Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cordova, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:44PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 5:29 PM EST (22:29 UTC) Moonrise 3:52PMMoonset 5:22AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 338 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight est tonight...
Rest of this afternoon..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers.
Wed..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain or snow showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain through the day, then rain through the night.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 338 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will drag its trailing cold front across the region through Wednesday. High pressure will follow Wednesday night through Thursday. Another low pressure system developing over the northern gulf of mexico will move northeastward toward the region Friday into Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday night and again Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cordova, MD
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location: 38.9, -76.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 102050 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 350 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS.

A cold front will push through the area this afternoon/evening as low pressure passes to our northeast. Strong high pressure will build in from the west Wednesday night into Thursday and then move offshore Thursday night. A low pressure system will move through the southeastern states and into the Mid-Atlantic late Friday into Saturday. The low will quickly move off to the northeast allowing high pressure to briefly build into the region for the start of the new week, before another storm system approaches from the south late Monday into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MIDNIGHT/.

An upper level jet streak is now positioned to our north with rain showers forecast to continue developing into the overnight. At the surface, a cold front is making its way toward eastern PA and will cross the forecast area through the evening hours and will be offshore by midnight. There will be an enhancement in the precipitation as the front itself moves through this evening so I've kept likely to categorical PoPs in the forecast.

Temperatures have warmed well into the 50s and low 60s across the area thanks to warm air advection in the wake of a warm front now located well to our north. As the front passes, winds will shift westerly and temps/dewpoints will being to drop quickly into the 40s and 30s.

SHORT TERM /12 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/.

In the wake of the cold frontal passage, another quick shot of light to moderate precipitation is forecast to develop. This is in response to a shortwave trough ejecting northeastward from the Tennessee Valley along with an area of frontogenesis developing behind the exiting cold front. Hi-res guidance develops a modest band of precip across the forecast area a few hours after midnight, then the band will persist and move offshore by around 10 AM. As cold air advection continues overnight, rain will mix with and change to all snow from northwest to southeast from midnight to about daybreak area wide. Some sleet is also possible across Delmarva and southern NJ where the warm nose persists a bit longer.

The heaviest snowfall will be before daybreak on Tuesday north/west of I-95. This is the area where confidence is highest on accumulating snowfall since temperatures will be colder. However, less QPF is forecast in these areas so many areas may end up with less than an inch. For the I-95 corridor, the heaviest snowfall is forecast to fall from about 4-7AM. Farther south across southern and coastal NJ as well as Delmarva, snowfall will end by around 10-11 AM.

With antecedent conditions being quite warm, we do expect there to be very poor efficiency in accumulating any snow, especially on roads. Most of the snow will only stick to grassy and elevated surfaces where it can fall quickly enough and temps can cool to near freezing. Therefore, we aren't expecting any significant travel issues, however there may be some slushy spots on roads causing them to become slippery.

As far as total snow accumulations, we're expecting a coating around an inch or so for most areas, with less than an inch across Delmarva and extreme southern NJ. Farther north and east, isolated areas up to 2" are possible. This is mainly confined to areas that will be colder at the onset of snow and areas that will receive snow for longer as the band of precip is moving offshore. The highest uncertainty for snow amounts is across Monmouth and Ocean Counties where banding and moderate snow may persist longer potentially leading to higher totals.

Morning low temperatures will likely occur while snow is falling and will be within a degree or two of the freezing mark. Skies will clear quickly in the wake of the departing band of precip as much drier air advects in from the west. Temperatures will then rise into the upper 30s to near 40 degrees by the afternoon hours with westerly winds around 10 mph, so whatever snow does fall will likely be all melted by the end of the day.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/.

Summary: Cold and dry Thursday, then cloudy and a bit warmer with a chance of showers Friday, with heavier rainfall expected Friday night into Saturday morning. Largely dry weather Sunday into Monday before another storm system approaches from the south late Monday into Tuesday.

Dailies:

Thursday: Strong (1040 mb) High Pressure builds in from the west with cold and dry conditions prevailing. Although it will be mostly sunny highs will only reach the 20s in the Poconos and generally mid 30s elsewhere. Guidance has become more bullish on bringing in some lower cloud cover Thursday night so nudged mins a couple degrees to account for this possibility.

Friday: The high will move into the Gulf of Maine and towards the Canadian Maritimes on Friday, with east to southeast flow developing behind the it. Temperatures warm back up to near and slightly above normal levels on (e.g. from the upper 30s in the Poconos to lower 50s in Delmarva).

Some showers will be possible during the daytime hours on Friday as lead shortwave energy & an UL jet streak combine with isentropic upglide. Generally expect these to remain relatively light and be mostly rain (although a period of mix will be possible in the far north).

Friday night/Saturday . A period of moderate rainfall is expected as a strengthening coastal low moves in from the south. Lift provided by the system's warm (potentially occluded) front, and the exit region of the curved UL jet will combine with PWATS around 1.25 inches to create a potential for some locally heavy rainfall Friday night/Saturday morning. Right now most guidance is hinting at totals in the 1-1.5 inch range although some ensemble members show the potential for even higher amounts. If the higher end scenarios were to verify there could be some hydro concerns, but this will become more clear in the coming days.

Some additional precipitation (still mostly rain) is possible Saturday afternoon/night as northern branch energy interacts with the system's cold front.

Sunday/Monday . Some light precipitation will be possible Sunday morning as a last piece of shortwave energy pivots through although there isn't much moisture left to work with. Otherwise high pressure will build in more or less overhead by Monday. Temperatures will generally be in the mid 40s to lower 50s on Sunday, before cooling off 5-10 degrees behind the dry cold front on Monday.

