Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Flatwoods, WV

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 5:00PM Thursday December 12, 2019 9:15 AM EST (14:15 UTC) Moonrise 5:38PMMoonset 7:47AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flatwoods, WV
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location: 38.68, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 121126 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 626 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure through early Thursday night. Mixed precipitation system late Thursday night and Friday changing to rain. Active pattern persists through the weekend and into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 625 AM Thursday .

No changes necessary, the forecast remains on track this morning.

As of 215 AM Thursday .

High pressure and rising heights overhead early this morning will support quiet weather for the majority of the near term period. The surface high will progress into New England through the day Thursday, encouraging low level winds to shift out of the south by the afternoon. A surface trough feature aligning along the mountains will favor breezier downslope winds after midday to around 15 mph.

A chilly night is in store tonight with the high in close proximity to the forecast area and efficient radiational cooling can take place. Temperatures at the time of this issuance had already dropped down into the low 20s, with the exception of the northeast WV mountains, who has some catching up to do now that lingering evening clouds are no longer blanketing the area. By dawn, I expect portions of southeast Ohio and the mountains to fall into the upper teens. As surface winds shift into a return flow regime during the day Thursday, we should see a decent diurnal uptick by peak heating hours, leading to max temperatures in the mid to upper 40s in the lowlands and 20s/30s for the higher terrain.

Unsettled weather sneaks in for the final few hours of the near term in the form of a low pressure system developing along the Gulf Coast Thursday evening. This feature will travel across the Mississippi Valley and eventually up the eastern seaboard for the end of the work week. Moisture feeding into Central Appalachia via return flow will promote a conglomeration of showers and associated precip types, first encroaching on our southwest Virginia Counties around midnight. A nose of warm air aloft traveling up the I-79 corridor will quickly change over subfreezing temperatures in the southern coalfields and across central West Virginia, bolstering rain showers by the morning rush hour Friday morning. Meanwhile, areas along the Ohio River Valley and West Virginia mountains undertake a wintry mix beyond the near term period.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 255 AM Thursday .

Shortwave over the deep south tracks northeastward into the mid Atlantic region with one surface low over the mountains, transitioning to a low further east that will push into upstate New York.

For the western lowlands, and freezing rain/snow combination should transition quickly to all rain, so any of these elements prior to all rain should be short lived. Where the cold air damming is strongest on the eastern slopes, and extended freezing rain event is likely as 925mb-sfc temps are much slower to warm to above freezing values. Transition to all rain for these areas and the highest ridges will be in the 15-18Z Friday time frame. With this transition, and inch plus of rain is possible in the mountains. Snow amounts should be negligible overall, but some flakes are possible as this system evolves and arrives in the overnight hours into Friday morning. Secondary trough aloft and northwest flow keeps precipitation chances going through the weekend in an unsettled synoptic pattern for the region.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 255 AM Thursday .

Active pattern continues in the long term with another southern stream system moving in for the beginning of the work week. A look at the lower level temperature profile suggest another potential mixed precipitation event, but will keep the types more generic this far out. Pattern shift and colder through the middle of the week.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 625 AM Thursday .

VFR conditions prevail through majority of the day today under the influence of high pressure. Winds shift out of the south southeast by the afternoon, inflicting gusts of 15-20 kts at BKW into the evening. Clouds ease into the region tonight in advance of a weather system encroaching from the south overnight. Impacts to aviation will not be felt until Friday morning as rain and snow showers fill in further north into the area. Only site I currently have succumbing to sub-VFR conditions is BKW around 10Z Friday morning with FZRA. The bulk of flight restrictions will be included with future TAF issuances.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY . FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers may vary from the concluding hours of the current TAF issuance.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE THU 12/12/19 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY . IFR possible in rain Friday/Friday night.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WV . Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Friday for WVZ516-518-520-523-524. OH . None. KY . None. VA . None.

SYNOPSIS . 26/MEK NEAR TERM . MEK SHORT TERM . 26 LONG TERM . 26 AVIATION . MEK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elkins, Elkins-Randolph County-Jennings Randolph Field, WV36 mi24 minN 010.00 miFair22°F17°F82%1038.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEKN

Wind History from EKN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7SW9SW6W9SW9W11W8W5W6W3SW3SW44W5W4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW14
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2 days agoSE33SE4S4S5S7S10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.