Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellendale, DE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:45PM Sunday August 25, 2019 6:07 PM EDT (22:07 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:59PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 325 Pm Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening...
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Tue..E winds around 10 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 325 Pm Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Surface high pressure over quebec will continue to drift eastward and weaken through the middle portion of the week. Meanwhile, an amplified shortwave trough will eject into the great lakes region by Thursday, drawing a surface low across the northern tier and a cold front through the mid-atlantic. A weak ridge of high pressure will build into the region behind this front before another front approaches the area by next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellendale, DE
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location: 38.86, -75.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 251933
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
333 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019

Synopsis
Surface high pressure over quebec will continue to drift eastward
and weaken through the middle portion of the week. Meanwhile, an
amplified shortwave trough will eject into the great lakes region by
Thursday, drawing a surface low across the northern tier and a cold
front through the mid-atlantic. A weak ridge of high pressure will
build into the region behind this front before another front
approaches the area by next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
At the surface, the dominant feature through Monday will be the high
centered over quebec and northern new england. With high pressure to
the north, the winds for our region will stay persistent
northeasterly through tonight and Monday.

Because this isn't a favorable direction for large diurnal
temperature swings, especially now with warm ocean temperatures in
place, lows tonight will likely only be 10 to 15 degrees below the
day time highs on the coastal plains - generally in the lower to mid
60s. North and west of the fall line which is less likely to see a
significant influence of the marine layer overnight, lows will be in
the 50s.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
Monday looks like a similar story to Sunday. The persistent onshore
flow continues, which will likely result in mostly cloudy conditions
on the coastal plains thanks in large part to the warm ocean
temperatures. Highs should once again be in the 70s across most of
the area. As for precipitation, much like this morning, we could see
isolated showers, generally right along the coast especially in the
morning.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
High pressure will continue to drift across southeast canada into
the canadian maritime provinces through Wednesday, leading to
continued onshore, cool flow Tuesday. A warm front will begin to
push northward, leading to showers and thunderstorms by the
afternoon. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal with cloud
cover lingering for the most part.

Temperatures will return to normal with a returning chance for
rainfall as a surface low migrates across ontario. As this low moves
toward the area, a cold front will progress eastward across the
great lakes. This will bring rainfall to the area most of the day
Wednesday with 0.5-1.5 inches of rain possible. Guidance suggests
the front will pass through the mid-atlantic sometime Wednesday
night.

Thursday through Saturday looks much nicer with seasonable highs in
the low to mid 80s and dry conditions. A front to our northwest and
a stalled front to our south will try to nudge their way toward our
region, however, they will likely interfere with each other, leading
to overall nice condition across our area.

By Sunday, another shortwave perturbation will drift across southern
canada, leading to cyclogenesis and the formation of a surface low
across southeast canada. A cold front will also move southeast with
this system, approaching our area by Sunday according to the latest
guidance. There still exists a great deal of discrepancy regarding
the timing of this with the GFS suggesting a much quicker and drier
scenario, with the front turning more zonal and dissipating by
Sunday. In terms of high temperatures and rainfall amounts, it
is still too distant to tell for sure.

Aviation 20z Sunday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... MostlyVFR conditions. Northeasterly winds should drop
below 10 kt after sunset and may shift more easterly through the
overnight hours.

Monday... MostlyVFR conditions. We could see some temporary MVFR
ceilings, especially from the delaware valley eastward between 12
and 18z, but confidence is too low to include in the tafs at this
time. Northeasterly winds of 5 to 15 kt are once again expected,
with gusts near 20 kt possible, especially for kmiv and kacy.

Outlook...

Tuesday... MostlyVFR with northeast winds 5 to 10 knots and gusts
to 15 knots.

Wednesday... MVFR possible with showers and thunderstorms. Light and
variable winds up to 5 knots.

Thursday...VFR with northwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...VFR with southwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots.

