Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dunkirk, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:47PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 2:51 AM EST (07:51 UTC) Moonrise 4:34PMMoonset 6:28AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 1239 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 am est early this morning...
Overnight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain or snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain or snow showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of rain.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1239 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will drag its trailing cold front across the region through Wednesday. High pressure will follow Wednesday night through Thursday. Another low pressure system developing over the northern gulf of mexico will move northeastward toward the region Friday into Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday night and again Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dunkirk, MD
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location: 38.72, -76.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 110215 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 915 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will push east of the Mid Atlantic overnight allowing cold air to rush across the area. Canadian high pressure will then build across the region Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Another, stronger low pressure system will then develop in the Gulf of Mexico and push northward across the eastern United States Friday and Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 9pm, the cold front is located along the Atlantic coast, pushing offshore. Temperatures across the area still too warm to support snow for most except for the highest of ridge tops, but believe this will change rapidly based on the intensity of cold advection. Radar character suggests at least a mix possible across northern Maryland/Eastern West Virginia. In addition, forcing mechanisms aloft (right rear quad of upper jet) will be pushing in behind the front, supporting dynamic cooling as well.

As the cold air pushes in, expecting a changeover from rain to snow across much of the area as we head into late tonight and early Wednesday morning. Snow will start earliest at the higher elevations including the Blue Ridge, so snow will start there around 9-10 PM or so, with much of the rest of the area changing between midnight and 5 AM from west to east. This remains unchanged from the previous forecast.

Still some indication of dry air intrusion at the low-mid levels behind the cold front (current radar depicting some of these patches), but thinking the abundant forcing should be plenty to overcome this. Generally between I-81 and I-95, expecting 1-2 inches of accumulation, primarily on grassy surfaces. Along the I-95 corridor itself, expecting less than an inch. Along the Blue Ridge, could see areas of 3-5+ inches though, where the longest period of snow is, and the best combination of forcing mechanisms. Wet roads and warm road temperatures will likely keep accumulations off of roads. However, more intense banding is possible where the best forcing lines up, so could see a quick inch on roads for those that end up directly under any heavier band. Some of the hi-res guidance hints at strong banding over southern Maryland as well, so will need to monitor guidance trends, though surface temps exceeding 60 over southern Maryland Tuesday afternoon cast uncertainty in accumulation and impacts.

Precip moves out quickly Wednesday morning, and sunshine will return. Combined with warm ground and temps in the 30s to low 40s, much of the snow should end up melting quickly by the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Arctic high pressure will build in from the Great Lakes and Canada, then dominate Wednesday night through Thursday. Dry and cold conditions are expected during this time. Lows may reach the teens Wednesday night in spots, and highs Thursday likely stay in the 30s across much of the region.

The next system organizing near the Gulf Coast will start to bring warm advection northward Thursday night. Models are gradually coming to a better consensus with precipitation approaching the I-64 corridor by around daybreak Friday, at which time a warm nose aloft coupled with cold surface temperatures could result in freezing rain.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A shortwave moving through the broad trough over the Midwest will kick off a low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico Friday. This low is forecast to track up through the southeast. There is some slight disagreements on the exact track of the surface low between the 12Z ECMWF and GFS. The GFS keeps the low slightly further east, tracking just along the East Coast, while the ECMWF keeps the low further inland. What both models do agree on is a cold air damming signature resulting in at or near freezing temperatures for locations near and west of the Blue Ridge.

The exact track will determine for how long cold air lingers. Overall, models have been trending towards a warmer solution as southerly flow ahead of the precip shield scours out some of the cold air prior to precip onset. However, do think there will be some light freezing rain for locations west of the Blue Ridge for late Friday, continuing overnight, before changing to all rain by Saturday morning. Elsewhere, temperatures at the surface will be above freezing thus expecting a plain rain event throughout Saturday late afternoon. As the surface low shifts further northeastward and starts to occlude, additional precip due to upsloping is possible Sunday for locations mainly along and west of the Allegheny Front.

