Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oxford, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:44PM Monday December 9, 2019 7:38 PM EST (00:38 UTC) Moonrise 3:19PMMoonset 4:20AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 639 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog this evening. Rain likely this evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw late. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain and snow. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Snow likely. Patchy fog.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain through the day, then showers likely through the night.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 639 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move from the great lakes into southeastern canada tonight, dragging its trailing cold front through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will follow Wednesday night through Thursday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Tuesday night and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oxford, MD
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location: 38.68, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 092124 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 424 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will continue to lift north through the area today as low pressure moves through the Great Lakes. The low passes north of the area on Tuesday, and a cold front passes through the region Tuesday evening. The mid-lvl front will lag behind the low-lvl front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, providing a focus for additional precipitation. Strong high pressure builds in from the west on Thursday and moves offshore on Friday. Low pressure affects the Northeast Friday night into Saturday, followed by high pressure for the start of the following week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. An upper level jet positioned to our west and south will continue to provide forcing for persistent stratiform rainfall through at least the evening hours. This is the period forecast to bring the highest rainfall totals through the area, with amounts of 0.50" to 1.00+" along and north/west of I-95 and less than 0.50" south/east of I-95. A warm front is lifting north through the region this afternoon and warm air advection will continue to increase as will southerly winds through the overnight period. As a result, temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 50s outside of the higher terrain by daybreak Tuesday. As the jet pivots toward our north through early Tuesday, we will lose the best forcing for widespread precipitation overnight through Tuesday morning, so a lull in the widespread rainfall is expected. However, a few showers are still possible during this period.

With continued warm air advection, temperatures will continue to rise through around noon Tuesday until the cold front arrives, peaking in the low 60s along and south/east of I-95. The front will cross the forecast area from northwest to southeast through the afternoon hours with temperatures falling and winds shifting northwest behind it. An enhancement in precipitation is forecast as the front pushes through, mainly during the afternoon. Rainfall amounts with this round of rainfall should be generally less than 0.25". Most of the rain will be moved out of the area by Tuesday evening with chances for a few lingering showers into the evening.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/. Tuesday night the surface cold front will be well off the coast with not much in the way of coverage initially expected. Late Tuesday night into very early Wednesday the 700/600 mb thermal gradient will begin to tighten as the shortwave approaches. Latest GFS and NAM FGEN fields are fairly impressive with lift increasing starting over Maryland and spreading northeast. The NAM and the other high res models are depicting this as precipitation spreading over the area rather rapidly Wednesday morning. The NAM is slightly further south with the strongest forcing for ascent compared to the GFS and ECMWF, but overall agreement is not to bad. The main concern will be precipitation type issues.

Over the southern Poconos thermal profiles support all snow for the event, but the strongest FGEN signal remains just southeast of this area. The best forcing for ascent is usually towards the warm side of the FGEN band, which would favor limiting snowfall totals here. Towards the I-95 corridor the best chance of precipitation exists, but thermal profiles initially support rain. Both the NAM and GFS show initially rain changing over to a rain/snow mix and then finally all snow. NAM forecast soundings indicate slightly stronger 700/800 mb winds and implied WAA. A brief transition to sleet is indicated via the NAM, but the most likely scenario appears to be rain/snow to snow as max temperatures aloft on the NAM seem to warm compared to the GFS and ECMWF. The most likely snowfall totals across the area are about 1 to 2" with slightly higher totals over the northwestern zones. The change over to snow and subsequent totals will be highly sensitive to the thermal profile and QPF footprint though.

Wednesday afternoon the FGEN band will head offshore with the dry conveyor belt heading east. This will bring a rapid end to the precipitation from the west. Expect highs Wednesday in the upper 30s for most of the area (colder over the southern Poconos and warmer along the coast).

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Summary: Cold and dry Thursday, warming up on Friday with rain likely Friday night into Saturday. Slightly cooler with some lingering light rain chances on Sunday, then likely dry and seasonable on Monday.

Dailies:

Thursday . Strong (1040 mb) High Pressure builds in from the west on Thursday with cold and dry conditions resulting. Although it will be mostly sunny highs will only reach the 20s in the Poconos and generally low to mid 30s elsewhere. Overnight mins will generally be in the teens to low-mid 20s, although these could be slightly warmer (particularly in the south) if low-lvl cloud cover begins to move in (as suggested by the GFS/Canadian)

Friday . The high will move into the Gulf of Maine and towards the Canadian Maritimes on Friday, with east to southeast flow developing behind the it. Temperatures warm back up to near and slightly above normal levels on (e.g. from the upper 30s in the Poconos to lower 50s in Delmarva).

Meanwhile, low pressure will develop over the southeast U.S. and begin to lift north. A warm front will develop out ahead of that low and will lift towards the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during the day Friday. Although Friday starts out dry, some light overunning precip may develop late in the day. It should be warm enough for mostly rain, but can't rule out some frozen precipitation Friday evening in the far north given that initial low-lvl wet-bulb temps will be fairly low. There are still some timing discrepancies among the global models with the CMC being very fast, the GFS intermediate, and the UKMET/EC slower. Consequently retained the thinking of the previous forecast with respect to PoPs leaving mostly slight-chance/Chc PoPs during the day on Friday, as suspect that most of the initial moisture surge will manifest itself as virga rather than measurable precip (particularly up north).

Friday night into Saturday . Guidance has come into better agreement that precipitation will be likely in the Friday night into Saturday morning timeframe as the surface low and warm (or potentially occluded front) will pass through/near our area (there are still some slight discrepancies in the low's positioning). Guidance depicts us drying fairly rapidly behind the cold front on Saturday so cut PoPs a bit after 18Z but left low-end Chc PoPs in case timing changes. We will start Saturday in the warm sector and even behind the cold front the cold advection isn't particularly extreme so most locations should top out in the 50s.