Marine
Strong northeasterly winds will continue through the day tomorrow,
so expect small craft advisory to continue at least through the day
on Monday, especially for the atlantic coastal waters.

Outlook...

Tuesday... Sub-sca conditions expected with northeast winds gusting
to 20 knots and seas generally below 5 feet. Seas may reach or
exceed 5 feet for the southern atlantic zones, however.

Wednesday... Seas 2 to 4 feet. Easterly winds 10 to 15 knots.

Thursday... Seas 1 to 3 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 knots.

Friday... Seas 1 to 3 feet. Westerly winds turning southerly 10 to 15
knots.

Rip currents...

onshore flow and rough surf, with wave heights
near or above 5 ft, will continue on Monday. Therefore, expect
moderate or high risk for the formation of dangerous rip
currents again on Monday. The elevated rip current risk may also
continue into Tuesday.

Tides coastal flooding
A brisk northeast wind is forecast to continue along the coasts of
new jersey and delaware through late Monday. The wind is expected to
become east with speeds slowly diminishing on Monday night and
Tuesday.

The onshore flow may result in spotty minor tidal flooding around
the times of the late afternoon evening high tide on Monday and
Tuesday. However, the minor flooding is not anticipated to be
widespread enough to warrant an advisory at this time.

The base level of the early morning high tides are considerably
lower than those of the late afternoon evening high tides, so no
issues are expected early in the day on Monday or Tuesday.

Once we get past the early week's onshore flow, we will begin to
experience particularly high astronomical tides associated with the
upcoming new moon phase. As a result, there is another potential for
at least some spotty minor tidal flooding from late this week into
the holiday weekend.

Equipment
The WSR-88D at dover, de (kdox), is out of service at this
time. The time when it will return is presently unknown.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... High rip current risk until 8 pm edt this evening for njz014-
024>026.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Monday for anz430-431-
450>455.

Synopsis... Davis
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... Davis
aviation... Davis johnson
marine... Davis johnson
tides coastal flooding... Iovino
equipment... Davis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 16 mi97 min NE 1.9 74°F 1022 hPa60°F
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 18 mi49 min ENE 25 G 27 71°F 75°F1021.7 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 20 mi49 min 1022 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 27 mi49 min NE 17 G 24 72°F 74°F1021.2 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 31 mi55 min ENE 11 G 14 74°F 80°F1022.7 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 38 mi55 min ENE 14 G 17 74°F 79°F1021 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 41 mi55 min NNE 9.9 G 15 73°F 73°F1021.6 hPa
OCSM2 41 mi187 min 5 ft
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 48 mi77 min N 23 G 29 72°F 76°F8 ft1019.5 hPa (-0.6)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 49 mi55 min 74°F 81°F1021.7 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi55 min ENE 2.9 G 9.9 75°F 80°F1021.9 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE12 mi73 minENE 16 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F62°F69%1021.7 hPa
Dover Air Force Base, DE19 mi2.2 hrsNE 910.00 miOvercast73°F56°F56%1022 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGED

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6NE4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3NE10N6N10NE14NE20
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1 day agoN6N6N3N4NW3N3NW3NW3N4N4N5N4N3N7N5NE9E10NE13
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2 days agoSW6SW4S4SW3SW6N4CalmCalmSW3SW3CalmCalmCalmNW3W3N6N8N12NE13NE10N8N11N7N6

Tide / Current Tables for Mispillion River entrance, Delaware Bay, Delaware
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Mispillion River entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:35 AM EDT     4.05 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:01 AM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:12 PM EDT     5.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.82.63.4443.73.12.31.50.80.60.91.72.83.94.95.35.24.63.82.81.71

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:39 AM EDT     0.98 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:34 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:51 AM EDT     -1.00 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:47 PM EDT     1.42 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:07 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:57 PM EDT     -1.28 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.60.910.70.3-0.2-0.7-0.9-1-0.8-0.40.30.91.31.41.10.70.1-0.5-0.9-1.2-1.3-1.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.