Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Highland Beach, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 7:13PM Thursday September 16, 2021 6:13 PM EDT (22:13 UTC) Moonrise 4:12PMMoonset 12:43AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 439 Pm Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
Rest of this afternoon..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered showers with a chance of tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers.
Sat..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 439 Pm Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain anchored offshore through the weekend. Low pressure developing offshore of the carolinas is expected to track northward offshore through the end of the week, then another area of high pressure will build in from the west. Small craft advisories may be needed for middle portions of the chesapeake bay and lower tidal potomac river on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Highland Beach, MD
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location: 38.93, -76.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 161950 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 350 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure offshore will slowly track off toward our north and east through this weekend. High pressure will build in from the north and west for the second half of this weekend into early next week. A cold front will approach the area from the west during the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Current obs/satellite/radar imagery show two areas of interest at the moment. A well-defined, albeit weak boundary extends from the Delmarva across southern MD and into southern VA. Numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed along this boundary. Another, more localized zone of convergence extends from the immediate DC Metro area northward through north central MD (through Montgomery, Howard and Carroll Counties). Here a zone of easterly winds along the I-95 corridor intersects northerly winds further to the west at IAD, JYO and FDK. A large area of agitated cumulus is evident on satellite within this convergence zone, and many showers and thunderstorms are currently in the process of developing. Flow in the low-mid levels is weak across the area, and the column is very moist though a deep layer (which should limit outflow driven propagation). Both of these factors should lead to slow moving storms. Current SPC mesoanalysis shows around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE to the east of the Blue Ridge. Precipitable water values are generally between 1.7 and 1.9 inches to the east of the Blue Ridge. These anomalously high precipitable water values coupled with high freezing levels (near 4 km) and ample instability will allow storms to produce heavy rainfall, with hourly rainfall rates approaching 2 inches possible. Since the storms aren't expected to move much, there are concerns about flash flooding across the DC/Baltimore metros and into north central MD (where flash flood guidance remains low as a result of rainfall during Ida). Heavy rainfall will also be possible across southern MD and into the Fredericksburg area, but flash flood guidance is much higher across these areas (in excess of 3 inches per hour). As a result, the recently issued Flash Flood Watch includes the DC/Baltimore metros and north- central MD, but does not include southern MD or the Fredericksburg area. Despite the presence of ample instability, the lack of shear and the moist profiles (limiting downdraft accelerations due to sub-cloud evaporation) will limit the potential for severe thunderstorms. With light southeasterly flow in place at low-levels, activity is expected to gradually drift off toward the north and west over the next several hours. Model guidance is in good agreement that activity will quickly wind down this evening with loss of daytime heating. As a result, the Flash Flood Watch only extends through 9 PM.

While a few lingering showers can't be ruled out overnight, much of the area should stay dry. Areas of fog may try to form overnight, especially to the west of the Blue Ridge, where some breaks in the cloud cover may form. Elsewhere, thick low cloud cover will persist though the overnight hours.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Low pressure will linger offshore tomorrow, with weak troughing in place aloft. Scattered showers will form in response to daytime heating tomorrow afternoon. While a stray storm can't be ruled out, both the strength and areal coverage of activity tomorrow looks much lower compared to today. No issues with severe weather or flash flooding are anticipated. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower 80s for most.

On Saturday the area of low pressure offshore will track further off toward the north and east, while a shortwave moves across northern NY and Quebec. In response, a weak boundary will be pushed southward into the northwestern portions of the forecast area. This may serve as a focus for the development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures on Saturday will be a touch warmer, with highs in the mid 80s for most.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A strong upper level ridge will build over our region from the west on Sunday and remain in place through early Tuesday. High pressure over eastern Canada is forecast to drop southward into our region through the same period at the surface. Dry and slightly above normal temperatures are likely Sunday through Tuesday with highs generally in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be mild in the 60s.

