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Marine Weather and Tides Greenbriar, VA Version 3.4

NOTICE 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. 6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

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Sunrise 7:18AM

Sunset 4:49PM

Friday December 13, 2019 2:19 AM EST (07:19 UTC)

Moonrise 6:19PM

Moonset 8:36AM

Illumination 98%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greenbriar, VA

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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington

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FXUS61 KLWX 130235 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 935 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will slide offshore tonight. Low pressure will start developing along the Gulf Coast tonight and then head northward up the East Coast Friday and Saturday. High pressure will return briefly on Sunday before another system potentially affects the region Monday and Monday night. Cold high pressure will then follow for the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/.

Skies were briefly mostly clear this evening, which when coupled with light or calm winds has allowed temperatures to drop back to near or below freezing across most of the area. High clouds are now streaming in aloft well ahead of the main disturbance at mid-upper levels, and will continue to thicken through the night. With these high cloud moving in, the drop in temperatures should slow, but expect that temps will still drop a degree or two further through the remainder of the night. This sub- freezing air at the surface will set the stage for light freezing rain or freezing drizzle early tomorrow morning across portions of the forecast area.

The current water vapor imagery shows a shortwave disturbance located over Arkansas embedded within a much larger longwave trough. This shortwave will move rapidly northeastward toward our area tonight into early tomorrow. A broad zone of warm advection will ensue just above the surface in advance of this feature. Isentropic lift associated with the warm advection will lead to the development of light precipitation around daybreak tomorrow across southwestern portions of the forecast area. This should spread north and east through the morning. Although all of the precip looks to be light, the highest amounts of precipitation should be across western portions of the forecast area, where they'll be located closer to the shortwave disturbance. As the shortwave departs off to our northeast, we may experience a brief lull in the precip associated with subsidence in its wake from early afternoon until around dark. As other shortwave disturbances descend down the back side of the longwave trough, the longwave trough will dig into the lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow evening, inducing the formation of surface low pressure downstream in TN/KY. As this low tracks northeastward into WV and ascent in advance of the main trough overspreads our area tomorrow evening, precipitation is expected to blossom across the area once again. This time around, the precipitation is expected to be steadier, with moderate rain possible through much of the night.

In terms of precipitation type, freezing rain will be possible early tomorrow morning, primarily to the west of the Blue Ridge, where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect. Temperatures should gradually warm through the day, with most locations to the west of the Blue Ridge transitioning to plain rain before noon. In the most sheltered mountain valleys, freezing rain may hang on through the afternoon and possibly into the early evening hours. However, precipitation is expected to be plain rain for all by the time the second round of precipitation works in late tomorrow evening. To the east of the Blue Ridge, the expectation is that precipitation should fall in the form of plain rain throughout the entire event. However, there is a non- zero (but very low chance) that a brief period of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain could occur on the front edge of the precip very late tonight or early tomorrow morning. But currently, that isn't expected. We will continue to monitor the situation and make adjustments to the Winter Weather Advisory if needed.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/.

Low pressure will slide to the northeast on Saturday, leaving showers behind. Cold advection behind the system will begin to bring upslope showers to the Allegheny Front. These will changeover to snow quickly into the late afternoon/early evening as colder air pushes in. Only light accumulations are expected, with no winter weather advisories for snow currently anticipated. Further east, Saturday afternoon and evening will be slowly drying out, with relatively mild temps near 50 in the afternoon dropping into the 30s at night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. High pressure will briefly build over our region on Sunday behind a exiting coastal low system to the northeast. A westerly flow will form that may lead to some upslope snow showers Sunday morning along the western slopes of the Allegheny Mountain range. Temperatures will be near average during the day in the low to mid 40w with overnight lows in the 30s Sunday night.

