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Marine Weather and Tides Stevensville, MD Version 3.4

NOTICE 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. 6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

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Sunrise 6:27AM

Sunset 7:49PM

Sunday August 25, 2019 11:49 AM EDT (15:49 UTC)

Moonrise 12:02AM

Moonset 3:02PM

Illumination 24%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stevensville, MD

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Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA

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Fxus61 kphi 251342 afdphi area forecast discussion national weather service mount holly nj 942 am edt Sun aug 25 2019 Synopsis High pressure located across new england and southeast canada will weaken through Tuesday. Low pressure will move into ontario and cause a cold front to cross our area during the middle of the upcoming week. More high pressure will arrive for Thursday and Friday. Another front may affect the weather next weekend. Near term until 6 pm this evening 930 am update: cloud cover is starting to fill in as the onshore flow increases. Therefore, I increased cloud cover from the delaware valley and further east through the morning. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast. Previous discussion... models have really struggled with the evolution of a midlevel vortex atop the northeast this weekend. The mid upper low is quite a bit farther south than yesterday's simulations were suggesting, and it has been slower to move eastward as well. This has had subtle but important effects on surface flow and may have noticeable impacts on the weather today, especially near the coast. For starters, winds have been slow to develop a more easterly component. Most surface observations early this morning are between 340 and 30 degrees, which is not very conducive for a surge inland of lower clouds and drizzle light showers. Radar indicates some sprinkles or light showers off the new jersey coast early this morning, but these have shown little progress inland. As the upper low presumably shifts eastward today, the surface high to our north northeast should as well. As this occurs, winds will veer to a more east-northeast direction, which should begin to allow lower clouds and possibly some light precipitation to move inland. Nevertheless, I am suspicious that the models are overdoing the precipitation in general, so I have lowered pops from the previous forecast. Regarding cloud cover, the models have also struggled with the scattered-broken midlevel clouds across the area early this morning, so have bumped sky cover from the previous forecast accordingly. These have had some effect on radiational cooling (at least in an hour-by-hour sense), but have not had too much impact on the overall low temperatures forecast early this morning, except in the far northwest CWA (where cloud cover has noticeably restricted a sharper temperature drop). With these trends in mind, felt that a continuity forecast for today was appropriate. Should see some gradient from east to west this afternoon, especially with the onshore flow, but the degree to which this occurs is uncertain given the above discussion. Statistical consensus did a reasonable job yesterday but may perform a little worse today owing to the projected increased effects of sky cover and onshore flow. Nevertheless, confidence is just not there to make too many deviations from these values owing to the model errors observed so far. All of the above said, it should be a sufficiently nice day to get outside and enjoy the cooler conditions! Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday As discussed yesterday, models are still showing a shift southward in the strongest low-level moisture fetch from the ocean during the overnight hours. This should occur in conjunction with ageostrophic southward acceleration of flow east of the higher terrain, inducing higher pressure farther to the south overnight. Have continued to depict this in the forecast, though my caveats regarding the overly aggressive model generation of precipitation remain. As such, lowered pops about 5-10 percent for the tonight period, with the highest pops on the atlantic coast with negligible pops northwest of a dover to sandy hook line. Additionally, there may be some improvement in sky condition during the evening hours (especially the farther north and west you go), with a resurgence of lower clouds past midnight. Effects on temperatures may be more pronounced than what has been seen early this morning, with the north west CWA probably verifying colder than model consensus and the south east CWA probably verifying warmer. Have made some adjustments to the low-temperature forecast with these effects in mind; however, the forecast is reasonably close to continuity. Long term Monday through Saturday The maritime airmass across the area, resulting from the onshore flow behind the retreating high, will continue early this week. This will produce some low clouds and some light precipitation near the coastal areas. Variable cloud cover will be found further inland across ERN pa and NRN nj. Temperatures both days will be a little below normal for late august. Temperatures will return to near normal Wednesday when a cold front approaches the area. A batch of showers and tstms will accompany the front with rainfall totals of 1 2 to 1 inch possible. We have mostly chc pops in the fcst for now, since the models haven't fully