The upper level trough is forecast to start shifting eastward out of our region late Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west. A strong upper trough driving the frontal passage may bring showers and strong thunderstorms to our region late Tuesday and into Wednesday. The main limiting factor at this time will be the lack of CAPE ahead of the frontal passage. This will likely be a strong forcing and favorable shear environment but minimal CAPE situation. The confidence remains low on the timing of the frontal passage along with overall storm environment at this time. Depending on the frontal timing, temperatures may need to be adjusted up for both Tuesday and Wednesday to account for warm air advection. Long term guidance indicates a much cooler and drier air mass is likely behind the frontal passage.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Thunderstorms may lead to temporary restrictions at IAD, DCA, BWI, and MTN this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity should quickly wind down after dark. Low clouds will move in overnight, with IFR conditions expected in many locations. Fog may also form in spots, with MRB and CHO standing the greatest chance of seeing fog form. Ceilings and visibilities will both gradually improve through the morning hours tomorrow, becoming VFR tomorrow afternoon. Showers and a few thunderstorms may lead to brief restrictions again tomorrow afternoon, but coverage of storms looks much lower compared to today. Low clouds and fog may be possible again tomorrow night. A stray afternoon or evening thunderstorm may be possible at MRB on Saturday, but conditions look predominantly dry at the other terminals.

High pressure will settle southward over all terminals through Tuesday. As the high shifts further southward over our region, a weak easterly flow will form on Monday and remain in place through Tuesday. This may lead to onshore advection of moisture and an increased chance for subVFR conditions early next week.

MARINE. Northeasterly flow will continue over the waters over the next couple days. The winds should be sub-SCA level for the most part, but may briefly reach SCA levels over the wider waters of the middle Chesapeake for a time overnight tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening through Saturday, with the highest coverage of storms this afternoon.

High pressure will settle over our waters Sunday through early next week bringing subSCA conditions.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Elevated water levels continue from a southerly flow earlier, but a lighter northeast flow is expected today and this will allow for anomalies to fall.

The onshore flow may strengthen for a period Friday before turning more northerly during the weekend. Water levels may increase some for Friday into Friday night, and minor flooding is possible. However, confidence is low since the flow will likely remain north of east during this time.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001. MD . Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for MDZ004>006- 011-013-014-503>508. VA . Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for VAZ052>054- 505-506. WV . None. MARINE . Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535.

SYNOPSIS . KJP NEAR TERM . KJP SHORT TERM . KJP LONG TERM . JMG AVIATION . KJP/JMG MARINE . KJP/JMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . BJL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 2 mi73 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 76°F 78°F1020.4 hPa (-0.5)73°F
44063 - Annapolis 2 mi49 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 76°F 79°F1020.3 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 4 mi73 min E 2.9 G 2.9 78°F 81°F1019.1 hPa (-0.7)
CPVM2 6 mi73 min 76°F 69°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 17 mi103 min S 2.9 80°F 1019 hPa72°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 20 mi73 min E 8 G 9.9 79°F 1019.5 hPa (-0.8)
FSNM2 20 mi73 min ENE 11 G 13 79°F 1019.7 hPa (-0.7)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 22 mi73 min E 5.1 G 12 71°F 78°F1020.8 hPa (+0.4)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 24 mi73 min ESE 8.9 G 11 80°F 79°F1019 hPa (-0.7)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 26 mi49 min E 3.9 G 7.8 74°F 78°F1 ft1020.2 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 31 mi73 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 74°F 77°F1019 hPa (-0.3)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 32 mi73 min ESE 6 G 8 73°F 78°F1019.5 hPa (-0.5)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi73 min E 4.1 G 7 76°F 1019.7 hPa (-0.3)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi73 min E 7 G 8 77°F 79°F1019.3 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD4 mi19 minNNE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F69°F79%1020.2 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD20 mi18 minESE 35.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F72°F100%1021 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD21 mi19 minE 10 G 2110.00 miOvercast76°F69°F79%1020 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD22 mi23 minNE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F72°F94%1021.3 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD23 mi17 minE 310.00 miFair74°F69°F85%1020.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNAK

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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S11S8NW4CalmNE3CalmN4NW4N4N7N5NE55N7N5N4NE6NE7NE5SE11SE3N8
1 day agoS9S8S7S8S6S8S5S4S44S4CalmCalmSE34S4E4SE12SE12
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2 days agoCalmCalmNW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE6SE5SE5E8SE9S7S7S10

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Ridge, Maryland
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Bay Ridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:22 AM EDT     1.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:47 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:25 PM EDT     0.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:29 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.51.51.41.210.80.60.50.40.50.70.80.90.90.80.70.50.40.30.30.40.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Thu -- 01:27 AM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:20 AM EDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:29 PM EDT     0.45 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:49 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.8110.80.40-0.4-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.3-00.30.40.40.30-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.30.1

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