Sunday, September19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Flatwoods, WV

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 7:24PM Sunday September 19, 2021 10:49 AM EDT (14:49 UTC) Moonrise 6:12PMMoonset 4:26AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flatwoods, WV
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location: 38.68, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 191018 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 618 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds from the north. Weak cold front remains nearly stationary south of the area through Monday. A stronger cold front crosses Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 206 AM Sunday .

A strong high pressure extending from Ontario south into the local region will maintain a weak cold front, oriented roughly west to east across extreme southern WV and northeast KY today. This scenario will keep most of our area dry, except for an isolated shower or storm across extreme southwest VA this afternoon.

Drier airmass filters in under northwest flow providing dry weather and mostly clear skies with possible river valley fog formation tonight.

Temperatures over the lowlands will range from the upper 80s, into the upper 60s higher elevations. Lows tonight generally be in the mid 60s lowlands and mid 50s higher elevations.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 300 AM Sunday .

Monday starts off quiet, however with southerly flow pumping ample moisture into the area from the deep south and Atlantic, the day might just get a little interesting. To help with this, a feature to the west, looks to be a forecast open wave, is set to meander off an upper level trough to the west. This solution will supply lift, likely enough to initiate some convection in the vicinity of our western border of the CWA, for the late morning and should through the afternoon. This feature will advect an elongated lobe of vorticity and possibly planting a few vort maxes overhead into the afternoon which will support and strengthen any thunderstorm development in their vicinity. Looks like this upper level feature will hold back most of the QPF out west leaving only some diurnal convection to add precipitation to our area. Model consensus was fairly dry into Tuesday so took a more aggressive approach and added chances for showers and storms for Monday afternoon and into the evening.

For Tuesday, chances of showers increase to our south as a low pressure system over Canada drops down a broad upper level trough coincidentally bringing a very stout cold front toward the area through the day. This will reinforce southerly flow advecting precipitation from south to north at first through Tuesday promoting numerous showers and/or storms, with most of the chances for thunderstorm activity to the western half of the CWA. Most short range models are on par with this solution although the EURO doesnt buy it. Decided to use a blend of the Canadian NH and the NAM to give Tuesday a boost, although not a complete washout, will likely be unsettled especially for the later half of the day, priming the area for Wednesdays cold frontal passage.

Chances for showers and storm will not taper off that much before the aforementioned cold front makes its way through on Wednesday promoting unsettled weather through fropa. With anomalously high PWATs near 1.75 inches and sufficient shear as long as enough instability is provide we may see some stronger storms materialize along the cold front for Wednesday afternoon. The main threat would be wind and possibly localized flooding due to heavy downpours that may progress slowly. Nonetheless, long range models are a lot more consistent than previous runs and are all on par with having this frontal band move through by the evening, although they now spin up a wave of low pressure along the front as it moves through the area. This would usually slow down the progression of the front, however models indicate that is not so and exit the front by nightfall. The sfc low will linger a bit more post-frontal passage while the upper level trough parenting these two features becomes a closed low. The low is forecast to deepen slightly before moving off to the north. Decided to leave chances of showers/storms over the area for most of Thursday which guidance did indicate although most of those chances are confined to the far northern sectors of the CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 300 AM Sunday .

After the excitement, by late Thursday, things will dry out for the area into the weekend. Long range models are in line with this solution although there will be another upper level trough swinging by the area and the GFS has some precipitation entering into our area for a quick burst for later in teh day on Saturday. Accepted guidance which kept us dry since the GFS did not convince me enough and the GFS is also an outlier out of the long range models, therefore left any chances out of the forecast around that time period. It looks like sfc high pressure will keep us relatively dry through the weekend and hopefully beyond. Temperatures will stay below seasonable through the period with very pleasant high temperatures in the 60's on Thursday.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 618 AM Sunday .

A surface high pressure provided clear skies and calm winds to produce IFR/LIFR dense fog along river valleys during the overnight hours. These areas of fog will lift into low stratus quickly and then dissipate by 13-14Z. Widespread VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of the day.

The surface high pressure, extending from Ontario, south into the Ohio Valley and WV will keep a stationary frontal boundary south of the area today. However, some showers or storms could filter into our CWA mainly across extreme southwest VA and southern WV. Any convection over our area will diminish in intensity by sunset and dissipate shortly after.

Similar conditions expected tonight with dense fog developing along river valleys and areas that received rainfall this afternoon and evening.

Winds will be light and variable.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY . FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage and intensity tonight may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SUN 09/19/21 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M L H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M M L H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M L H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M L H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY . IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday night, but likely by Wednesday.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WV . None. OH . None. KY . None. VA . None.

SYNOPSIS . ARJ/JZ NEAR TERM . ARJ SHORT TERM . JZ LONG TERM . JZ AVIATION . ARJ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elkins, Elkins-Randolph County-Jennings Randolph Field, WV36 mi59 minN 00.75 miFog/Mist62°F60°F93%1024.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEKN

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Last 24hrCalmN3CalmW6W3N4W7NW6NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SW4Calm
1 day agoCalmSE34N5SE65CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalm3SE5SE7--CalmNW4CalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

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