Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rehoboth Beach, DE

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Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 7:50PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 8:08 AM EDT (12:08 UTC) Moonrise 10:07PMMoonset 10:49AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ454 Coastal Waters From Cape May Nj To Cape Henlopen De Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Henlopen To Fenwick Island De Out 20 Nm- 638 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft late this morning and afternoon. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this morning.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms until early morning.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of tstms early in the evening. A chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..N winds around 5 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..E winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 638 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. As a warm front lifts north of the mid-atlantic today, a surface lee trough will develop east of the appalachians. A cold front will slowly approach the region Thursday, gradually shifting south of the area Friday and Saturday. High pressure is anticipated to build into the northeast and adjacent western atlantic this weekend. The next weather system may impact the area early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rehoboth Beach, DE
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location: 38.72, -75.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 210821
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
421 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
As a warm front lifts north of the mid-atlantic today, a surface lee
trough will develop east of the appalachians. A cold front will
slowly approach the region Thursday, gradually shifting south of the
area Friday and Saturday. High pressure is anticipated to build into
the northeast and adjacent western atlantic this weekend. The next
weather system may impact the area early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible through
today across the area. The first is occurring early this morning as
a frontal boundary is drifting northward across the area and a short
wave vorticity impulse lifts across the area as well. Most shower
and thunderstorm activity has been very sporadic in nature and this
will continue through the early to mid morning hours.

The second, and more organized round of showers and thunderstorms is
possible by late this morning into this afternoon as another short
wave vorticity impulse move eastward across the area. This activity
is mostly expected to affect northeast pennsylvania and northern new
jersey.

The next round of showers and thunderstorms, and the one with the
more potential for strong to severe storms, will come later this
afternoon. A lee-side thermal trough will drift eastward from
central pennsylvania and central maryland this afternoon, while yet
another short wave vorticity impulse will slide across the area as
well. This surface trough will be the focus for showers and
thunderstorms to develop, and the short wave will enhance the lift
across the area. CAPE values build to 2,000-3,000 j kg, while shear
will increase to 25-35 knots. The best combination of shear and
instability is across the northern half of the area where SPC has a
slight risk for severe weather, but there will be enough of both to
increase the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms today across the
entire area.

Damaging winds will be the main threat across the area, although
there will continue to be a threat for hail with a fair amount of
cape above the freezing level. Another concern today will be the
potential for heavy rainfall. Pw values remain 1.75-2.00 inches, so
any thunderstorm will be efficient rain producers. There should be
decent storm motion for most storms, but if any training of storms
occurs, this could lead to higher rain amounts and localized areas
of flood could occur.

Today will be another hot and humid day across the area. The heat
advisory remains in effect for the urban corridor as heat index
values are forecast around 100 degrees. The heat advisory was also
expanded into portions of central and eastern new jersey where heat
index criteria is 100 and the heat index is forecast to reach 100
degrees.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across the area as the
surface trough continues to slowly move eastward, while the short
wave vorticity impulse aloft slides to the east. Once the short wave
passes eastward through the evening, showers and thunderstorms will
continue to dissipate through the evening and overnight. The surface
trough will likely stall out across the area during the overnight,
but once the short wave aloft passes east and the showers have
dissipated, the remainder of the overnight is expected to be dry.

There will be the potential for some areas of patchy fog later in
the overnight, especially where rainfall occurs during the afternoon
and evening hours. The most likely areas are northeastern
pennsylvania and northern new jersey.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
There is large uncertainty with the forecast Thursday onward, as
models are struggling mightily with the southward progress of
the front approaching the area to start the period and the
overall pattern that takes over starting this weekend.

A cold front will be in the process of approaching crossing the
area Thursday and Thursday night, but it will struggle owing to
boundary-parallel flow aloft. In the midlevels, a potent
shortwave trough will be shifting eastward through quebec, with
a kicker vort MAX digging southeastward through the
midwest great lakes. Models continue to be all over the place
with the progress of this kicker system, with the 00z ecmwf
clearly the slowest. The latest run mirrors a few of its past
runs, keeping the slow-moving vortex in new england through much
of the weekend. The 00z GFS is generally faster, but notably
does feature yet another perturbation digging southeastward
through new england on Saturday. Nevertheless, it is much faster
with the first kicker, which continues its insistence of
shunting the cold front to the south of the area on Friday. The
00z cmc looks fairly similar to the gfs, in general, albeit just
a tad slower with the cold-frontal passage.

Model consensus, including the ensembles, continues a slowing
trend with the front, with more of the guidance suggesting
potential for precipitation lasting through Friday night. As
such, bumped pops a little bit more through this time frame
(generally speaking), though there are some details worth
noting...

1. There will likely be a lull in precipitation Thursday
morning, perhaps lasting through much of the day, as transient
shortwave ridging occurs upstream of the shortwave trough moving
through the area today. Additionally, this will likely warm the
profile just above the boundary layer, which may preclude more
widespread diurnal convection during the afternoon.

2. There are increasing indications of a low-amplitude vort max
moving through the region Thursday night, which may coincide
with the highest precipitation chances across the CWA while the
front is in our proximity. Did not necessarily increase pops
from the previous forecast, but did broaden higher chance pops
into most of the area for this period. Though timing is not
ideal for maximum instability, the pre-frontal warm sector will
maintain sufficient potential instability for convection
overnight.

3. Though smaller-scale details differ considerably by Friday
evening, it is possible another low-amplitude vort MAX travels
along the front to produce another maximum in precipitation
during this time frame. By this point, best chances would be in
delmarva and far southern new jersey, so have maintained pops
here through Saturday morning.

