Sunday, November29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Huntington, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:48PM Sunday November 29, 2020 12:11 AM EST (05:11 UTC) Moonrise 4:31PMMoonset 6:14AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 1042 Pm Est Sat Nov 28 2020
Rest of tonight..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1042 Pm Est Sat Nov 28 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will briefly build overhead through the remainder of the weekend. A strong storm system will affect the region Monday and Tuesday. Gale conditions will be possible Monday, while small craft advisories will be required Monday and Tuesday, and potentially through Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Huntington, VA
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location: 38.79, -77.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 290135 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 835 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build across the region for the rest of the weekend. A strong storm system will impact our region late Sunday night through early Tuesday. High pressure builds back into our region from the south through the middle part of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. High pressure will settle overhead late tonight. With mainly clear skies and light winds, this will provide a good setup for radiational cooling. Leaned toward the chillier guidance for lows tonight. Min temps will range from the upper 20s and lower 30s for most areas, to the the upper 30/lower 40s in downtown Washington and Baltimore.

Sunday stays nice, but with clouds increasing during the afternoon, high temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler east of the Blue Ridge. The pattern favors warmer temperatures out west, with Petersburg WV possibly exceeding 60 degrees. Definitely Sunday will be less breezy than today.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. A deepening surface low will track from the Central Gulf Coast up the spine of the Appalachians Sunday night and Monday. Widespread rain will move into the area, mainly after midnight Sunday night. The heaviest rain is likely just ahead of and with the passage of the surface low on Monday morning.

The most likely rainfall is expected to be 1-2 inches, most of which falls in 6-9 hours. Can't rule out some totals over two inches and some isolated flooding, especially just east of the Blue Ridge. Confidence is too low for a Flood Watch at this time and stream guidance indicates no expected flooding presently. The pressure gradient associated with the deepening surface low will also lead to increased winds, with gusts up to 25 mph expected. Closer to the bay the winds may be even higher for a time, sustained at near 20 mph with gusts up to 30-40 mph.

The other issue, as the low passes, is a surge of unseasonably warm air (borderline hot for the end of November -- would not be surprised to see places hit 70 degrees) with the passage of a warm front. Very high shear and some modest CAPE, along with the added instability from the higher low-level temps, will promote some warm sector shower/storm development, especially during the late morning and early afternoon hours. The strongest of these could be capable of damaging winds, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out either.

In the wake of this low pressure, an upper low will be centered over the Mountain State (West Virginia) on Monday night, with low-level flow promoting upslope snow west of the Allegheny Front (continuing into Tuesday). Upped snow totals in the upslope region slightly: 1-4 in Garrett, 1-2 in far western Grant/Pendleton, and less than 1 elsewhere. Some guidance also hints at precip further east with trailing upper energy Monday night. Although I'm not yet sold on it, I've seen it happen before in this setup, and will hold on to at least slight chance PoPs all night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. An occluded surface low will be positioned near our region over the northern PA/southern NY border on Tuesday and will move slowly northeastward away from our region throughout the day. The positioning of this low will lead to a general west to northwesterly flow which will bring wrap around precip into our western upslope region. The upslope flow will likely enhance the the precipitation and combined with the near to below freezing temperatures to generate show showers along the Allegheny Front. The threat for snow showers should taper off Wednesday morning as the low to our north shifts further away from our region. The pressure surge behind the front low will lead to continued gusty winds with gusts of 20 to 25s knots possible through the evening periods on Tuesday.

A general cooling trend is expected though the middle parts of this upcoming week as a cooler air mass slowly moves into our region behind the exiting low to our north. Daytime highs will run in the 40s both Tuesday and Wednesday with overnight lows in the 20s. The surface low will be slow to exit the NE US and gusty winds will continue to be possible through Thursday morning. High pressure will build into our region from the south on Thursday and remain situated over our area through early Friday. High temperatures will trend up into the upper 40s to lower 50s on Thursday with overnight lows in the upper 20s to 30s.

Another low pressure system is forecast to impact our region toward the end of this upcoming week. Models are indicating another occluded low pressure system that rides northward along the western Appalachians on Friday and into our region on Saturday. Another period of light to moderate rain will be possible once again for our region but there remains a lot of uncertainty at this time.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The valid TAF period (through Sunday evening) should be quiet.