High pressure will build briefly back over our region Sunday into early Monday before a warm front lifts northward through our area Monday afternoon into Tuesday, resulting in our next chance at precipitation.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Temperatures will fall tonight as the cold front pushes through the region. Rain will change to snow at all terminals by Wednesday morning. MRB will be the first to change over, at roughly 03z, with IAD/CHO changing over between 04z-06z, and DCA/BWI/MTN changing over by 09z or so. These are rough time periods, but most guidance is in good agreement on timing at this point. Not expecting a lot of snow (<1 inch for all except MRB, who may get 1-2 inches).

VFR returns by midday Wednesday and persists through Thursday night, though a risk of FZRA exists down at CHO late Thursday night as the next system approaches.

Areas of rain and/or freezing rain will bring MVFR or IFR conditions to the terminals on Friday. Primary threat for freezing rain will be at MRB, with areas east most likely to stay all rain. Rain again on Saturday could lead to sub-VFR conditions at times.

MARINE. Northwest flow picked up behind the cold front that crossed the waters. With good mixing/strong cold advection, 20 kt gusts being realized. Have added the entire Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay/Tidal Potomac River to a Small Craft Advisory overnight, and then taper it back Wed morning as building high pressure helps the gradient relax and allow winds to drop below SCA levels. However, a reinforcing shot of cold air Wednesday night could reinvigorate the winds briefly.

As a surface low tracks through our region, gusty winds are expected over the waters Friday night into Saturday. Small Craft Advisories will be possible during this period.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Wednesday for MDZ003. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for MDZ004>006-503-505-507. VA . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ507- 508. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ025>031-040-501. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ505-506. WV . Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ050>053-055. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ530>532- 535-536-538>540. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ533-537- 541-542. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for ANZ534-543.

SYNOPSIS . HTS/CJL NEAR TERM . HTS/CJL SHORT TERM . CJL LONG TERM . JMG AVIATION . HTS/CJL/JMG MARINE . HTS/CJL/JMG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 4 mi141 min NNW 8 38°F 1021 hPa36°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 19 mi39 min N 21 G 25 38°F 1023.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 19 mi51 min WNW 19 G 23 35°F 46°F1024.6 hPa (+2.6)35°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 20 mi57 min NW 5.1 G 7 37°F 44°F1024.1 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 22 mi39 min NNW 14 G 18 36°F 46°F1023.6 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 22 mi57 min 37°F 1022.8 hPa
CPVM2 25 mi57 min 36°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 31 mi57 min N 13 G 19 39°F 48°F1022.5 hPa
NCDV2 33 mi57 min N 7 G 13 35°F 49°F1022 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 35 mi57 min NNW 15 G 22 40°F 46°F1022.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 36 mi57 min WNW 13 G 15 36°F 1023.4 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 38 mi57 min NW 4.1 G 8 36°F 46°F1023 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi57 min N 19 G 22
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 42 mi57 min NW 13 G 18 36°F 46°F1023.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 49 mi57 min NNW 15 G 21 40°F 48°F1023 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD12 mi1.9 hrsNNW 1510.00 miLight Rain Snow36°F33°F91%1021.7 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA20 mi59 minNNW 1110.00 miLight Rain Snow36°F33°F89%1024.2 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD21 mi57 minNW 10 G 208.00 miLight Snow36°F36°F100%1023.4 hPa
College Park Airport, MD22 mi75 minNW 67.00 miOvercast34°F28°F81%1023.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KADW

Wind History from ADW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE6CalmW4CalmSW4S3S6SW8S8--S5--S8S8S5S12SW11--SW15SW21
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Tide / Current Tables for Nottingham, Maryland
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Nottingham
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:33 AM EST     1.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:28 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:54 AM EST     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:25 PM EST     3.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:57 PM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.41.71.71.510.5-0-0.4-0.5-0.30.31.22.12.83.23.22.92.41.91.30.70.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current
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Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290 true
Ebb direction 110 true

Wed -- 02:09 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:05 AM EST     -0.35 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:26 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:40 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:16 AM EST     0.59 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:02 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:23 PM EST     -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:15 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.10-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.10.10.30.50.60.60.40.20-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.