Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Calhan, CO

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 7:47PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 1:50 PM MDT (19:50 UTC) Moonrise 11:05PMMoonset 11:50AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Calhan, CO
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location: 38.85, -104     debug


Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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Fxus65 kbou 211640
afdbou
area forecast discussion
national weather service denver boulder co
1040 am mdt Wed aug 21 2019

Update
Issued at 1040 am mdt Wed aug 21 2019
forecast still on track today with scattered thunderstorms
expected to form this afternoon over the foothills. These storms
will spread east and southeast onto the urban corridor and plains
through mid evening. Ml CAPE will be 1500-2500 j kg and
precipitable water values will be around an inch, so plenty of
instability and moisture for the storms. The 0-6km bulk shear
should range 30-35 knots, which puts the storm mode in the
multicellular to supercell range. Golfball size hail or slightly
larger, wind gusts to 60 mph, and very heavy rain will be possible
with the strongest storms.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 518 am mdt Wed aug 21 2019
moist northeast flow was prevalent overnight as outflow from
thunderstorms over wyoming and western nebraska moved across the
plains. The moist airmass and upslope winds have produced low
clouds along the foothills and over the i-25 corridor. Skies
further to the east appear to be partly cloudy. Dew points across
northeast colorado are now in the mid and upper 50s with
temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Weak westerly flow aloft
is going to continue over colorado today as a weak upper level
ridge remains over the southwest united states.

Daytime heating of the moist airmass along with continuing
upslope, easterly flow will cause the airmass to de-stabilize and
produce another round of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures
will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the past couple days, due to
the rain cooled air that was pushed into the state overnight.

However, the moist airmass and vertical wind shear profile is
going to create a favorable environment for strong to possibly
severe thunderstorms to develop. The storm prediction center has
all of eastern colorado in a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms. Large hail, heavy rains and damaging winds will all
be possible with afternoon thunderstorm activity.

Warming through the day will be dependent on amount of cloud cover
that persists into the late morning. Differential heating produced
by areas of cloud cover near areas in full sunshine will produce
local boundaries for shower activity to initiate along. With the
winds at 500 mb only forecast to be 15-20 knots over northern
colorado, slow storm motions will also be possible, which will
lead to locally heavy rain showers. All in all, it could turn into
a rather active afternoon and evening, with shower activity
continuing until almost midnight on the far northeast plains.

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)
issued at 518 am mdt Wed aug 21 2019
models have the upper ridge still over the CWA on Thursday with
weak westerly flow aloft. A weak upper trough is expected to move
across the CWA on Friday. North-northwesterly flow aloft is
progged Friday night. There is weak upward energy in the synoptic
scale on the QG omega fields for the CWA Thursday through Friday
morning. The low level winds will be southeasterly over the plains
Thursday, with normal drainage patterns for all the CWA Thursday
night. East and southeasterlies are progged on Friday, with more
drainage winds Friday night. For moisture, precipitable water
values are in the 0.5 inch west to 1.10 inch east range Thursday
into Friday morning. Moisture increases a bit more Friday
afternoon and evening. There is pretty decent CAPE over all the
plains on Thursday, then over the eastern half of the plains
Thursday evening. There is pretty high CAPE around again for the
plains Friday and Friday evening. There is a cap in the lower to
mid levels according to lapse rates on cross sections both
Thursday and Friday. However they weaken considerably by mid
afternoon both days. The QPF fields show some measurable
precipitation over the eastern three quarters of the CWA late day
Thursday, but less amounts late day Friday mainly over the eastern
half of the cwa. For pops, will go with 10-30%s for late day
Thursday and 10-20%s for late day Friday. High temperatures will
be 1-4 c warmer on Thursday compared to today's highs. Friday's
readings will be 0-2 c warmer than Thursday's. For the later
days, Saturday through Tuesday, models have the upper ridge over
the southwestern u.S. With a mean trough north and east of
colorado. The CWA generally has northwesterly flow aloft Saturday
through Monday. Zonal flow aloft is progged on Tuesday. The
airmass is dry Saturday and Sunday, with some increase in
moisture on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures look hot again,
especially on Saturday and Sunday.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1040 am mdt Wed aug 21 2019
scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the foothills
this afternoon and spread east through the early evening hours.

Best chance for den to see thunderstorms will be 00z to 04z. For
kbjc and kapa the best chance will be slightly sooner 23z to 03z.

Large hail, winds to 50 knots, and heavy rainfall will accompany
the stronger storms.

Weak southeast winds will increase and turn easterly after 18z.

Outflow winds from nearby thunderstorms will produce a wind shift
or two at the denver airports today. Once convection ends this
evening, winds will settle at a southerly drainage direction at
kapa and kden. Low clouds are expected to form over eastern
colorado with ceilings of 1000-3000 feet. There is a chance these
low clouds make it far enough west to impact kden.

Bou watches warnings advisories
None.

Update... Meier
short term... Dankers
long term... Rjk
aviation... Meier


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
ELLICOTT-B AFA, CO18 mi1.9 hrsE 810.00 miFair75°F54°F48%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KABH

Wind History from ABH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5N10NW4NE5E9E8E14NE10NE13N23NE15N12N11S11NE6N6NW9N11N14N13NE10E10E8E5
1 day agoNW4CalmS6S6SW5NW3--SE13----------N7CalmN4N7CalmN4SE7SE6E5NE9N6
2 days agoSW13
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SE14E13E14E10E8SE9E9SE7CalmCalmN4N3N6W3CalmN6----

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Wind Forecast for Denver/Boulder, CO (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pueblo, CO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.