A warm front is forecast to lift up through our area early on Monday. A weak high pressure looks to create a cold air damming situation on the eastern side of the Appalachians. Models starting to agree that a near surface layer of near to below freezing temperatures will be in place for a period Sunday overnight through Monday afternoon. As the precipitation shield associated with the warm front moves through our region, wintry precipitation will be possible on Monday. Models have consistent shown a above freezing layer at the mid-levels which would be an ideal setup for freezing rain but it remains uncertain at this time on how widespread wintry precipitation will become. Monday continues to be a concerning setup especially with decent agreement on some sort of cold damming situation. As the surface cold front lifts through our area, winds will become more southerly leading to a warm up late Monday and into early Tuesday. This suggest a changeover to all rain. The timing of this warm air moving into our region will need to continue to monitor to determine how much wintry precipitation will be possible.

Showers could linger into early Tuesday as the frontal system lifts out of our region. Most precipitation is forecast to be fully out of our area by Tuesday afternoon. High pressure will then build back into our region Tuesday afternoon through Thursday next week.

AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR conditions are expected through this evening and the early part of the overnight hours, with light winds generally out of the northeast. Lowering CIGs and RA/FZRA will become a concern early Friday morning. FZRA is likely at CHO by 11z or so and at MRB by around 14z. Much less (but still some) risk IAD. Not particularly concerned at DCA/BWI/MTN for FZRA given later arrival of precip and warming easterly flow. Low CIGs and VSBY likely Friday night with rain. Improving to MVFR/VFR on Saturday as low lifts north and rain ends, though scattered showers may linger.

Weak high pressure over our region will lead to mainly VFR conditions but with a westerly flow some midlevel cloud decks will be possible on Sunday.

A warm front will lift up through all terminals. Precipitation will be likely with some of it potentially falling as wintry precip likely in the form of freezing rain. SubVFR conditions will be possible.

MARINE. High pressure will slide east as low pressure moves up from the south tonight through Friday night, but not yet particularly concerned about SCA issues given stable air mass in place. SCA could become an issue as low pressure pulls away Saturday into Sunday.

A coastal low will exit our region on Sunday but some lingering strong winds could lead to the need for Small Craft Advisories on Sunday. Another system will move through our region on Monday which could lead to the need for further Small Craft Advisories.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM EST Friday for MDZ003-004. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for MDZ501-502. VA . Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 3 PM EST Friday for VAZ025-026-036>038-503-504-508. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM EST Friday for VAZ505. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM EST Friday for VAZ027>031-039-040-501-507. WV . Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 3 PM EST Friday for WVZ505-506. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM EST Friday for WVZ051>053. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM EST Friday for WVZ050-055-501-502. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for WVZ503-504. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . RCM NEAR TERM . KJP SHORT TERM . RCM/CJL LONG TERM . JMG AVIATION . CJL/JMG MARINE . CJL/JMG

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC	20 mi	49 min	Calm G 1	35°F	44°F		1033.2 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD	37 mi	109 min	Calm	28°F			1033 hPa	26°F
NCDV2	43 mi	55 min	NW 1 G 1.9	31°F	46°F		1031.9 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD	49 mi	49 min		35°F			1032 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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N4

N6 G12

N8 G12

N3 G8

NE2 G5

NE2 G5

NE1 G4

E3 G7

S3 G6

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W1 G4

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NW10 G18

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S7 G11

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NW7 G10

NW3

NW6 G13

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NW10 G15

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NW8 G12

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N4 G13

NW5 G8

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA	6 mi	27 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	33°F	23°F	66%	1032.7 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA	13 mi	23 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	32°F	25°F	75%	1033.5 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA	15 mi	83 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	30°F	23°F	76%	1033.5 hPa
Leesburg / Godfrey, VA	17 mi	44 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	32°F	24°F	75%	1033.2 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA	19 mi	27 min	N 0	9.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	35°F	25°F	67%	1033 hPa
Gaithersburg - Montgomery County Airport, MD	23 mi	23 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	30°F	24°F	79%	1034.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIAD

Wind History from IAD (wind in knots)

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S15 G22

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Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.

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Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (2,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA

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