Monday, January18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Trappe, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:11PM Monday January 18, 2021 9:42 AM EST (14:42 UTC) Moonrise 10:45AMMoonset 10:54PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 641 Am Est Mon Jan 18 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt late this morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt...becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 3 ft... Subsiding to 1 ft after midnight.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 641 Am Est Mon Jan 18 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Another upper level trough will swing through the region this morning. This will bring gusty winds across the area waterways through much of the day today. High pressure builds to the south of our region through the early parts of next week. Small craft advisories likely Wednesday into Thursday, and possible again on Friday. There will also be potential gales on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trappe, MD
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location: 38.66, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 181140 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 640 AM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

SYNOPSIS. A few weak upper air disturbances will affect the weather today and into Tuesday. A weak cold front will cross the area Later Tuesday. High pressure return for the middle of the week with cold air and breezy conditions. Low pressure passes north of the area Thursday and Friday with another cold front crossing the region. High pressure returns for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Objective 00z upper-air analysis indicated a deep, positively- titled 250-mb trough extending from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf, with a 175+ kt jet streak extending from the Mid- Atlantic to the western Atlantic. Another (weaker) jet streak was digging on the upstream side of the trough in the central Plains. The 500-mb and 700-mb analyses suggested weak perturbations embedded within the large-scale troughing, with one moving through the Appalachians and another in the middle Mississippi Valley. The Appalachians vort max was responsible for the sprinkles in much of the area this past evening (and the light snow showers in the Poconos). The second perturbation will be quick on its heels this morning, likely moving through the Mid-Atlantic during the midday hours. This will likely generate another round of sprinkles (or flurries) across the northern half or so of the CWA late this morning into this afternoon, with steadier snow showers possible in the southern Poconos. Cannot rule out a stronger shower (or even a squall) in the Poconos this afternoon, with some localized minor accumulations (less than an inch) in the higher terrain, especially this afternoon as a stronger push of low-level cold advection and associated mixing reaches the far northern CWA. For the rest of the area, the weather will be rather benign today, with variable/considerable cloudiness and west winds around 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph at times. Maximum temperatures will be tempered by thicker clouds and low-level cold advection, with forecast values a couple of degrees lower than those seen yesterday.

For tonight . the vort max will move quickly offshore by this evening, with transient ridging giving way to more zonal midlevel flow. Mostly dry conditions should result. As a surface high in the Southeast progresses eastward in tandem with a weak low near the Great Lakes, a steady pressure gradient will remain across the area, so winds may not completely decouple again. Though I suspect temperatures will be a little colder than this morning (particularly given expected decrease in cloud cover), not quite sold on the colder guidance. Currently have lows in the middle 20s to around freezing in the urban corridor.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. The last of the lingering Great Lakes surface low and upper energy moves away Tue with a trailing cold front expected to cross the area. Dry weather will be across just about all of the area Tue and Tue night with perhaps a couple snow showers for the southern Poconos. Much of the same for Wednesday with the arctic air settling across the area. Lake effect snow showers may reach the southern Poconos again, but with the dry air arriving, nothing too significant is expected.

Temperatures will be a bit above average Tue and below normal for Wed. A gusty W to NW wind, especially Wed, will bring a noticeable wind chill to the area, despite the sunny conditions.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The period of dry weather continues in the long term. The one system we have been watching this past weekend is trending drier with a deepening low pressure system and not much moisture to work with. The low will track north of the Great Lakes later Thu then into New England Fri. Its associated fronts could bring some snow showers to the southern Poconos, but other than that widespread precip may have to wait until early next week.

Temperatures will be moderating Thu/Fri after the cold day Wed. Readings will reach back to near normal values Thu and a few degrees above normal for Fri. The cold air behind the aforementioned low will sweep over the region next weekend, so below normal temps and breezy conditions expected then. Highs in the 20s N/W to mid 30s S/E for next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Mainly VFR with CIGs generally 4000-8000 feet. A few sprinkles or flurries are possible, but no impacts to the terminals are expected. West winds increasing to 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt or so. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . Mainly VFR with CIGs potentially scattering. West winds generally below 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Tuesday . Generally VFR. Gusty W to NW winds.

Tuesday night through Wednesday . VFR. A couple snow showers across the southern Poconos possible. Gusty winds Wed.

Thursday through Friday . VFR. A couple snow showers far N/W possible Thu afternoon. Gusty winds.

MARINE. Sub-advisory conditions are expected this morning, but west winds will increase this afternoon as a weak system passes the area. Expecting winds 15 to 25 kt (possibly with a few higher gusts) this afternoon and this evening before a gradual weakening trend overnight on lower Delaware Bay and the Atlantic waters. Will hoist a small craft advisory beginning at 1 pm and continuing through 6 am Tuesday (though this may be a tad long in duration). Sub-advisory conditions are expected on upper Delaware Bay.

Seas should generally range from 3 to 5 feet through tonight.

Outlook .

A prolonged period of SCA conditions with 25-30 kt gusts are expected for much of the upcoming week. Cannot rule out a few gale gusts on Wednesday. Fair weather much of the week.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ431-450>455.

Synopsis . MPS/O'Hara Near Term . CMS Short Term . O'Hara Long Term . O'Hara Aviation . CMS/O'Hara Marine . CMS/O'Hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 6 mi72 min WSW 6 G 8 39°F 41°F1010.1 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 19 mi42 min W 9.7 G 9.7 39°F 41°F1 ft
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 24 mi78 min WSW 8.9 G 14 39°F 1010.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 25 mi42 min SW 8 G 8 37°F 41°F1010.8 hPa (+1.4)30°F
CPVM2 28 mi72 min 38°F 29°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 30 mi72 min W 11 G 13 41°F 41°F1009.7 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 31 mi72 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 36°F 41°F1009.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 31 mi72 min WSW 9.9 G 12 40°F 42°F1009.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi72 min SE 2.9 34°F 1009 hPa31°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 39 mi72 min W 9.9 G 12 39°F 41°F1009.6 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 44 mi72 min W 11 G 13
44042 - Potomac, MD 45 mi42 min WSW 12 G 14 39°F 42°F1011.2 hPa (+1.0)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 45 mi72 min WSW 7 G 8.9 36°F 1009.6 hPa
FSNM2 45 mi72 min W 13 G 15 38°F 1008.9 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD9 mi47 minN 010.00 miOvercast37°F34°F87%1010.2 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD10 mi57 minSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F34°F71%1011.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGE

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Oxford, Tred Avon River, Maryland
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Oxford
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Mon -- 02:05 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:19 AM EST     0.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:45 PM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:46 PM EST     1.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:54 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-0-0.1-0.10.20.50.80.90.90.70.50.2-0-0.1-0.2-0.10.20.50.91.11.210.80.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:31 AM EST     -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:40 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:33 AM EST     0.54 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:12 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:06 PM EST     -0.40 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:42 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:29 PM EST     0.44 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:32 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:55 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.20.10.40.50.50.40.30-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.20.10.30.40.40.30.1-0.1-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.