Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Flatwoods, WV
May 4, 2024 1:54 PM EDT (17:54 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:16 AM Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 3:23 AM Moonset 3:26 PM |
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 041725 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 125 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
Upper level waves bring showers and storms at times through much of the weekend. Active weather continues into next week, with daily chances for showers and storms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 120 PM Saturday...
A moist southerly flow will combine with some upper level disturbances and afternoon heating to provide showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Chances for precipitation will lessen later tonight, but still can't be ruled out. A weak cold front then pushes into the area on Sunday, providing more showers and thunderstorms.
While much of the area remains rather dry, if thunderstorms train over an area or hit an area that previously had a significant amount of precipitation, then isolated flash flooding could occur.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 1229 PM Saturday...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue Monday with a stalled surface front over northern WV and a 500-mb shortwave approaching from the southwest. The severe weather threat still looks low Monday with weak 0-6 km shear of 15-25 kts. The threat of flooding also looks low Monday, but any storms that train over the same areas could potentially lead to localized flooding. Flash flood guidance should be high enough and storms should be isolated enough so that flooding won't be a widespread concern.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1229 PM Saturday...
The unsettled weather pattern will continue through the rest of the week with daily thunderstorm chances. However, the time to watch for severe weather and flooding potential appear to be Wednesday and possibly also on Thursday. Our region will be located in the warm sector of a strengthening mid-latitude cyclone both days. Models are showing modest 0-6 km shear of 30-40 kts. Instability looks a little more favorable Wednesday than Thursday with MLCAPE values reaching 1,000-1,500 J/kg Wednesday afternoon. In addition, models are also showing PWAT values of 1.50-1.75" Wednesday into Thursday, so the threat of flooding will have to be monitored. SPC currently has portions of southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky outlooked in a 15% threat of severe weather Wednesday, and WPC also has a marginal risk of excessive rainfall along and west of the Ohio River Wednesday.
Stay tuned for new details over the coming days. Expect high temperatures reaching the 70s-80s in the lowlands and the 70s in the mountains each day through Thursday.
Showers will remain possible Friday, but a cold front will likely pass through the region Friday afternoon from west to east, bringing drier air behind it. The pattern looks more tranquil and cooler heading into next weekend with highs back into the 60s.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 120 PM Saturday...
Showers and thunderstorms will remain a threat through the TAF period, with the better chances during the afternoon and evening hours.
While wind should prevent fog in most locations tonight, some fog is possible along the eastern slopes of the mountains, and the deeper mountain valleys of southern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia.
A weak cold front will push into the area on Sunday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms could vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY L H L M M M M M M L L M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H L L H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M L M M CKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H M H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through early next week. Fog and/or low stratus are possible Sunday night and Monday night.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 125 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
Upper level waves bring showers and storms at times through much of the weekend. Active weather continues into next week, with daily chances for showers and storms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 120 PM Saturday...
A moist southerly flow will combine with some upper level disturbances and afternoon heating to provide showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Chances for precipitation will lessen later tonight, but still can't be ruled out. A weak cold front then pushes into the area on Sunday, providing more showers and thunderstorms.
While much of the area remains rather dry, if thunderstorms train over an area or hit an area that previously had a significant amount of precipitation, then isolated flash flooding could occur.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 1229 PM Saturday...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue Monday with a stalled surface front over northern WV and a 500-mb shortwave approaching from the southwest. The severe weather threat still looks low Monday with weak 0-6 km shear of 15-25 kts. The threat of flooding also looks low Monday, but any storms that train over the same areas could potentially lead to localized flooding. Flash flood guidance should be high enough and storms should be isolated enough so that flooding won't be a widespread concern.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1229 PM Saturday...
The unsettled weather pattern will continue through the rest of the week with daily thunderstorm chances. However, the time to watch for severe weather and flooding potential appear to be Wednesday and possibly also on Thursday. Our region will be located in the warm sector of a strengthening mid-latitude cyclone both days. Models are showing modest 0-6 km shear of 30-40 kts. Instability looks a little more favorable Wednesday than Thursday with MLCAPE values reaching 1,000-1,500 J/kg Wednesday afternoon. In addition, models are also showing PWAT values of 1.50-1.75" Wednesday into Thursday, so the threat of flooding will have to be monitored. SPC currently has portions of southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky outlooked in a 15% threat of severe weather Wednesday, and WPC also has a marginal risk of excessive rainfall along and west of the Ohio River Wednesday.
Stay tuned for new details over the coming days. Expect high temperatures reaching the 70s-80s in the lowlands and the 70s in the mountains each day through Thursday.
Showers will remain possible Friday, but a cold front will likely pass through the region Friday afternoon from west to east, bringing drier air behind it. The pattern looks more tranquil and cooler heading into next weekend with highs back into the 60s.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 120 PM Saturday...
Showers and thunderstorms will remain a threat through the TAF period, with the better chances during the afternoon and evening hours.
While wind should prevent fog in most locations tonight, some fog is possible along the eastern slopes of the mountains, and the deeper mountain valleys of southern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia.
A weak cold front will push into the area on Sunday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms could vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY L H L M M M M M M L L M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H L L H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M L M M CKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H M H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through early next week. Fog and/or low stratus are possible Sunday night and Monday night.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
Airport Reports
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Charleston, WV,
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