a good deal of uncertainty with specifics given the differences among the models.

A closed H5 low will pinch off of the upper trough over the great Lakes and Ohio Valley late Wednesday. The first wave of showers will approach the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. The issue over the following couple of days is that the 00Z/19 GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian all have different solutions regarding the timing and placement of the upper low. Overall, a period of showers is likely Wednesday night through Thursday, but showers may continue Thursday night and if the slower models pan out. Another concern is convection. Models indicating minimal MUCAPE, with the 00Z ECMWF on the more robust side, but still only around 600 J/kg. Given that surface dew points will be well in the 60s, possibly approaching 70, there is enough moisture available. The concern is that all of the ingredients might not come together. ECMWF indicating 80-100 kt jet, but the jet stays north of the region. GFS indicates this jet, but it is more over the Northeast, and is producing a period of heavy rain right over western and central New York and central and eastern Pennsylvania Wednesday night, then over New Jersey Thursday morning. The Canadian brings this rain which could be heavy to the region late Thursday and Thursday night. The ECMWF is not as progressive with that heavy rain, but is slower, bringing it Thursday night/Friday morning.

Feel best course of action is to cap PoPs at chance on Wednesday, then carry likely PoPs Wednesday night and Thursday. Will also add a chance for thunder Thursday afternoon, but it remains uncertain.

Cold front passes through the region by Friday morning, unless the ECMWF is correct, and in that case, it will not be until late Friday. Conditions dry out sometime Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds in from the north.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR conditions expected. Winds should primarily be northerly at 5 to 10 kt. Especially this morning, the direction could vary between 330 and 030 degrees. After 18Z, expect a slight veering to more northeasterly, especially at MIV/ACY. Moderate confidence with winds; high confidence of VFR.

Tonight . Starting VFR, and should generally stay VFR through the night. Some low clouds (with potential MVFR ceilings) are possible after 06Z, primarily at KMIV, KACY, KPHL, and KILG. Winds will settle out of the east or northeast with speeds generally 5 kt or less. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on the potential for MVFR ceilings.

Outlook .

Monday . VFR. E-SE winds 5-10 kt, except 10-15 kt at KACY. High confidence.

Monday night . VFR initially, then sub-VFR in fog/stratus. E winds 5 kt or less. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday . VFR. SE winds 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night . VFR initially, then sub-VFR possible in fog/stratus. E winds 5 kt or less. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday through Wednesday night . Overall, VFR, but scattered SHRA possible in the afternoon, then becoming likely Wednesday night with sub-VFR conditions. SE winds 10-15 kt, with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Low confidence.

Thursday . SHRA likely with sub-VFR conditions. TSRA possible in the afternoon. SE winds 10-20 kt. Low confidence.

MARINE. Winds and seas should stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. Some guidance shows seas on the NJ coastal waters getting to 5 feet this afternoon. However, that guidance is too high with current conditions, so expect that bias to continue and thus think seas should stay just below SCA criteria.

Outlook .

Tuesday-Thursday . Although winds should remain below advisory levels through the period, seas could increase to 5 feet or higher by Tuesday night and continue into Thursday.

Rip currents .

The combination of lingering swells from Odette, with developing onshore flow later today, and the full moon on Monday will result in a moderate risk for rip currents today and Monday. Although the swells should start to diminish, this tendency will be offset by the increasing onshore flow.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Spotty minor tidal flooding is possible centered around the highest astronomical tides through Monday. The combination of increased swells from Odette, higher astronomical tides with the full moon on Monday, and developing onshore flow will all contribute to this. The highest astronomical tides, and thus the higher risk for spotty minor flooding, will be the evening/overnight high tides. At this point, tidal levels just should fall just shy of advisory criteria. However, if the onshore flow develops faster than what is currently expected, there could be an increased risk for widespread minor flooding, especially with the evening/night high tide tonight.

Notably, forecasts have increased slightly for portions of the Atlantic coast in southern New Jersey and Delaware for the evening/night high tide tonight, and there is a chance an advisory may be required for these areas as well as adjacent portions of Delaware Bay during this time frame.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . MPS Near Term . Johnson Short Term . MPS Long Term . MPS Aviation . Johnson/MPS Marine . Johnson/MPS Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 26 mi45 min N 5.1 G 7 72°F 78°F1021 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 27 mi45 min N 13 G 15 72°F 75°F1020.7 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 33 mi63 min N 6 69°F 1021 hPa68°F
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 34 mi45 min NNE 11 G 15 73°F 74°F1021.3 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 35 mi51 min N 20 G 22 1021 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi51 min NNE 8.9 G 14 74°F 78°F1020.7 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 41 mi45 min N 7 G 14 71°F 74°F1020.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 44 mi39 min NNE 14 G 19 73°F 78°F1 ft1022.2 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 45 mi45 min N 12 G 14 73°F 1021 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 48 mi45 min N 12 G 15 69°F 76°F1022 hPa
CPVM2 49 mi45 min 73°F 62°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 49 mi33 min N 15 G 17 72°F 77°F1022.2 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE13 mi39 minN 610.00 miFair73°F64°F74%1020.7 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD21 mi39 minN 710.00 miFair73°F66°F79%1020.6 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD24 mi38 minNNE 810.00 miFair73°F66°F78%1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGED

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N45NW7W6NW7NW4N43CalmW3W3W3Calm3CalmCalmCalmCalmN5N5N5N5N6
1 day agoNE12NE11NE14NE12NE16NE11NE14NE11NE8NE7NE6NE6NE5NE5N5N6N4N4N4N3N4N3N4N3
2 days agoSE4E4E5E6E8E10E5E6NE6E5NE5NE7NE6NE5NE7NE8NE9NE8NE7NE9NE11NE9NE11NE11

Tide / Current Tables for Sharptown, Nanticoke River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Sharptown
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Sun -- 04:42 AM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:05 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:07 PM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:16 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.322.633.12.82.31.60.90.40.20.40.81.52.22.72.92.82.31.710.50.2

Tide / Current Tables for Salisbury, Maryland (2 miles below) Current
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Salisbury
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:58 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:17 AM EDT     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:24 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:57 AM EDT     0.59 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:57 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:28 PM EDT     -0.96 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:36 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.4-0-0.4-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.20.20.50.60.50.3-0-0.4-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.30.20.6

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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