decided if the FROPA will be during the day or overnight into thu morning. Some fine tuning will occur once the models come into better agreement. Late this week, high pressure from the W SW will build back across the area. A drier and slightly warmer airmass will return to the middle atlantic. Highs will become above normal with some upper 80s arriving to the area. Aviation 14z Sunday through Thursday The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas. Through tonight... MainlyVFR, with ceilings generally hovering around 4000-8000 feet. Temporary MVFR ceilings are possible from the delaware valley and points east through mid day. Winds becoming east- northeast 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt possible. Outlook... mon tue... MostlyVFR, but some low clouds and light precipitation possible near the shore. MVFR ifr possible there. Wed... MVFR possible with some showers tstms. Thu... MostlyVFR expected. Marine Advisory conditions are expected to persist through tonight on the waters, with seas already around 5 feet at buoy 44009, and wind gusts meeting criteria on the beaches. Expect a slow trend upward with both through tonight, with gusts approaching 30 kt at times and seas building to 5 to 7 feet on the atlantic waters. Models have been too slow in building the ocean wave heights to this point, so have forecast conditions slightly higher than their simulations depict. If trends continue, could see seas build to 8 feet late tonight. Outlook... sca conditions will continue into Monday and perhaps maybe extended into Monday night at some later time. Sub-sca expected after that. Clouds and a chance for light showers Mon tue. A chance of showers tstms Wed wed night. Mostly fair thu. Rip currents... northeasterly winds in the 15 to 30 mph range and seas between 4 and 7 feet will result in a high risk of rip currents for the new jersey shore on Sunday with a moderate risk of rip currents expected for the delaware beaches. This elevated rip current risk is expected to persist until at least Tuesday as a prolonged period of onshore flow and elevated seas looks likely. Tides coastal flooding A prolonged period of northeast to east flow will continue through at least Tuesday. This persistent onshore fetch, combined with increasing astronomical tides due to an approaching new moon on Thursday, will likely lead to increasing coastal water levels. Some spotty minor coastal flooding is possible with this afternoon's evening's high tide, but better chances for more widespread minor- advisory-level flooding appear to be with the afternoon evening tides on Monday and Tuesday. Equipment The NWS radar at dover, de (kdox), is out of service at this time. The time when it will return is presently unknown. Phi watches warnings advisories Pa... None. Nj... High rip current risk until 8 pm edt this evening for njz014- 024>026. De... None. Md... None. Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Monday for anz430-431- 450>455. Synopsis... O'hara near term... Cms johnson short term... Cms long term... O'hara aviation... Cms johnson o'hara marine... Cms o'hara tides coastal flooding... equipment...

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CPVM2	7 mi	49 min		71°F				61°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD	9 mi	49 min	NNE 16 G 19	70°F	79°F		1024 hPa (+0.5)	61°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD	11 mi	49 min		73°F			1022.9 hPa (+0.3)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD	20 mi	55 min	NNE 8 G 14	71°F	79°F		1023.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD	24 mi	49 min	ENE 12 G 14	71°F			1023.7 hPa (+0.4)
FSNM2	24 mi	55 min	NE 15 G 18				1023.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD	25 mi	139 min	N 2.9	69°F			1023 hPa	62°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD	27 mi	103 min	NE 18 G 19	71°F			1023.2 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD	27 mi	49 min	NNE 7 G 12
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD	28 mi	49 min	ENE 11 G 15
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD	37 mi	49 min	ENE 19 G 25	68°F			1023.1 hPa (+0.3)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC	39 mi	49 min	NE 4.1 G 8	74°F	82°F		1023.4 hPa (+0.0)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD	43 mi	49 min	ENE 17 G 21	70°F	81°F		1022 hPa (-0.0)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE	46 mi	139 min	N 7	68°F			1023 hPa	63°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD	48 mi	49 min	E 6 G 11

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD	4 mi	69 min	ENE 7 G 15	10.00 mi	Overcast	72°F	60°F	69%	1023.4 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD	11 mi	1.9 hrs	ENE 11 G 20	10.00 mi	Fair	75°F	60°F	60%	1023.1 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD	14 mi	62 min	NE 11 G 20	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	73°F	62°F	69%	1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KW29

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Kent Island Narrows, Maryland

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Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (11,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.