Monday, August10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Easton, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 8:06PM Monday August 10, 2020 3:10 PM EDT (19:10 UTC) Moonrise 10:51PMMoonset 11:45AM Illumination 57% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 257 Pm Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely with a chance of tstms, then a chance of showers after midnight. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 257 Pm Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build across the waters through Tuesday. A cold front will approach from the northwest during the middle of the week, stalling in the area as the week progresses.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Easton, MD
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location: 38.78, -76.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 101853 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 253 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will translate offshore today and move further out to sea into Tuesday. A cold front will approach the area on Wednesday and then is expected to stall and eventually wash out in the vicinity of our area late this week. Several weak waves of low pressure will develop and move along this front through next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. A warm and humid summer day in progress with most areas heading into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Have watched the diurnal CU field grow through the day with some enhancement along the sea and bay breezes, but it has not been overly impressive. There is little to no synoptic forcing for ascent, however also little convective inhibition. So we have seen a few showers pop up this afternoon mainly along the sea and bay breezes, but activity remains very isolated. Expect this general theme to continue for the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. Where any heavier showers or storms do develop, brief gusty winds and heavy downpours are possible.

Any lingering shower or storm activity should dissipate within an hour or two of sunset as daytime heating is lost. The main concern tonight will be the potential for fog formation. With a continued weak synoptic flow pattern, we remain unable to scour out a considerable amount of low level moisture. Expect dew point depressions to quickly fall to near zero overnight. With mostly clear skies and light winds, and a lack of much if any passing shortwave energy to stir up turbulence, expect areas of fog to develop overnight. Guidance is generally avoiding showing much in the way of dense fog, but would not be surprised to see some of it. For now, have just added a generic mention of fog for the later overnight hours. With a lot of low level moisture around, lows tonight will mainly fall only into the low 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. A similar day Tuesday as on Monday. Areas of fog should mostly lift by 8 or 9 AM. Light southerly flow continues along the periphery of low amplitude western Atlantic ridging. Air mass temperatures remain about the same on Tuesday as on Monday. So we should again take aim at the upper 80s and lower 90s for highs. With the continued weak southerly flow, low level moisture remains abundant, and it will be a humid day with dew points running in the low 70s. While hot and muggy, this temperature/dew point combination still leaves us below Heat Advisory thresholds.

Like on Monday, there is little synoptic lift but also little convective inhibition on Tuesday. So once again, should see diurnal cumulus develop and probably some scattered showers and storms especially along the sea and bay breezes. Expect coverage to be similar to or slightly greater than on Monday with a little more moisture in place. Much of the hi res guidance is showing Delaware in particular as having a better chance of showers and storms, so have added some higher end chc PoP values in there. Lower end chc and slgt chc values most elsewhere. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible in any storms, but again, an isolated threat overall.

Also on Tuesday, a cold front will begin to approach the area from the west. This should lead to scattered storm development over central PA, however the better frontal forcing does not make it into our area Tuesday. By late in the afternoon or more likely the evening, some of the showers or storms from further out west may make it into the western zones, but no severe weather is anticipated. Overall, another typical summer day.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Synoptic Overview:

The general synoptic pattern over the CONUS will be fairly typical of midsummer through most of the extended period. A prominent H5 ridge will be centered over the SW US, while a second ridge will be centered just off the US SE Coast. North of these ridges a train of generally weak shortwave ridges and troughs will progress across the northern US and Canada. There is some hint of a more amplified trough approaching the Eastern US early next week but uncertainty naturally increases by this time.

At the surface a front associated with a Canadian low will approach our area towards the middle of the week. Per usual in the warm season this front will more or less stall in the vicinity of our area as the low moves well to our NE and High Pressure builds in its wake over eastern Canada ahead of a shortwave ridge. The overall pattern gets more uncertain late week as this boundary oscillates in our general vicinity and various waves of low pressure develop and move along the boundary.

Dailies:

Tuesday . Tuesday will be another warm and muggy day, with similar to if not even slightly higher heat index values as Monday. Still think we mix out enough to avoid Heat Advisory conditions, but it will need to be watched. A weak shortwave in zonal flow may generate some convection in the afternoon with activity likely focused over western portions of our area, where instability will be highest. Given the weak forcing coverage should remain isolated to scattered at best.

Wednesday . The cold front will approach the area from the north on Wednesday, with widely scattered thunderstorm development likely by the afternoon as moisture/instability pools over our area near and south of the boundary. Speaking of moisture, it will be another muggy day with heat indices once again topping out in the mid to upper 90s over much of the area.

