Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Calhan, CO
May 4, 2024 3:49 PM MDT (21:49 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:55 AM Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 3:59 AM Moonset 4:04 PM |
Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 042047 AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 247 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated showers and storms across the high country south of I-70 through this evening.
- Warmer and windy on Sunday.
- Periods of snow showers in the mountains late Sunday night through mid week. There could be travel impacts for the Monday morning commute along the I-70 Mountain Corridor.
- Highs winds possible in the mountains and foothills Monday into Tuesday.
- Across the plains, expect very windy conditions Monday and Tuesday with critical fire conditions across southeast Elbert and southern Lincoln counties.
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024
Satellite this afternoon shows cloud cover slowly building across southern Colorado towards the I-70 mountains, though radar remains quiet at this hour. We still expect showers to gradually increase in coverage across the high country this afternoon into the evening as better moisture slowly advects into the region. Still can't rule out a stray shower or storm making its way into the southwestern metro but chances of this remain slim. Showers should end quickly this evening/early tonight and should just about be wrapped up by midnight.
A potent storm system is expected to bring much warmer and windier conditions to the region on Sunday. A deep 500mb trough axis is forecast to track across northern California/Nevada by Sunday afternoon, with impressive southerly mid-level flow over our region. Deep mixing is anticipated during the day with highs peaking the mid/upper 70s across the plains. With 700-500mb mean winds (near the top of the boundary layer in the better mixed models) near 40-45kt, it wouldn't be surprising to get a few gusts of 50-55 mph across the plains during the afternoon/evening hours. Along the I-25 corridor, we may see a bit of protection from the strongest winds (especially up by Fort Collins), but "breezy" will still be the theme of the day.
In terms of precipitation... there won't be much, at least through the day Sunday. The better moisture/lift should remain well west of the region. A few rain or snow showers may develop across the high country in the late afternoon. The lower elevations will likely be too dry/mixed or too capped for any showers or storms during the daytime.
LONG TERM /Sunday night through Saturday/
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024
Sunday night and Monday a potent upper level storm system will move across the Central and Northern Rockies. Snow is expected to increase across the high country Sunday night as moisture and lift increase. Snowfall rates should generally be light due to poor southwesterly orographic flow. The exception may be the Park Range where a few inches of accumulation will be possible. Surface low pressure east of the Rockies should result in windy conditions across Northeastern Colorado overnight with gusts to 55 mph from a south to southeasterly direction. There should be enough lift and moisture to produce storms across the far Northeastern Plains Sunday evening. However, models are showing a very strong cap around 700 mb which should inhibit storms and keep them north and east of the state line. However, it is May and there is a remote chance that a strong elevated storm could develop over the far northern plains due to boundary interactions and moisture convergence.
On Monday, the upper level storm system moves into the Northern Great Plains States with a moderate westerly flow aloft over Colorado. This pattern should bring continued light snow in the mountains, mainly north of U.S. 40 along with breezy to windy conditions. Models are suggesting quite a bit of subsidence over the area which may result in a bora like setup resulting in cooler temperatures and breezy to windy conditions east of the divide. The strongest winds should be focused from the Front Range Mountains/Foothills into the nearby plains where winds could gust to 75 mph.
Monday night through Tuesday night, the large upper low will be centered over the Eastern Montana/Western North Dakota border with a strong westerly flow aloft over Colorado. This pattern should result in continued snow and windy conditions in the high country.
The snow may decrease in the mountains Monday evening then increase again by sunrise. With a 135KT upper jet over Central Colorado, can't rule out some localized heavy snow bands during the morning and afternoon hours on Tuesday. Further east across the plains, cool, dry and breezy condition are expected.
On Wednesday, the upper trough moves into the Midwestern States with a broad upper trough remaining over the Western and Central States.
Mid level winds and moisture are expected to decrease with only isolated to scattered light snow showers possible over the higher mountain peaks.
The weather pattern get more complicated for the Thursday through Saturday period. On Thursday, a closed upper low develops over the Intermountain West with a secondary trough over the Northern Plains States. Shortwaves on the backside of this trough may push occasional cold fronts into Northeastern Colorado resulting in cool and unsettled weather through the period.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday/
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024
VFR through the TAF period. Stratus observed this morning has quickly broken up and should completely clear out before 19z.
Southeasterly winds will persist today with occasional gusts near 20kt. An isolated shower or two can't be ruled out at BJC but we should stay dry at DEN/APA. Drainage flow tonight should be a bit stronger than typical.
Stronger flow is expected tomorrow with wind gusts steadily increasing through the day. A few wind gusts of 30-35kt will be possible, especially after 18z tomorrow.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024
Warm and windy conditions are forecast for Sunday, with a few gusts up to 50-55 mph possible across the plains. Guidance has held onto moisture in the region with mid/upper 40s dew points east of State Highway 71. There may be some locally elevated/near critical conditions across the urban corridor where there is better overlap of dry/breezy conditions, but widespread critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated.
