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Marine Weather and Tides Arlington, VA Version 3.4

NOTICE 3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone. 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:02AM

Sunset 8:27PM

Sunday July 25, 2021 11:17 AM EDT (15:17 UTC)

Moonrise 9:01PM

Moonset 6:28AM

Illumination 98%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arlington, VA

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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington

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FXUS61 KLWX 251411 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1011 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will reside offshore as low pressure tracks across southern Canada today while its associated warm front lifts into New England. A cold front will then push southeastward from the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley through this evening, dropping into the area overnight and early Monday. The front will settle to our south through midweek as weak high pressure builds back into the region. Another cold front will approach the from the north late in the workweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.

Mid to high level clouds remain place over our region but the low level cloud cover is steadily eroding. As clouds become more high level in nature, temps will steady rise. I have adjusted temps down slightly to account for the high clouds.

.Previous Discussion High pressure is situated off the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning as an area of low pressure tracks across southern Canada. Extending from said low is a frontal boundary across the Great Lakes and reaching westward into the central U.S. An associated warm front is lifting to our north early this morning, heading for New England today. Plentiful mid to high clouds are streaming south and east over our area this morning from ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the Ohio Valley.

The front will continue its march south and east today as a decent southerly flow over our region will pump in a hot and moist airmass. Despite the cloud debris this morning, we should still manage to rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s for most, with 70s holding on over the higher elevations of the Alleghenies. Surface dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s coupled with the heat will promote modest instability as the front lingers to our northwest through this evening. This setup will allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to spark this afternoon over the mountains, tracking eastward toward the metros. Hi-res guidance has been reserved in coverage and strength of thunderstorm activity, likely owing to the weak forcing ahead of the front and aloft. That being said, within the broad northwest flow and the warm/moist airmass in place over the CWA, a few strong to severe storms remains possible. The primary threat would be damaging wind gusts with the strongest activity.

Showers and storms will wane this evening with the loss of daytime heating, with the front to our northwest slowly encroaching on our northern zones during the overnight hours. Can't rule a few showers tonight with the front nearby but most areas will remain dry with lows in the 60s to middle 70s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. The front will continue its migration southward Monday, with the focus of afternoon showers and thunderstorms relegated south of I-66 and across central Virginia. Depending on how progressive the front is or is not, will determine where those high rain chances exist. For now, the forecast paints central Virginia and the I-64 corridor southward with those higher POPs. A few strong to severe storms will be possible near and south of the front where the more moist and unstable airmass resides. North of the front, a drier northwest flow and lower dewpoints will really hamper rain and thunder chances. Diminishing rain chances Monday evening and overnight as the front pushes to the south and a more stable airmass wins out. Near normal temperatures expected Monday, with a touch cooler than normal Monday night behind the front.

Weak surface high pressure builds back toward the region Tuesday through Tuesday night as the front stalls out across the Carolinas. Not a huge airmass change behind the front, dewpoints a touch lower, so we should be able to warm decently Tuesday afternoon. Many areas will rise into the low to middle 90s, 80s in the mountains. As we remain within the broad upper trough and energy tracking aloft, as well as sufficient surface heating, can't rule out a few showers or storms over our extreme southern zones in central Virginia. Lows Tuesday night back off into the 60s to low 70s under partly cloudy skies and dry conditions.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Little to no change is expected in the synoptic pattern with a sprawling upper ridge staying in charge across the middle of the country. This omega block configuration will maintain longwave troughs to either side. Global ensemble solutions maintain lower heights across far north-central Canada down into New England. By next weekend, this negative height anomaly becomes more compact and elongated into the northeastern U.S. while the ridge across the nation's mid-section flattens out. The net result of this pattern shift will drive a more defined cold front across the Eastern Seaboard by Friday with high pressure building in for next weekend.

Persistent cyclonic flow will prevail through the period with a series of impulses sliding through within the northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, a residual stationary boundary sits to the south over the Carolinas which maintains less humidity over the Mid- Atlantic region. Wednesday is looking dry at this point, although a few isolated showers are not out of the question along and east of I- 95. Convective chances do increase by Thursday with better dynamics in place. The 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC all show more substantial vorticity centers racing through the region the first half of Thursday. Some timing issues exist with regard to whether these features will overlap the diurnal peak in buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast throughout Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west. This boundary is forecast to clear the area by early Friday with high pressure building in the wake. A return of drier weather ensues for Saturday with a noticeable drop in humidity as well.

High temperatures are likely to reach the low 90s on Wednesday and Thursday. Dew points do come up a bit ahead of the cold front so expect an uptick in humidity levels for Thursday. As usual, the cool spot will be across the Alleghenies with daily highs in the 70s. Temperatures cool off behind the cold front on Friday into next weekend with increasing sunshine accompanying the ridge of high pressure.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/.

Some lower ceilings at both CHO and MTN have started to erode this morning and VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the day.

.Previous Discussion.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as a cold front approaches to our northwest. Widespread coverage is not expected, but any encounter with a strong storm would yield a brief period of sub VFR conditions, as well as gusty winds. Have inserted VCTS in the TAFs to account for this, but confidence in a terminal impact is low. Southerly winds at around 10 knots will turn more west southwest by days end.

The front will slide southward into the area Monday, with additional shower and thunderstorms chances during the afternoon and early evening hours. Highest chances of impact will be at CHO where the more unstable airmass is expected to reside south of the front. Further north, an episode of sub VFR conditions is plausible at IAD/DCA, but chances are on the low side. The front pushes south of our area Monday night as weak high pressure builds back toward the region Tuesday through Tuesday night. Winds will remain light at less than 10 knots during this time, favor a west northwest trajectory.