With the front slow to cross the area on Thursday, temperatures
and dew points will remain high. Could see another day of
advisory-level heat indices in the urban corridor and
southward eastward. For now, held off on extending the current
advisory given lingering uncertainties with frontal placement
and potential for convection. Temperatures are still expected to
be much cooler on Friday as the front sags southward.

Presumably, high pressure will sufficiently build into the
region this weekend for the area to dry out. However, the front
remains in close enough proximity to linger some pops most of
the day in the far southern cwa. Another caveat is the closed-
off appearance of the upper low in the 00z ecmwf. Should this
occur and be in close enough proximity to the area, may see some
instability showers develop. At this point, this seems like a
low-probability outcome, so have made no mention of pops for
this scenario. However, will need to watch this potential in
later updates.

Large run-to-run consistency issues develop in the operational
models for next week. There is some signal for a low to develop
to our south, originating from weak troughing in the gulf coast
region this weekend. With weak steering flow and an evolution
primarily driven by convection, it is no wonder models are so
divergent with the evolution of this feature. More consistent is
the development of large-scale troughing in the northern u.S.

Next week, which appears to approach the northeast by midweek.

Combined with persistent antecedent onshore flow from the
surface high to our northeast, chances for precipitation appear
to increase early next week, though confidence on the details is
quite low at this point. Fairly confident temperatures will
remain seasonable beyond the weekend for quite some time, which
is most welcome as far as I am concerned.

Aviation 07z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Most places are starting offVFR, but a period of MVFR
visibilities and ceilings will be possible through the morning
hours. All areas are expected to return toVFR by late morning and
the afternoon. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms across
the area through the day today. The most likely time period is later
this afternoon into this evening. Any showers or thunderstorms will
likely lead to lower ceilings and or visibility.

Winds will be light and variable this morning, before shifting to
the south to southwest later this morning and into this afternoon.

Winds may gust 15-20 knots at times for some areas as well this
afternoon.

Tonight... Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening,
before diminishing in coverage overnight. Lower conditions will be
possible with any shower or thunderstorm, but mostlyVFR conditions
are expected for most of the night. Areas of patchy fog may develop
overnight, especially where rainfall occurs during the afternoon and
evening hours. The most likely areas are northeastern pennsylvania
and northern new jersey.

Winds will be mostly southwest 5-10 knots, before becoming light and
variable for many locations overnight.

Outlook...

Thursday... MainlyVFR, though brief restrictions may occur with
showers storms. West to southwest winds up to 10 kts.

Thursday night and Friday... Very low-confidence forecast.

Restrictions possible at times, with chances of showers storms,
especially on Thursday night. Chances become confined to south
of phl with time. Winds transitioning to north or northwest up
to 10 kts or so.

Friday night and Saturday... GenerallyVFR. Cannot rule out
showers storms south of phl, but chances appear fairly low.

North to northeast winds up to 10 kts, possibly stronger near
the coast.

Saturday night and Sunday... MainlyVFR with east to northeast
winds gradually increasing to 10 to 15 kts on Sunday, possibly
stronger near the coast.

Marine
A small craft advisory was issued for this afternoon into this
evening for the atlantic coastal waters, as well as lower delaware
bay. Winds are expected to increase to gusts of 25 knots or greater
and seas are expected to build to 5 feet on the ocean as well. The
advisory starts at 2 pm on the ocean, and 4 pm on the delaware bay,
and ends 10 pm on the bay, and 4 am on the ocean.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday... Sub-advisory winds seas expected.

Chances for showers storms through the period, but especially
Thursday night and again Friday night.

Saturday night and Sunday... Sub-advisory winds seas and mostly
fair weather expected.

Rip currents...

with winds increasing to 15-20 knots on the ocean, and seas
building to 4-5 feet with a period of 6-8 seconds, the rip
current risk will be moderate for new jersey, but remain low for
delaware.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for paz070-071-102-
104-106.

Nj... Heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this evening for
njz010-012-013-020-027.

Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for njz015-017>019.

De... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 2 am edt
Thursday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 pm edt
this evening for anz431.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Robertson
short term... Robertson
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms robertson
marine... Cms robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 5 mi50 min SW 2.9 G 7 76°F 74°F1016.3 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 18 mi50 min SE 2.9 G 6 75°F 76°F1016 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 19 mi50 min 1016.7 hPa
OCSM2 26 mi188 min 2 ft
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 27 mi78 min SSW 12 G 14 80°F 80°F2 ft1016.2 hPa (-0.0)
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 27 mi56 min SSW 9.9 G 12 76°F 74°F1017.5 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 32 mi98 min SE 1.9 72°F 1016 hPa70°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 43 mi56 min S 14 G 17 78°F 84°F1016.8 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE15 mi74 minSSW 410.00 miFair72°F72°F100%1016.4 hPa
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ22 mi72 minSSE 510.00 miA Few Clouds75°F71°F88%1016.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGED

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE3--E8SE7E8SE8E7------CalmE3CalmCalm----------Calm--SW4S4
1 day agoS4S5S6--SW6S11W10E15
G19
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2 days agoCalm----S6SE5SE8S8S7S9S6SE5S9S8SE4S5----Calm--SW5----SW4S4

Tide / Current Tables for Rehoboth Beach, Delaware
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Rehoboth Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:45 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:15 PM EDT     3.90 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:15 PM EDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.83.62.91.91.10.60.50.81.52.43.23.73.93.83.32.51.71.10.911.42.12.83.3

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:24 AM EDT     -1.13 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:16 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:23 AM EDT     1.19 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:57 PM EDT     -1.04 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:54 PM EDT     1.03 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.60.1-0.5-0.9-1.1-1.1-0.8-0.20.50.91.21.10.80.3-0.2-0.7-1-1-0.9-0.50.10.60.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.