Sunday/Monday . A secondary cold front associated with the northern branch low moving over the Great Lakes will cross the area on Sunday, with maybe some light precipitation accompanying it (but suspect most of the area remains dry). Temps will be a bit cooler than Saturday but still generally mild (upper 40s to lower 50s).

Monday currently looks to be a dry day as high pressure builds near the area, while the (likely) next storm system to impact our area begins to take shape over the Southern US. Generally expect highs near climo.

AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Widespread IFR ceilings and visibilities initially will slowly improve to MVFR overnight. This transitions is forecast to occur at all terminals by 08Z. Widespread rain will continue through the evening ending around 06Z with lingering showers possible overnight. Winds will be generally southerly around 5-10 kts then increase with gusts of 20-25 kts possible overnight. Winds will begin shifting more southwesterly toward daybreak Tuesday. Moderate Confidence in forecast evolution.

Tuesday . MVFR with periods of IFR ceilings possible after 16Z. Rain showers developing after 16Z. Southwesterly winds around 10 kts turning westerly after 18Z. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Tuesday and Tuesday night . Brief VFR conditions Tuesday morning, otherwise MVFR/IFR Tuesday afternoon and night. Southwest winds abruptly shifting to the northwest Tuesday afternoon 10 to 15 kt with some gusts to 20 kt especially Tuesday afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . Widespread MVFR/IFR in rain, with a change over to snow possible at all TAF sites before ending. Conditions should gradually improve to VFR in the afternoon. West winds near 10 kt.

Thursday . VFR. Light northwest winds becoming northerly on Thursday. High Confidence.

Thursday night-Friday . Generally VFR early, but the chances for sub-VFR conditions will increase on Friday.. Light northeasterly winds Thursday night veering more easterly (around 5kts) on Friday. Moderate confidence

Friday night-Saturday . Sub VFR conditions likely Friday night/Saturday AM in rain, maybe some improvement Saturday afternoon behind a cold front.. Winds veering more southerly Saturday AM and then more westerly on Saturday afternoon. Moderate confidence

MARINE. This afternoon and tonight . A small craft advisory continues for the Atlantic coastal waters this afternoon and tonight as winds will increase to 20-25 knots, with gusts of 30 knots. Strong winds just above the surface do exist, 40 to 50 kts around 1 kft, but low level warm air advection will likely limit mixing and keep winds in SCA criteria.

OUTLOOK .

Tuesday and Tuesday night . The small craft advisory will continue through Tuesday for the Atlantic coastal waters with a diminish in winds forecast Tuesday night. Wave heights will then fall below SCA criteria Tuesday night. Current small craft advisory for the coastal waters might have to be extended for a few of hours to account for the slower timing in wave height reduction.

Wednesday . Conditions should stay below SCA criteria, though some westerly gusts to 25 kt are possible.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning . A brief period of SCA wind gusts will be possible late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the low level jet strengthens. For now the episode looks rather transient.

Thursday . Sub SCA conditions expected with northerly-northeasterly winds gusting 15-20kts.

Friday . Seas potentially increasing above SCA criteria Friday PM but uncertainty is high. Winds becoming easterly and gusting 15-20 kts by Friday afternoon.

Friday night into Saturday . Easterly winds will continue to increase Friday night with SCA conditions possible starting early Saturday morning. Elevated seas will then persist through Saturday afternoon as winds turn from the west.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Carr Near Term . Staarmann Short Term . Haines Long Term . Carr Aviation . Carr/Haines/Staarmann Marine . Haines


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 9 mi146 min 50°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 16 mi38 min SW 7.8 G 7.8 49°F 1 ft1012.6 hPa (-0.7)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 21 mi38 min SSE 13 G 14 48°F 45°F1011.5 hPa (-2.0)48°F
44063 - Annapolis 24 mi32 min SSW 7.8 G 7.8 47°F 45°F1011 hPa
CPVM2 25 mi146 min 47°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 27 mi170 min 47°F 1010.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 29 mi128 min SSE 6 46°F 1010 hPa46°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 29 mi170 min S 8.9 G 11 51°F 47°F1011.5 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 33 mi146 min 45°F1012.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 37 mi176 min S 5.1 G 8.9 47°F 45°F1011.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 42 mi176 min SSE 6 G 7 47°F 1011.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 42 mi170 min S 6 G 8
44042 - Potomac, MD 46 mi32 min 54°F 47°F954.6 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 46 mi146 min 46°F 1010.2 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi140 min 46°F 44°F

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD10 mi49 minSSW 87.00 miLight Rain54°F51°F94%1012.2 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD12 mi44 minS 8 G 1310.00 miOvercast54°F53°F100%1011.5 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD22 mi44 minS 610.00 miLight Rain50°F0°F%1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4CalmCalm--------------SW3W3W3CalmS4S6SW4S6S5SE6S6S5S7SW8
1 day agoCalmCalmCalm--------------CalmCalmCalmE3E5SE6SE10SE6S6S6S5CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW4W4W7--------------N4CalmCalmCalmN6W6NW6NW8NW7NW6N5N4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Oxford, Tred Avon River, Maryland
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Oxford
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Mon -- 12:50 AM EST     1.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:20 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:22 AM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:54 PM EST     1.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:57 PM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.110.80.50.2-0.1-0.2-0.20.10.40.91.31.51.61.51.31.10.80.50.30.30.40.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:25 AM EST     0.30 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:07 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:20 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:32 AM EST     -0.44 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:06 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:32 PM EST     0.76 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:19 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:41 PM EST     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:04 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.30.20-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-00.30.60.70.70.60.40.1-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.3-0

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.