Friday, December4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Woodbridge, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:48PM Friday December 4, 2020 7:11 PM EST (00:11 UTC) Moonrise 8:37PMMoonset 10:51AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 646 Pm Est Fri Dec 4 2020
.gale warning in effect from 1 am est Saturday through Saturday afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night...
Tonight..S winds 5 kt...becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 646 Pm Est Fri Dec 4 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure is expected to strengthen as it passes near or just south of the waters tonight into Saturday. High pressure may briefly build toward the waters Sunday before low pressure develops offshore Monday. Small craft advisories may be required at times Sunday through Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Woodbridge, VA
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location: 38.65, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 042032 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 332 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will track to our south tonight, before departing off toward the northeast tomorrow. A weak area of high pressure will build in for Sunday, before an upper- level low passes through the area Monday. High pressure will build to our south for the middle portion of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Currently low pressure at the surface is located over the Tennessee Valley. At mid-upper levels, a closed upper low is located just upstream of the surface low over the Tennessee Valley, while a larger upper level trough is situated off to our north over the Great Lakes/eastern Canada. A shortwave is descending down the backside of that trough and will start to interact with the aforementioned upper low. As these two systems interact, the trough will take on a negative tilt, allowing for rapid intensification of the surface low as it tracks just to our south.

At the moment, rain is ongoing from the WV Panhandle to northern Maryland beneath an area of confluence/frontogenetical forcing aloft. More intense rainfall is situated further off to our southwest within the region of warm advection/large scale ascent in advance of the system over the Tennessee Valley. Over the next several hours, this steadier area of rain will start to overspread the area from southwest to northeast.

Low pressure will strengthen overnight as it tracks just to our south. A steady soaking rainfall, with heavier embedded elements is expected through much of the overnight hours. The axis of heaviest rain looks like it will extend from central VA to southern Maryland, with in excess of 2 inches possible across southern Maryland. Along the I-95 corridor, around an inch of precipitation is expected. Antecedent conditions have been wet across southeastern portions of the forecast area, so a few instances of minor flooding can't be ruled out, but for the most part, flooding isn't expected to be a major issue overnight. As cold air starts to filter in later tonight, higher elevation locations along the Allegheny Front may briefly change over to snow, but any accumulation is expected to be minimal.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Low pressure is progged to be located just off the Delmarva around daybreak tomorrow. Overall, the system has trended faster, so most of the precipitation shield will have cleared the area by around daybreak. Any residual light rain and/or showers along and east of I-95 will move out of the area by mid- morning. As the area of low pressure rapidly intensifies and tracks off to the northeast, strong north to northwesterly winds will surge in behind it. While gusts should stay below Wind Advisory criteria, gusts of 30 to 40 mph appear possible at times throughout the day. After the precipitation shield clears the area, skies should gradually clear out, with dry conditions and fair weather cumulus left behind. Snow showers will remain possible along and west of the Allegheny Front as strong northwesterly flow intersects the higher terrain. On and off snow showers may last there into the nighttime hours Saturday Night, but should come to an end by Sunday as a weak area of high pressure starts to build in from the west. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected both Saturday Night and Sunday. Temperatures will run below normal, with lows Saturday Night in the 20s to lower 30s, and highs on Sunday in the lower to middle 40s. Wind chills Saturday Night will dip well into the 20s with teens possible across the higher elevations.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Uncertainty remains for Monday as to how conditions will play out. An upper level low will move in from the Midwest Monday afternoon/evening as a surface high pressure is exiting off the Mid- Atlantic coast. Latest 12z guidance from GFS and NAM are calling for a chilly but dry day ahead on Monday. Three stream features will play a pivotal role in how things play out. If these stream features are able to phase out early enough and allow for southern stream moisture to be ingested in this cold air mass as well as the presence of evaporative cooling, then frozen precip would be possible given the setup across the area. Model guidance is still fluctuating with this event, continue to follow the latest forecast for up to date guidance on this system.