Thursday-Saturday . The boundary will be stalled in our general vicinity (although the thermal/moisture gradient will begin to wash out) through this period. Although the exact placement of the boundary and the track of any associated frontal waves is uncertain, in general this period looks rather unsettled with storms possible every day with a max in precip chances in the diurnal convective window (e.g. the afternoon). The GFS/EC both depict PWATs over 2 inches for our area over more or less this entire time period, and that moisture combined with a nearly stationary focus for precipitation will at least warrant monitoring from a hydro perspective as we move forward. Although we will retain the higher dewpoints . abundant cloud cover/precipitation, and eventually a shift to offshore flow should keep high temperatures somewhat mild (generally low to mid 80s).

Sunday . Uncertainty increases by Sunday as the EC/CMC depict a fairly strong low (initially cold-core) developing on the boundary and moving offshore (taking most of the precipitation with it), while the GFS keeps us in the unsettled pattern for another day. Ultimately just went Chc PoPs and near-climo temps given the uncertainty

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today . Mainly VFR. There remains a low risk for an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Southwest wind 5 to 10 kt, but more southerly or southeasterly wind near the coast with a sea breeze. High confidence.

Tonight . Initially, VFR. Main concern tonight will be the potential for fog formation. Currently, it appears fog formation would occur after 06z. Some areas of dense fog with IFR or lower are likely but confidence is low in the areal coverage of dense fog. Have added a period of MVFR vsbys to all TAF sites (except IFR at ACY) but changes are likely in future updates. Winds light and variable. Moderate confidence in overall trends, low confidence in extent of fog.

Tuesday . Areas of fog could linger through around 13z. Otherwise, mainly VFR. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible mainly after 18z. Winds mainly south or south-southwest at 5 to 10 kt, but may turn more southeast at the coast in the afternoon. High confidence.

Outlook .

Wednesday . The chance of restrictions due to thunderstorms will increase Wednesday afternoon, particularly for KABE, KRDG, and the I-95 sites. Southerly winds 5-10kts. Moderate confidence.

Thursday through Friday . Periodic restrictions possible through this period with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Southerly-Southeasterly winds 10 kt or less. High confidence on storms, low confidence on timing and intensity.

MARINE.

Through Tuesday . Sub-SCA conditions are expected with seas 1 to 3 ft and winds mainly from the S or SW with speeds 10 to 15 kt. Fog development is possible tonight.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Friday . Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria through the workweek. Thunderstorms are possible, especially towards the end of the week, which could produce locally higher winds and waves.

Rip Currents .

There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents today and Tuesday. The wind is expected to favor the southeast and south around 10 MPH. Breaking waves are forecast to be less than 2 feet with a medium period swell from the southeast.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park Pennsylvania (Station WNG-704) has been returned to service.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Carr Near Term . O'Brien Short Term . O'Brien Long Term . Carr Aviation . Carr/O'Brien Marine . Carr/O'Brien Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 14 mi53 min NW 2.9 G 7 85°F 87°F1017.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 21 mi71 min SE 7 G 8 83°F 84°F1018 hPa (-1.2)78°F
CPVM2 22 mi53 min 86°F 74°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 24 mi29 min 84°F 86°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 26 mi53 min ESE 6 G 8 90°F 85°F1016.4 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 31 mi53 min SW 6 G 7 87°F 84°F1016.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi101 min SSE 4.1 1017 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 38 mi53 min SE 11 G 13 85°F 86°F1017.1 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 39 mi53 min SE 12 G 14 86°F 1016.5 hPa
FSNM2 39 mi71 min SE 12 G 13 86°F 1016.7 hPa (-1.4)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 43 mi53 min S 9.9 G 13 87°F 83°F1016.1 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD2 mi21 minSSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy93°F64°F39%1017.9 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD17 mi16 minWSW 410.00 miFair88°F75°F66%1016.6 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD19 mi16 minSSE 610.00 miFair93°F69°F47%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW5SW5S6S8S8S8S5S4SE4S3S3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmS5
1 day agoNW6W6NW3CalmCalmCalmNE3E3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm----------SW6
2 days agoCalmSE6S7S5S3N16
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Tide / Current Tables for Easton Point, Tred Avon River, Maryland
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Easton Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:50 AM EDT     1.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:49 AM EDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:27 PM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:59 PM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.61.41.31.21.31.51.822.121.71.410.80.60.60.81.21.622.32.42.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:10 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:03 AM EDT     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:52 AM EDT     0.44 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:29 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:51 PM EDT     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:28 PM EDT     0.83 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.40.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.20.40.40.30.1-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.300.40.60.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.