VFR conditions are anticipated for middle to latter portions of the work week. Wind directions will shift at times, but should predominantly come out of the west to southwesterly direction. Increasing shower and thunderstorms chances on Thursday may lead to flight restrictions.

MARINE. SCA gusts expected across much of our waterways today as moderate southerly breezes persist. A cold front will approach to our northwest this afternoon and evening, as isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop. The stronger activity could bring a gusty wind threat and the need for Special Marine Warnings during this time. SCA gusts likely linger over our southern Bay waters tonight, thus an SCA remains in effect.

The front slides southward through the waters Monday, with a chance for additional showers and gusty thunderstorms across our southern Bay and tidal Potomac waters. Winds will turn out of the west northwest as the front pushes to the south. The front will settle south of our area Monday night through Tuesday night as weak high pressure builds back toward the region. As a result, a weak gradient will win out and sub SCA conditions are expected in a west northwest flow.

Winds over the marine waters stay below Small Craft Advisory levels on both Wednesday and Thursday. Given a chance for convection each day, particularly on Thursday, Marine Weather Statements and/or Special Marine Warnings may be required for locally stronger storms.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Southerly flow will continue through the weekend which raises tidal anomalies across the waters. Such winds strengthen through the morning leading to many locations nearing or reaching the Minor Stage during high tide. Given the close proximity to the full moon, the astronomical tides will run higher than usual. Many of the numerical pieces of guidance depict Minor being reached across Annapolis, Baltimore, and Havre de Grace in the mid to upper Chesapeake Bay.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for DCZ001. MD . Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ508. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ011. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>532-539-540. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ542. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ533-534-537- 541-543.

SYNOPSIS . BKF NEAR TERM . BKF/JMG SHORT TERM . BKF LONG TERM . BRO AVIATION . BKF/BRO/JMG MARINE . BKF/BRO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC	2 mi	47 min	SSW 7 G 11	78°F	83°F		1013.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD	20 mi	47 min	W 4.1	76°F			1014 hPa	69°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD	32 mi	47 min	S 5.1 G 8.9	82°F	82°F		1013.5 hPa
44063 - Annapolis	33 mi	35 min	SSW 9.7 G 12	75°F	79°F	1 ft	1014.6 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD	33 mi	17 min	S 13 G 14	76°F	79°F		1014.8 hPa (-0.8)	70°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD	37 mi	47 min	SW 4.1 G 6	80°F	82°F		1012.9 hPa
CPVM2	37 mi	47 min		76°F				70°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD	37 mi	47 min	SW 5.1 G 8.9	78°F			1013.2 hPa
FSNM2	37 mi	47 min	SSW 4.1 G 6	78°F			1013.3 hPa
NCDV2	38 mi	47 min	SW 6 G 13	79°F	81°F		1013.9 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD	40 mi	35 min	SSW 14 G 16	76°F	81°F	1 ft	1015.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD	48 mi	47 min	S 12 G 15	76°F			1014.6 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD	49 mi	47 min	SSW 13 G 16	77°F	80°F		1013.9 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

11 AM

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Last 24hr

S6

S8 G12

S7

S9

S7 G10

S7 G11

SE8 G15

SE8 G13

SE6

SE4 G8

SE5 G8

SE8 G12

S9

S7 G10

S9 G14

S11 G15

S9

S10 G15

S11 G14

S6 G9

S6 G9

SW5 G9

S7

S9 G12

1 day ago

NW1 G6

NE2 G5

W1 G5

NW4 G8

NW6 G10

W6

SW4

NW5

N2 G11

S6

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SW1

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S1

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SW1

S4

SW2

E1

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SE2

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2 days ago

NW8 G13

NW6 G13

NW6 G9

NW3 G11

N7 G12

NW4 G9

N3 G9

NW5 G10

N4 G7

N5 G10

NE1 G4

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W2

S1

NW1

W3

W1

NW3

W4

W2

N3 G7

N3

NE2 G6

N1

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA	2 mi	25 min	SSW 10	10.00 mi	Overcast	81°F	70°F	69%	1013.9 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD	10 mi	21 min	SW 8	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	80°F	67°F	66%	1014 hPa
College Park Airport, MD	11 mi	42 min	S 6	10.00 mi	Fair	79°F	67°F	68%	1013.5 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA	12 mi	21 min	SSE 7	10.00 mi	Fair	80°F	70°F	72%	1014.1 hPa
Gaithersburg - Montgomery County Airport, MD	21 mi	21 min	Var 5	10.00 mi	Fair	82°F	71°F	69%	1015.2 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD	22 mi	22 min	SSW 3	10.00 mi	Fair	79°F	70°F	74%	1014.2 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA	22 mi	25 min	S 7	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	80°F	70°F	71%	1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDCA

Wind History from DCA (wind in knots)

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S8

S8

S8

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SE12 G20

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S12

S8

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S12 G20

S12

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SW5

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1 day ago

Calm

Calm

Calm

N6

Calm

N8

N6

N9

SE7

SE6

S4

SE4

SW3

SW5

SW4

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S3

Calm

SW3

Calm

Calm

S5

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2 days ago

N8 G16

6

NW9

N12 G17

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NW8

NE4

N7

N7

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Calm

SW3

Calm

Calm

Calm

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N3

N6

NW7

NW6

NE4

NE6

NE9

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Tide / Current Tables for Washington, D.C.

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Tide / Current Tables for Fort Washington, Maryland

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Weather Map

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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