Monday and Tuesday, very windy conditions will continue across the plains. The most likely area for critical fire conditions will be over southeast Elbert and southern Lincoln counties where relative humidity will be drop as low as 10 percent in the afternoon.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 247 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated showers and storms across the high country south of I-70 through this evening.
- Warmer and windy on Sunday.
- Periods of snow showers in the mountains late Sunday night through mid week. There could be travel impacts for the Monday morning commute along the I-70 Mountain Corridor.
- Highs winds possible in the mountains and foothills Monday into Tuesday.
- Across the plains, expect very windy conditions Monday and Tuesday with critical fire conditions across southeast Elbert and southern Lincoln counties.
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024
Satellite this afternoon shows cloud cover slowly building across southern Colorado towards the I-70 mountains, though radar remains quiet at this hour. We still expect showers to gradually increase in coverage across the high country this afternoon into the evening as better moisture slowly advects into the region. Still can't rule out a stray shower or storm making its way into the southwestern metro but chances of this remain slim. Showers should end quickly this evening/early tonight and should just about be wrapped up by midnight.
A potent storm system is expected to bring much warmer and windier conditions to the region on Sunday. A deep 500mb trough axis is forecast to track across northern California/Nevada by Sunday afternoon, with impressive southerly mid-level flow over our region. Deep mixing is anticipated during the day with highs peaking the mid/upper 70s across the plains. With 700-500mb mean winds (near the top of the boundary layer in the better mixed models) near 40-45kt, it wouldn't be surprising to get a few gusts of 50-55 mph across the plains during the afternoon/evening hours. Along the I-25 corridor, we may see a bit of protection from the strongest winds (especially up by Fort Collins), but "breezy" will still be the theme of the day.
In terms of precipitation... there won't be much, at least through the day Sunday. The better moisture/lift should remain well west of the region. A few rain or snow showers may develop across the high country in the late afternoon. The lower elevations will likely be too dry/mixed or too capped for any showers or storms during the daytime.
LONG TERM /Sunday night through Saturday/
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024
Sunday night and Monday a potent upper level storm system will move across the Central and Northern Rockies. Snow is expected to increase across the high country Sunday night as moisture and lift increase. Snowfall rates should generally be light due to poor southwesterly orographic flow. The exception may be the Park Range where a few inches of accumulation will be possible. Surface low pressure east of the Rockies should result in windy conditions across Northeastern Colorado overnight with gusts to 55 mph from a south to southeasterly direction. There should be enough lift and moisture to produce storms across the far Northeastern Plains Sunday evening. However, models are showing a very strong cap around 700 mb which should inhibit storms and keep them north and east of the state line. However, it is May and there is a remote chance that a strong elevated storm could develop over the far northern plains due to boundary interactions and moisture convergence.
On Monday, the upper level storm system moves into the Northern Great Plains States with a moderate westerly flow aloft over Colorado. This pattern should bring continued light snow in the mountains, mainly north of U.S. 40 along with breezy to windy conditions. Models are suggesting quite a bit of subsidence over the area which may result in a bora like setup resulting in cooler temperatures and breezy to windy conditions east of the divide. The strongest winds should be focused from the Front Range Mountains/Foothills into the nearby plains where winds could gust to 75 mph.
Monday night through Tuesday night, the large upper low will be centered over the Eastern Montana/Western North Dakota border with a strong westerly flow aloft over Colorado. This pattern should result in continued snow and windy conditions in the high country.
The snow may decrease in the mountains Monday evening then increase again by sunrise. With a 135KT upper jet over Central Colorado, can't rule out some localized heavy snow bands during the morning and afternoon hours on Tuesday. Further east across the plains, cool, dry and breezy condition are expected.
On Wednesday, the upper trough moves into the Midwestern States with a broad upper trough remaining over the Western and Central States.
Mid level winds and moisture are expected to decrease with only isolated to scattered light snow showers possible over the higher mountain peaks.
The weather pattern get more complicated for the Thursday through Saturday period. On Thursday, a closed upper low develops over the Intermountain West with a secondary trough over the Northern Plains States. Shortwaves on the backside of this trough may push occasional cold fronts into Northeastern Colorado resulting in cool and unsettled weather through the period.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday/
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024
VFR through the TAF period. Stratus observed this morning has quickly broken up and should completely clear out before 19z.
Southeasterly winds will persist today with occasional gusts near 20kt. An isolated shower or two can't be ruled out at BJC but we should stay dry at DEN/APA. Drainage flow tonight should be a bit stronger than typical.
Stronger flow is expected tomorrow with wind gusts steadily increasing through the day. A few wind gusts of 30-35kt will be possible, especially after 18z tomorrow.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024
Warm and windy conditions are forecast for Sunday, with a few gusts up to 50-55 mph possible across the plains. Guidance has held onto moisture in the region with mid/upper 40s dew points east of State Highway 71. There may be some locally elevated/near critical conditions across the urban corridor where there is better overlap of dry/breezy conditions, but widespread critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated.
Monday and Tuesday, very windy conditions will continue across the plains. The most likely area for critical fire conditions will be over southeast Elbert and southern Lincoln counties where relative humidity will be drop as low as 10 percent in the afternoon.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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