Monday, August3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mantua, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 8:19PM Monday August 3, 2020 1:46 PM EDT (17:46 UTC) Moonrise 7:45PMMoonset 4:52AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 1203 Pm Edt Mon Aug 3 2020
.tropical storm warning in effect...
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tonight..Tropical storm conditions possible. SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely in the evening, then showers with a chance of tstms after midnight.
Tue..Tropical storm conditions expected. NE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 45 kt...becoming nw 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt...diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1203 Pm Edt Mon Aug 3 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A plethora of tropical moisture will move into the area today into Tuesday ahead of tropical storm isaias. Tropical storm conditions will be possible on Tuesday, with isaias tracking northeast away from the waters Tuesday night. A stationary boundary will linger southeast of the waters through the second half of the week. Refer to the national hurricane center for the latest regarding the track of isaias.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mantua, VA
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location: 38.84, -77.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 031434 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1034 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

SYNOPSIS. Tropical Storm Isaias will move northward up the East Coast over the next two days, making its closest approach to the region on Tuesday. Refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest regarding the track of Isaias. A weak frontal boundary will position itself near the area for the middle and latter portion of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. A weak front is aligned from southwest to northeast from the central Shenandoah Valley to just southeast of the D.C. Metro area. Tropical Storm Isaias is about 100 miles to the east of Jacksonville, FL and is moving toward the north. An upper level ridge of high pressure is near Bermuda. An upper level trough of low pressure stretches north to south along the Mississippi Valley.

The front that currently bisects our region will be the focal point of developing showers and strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. We are currently in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms for our entire region through later tonight. Thunderstorms that develop this afternoon, mainly after 1pm, will be capable of producing torrential rainfall considering the rich moisture in place, as well as damaging wind gusts. There is currently around 1000 J/kg of CAPE along and south of U.S. 29. with about 20 to 30 knots of shear. We will have to keep an eye on a large area this afternoon along and east of I-81 and along and south of I-66 for strong to severe thunderstorms. As we get into this evening, the focus could shift farther to the northwest and as well to the southeast. Highs will be mostly in the upper 80s.

Tropical Storm Isaias will be pulled north by the upper trough to the west and the ridge to the east, becoming involved with, and eventually merging with, the aforementioned front. Showers and thunderstorms will then become widespread again late tonight into much of Tuesday as Isaias moves north into the region along the stalled front. This will likely result in fairly widespread heavy rain with 3-6 inches looking common in the vicinity of I-95. Thus the flash flood watch remains in effect. Tropical storm conditions (winds to 40 mph or greater) are now forecast to be farther to the west than previously expected given the updated track of Isaias. Additional tropical storm warnings will be issued accordingly. A tropical storm watch would be likely a little farther west. Clouds and rain will keep temps in the 70s tonight and prevent them from rising above the 80s on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Isaias will rapidly move north of the region Tuesday night, but upper level trough will move eastward and dominate the region through Wednesday night. Thus, temps will remain cooler (80s) during daylight, and the trough will spark some scattered showers and storms, especially during the afternoon hours. However, risks from these storms regarding both severe and flooding will be much reduced without the strong forcing mechanism of a frontal boundary or a tropical storm.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Another frontal boundary will position itself to the southeast of the CWA Thursday and Friday, allowing for daily bouts of showers and thunderstorms to ignite as the flow aloft remains weakly cyclonic. Better coverage of showers/storms is expected Friday afternoon and evening as the primary upper trough axis nears, with locations along and east of the Blue Ridge favored. The trough axis will attempt to shift through and east of the region on Saturday, allowing for drier conditions to prevail the second half of the weekend. Depending upon the exact placement of the boundary and focus of heavier rainfall each day, localized instances of flooding will be possible given what is expected to be wet antecedent conditions following Isaias. Temperatures will run on the cooler side of climo with much of the area residing north of the aforementioned boundary, slowly moderating each day/night.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. MVFR conditions at CHO with low clouds and a few showers around. Elsewhere, VFR conditions at the terminals through much of this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms could reduce to MVFR this afternoon. Storm coverage likely wanes for a time overnight before widespread rain with reduced cigs and vsby moves over the region later tonight through much of Tuesday with Isaias. Conditions should improve rapidly Tuesday evening with VFR primarily Wednesday. However, even then an isolated storm can't be ruled out as a trough lingers nearby.

A stalled frontal boundary will remain southeast of the terminals Thursday and Friday, with daily bouts of showers and thunderstorms which could deliver episodes of sub VFR conditions. Winds will be on the light side, trending out of the east on Thursday and more southerly by Friday.

