Wednesday, September23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dunkirk, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:03PM Wednesday September 23, 2020 2:20 PM EDT (18:20 UTC) Moonrise 1:05PMMoonset 10:39PM Illumination 39% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 137 Pm Edt Wed Sep 23 2020
This afternoon..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 137 Pm Edt Wed Sep 23 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will weaken and move south of the area through tonight, then move offshore Thursday into Friday. The remnants of beta will likely pass to the south while weakening Friday into Saturday. A couple cold fronts are expected to approach from the great lakes and ohio river valley late in the weekend into early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters later Friday into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dunkirk, MD
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location: 38.72, -76.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 231344 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 944 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will weaken and move south of the area through tonight, then move offshore Thursday into Friday. The remnants of Beta will likely pass to the south while weakening Friday into Saturday. A couple cold fronts are expected to approach from the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley late in the weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. High pressure centered over the southern Appalachian Mountains will will slide eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean by Thursday morning. Winds will be westerly and warm advection should prevail. Smoke aloft may reduce insolation, but the smoke is very thin (and thinning further). Warming should be adequate to allow temps to reach around 80 in much of the region. Lows tonight will remain mild, with 50s common.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. High pressure will continue sliding east into the Atlantic Thursday. Temps will remain warm, but with a bit more cloud cover as Beta approaches, they may be a little lower than today. Lows Thursday night likely remain mild, with 50s common.

Things are looking a bit less pleasant for the end of the work week. While many models continue to keep the rain from Beta's remnants mostly south of the region, it is notable that the ECMWF has crept northward significantly, bringing steady rain across the CWA later Friday into Friday evening. Therefore, have added some chance pops up to the I-95 corridor Friday into Friday night, with slight chance pops further northwest. Highs Friday will depend greatly on how far north the rain gets, with a wetter solution likely being cooler than our forecast of upper 70s. Will continue to monitor.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. By early Saturday, the remnants of of Beta will likely be moving offshore, as guidance seems to be trending a little bit earlier over the past few model runs. High pressure will located over the western Atlantic, leading to a southerly flow over the region at the low-levels. This will lead to a continued surge of moisture into the region, and continued shower chances. Will be lowering POPs on Saturday though, as the main feature will have moved offshore pretty early in the day. Highs on Saturday will reach the upper 70s to near 80, with dew points in the mid 60s. So, it will also feel a little more humid as well.

Sunday into early next week remains somewhat uncertain in regards to the exact timing of the next two weather features. There will be 2 cold front passages between Sunday and early Wednesday. The first looks to be late Sunday, as a shortwave passes by to our north through the Great Lakes and into the northeast. Still going to maintain the current forecast for POPs and thunder on Sunday, but do think that the best upper-level energy could be just to our north. Some guidance keeps us mostly dry in our forecast area, so still some uncertainty there. For Monday and Tuesday, a much stronger shortwave will move out of central Canada into the northern Plains and then over the Great Lakes by late Tuesday. This will drag a much stronger cold front through the area sometime late Tuesday. Between these two features, expect a lull in activity, so will likely come down a little on POPs for Monday afternoon and early Tuesday. Temps will gradually be on the decrease through Tuesday, with highs dropping into the low to mid 70s by Tuesday.

Cooler air will arrive in the wake of this frontal boundary by mid-late week, as a deep trough builds over the eastern CONUS.

AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. VFR at all TAF terminals through Thursday night as high pressure lingers over the region, with winds shifting from westerly to southerly and then southeasterly. Sub-VFR possible Friday and Friday night as the remnants of Beta pass just to the south, possibly spreading rain northward into the region, with KCHO most susceptible to degradations.

Showers associated with the remnants of Beta will be moving offshore early Saturday, so VFR conditions should prevail for much of the day. A weak cold front then pushes through on Sunday, bringing a chance for showers, and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. Still some uncertainty on precipitation potential with this front, but some restrictions are possible with the frontal passage late Sunday.

MARINE. High pressure pushing south of the waters should allow flow to relax through Thursday. Southerly to easterly flow may briefly intensify later Thursday into Friday as the remnants of Beta approach from the southwest. It remains unclear as to whether gusts may reach SCA criteria as Beta passes.

