Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mantua, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 4:49PM Saturday December 14, 2019 8:04 AM EST (13:04 UTC) Moonrise 7:21PMMoonset 9:33AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 637 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm est this afternoon through late tonight...
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon...
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Areas of fog this morning. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this morning.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Diminishing to 5 kt late. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely through the day.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 637 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move northeast of the region today. High pressure will briefly build overhead for Sunday before low pressure impacts the area Monday. The cold front associated with this low will pass through Tuesday. Small craft advisories may be needed again on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mantua, VA
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location: 38.84, -77.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 140904 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 404 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will move northeast of the region today. High pressure will briefly build overhead for Sunday before low pressure impacts the area Monday. The cold front associated with this low will pass through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Currently, much of the area is in a lull in precipitation, as the first batch of rainfall has pushed off to the north and east. Another batch of rain is clipping southern MD right not, but that will clear out in the next hour or two off to the east. During this lull in precipitation, there is concern for the development of some areas of fog this morning prior to sunrise. Much like yesterday evening, the rainfall we received, trapped under a substantial temperature inversion, could lead to development of some fog. That has failed to materialize thus far, but will have to watch over the next couple of hours with winds being fairly light across the region.

THe last round of precipitation is lurking off to our south and west, and is associated with the lift region ahead of the main upper level trough. This will reach southwestern portions of the forecast area over the next few hours, spreading north and east throughout the morning and early afternoon. As this occurs, any fog that does manage to form should erode away. Much of the precipitation will be gone by mid- afternoon for most areas. However, upslope precipitation should develop along the Allegheny Front during the late afternoon hours as gusty WNW winds surge into the area in the wake of the system. These upslope showers should begin to change over to snow by late afternoon or early evening as cold air filters in behind the system. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected during the late afternoon and evening hours, although winds will become gusty during the afternoon. Highs expected in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Clouds will gradually burn off overnight on Saturday, with dry conditions expected, as high pressure builds into the region. However, will still have some lingering upslope snow showers to contend with along the Allegheny Front. Low temperatures in the mid 30s can be expected overnight, except for the higher elevations of course, who will stay in the mid to upper 20s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. High pressure will continue to build over our region late Saturday and through Sunday. Should become mostly clear on Sunday with some mid to high level clouds lingering along the Allegheny Mountain range. Temperatures will be warmer in the 40s to low 50s during the day with cooler temps in the 30s for Sunday night.

A warm front will lift through our region late Sunday into early Monday. The shield of precipitation associated with this boundary will start to affect our area late Sunday evening with outer portions of the DC metro near Sunrise on Monday. Areas north and west of the I-95 corridor may experience periods of wintry mix in the form of rain, sleet, and snow, with best areas for snow being northern Maryland, Norther Virginia and West Virginia. Guidance has generally been trending a little cooler, so will have to continue watching this system for impacts farther south and east. Still a good bit of variability amongst the models, and this system will be very dependent on when warm air aloft arrives, as is often the case. So, won't be getting too specific with precipitation types at this point.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Cold front will be crossing the area Tuesday. Showers will be ending with fropa. Once again it becomes an issue of exit of showers vs arrival of cold air. At this point, will keep all precipitation as rain, except for a brief period of snow showers in the mountains.

For the rest of the week, a ridge of high pressure will provide dry albeit cool weather, with highs in the 30s to lower 40s and lows in the 20s.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Fog has held off thus far this morning, but low CIGs still keeping all terminals at IFR at this hour. Can't rule out some brief fog this morning, but thinking the winds are just enough to inhibit this, so have removed tempos for fog at DCA/BWI/IAD for the 09z amendments. One final round of precipitation crosses the terminals from mid-morning through the early afternoon hours. Conditions should improve to VFR through the afternoon behind this precipitation, and winds will shift out of the WNW and become gusty at times during the late afternoon hours. VFR conditions continue into Sunday, as high pressure briefly builds into the region.

Periods of subVFR conditions likely Monday, as another area of low pressure impacts the rejoin. Periods of wintry mix expected for MRB. IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN could see some wintry mix as well, but not as confident at this point there. This will all be in the morning, before changing to all rain by noon.

Flight restrictions likely in showers Tuesday. Could be some gusty winds (20-25 kt) too, especially along and behind the passing cold front. Gusty winds will continue into Tuesday evening, but VFR will prevail into Wednesday.

MARINE. Winds across the waters will gradually increase through the morning into early afternoon. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all water zones through tonight. Winds will increase over the central Bay and then spread north throughout the afternoon. Advisories will likely also be needed into Sunday afternoon.

Winds begin to die down Sunday evening, and should remain below SCA criteria through Monday.

Small Craft Advisories (20-25 kt gusts) likely Tuesday and Tuesday night. The gradient will relax overnight Tuesday and on Wednesday as high pressure builds.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Sunday for ANZ530>532-538>540. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Sunday for ANZ533-541-542. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ534-537-543. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ535-536.

SYNOPSIS . HTS NEAR TERM . CJL SHORT TERM . CJL LONG TERM . HTS AVIATION . HTS/CJL MARINE . HTS/CJL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 12 mi65 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 42°F 43°F999.8 hPa (-2.3)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 29 mi155 min NW 2.9 45°F 1000 hPa
NCDV2 38 mi71 min SW 1 G 1.9 43°F 46°F998.9 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 42 mi65 min 46°F 997.8 hPa (-3.3)
44063 - Annapolis 43 mi53 min NNW 3.9 G 3.9 44°F 44°F998.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 43 mi65 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 46°F 44°F999.3 hPa (-3.0)46°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 46 mi71 min N 4.1 G 7 46°F 46°F997.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 46 mi65 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 45°F 998.6 hPa (-3.2)
CPVM2 47 mi65 min 46°F
FSNM2 47 mi77 min NNW 6 G 7 46°F 997.9 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 48 mi65 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 46°F 1000.6 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Belvoir, VA8 mi69 minN 07.00 miOvercast43°F41°F93%999.6 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA12 mi73 minWNW 55.00 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist43°F42°F97%999.8 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA13 mi73 minNW 50.75 miFog/Mist39°F37°F96%1000 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA17 mi69 minN 52.00 miFog/Mist40°F39°F100%1000.7 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD20 mi69 minWSW 50.63 miFog/Mist44°F43°F99%999.8 hPa
College Park Airport, MD20 mi69 minN 01.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%999 hPa
Gaithersburg - Montgomery County Airport, MD23 mi69 minW 41.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist41°F39°F96%1000.9 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA23 mi69 minNNW 41.25 miLight Rain Fog/Mist43°F42°F97%999.9 hPa
Leesburg / Godfrey, VA24 mi70 minNNW 710.00 miOvercast36°F35°F100%1000.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAA

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4CalmNW4NW3CalmCalmCalmNW6Calm--NW5NW4W4NW7NW5NW5NW4CalmNW5W5NW4NW5CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmE3CalmS3CalmCalmS4SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW4CalmNW4
2 days agoNW6NW13NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:31 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:32 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:48 AM EST     2.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:18 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:55 PM EST     3.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.20.60.2-0.1-0.10.31.222.52.62.31.71.10.50.1-0.1-00.41.32.32.93.12.8

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:26 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:32 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:43 AM EST     2.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:13 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:50 PM EST     3.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.10.60.2-0.1-0.10.41.222.52.52.31.71.10.50.1-0.1-00.51.42.32.93.12.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.