Upper level low will push off the coast late Monday night into Tuesday. Surface high pressure will build in Tuesday before moving south of our area with dry conditions expected through Thursday. We'll be on a warming trend after Monday's upper level low passage with highs reaching near 50F by Thursday. Overnight lows will continue to be at our just below freezing across most areas. Could see hazard criteria winds for the middle of the workweek with a strong NW flow. Otherwise, fairly quiet extended aside from the unknowns of Monday.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Rain is ongoing at MRB, with on and off showers at MTN, and an occasional shower at IAD or BWI. This will continue through the remainder of the afternoon. A steady moderate rain will impact all terminals tonight as low pressure tracks to our south. Ceilings and visibilities are currently VFR, but will drop to sub-VFR tonight. IFR conditions appear likely at all terminals, with LIFR also possible for a time. The rain and low ceilings will pull out of the area around or just prior to sunrise as low pressure departs off to our northeast. VFR conditions are expected tomorrow. The main concern at the terminals tomorrow will be gusty winds. North to northwesterly winds of around 20 knots, with gusts to around 30 knots are expected during the daylight hours, with winds slackening off a bit by tomorrow night. VFR conditions are expected on Sunday with northwesterly winds around 10-15 knots.

Sub-VFR conditions possible Monday with any shift in the forecast for the presence of moisture but for now, VFR conditions expected for Monday and Tuesday with a return of high pressure overhead on Tuesday.

MARINE. Southwesterly winds are starting to weaken this afternoon, and should drop below SCA criteria over the next hour or two. Sub- SCA criteria winds are expected through the rest of the evening and the first half of the overnight. Winds will begin to pick up later tonight as low pressure tracks to our south, and will reach Gale magnitude in north to northwesterly flow behind it late tonight through the daylight hours tomorrow. Have started the Gale Warning at 1 AM, but it may take a few hours into the warning for winds to reach full gale strength. But when they do, it may be an abrupt transition when winds go northerly, so mariners should take caution out on the waters, and be ready for a sudden wind shift and spike in winds behind the storm.

Winds will drop to below gale levels by late tomorrow afternoon, but SCA winds will continue through tomorrow night and into at least the first half of Sunday. Winds will finally subside to sub-SCA levels by Sunday Night as a weak area of high pressure builds overhead.

SCAs possible with low pressure moving offshore Monday night into early Tuesday. NW flow continues Tuesday into Wednesday with winds possibly reaching SCA criteria.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ530>543. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ530>543. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ532>534-536-537-540>543.

SYNOPSIS . KJP NEAR TERM . KJP SHORT TERM . KJP LONG TERM . ADM AVIATION . KJP/ADM MARINE . KJP/ADM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 19 mi71 min Calm G 2.9 51°F 49°F
NCDV2 25 mi71 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 57°F 51°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 29 mi101 min SE 1.9 1014 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 43 mi53 min S 7.8 G 7.8 53°F 53°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 45 mi71 min SSE 7 G 8 53°F 51°F1015.9 hPa (-1.0)50°F
44063 - Annapolis 46 mi47 min 3.9 G 3.9 50°F 51°F1017.1 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi71 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 50°F 51°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi155 min S 12 G 15 57°F 1015.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 47 mi71 min SSW 7 G 8.9 56°F 53°F

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Belvoir, VA6 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair49°F38°F66%1014.9 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA11 mi15 minS 56.00 miLight Rain53°F48°F83%1015.1 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA17 mi15 minE 310.00 miLight Rain45°F43°F93%1015 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA18 mi19 minNNE 310.00 miOvercast50°F39°F68%1014.8 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA21 mi16 minN 010.00 miRain54°F43°F67%1015.9 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD22 mi75 minSW 310.00 miOvercast53°F41°F63%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAA

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S5S5CalmS4S3CalmS4S4S3S4CalmS3E3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW8NW4NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4S5S7S7S4S4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW7W3W4W5SW3CalmS3SW4SW3SW4SW5S4W5W5W11
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Tide / Current Tables for High Point, Occoquan Bay, Virginia
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High Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:54 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:19 AM EST     1.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:51 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:36 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:25 PM EST     1.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.50.30.10.10.20.50.91.21.41.31.10.80.50.30.10.10.20.511.41.61.61.4

Tide / Current Tables for Deep Point, Mattawoman Creek, Maryland
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Deep Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:44 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:09 AM EST     1.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:51 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:26 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:15 PM EST     1.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.50.30.10.10.20.511.31.41.31.10.80.50.20.10.10.20.61.11.51.61.61.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.