Monday night/Tuesday . The next storm system (of southern stream origin) will likely impact the area in this time frame although timing discrepancies exist (the Canadian is the fastest, the GFS intermediate, and the EC the slowest). There are also significant differences in the low's track and thermodynamic profiles. Since it is so far out went with a pure rain/snow forecast this package, but depending upon the low's track and how entrenched the antecedent cold air is, there is certainly some potential for mixed precipitation (the Canadian in particular is keying in on this). This system will certainly bear watching over the next few days.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Late afternoon . A cold front will be approaching from the W late this afternoon. Ahead of the front lower CIGS and some VSBY restrictions with -SHRA and BR. SW winds around 10 to 15 knots early will become Wrly after the front passes. Showers will diminish after fropa also.

Tonight . Some improving conditions early but then a trend towards decreasing CIGS and VSBYS around and after midnight with more -RA early then -SN/-RA after 08Z/09Z. The amounts of -SN and how it will affect VSBYS is probably the main fcst challenge with the 18Z TAFS. For now, mostly MVFR conditions are expected, but included some IFR late for KILG/KMIV/KACY with a band of snow shown developing on some fcst models. Confid in this period is moderate (at best) lower SE and higher NW. WInds mostly NW at 10 to 15 knots overnight.

Wednesday . Poor conditions in the morning with MVFR or possibly IFR conditions early (12Z) before improving back to VFR by around 15Z/16Z. The improving conditions will arrive across the wrn sites (KRDG/KABE) earlier and KACY/KMIV a bit later. Drier air arriving will cause CIGS to diminish with good VSBYS after any early precip ends. Winds will become gusty from the W or NW with G20 knots possible by afternoon. Outlook .

Wed night thru Thu night . VFR expected. Winds mostly under 10 knots. Fri . VFR early then lower CIGS and VSBYS with rain and fog late. Fri night thru Sat night . Lower CIGS/VSBYS with rain and fog. Gusty winds expected. Sunday . VFR expected. Gusty winds.

MARINE. The Small Craft Advisory was extended through the end of the Short Term period (and into the Long Term period). Waves of 4-5 feet are possible through much of the day Wednesday despite winds forecast to be below criteria during the day. There will be a surge of westerly winds overnight tonight with gusts of 20-25 kts. Winds will diminish toward daybreak then another stronger surge of wind is forecast to develop Wednesday evening with westerly winds gusting 25-30 kts.

Outlook .

Wednesday night/Thursday . W/NW wind gusts over 25 kts are expected to persist into Wednesday night before dropping below criteria by Thursday morning. Seas initially 3-4 ft are expected to decrease to 2-3 ft by late Thursday.

Friday . Increasing easterly winds and building seas expected, especially later in the day, but expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions through the daytime hours. East winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots and seas around 2 to 4 feet.

Friday night through Saturday . East winds will continue to increase Friday evening and gusts are expected to approach 25 knots by Saturday morning while seas build to over 5 ft by Saturday morning. Winds will then turn to south and then west on Saturday. An SCA will likely be needed in this period.

Saturday night through Sunday . Westerly wind gusts likely increase above 25 kts in this period and may even approach gale force on Sunday. Seas will be initially 5-7 ft and potentially decrease to around 5 ft by the end of the period.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ450>455.

Synopsis . Carr Near Term . Staarmann Short Term . Staarmann Long Term . Carr Aviation . O'Hara Marine . Carr/Staarmann


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 17 mi60 min 55°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 18 mi90 min W 12 G 15 56°F 46°F1013.9 hPa (+2.0)56°F
44063 - Annapolis 19 mi48 min NNW 9.7 G 9.7 53°F 46°F1014 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 21 mi60 min 56°F 1012.8 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 23 mi60 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 55°F 46°F1013.1 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 23 mi60 min WNW 8 G 11 54°F 46°F1013.2 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 29 mi54 min NNE 7.8 G 9.7 54°F 1014.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 32 mi60 min W 9.9 G 12 56°F 1013.2 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 33 mi120 min NW 2.9 59°F 1012 hPa58°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 36 mi60 min NNW 5.1 G 8 57°F 45°F1012.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 44 mi60 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 58°F 48°F1012.7 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 46 mi60 min WNW 7 G 11 55°F 43°F1012.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi66 min WSW 8 G 8.9 52°F 48°F1013.4 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 47 mi60 min WNW 14 G 17 55°F 46°F1013 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 49 mi60 min WNW 4.1 G 6 55°F 44°F1013.6 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD7 mi40 minWNW 6 G 177.00 miLow Drifting57°F55°F94%1014.9 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD13 mi35 minNW 710.00 miOvercast54°F51°F94%1013.9 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD21 mi36 minWNW 510.00 miOvercast55°F48°F77%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmE4CalmCalm--------------SW3W3W3CalmS4S6SW4S6S5SE6S6S5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--------------CalmCalmCalmE3E5SE6SE10SE6S6S6S5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Wye Landing, Wye East River, Maryland
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Wye Landing
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:34 AM EST     0.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:22 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:06 AM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:33 PM EST     1.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:51 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:56 PM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.80.90.90.80.60.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.20.10.511.41.61.61.41.210.70.40.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:39 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:59 AM EST     0.43 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:23 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:25 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:26 AM EST     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:06 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:53 PM EST     1.14 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:24 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:43 PM EST     -1.01 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.20.10.30.40.30.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-00.40.81.11.110.70.2-0.3-0.7-1-1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.