Rain spreads into CHO around midnight and the other terminals after midnight on Sunday night, and continues through at least midday Monday. Significant ceiling and visibility restrictions are likely: MVFR for sure and IFR most likely. Wind gusts of 20-25 knots are possible. The cig/vsby restrictions will break out in the afternoon with the passage of the low/warm front, but that comes with potential at the major airports and MTN of strong thunderstorms with further gusty winds and brief cig/vsby restrictions. Could see some ceiling restrictions on Monday night with showers and clouds given proximity to an upper level system.

With precipitation ending across area terminals, VFR conditions are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday with prevailing westerly winds each day. Gusts of 15 to 20 mph are possible at times on Tuesday.

MARINE. High pressure overhead will allow for winds to remain below SCA criteria through Sunday. The flow will turn southerly on Sunday.

Winds pick back up Sunday night ahead of an approaching strengthening storm system. SCA-level winds are likely in the open waters of the lower Maryland Bay and Tangier Sound by daybreak Monday, with winds further increasing during the morning as the strengthening low passes to the west. Gale force gusts are possible over parts of the waters on Monday, but being 48 hours away, no headlines are yet raised. Strong thunderstorms are possible mainly Monday afternoon, which could prompt Special Marine Warnings for winds and perhaps for a waterspout.

Winds will subside Monday night as the low pulls away.

SCA conditions likely on Tuesday with Small Craft conditions possible once again on Wednesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Onshore flow will increase Monday as a strong low pressure moves up the Appalachians. Current anomaly in the tidal zone is pretty consistently around 3/4 foot, and that will obviously increase with the southerly winds, to at least 1.5 to 2.0 feet. Although the ETSS and ESTOFS are in reasonable agreement, I leaned toward the higher GMU tidal guidance given the flow pattern. This yields minor tidal flooding at Annapolis, Baltimore, Bowley's Quarters, St. George Island, and Dahlgren. Too early for issuance of any advisories at this point.

As has been noted by previous forecasters, some of the ensemble guidance (Stevens System and experimental P-ETSS) have even more significant flood potential -- maybe moderate at Baltimore and Bowley's. Given the quick nature of the surge, and the potential that the highest surge could occur at low tide, the GMU guidance solution seems most reasonable at this point.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JE NEAR TERM . JE/BJL SHORT TERM . JE LONG TERM . JMG AVIATION . JE/BJL/JMG MARINE . JE/BJL/JMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . JE


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 6 mi54 min S 1 G 2.9 47°F 51°F1021.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 19 mi42 min Calm 1021 hPa
NCDV2 33 mi60 min Calm G 1 44°F 54°F1020.7 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 34 mi54 min 46°F 1020.7 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 34 mi72 min W 5.1 G 6 50°F 53°F1021.9 hPa (+1.6)31°F
44063 - Annapolis 35 mi30 min 3.9 G 3.9 49°F 53°F1023.7 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi36 min N 9.7 G 9.7 53°F 54°F
CPVM2 39 mi54 min 49°F 33°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 41 mi54 min W 4.1 G 5.1 48°F 1021.1 hPa
FSNM2 41 mi54 min WNW 6 G 7 48°F 1020.6 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 42 mi54 min W 1.9 G 4.1 47°F 54°F1020.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 46 mi54 min NNW 2.9 G 2.9 47°F 56°F1021 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA5 mi20 minNNW 310.00 miFair48°F24°F39%1021.7 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA7 mi76 minN 010.00 miFair38°F31°F78%1021.6 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD11 mi76 minNNW 410.00 miFair44°F24°F46%1021.7 hPa
College Park Airport, MD15 mi17 minN 010.00 miFair35°F28°F79%1021.7 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA23 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair35°F27°F72%1021.7 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA23 mi16 minW 410.00 miFair45°F35°F68%1021.9 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA24 mi16 minN 010.00 miFair36°F28°F76%1022.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDCA

Wind History from DCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3CalmCalmS44NW12
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NW8W13NW10NW7NW5NW7NW4NW6NW6NW6NW3
1 day agoN4N4N4N4N5N3CalmN3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N4N3N3N3E3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW4S5SW4S3S5S6SW8S10SW11W6W10W5NE3E3E3--CalmN10N7N7N7N3N5N3

Tide / Current Tables for Alexandria, Virginia
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Alexandria
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:42 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:14 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:27 AM EST     2.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:29 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:34 PM EST     2.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.20.10.411.72.22.52.421.40.80.30.10.10.51.21.92.52.82.82.51.91.3

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Vernon, Virginia
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Mount Vernon
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:17 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:14 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:02 AM EST     1.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:04 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:09 PM EST     2.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.10.10.511.51.821.81.40.90.50.20.10.20.61.21.72.12.32.11.81.30.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.