MARINE. Winds will be increasing through Tuesday as Isaias moves north toward the region. SCA for this afternoon with tropical storm warnings for exposed areas tonight and especially Tuesday. Conditions subside quickly Tuesday night with light winds by Wednesday.

A light gradient will prevail over the marine district Thursday through Friday as a stationary boundary lingers to our southeast, with winds favoring an east southeast trajectory. There will be daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, with Friday having the better coverage. Stronger showers/storms will be capable of producing locally gusty winds and the potential need for Special Marine Warnings.

HYDROLOGY. Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening could create areas of localized flooding. An abundance of tropical moisture, a trough of low pressure to the west, and the approachment of Isaias has prompted a Flash Flood Watch for all of our region but the western five counties. The Flash Flood Watch is in effect from late this afternoon through the middle portion of Tuesday evening as the system passes. Guidance continues to focus on areas near the I-95 corridor with 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, so this is where confidence on flooding is highest. Much less confidence further west, but left watch as inherited until confidence in lack of flooding declines enough to cancel the westernmost zones. While the system will clear the region by Tuesday evening, larger stream and river flooding may intensify for a day or two in its wake before water levels decline by this weekend.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Southerly flow has kept tide levels elevated, but expect gauges to generally remain below flood stage today. This may change radically by Tuesday as Isaias crosses the region, so have maintained Coastal Flood Watches issued yesterday afternoon. Uncertainty is high, with some guidance suggesting the storm may pass rapidly enough to limit water rises. Hopefully the uncertainty will diminish as the timing and strength of the system becomes a bit more certain later today.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . Tropical Storm Watch for DCZ001. Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Tuesday evening for DCZ001. Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for DCZ001. MD . Tropical Storm Watch for MDZ011-013-014-016-508. Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Tuesday evening for MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508. Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508. Tropical Storm Warning for MDZ017-018. VA . Flash Flood Watch from 5 PM EDT this afternoon through Tuesday evening for VAZ025>027-029-036>040-050-051-056-507-508. Tropical Storm Watch for VAZ052>055-057. Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Tuesday evening for VAZ028-030-031-052>055-057-501-502-505-506. Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for VAZ052>055-057. WV . Flash Flood Watch from 5 PM EDT this afternoon through Tuesday evening for WVZ055. Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Tuesday evening for WVZ050>053. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ532>534-537-540>543. Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540. Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ533-534-537-541>543.

SYNOPSIS . BKF/RCM NEAR TERM . RCM/KLW SHORT TERM . RCM LONG TERM . BKF AVIATION . BKF/KLW MARINE . BKF/KLW HYDROLOGY . BKF TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . BKF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 12 mi53 min SSW 6 G 7 84°F 87°F1017.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 29 mi137 min S 4.1 1018 hPa
NCDV2 38 mi53 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 81°F 86°F1017.1 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 42 mi53 min E 6 G 8 82°F 85°F1017.6 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 43 mi47 min S 2.9 G 4.1 81°F 83°F1019 hPa (+0.0)64°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 46 mi53 min SSE 5.1 G 8 82°F 85°F1017.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 46 mi53 min SE 7 G 8 81°F 1017.8 hPa
CPVM2 47 mi53 min 83°F 67°F
FSNM2 47 mi59 min ESE 7 G 8 81°F 1017.7 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 48 mi35 min Calm G 0 82°F 86°F

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Belvoir, VA8 mi51 minSSE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F65°F53%1018.2 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA12 mi55 minS 910.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F68°F53%1017.9 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA13 mi55 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F64°F50%1017.7 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA17 mi51 minVar 610.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F66°F57%1018.2 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD20 mi51 minS 410.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F65°F55%1018.3 hPa
College Park Airport, MD20 mi72 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F61°F44%1017.6 hPa
Gaithersburg - Montgomery County Airport, MD23 mi51 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds80°F66°F62%1019.5 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA23 mi51 minNE 310.00 miA Few Clouds85°F66°F55%1017.9 hPa
Leesburg / Godfrey, VA24 mi52 minE 310.00 miFair79°F64°F61%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAA

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S6S7S5S4S4S3S5S4S6CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmSE5CalmSE3
1 day agoSE7SE7SE8SE8SE6SE6SE6E5SE5SE4SE5CalmCalmSE5SE7SE4SE4SW3S5S4S8S7S9S8
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS7SE6

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:17 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:03 AM EDT     3.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:59 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 04:05 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:35 PM EDT     3.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.510.60.30.411.92.73.33.53.32.82.21.610.40.10.31.11.92.633.12.7

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:12 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:58 AM EDT     3.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:59 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 04:00 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:30 PM EDT     3.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.510.50.30.41.122.83.33.53.32.72.11.50.90.40.10.41.122.6332.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.