Could see some gusty winds early Saturday as Beta exits off the east coast, but looks to most likely stay below SCA criteria. This will continue throughout the day on Saturday and Sunday, as high pressure sits over the western Atlantic and a cold front approaches from the west on Sunday, leading to continued southerly flow.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Widespread anomalies of around 1 foot remain across the tidal waters at this time. This will bring many sites to action stage at least through today, with the most sensitive sites possibly reaching minor again on the late day high tide. The early high tide is the lower of the two astronomically, and is not expected to reach minor at any locale.

Anomalies may be slow to drop over the next few days as flow will weaken and a significant push of water out of the bay may be difficult to come by.

EQUIPMENT. The KLWX (Sterling, VA) WSR-88D remains out of service until further notice. The outage is due to a failure within the Radar Data Acquisition Functional Area that occurred early in the morning on September 20, 2020.

Technicians from the National Weather Service Radar Operations Center will arrive in Sterling on Saturday, September 26, to diagnose the failure. At that time, they will determine the full scope of the failure, and work with WFO Sterling electronics program staff in taking subsequent maintenance actions. Action and diagnosis includes repairing the gear box and assessing the health of the bull- gear.

Users of KLWX can utilize adjacent weather radars located in Dover DE (KDOX), Mt. Holly NJ (KDIX), Pittsburgh PA (KPBZ), Charleston WV (KRLX), Blacksburg VA (KFCX), and Wakefield VA (KAKQ).

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . RCM/DHOF NEAR TERM . RCM/DHOF SHORT TERM . RCM LONG TERM . CJL AVIATION . RCM/DHOF/CJL MARINE . RCM/DHOF/CJL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . RCM EQUIPMENT . DHOF/JEL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 4 mi110 min NW 5.1 1016 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 19 mi20 min W 3.9 G 5.8 73°F 71°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 19 mi20 min WSW 5.1 G 6 73°F 70°F1015.6 hPa (-1.8)53°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 20 mi50 min NW 5.1 G 8 77°F 1015.6 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 22 mi50 min W 6 G 8.9 76°F 1014.6 hPa
CPVM2 25 mi50 min 76°F 55°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 28 mi50 min NW 4.1 G 6 1016.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 31 mi50 min W 6 G 8 74°F 1015.6 hPa
NCDV2 33 mi50 min W 2.9 G 7 74°F 1015.5 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 35 mi50 min WNW 8.9 G 13 71°F 1015.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 36 mi50 min WSW 8 G 9.9 74°F 1014.6 hPa
FSNM2 36 mi50 min WSW 8 G 11 74°F 1014.6 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 38 mi50 min WNW 5.1 G 11 77°F 1014.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi50 min WNW 13 G 16
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 42 mi50 min WSW 6 G 8 72°F 1015 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 49 mi50 min WNW 8 G 9.9 69°F 1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD12 mi24 minW 1210.00 miFair77°F50°F39%1015.4 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA20 mi28 minWSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds80°F52°F38%1015.3 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD21 mi26 minWSW 810.00 miFair76°F55°F48%1014.7 hPa
College Park Airport, MD22 mi25 minNW 510.00 miFair76°F47°F37%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KADW

Wind History from ADW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12NW8W10NW10W4SW3W4W8W6W6W5W4W5W6W5NW6NW11W5W6NW10NW8W8NW11W12
1 day agoNE8N6E5NE5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6NW6N6N7W7W7
2 days agoE10NE9E9NE8NE6NE5NE5NE4E6NE4NE4N5N6N6N6N7N8N7NE7NE11E10
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Tide / Current Tables for Nottingham, Maryland
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Nottingham
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:55 AM EDT     1.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:09 AM EDT     2.92 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:32 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:56 PM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 10:15 PM EDT     4.60 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.73.12.521.61.51.72.22.72.92.82.41.91.410.70.711.72.63.64.34.64.5

Tide / Current Tables for Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current
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Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290 true
Ebb direction 110 true

Wed -- 03:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:37 AM EDT     0.24 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:28 AM EDT     -0.38 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:44 PM EDT     0.53 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:32 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:56 PM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 11:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.20.20.20.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.20.40.50.50.50.30.1-0.1-0.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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