Tuesday, September17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellendale, DE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 7:09PM Tuesday September 17, 2019 12:53 AM EDT (04:53 UTC) Moonrise 8:11PMMoonset 8:45AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 1206 Am Edt Tue Sep 17 2019
Rest of tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less. Isolated showers.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Tue night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves around 3 ft early in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 1206 Am Edt Tue Sep 17 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A weakening low pressure system will move into the mid atlantic region today, pushing a frontal boundary to our south. High pressure builds across the northeast states on Tuesday into Wednesday, then shifts southward across the mid atlantic region Thursday. The high is forecast to shift to our south Friday, then offshore over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellendale, DE
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location: 38.86, -75.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 170133
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
933 pm edt Mon sep 16 2019

Synopsis
A weakening low pressure system will move into the mid atlantic
region today, pushing a frontal boundary to our south. High
pressure builds across the northeast states on Tuesday into
Wednesday, then shifts southward across the mid atlantic region
Thursday. The high is forecast to shift to our south Friday,
then offshore over the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
A cold front continues to slowly push southward through the
forecast area this evening and is expected to move south of the
area during the overnight period. There is some modest deep
layer moisture over the area with pwats around 1.5 inches,
however most of this moisture is concentrated in the 850 to
700mb layer (near current cloud bases) with drier air in place
near the surface. Consequently don't expect much rainfall with
this boundary due to the dry low-lvls and the mid- upper lvl
dynamics associated displaced north of the area. Nevertheless
deferred somewhat to the cam simulations and went with generally
isolated pops through the period, gradually shifting southward
with the boundary. Guidance does indicate a subtle shortwave
moving into DELMARVA after midnight which could ignite or re-
ignite the showers, but still don't expect anything significant.

Otherwise expect mostly cloudy conditions to prevail, with
clouds gradually clearing from north to south through the
overnight (although some clouds will likely remain over delmarva
into Tuesday morning).

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
High pressure builds to our north tomorrow, with a drier and
cooler northeasterly flow prevailing. It should be a relatively
pleasant day with abundant sunshine and highs in the mid to
upper 70s with fairly low humidity.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
Current long range forecast looks on track with a relatively
tranquil pattern through the weekend.

High pressure is forecast to build across new england Tuesday night
into Wednesday, then shift southward across the mid atlantic region
on Thursday. The high is then expected to build to our south on
Friday, then offshore of the southeast states over the weekend. With
high pressure and its subsidence near the east coast for the rest of
the week into the weekend, dry conditions are currently forecast,
although there will likely be periods of cloud cover at times.

A cold front will approach the area from the west on Monday, and a
pre-frontal trough may develop ahead of the front. There is a slight
chance that showers may accompany this trough and frontal passage
late Monday.

Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal Wednesday and
Thursday, before rising back above normal Friday, and especially
over weekend into Monday.

Aviation 02z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... VFR conditions expected. Isolated showers will be
possible but don't expect any operational impacts. Light and
variable winds generally becoming prevailing northeast 5-10 kts
through tonight.

Tuesday...VFR conditions expected with northeasterly winds
around 10 kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday night-Saturday... GenerallyVFR conditions with light winds.

Marine
Winds and seas will gradually increase Tuesday, potentially
approaching SCA criteria by Tuesday afternoon on atlantic
waters. Seas will generally run 4-5 ft with northeasterly winds
gusting around 20 kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday night-Thursday... Small craft advisory conditions likely as
wind gusts increase to around 25 knots and seas increase to 5-8 feet
for portions of the atlantic coastal waters.

Thursday night-Saturday... Winds lower below advisory levels,
however, seas will average 6 to 10 feet for the atlantic coastal
waters.

Rip currents...

a moderate risk of rip currents is anticipated for Tuesday as
northeasterly winds increase to 15-20kts and seas build to
4-5ft. An elevated risk of rip currents (e.G. Either moderate or
high) will likely persist through much of the week.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Carr meola
short term... Carr
long term... Franklin robertson
aviation... Carr robertson meola
marine... Carr franklin robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 18 mi53 min Calm G 2.9 74°F 76°F1016.2 hPa (+0.4)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 20 mi53 min 1016.7 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 27 mi53 min ENE 1 G 1.9 72°F 76°F1016 hPa (+0.5)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 31 mi59 min ENE 7 G 8 71°F 77°F1017.4 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 38 mi59 min E 4.1 G 5.1 74°F 78°F1015.7 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 41 mi59 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 74°F 76°F1016.5 hPa
OCSM2 41 mi173 min 2 ft
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 48 mi63 min E 5.8 G 5.8 73°F 74°F3 ft1015.7 hPa (+0.0)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 49 mi59 min 71°F 77°F1016.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi59 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 72°F 78°F1016.4 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE12 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miOvercast72°F68°F87%1016 hPa
Dover Air Force Base, DE19 mi2 hrsENE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F65°F80%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGED

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----Calm--Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalm--Calm--S4SE3E5E10----SE5--E3SE3Calm
1 day ago----S4Calm----Calm--SW4--SW4W44--NE7E6NE6SE5SE4S3S3Calm----
2 days ago------------CalmCalmCalm--S8S8SW5SW9S5S10S12S9S7S7S7S5----

Tide / Current Tables for Mispillion River entrance, Delaware Bay, Delaware
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Mispillion River entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:48 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:39 AM EDT     5.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:11 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:57 PM EDT     4.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.94.43.52.41.40.70.511.93.14.255.14.73.92.91.80.90.50.81.52.63.74.5

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:28 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:46 AM EDT     -1.31 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:33 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:36 AM EDT     1.34 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:10 PM EDT     -1.25 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:00 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:00 PM EDT     1.25 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.3-0.9-1.2-1.3-1-0.40.30.91.31.310.5-0.1-0.7-1.1-1.2-1.1-0.7-00.61.11.21.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.