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Marine Weather and Tides George Mason, VA Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 6:17AM

Sunset 8:11PM

Monday August 10, 2020 3:21 PM EDT (19:21 UTC)

Moonrise 10:56PM

Moonset 11:50AM

Illumination 57%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near George Mason, VA

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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington

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FXUS61 KLWX 101847 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 247 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will settle to the south of our area through tonight. A cold front will approach late Tuesday into Tuesday night and remain stalled near our area through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Temperatures have climbed into the lower 90s during these mid- afternoon hours. Given the fact that rich moisture near the ground of dewpoint temperatures in the lower to middle 70s are present, showers and a few thunderstorms are developing across parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern portions of Virginia. This activity is slow-moving and actually showing signs of producing their own surface boundaries in the form of outflow boundaries or gustfronts from their downdrafts. The importance of this is that although there are only a couple of showers and thunderstorms currently present, additional showers and thunderstorms will develop around these because of the added lift from the outflow boundaries or gustfronts. The main threat will be heavy rainfall, but also a concern may be the downburst of gusty winds from the stronger thunderstorms late this afternoon. There will be more showers and storms over the southeastern half of our CWA than our northwestern half; however, any thunderstorm that does develop over western Maryland and eastern West Virginia will have the same capabilities of producing heavy rain and gusty winds. Because of the heat and humidity, our heat indices will reach the upper 90s to low 100s.

Dry conditions expected tonight after early evening showers and thunderstorms dissipate and weak high pressure builds overhead. Fog could develop again late tonight and reduce visibility to around one-half mile to one mile near CHO and any terminal encountering an afternoon shower or thunderstorm.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. A southerly flow will continue Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Warm and moist air advection will again allow for heat index values to reach the upper 90s, maybe a few areas in the lower 100s. Upper level energy aloft and diurnal heating will allow for another day of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms as the front continues to approach our area. Drier conditions on Tuesday night.

On Wednesday, the cold front is expected to stall and linger into Wednesday night. Upper level energy will move in from the west, bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. Heat index values again will reach the upper 90s and maybe the low 100s as we remain under southerly flow.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. An upper-level trough (and perhaps even a closed upper-level low) will develop over the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley Thursday through Saturday while high pressure builds over New England. A backdoor boundary will move into the region from the Thursday and it will stall out nearby for Friday and Saturday. Tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean will get drawn into the area during this time. The 00z NAEFS forecast progs PWAT standardized anomalies to be close to +2 for this time of year.

The combination of the boundary, easterly component from the Atlantic, lower heights, and weak steering flow suggest that showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread, and also that some will contain heavy rainfall that increases the threat for flash flooding. Confidence in regards to timing and location remain low at this time. Also, it is not out of the question that a couple storms become severe, but a weak flow aloft suggests that threat would be more localized.

A stronger cold front will approach from the west Sunday before passing through Monday. This will bring the chance for more showers and thunderstorms, and with increased shear that poses a threat for severe storms. Details remain highly uncertain at this time.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR conditions expected over the terminals late this afternoon into early this evening. Any reduction to MVFR will be from a heavy shower or thunderstorm moving overhead. Any storms will be isolated to widely scattered.

By Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage during the afternoon and evening. MVFR or IFR conditions not out of the question with this convection.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be even higher Wednesday into Wednesday evening with a stalled front.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage may become more widespread for Thursday through Saturday as a backdoor cool front moves into the area Thursday and stalls out nearby for Friday and Saturday. An easterly component to the low-level flow may also increase the coverage of low clouds and subVFR conditions, especially during the overnight and morning hours each day.

MARINE. Winds will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. Winds may gust into the teens on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, but looks like they will remain below SCA criteria. Some shower and thunderstorm activity developing along a river breeze boundary or sea breeze boundary could bring gusty winds this afternoon and evening. Chances for convection increase on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a front.

A backdoor boundary will move into the area Thursday and it will stall out nearby to the south and west for Friday and Saturday. An easterly component to the wind is expected, but for the most part the gradient will be light so winds should remain below SCA criteria most of the time. Perhaps Saturday the gradient will be a bit stronger, but confidence is low.

Plenty of moisture will increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday as well.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Elevated water levels will persist over the next couple days. The flow will be relatively light, so the most likely scenario is that sensitive areas will be around action stage.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . KLW NEAR TERM . KLW SHORT TERM . KLW LONG TERM . BJL AVIATION . BJL/KLW MARINE . BJL/KLW

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC	15 mi	52 min	SSW 4.1 G 6	91°F	82°F		1016.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD	32 mi	112 min	SSE 4.1				1017 hPa
NCDV2	39 mi	52 min	ESE 9.9 G 12	86°F	90°F		1016.1 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD	45 mi	52 min	ESE 6 G 8	90°F	85°F		1016.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD	46 mi	82 min	SE 7 G 8	83°F	84°F		1018 hPa (-1.2)	78°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD	48 mi	52 min	S 11 G 13	87°F	83°F		1016 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD	49 mi	52 min	SE 12 G 14	85°F			1016.4 hPa
FSNM2	49 mi	70 min	SE 11 G 13	86°F			1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Fort Belvoir, VA	10 mi	26 min	SE 6	10.00 mi	Fair	90°F	72°F	56%	1016.5 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA	11 mi	30 min	Var 4	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	91°F	69°F	49%	1016.1 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA	14 mi	26 min	Var 6	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	91°F	72°F	54%	1016.8 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA	14 mi	30 min	S 7	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	91°F	72°F	54%	1016.2 hPa
Leesburg / Godfrey, VA	22 mi	27 min	W 3	10.00 mi	Fair	91°F	69°F	49%	1017.3 hPa
College Park Airport, MD	22 mi	47 min	NE 3	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	88°F	67°F	51%	1016.3 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD	23 mi	26 min	SSE 6	10.00 mi	Fair	90°F	70°F	53%	1016.6 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA	23 mi	26 min	S 5	9.00 mi	Fair	89°F	73°F	61%	1016.3 hPa
Gaithersburg - Montgomery County Airport, MD	24 mi	26 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	85°F	75°F	75%	1018.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAA

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.

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Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (15,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA

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