Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Annapolis Neck, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:45PM Sunday December 8, 2019 8:54 PM EST (01:54 UTC) Moonrise 2:49PMMoonset 3:21AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 835 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday evening through late Monday night...
Tonight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain and drizzle early this evening, then rain or drizzle likely after midnight.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain or drizzle likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain or snow likely.
Wed night..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day, then rain likely through the night.
ANZ500 835 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will develop over the central united states and lift into the great lakes through Monday. A warm front developing east of this area of low pressure over the carolinas is expected to lift northward across the mid-atlantic during this time. The aforementioned low will drag its trailing cold front through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Monday night through Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Annapolis Neck, MD
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location: 38.93, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 090132 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 832 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will develop over the central United States and lift into the Great Lakes through Monday. A warm front developing east of this area of low pressure over the Carolinas is expected to lift northward across the Mid-Atlantic during this time. The aforementioned low will drag its trailing cold front through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong Arctic high pressure will build from the Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night through Thursday night, then shift offshore of New England as low pressure develops over and approaches from the southeastern United States.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. Low deck clouds developing east of the Blue Ridge this evening and are expected to overspread the area overnight. Isentropic lift will increase tonight as well, with clouds lowering and the chance for rain or drizzle just about everywhere by daybreak.

The main focus for rain will likely be in two areas: 1) southeast of I-95 associated with enhanced low-level upglide as a weak SLP min/low develops along a northward advancing warm front, aided by proximity to the Atlantic, and 2) over eastern West Virginia closer to more appreciable height falls ahead of the approaching upper trough. Latest guidance, however, has trended drier between these two features. Have backed on precipitation slightly to the west of the theta-e ridge. Given magnitude of warm advection though, did not want to pull back too far toward daybreak as there is still a chance at measurable precipitation.

Temperatures tonight will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Saturday night due to the warmer air moving in on southerly flow and increased cloud cover. Lows are likely to be achieved this evening, with temperatures expected to hold steady or slowly rise after midnight.

Some earlier runs, led by the NAM, suggested patchy freezing rain possible in the mountains, but have pulled back on that outcome given drier precipitation trends . making a rather low probability event even more unlikely. By the time rain does arrive, believe there should be just enough warm advection to have temperatures above freezing.

Elsewhere, the period of steadiest rain is expected Monday morning through about mid afternoon, focused mainly along and northwest of the US-29 corridor closest to the parent trough over the Midwest. A relative min in QPF is likely over portions of the Shenandoah Valley due to moist SW flow in the low levels being intersected by upstream terrain.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A lull in the steadiest rain is expected for much of the Mid- Atlantic east of the Appalachians Monday night into first thing Tuesday morning. This is due to strongest low level forcing from the warm front lifting northward out of the area. But as the upper trough and surface cold front trailing low pressure moving across the Great Lakes approaches, showers should re-develop Tuesday into Tuesday night.

The surface front is expected to move east of the area Tuesday evening, but the RRQ of a strong (170+ kt) 250 hPa jet and PVA ahead of the trough lags behind the front, resulting in an anafrontal precipitation event. Precipitation will be fighting some dry advection in NW low level flow, but given the strength of forcing aloft and residual moisture in the column, there should still be enough ingredients to result in rain changing to snow before it ends late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

At the present time, the most likely area for accumulations appears to be in a band from east-central West Virginia northeastward through northwestern Virginia, and northern Maryland, with the highest accums most likely over the higher terrain, including the Blue Ridge mountains. The latest model guidance is a bit aggressive in terms of both anafrontal QPF amounts, and subsequent low level cold air/snowfall. Nudged previous forecast upward but not nearly as aggressive as the 12Z NAM, or even quite as high as the latest ECMWF, given lower certainty in this setup climatologically speaking, and model variability several days out. Of note, 9Z SREF show 4-6 C temp spread at 850 hPa at 12Z Wednesday over the I-95 corridor, which shows there's still a fair amount of uncertainty in just exactly when cold air gets here.

Precipitation should wind down as cold/dry air continues to rush into the region ahead of an Arctic high building in by Wednesday afternoon.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Canadian high pressure will build to the north Wednesday night into Thursday morning, resulting in much colder temperatures. Thursday will be much colder than normal as well, with highs only in the 30s. Dry conditions are expected throughout this period, as the aforementioned cold front should get far enough south and east to be of no concern.

By Friday, though, things get more active. A potent mid-upper cutoff low in the southern stream will swing across the southern US, phasing with northern stream shortwave diving down across the Plains. Attendant surface cyclogenesis will likely occur along the Gulf Coast and moving northward into the Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday.

Timing differences between the GFS and ECMWF for precip arrival exhibits where the forecast becomes more uncertain. The GFS brings precip into our region by midday Friday, while the ECMWF delays precip arrival by roughly 12 hours. The exact timing of precip arrival, as well as the magnitude of residual low level cold/exact low track will determine p-types at onset. What models do agree on is a surface ridge and a strong in-situ cold air damming signature Friday into Saturday. While temperatures gradually begin to warm aloft, temperatures at the surface still remain in the low to mid 20s. As high pressure continues to slowly move off the East Coast, it is unclear if southerly flow will be strong enough to scour out the cold air at the surface prior to precip arrival. While confidence is low in any outcome, the 12Z guidance does show the potential for a wintry mix at onset, (especially for areas west of the I-95 corridor) before temperatures warm throughout the entire column enough to continue the p-type as plain rain.

Rain should taper off by Sunday morning as low pressure moves away from the area. However, areas along/west of the Allegheny Front could see some lingering northwest flow rain/snow showers. Several ensemble members also try to develop a second area of low pressure, which could renew precip chances.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. VFR flight conditions continue this evening, but low deck clouds (CIGs 040-050) have already overspread the terminals east of the Blue Ridge. CIGs should continue to drop Monday morning, likely falling to IFR. Rain will increase during this time as well.

LLWS is highly likely given 40-50+ kt LLJ down as low as 2 kft AGL. SW Surface gusts to near 20 kts are possible at times. The forecast mention of this will be in the afternoon, especially the second half. Model soundings/time-heights suggest the LLJ will continue until about 02-03 UTC.

A relative lull in precip is expected Monday night, before showers increase again Tuesday, then changeover to snow before ending Wednesday morning. Most likely terminals to experience accumulation appear to be near MRB, with lower probabilities especially near/east of I-95.

VFR conditions expected on Thursday, with high pressure overhead. Sub-VFR conditions likely Friday into Saturday as low pressure approaches from the south, possibly resulting in mixed pcpn.

MARINE. South winds should stay below SCA criteria through tonight, though the gradient will be increasing. Strong winds just above the surface are expected Monday, but there will also be a steep low level inversion present on the north side of an approaching warm front. Even so, given the strength/height of the inversion, there should be enough to mix down gusts to around 20 kts or so, with highest confidence over the more open waters where SW to NE fetch is longest. Small Craft Advisory in effect Monday afternoon for the Mid Chesapeake Bay and lower Tidal Potomac.

The warm front will lift north, permitting some gusty winds to mix to the surface in spite of less than ideal mixing. Have extended/expanded the Small Craft Advisory to all Chesapeake Bay waters (and the lower tidal Potomac/tribs) Monday night. The SCA will likely need to be extended through Tuesday as the inversion weakens in SW flow. Gusty NW winds are expected behind a cold front approaching from the west Wednesday, with SCA likely during this time as well.

Winds should become light Thursday into Friday as high pressure build over the waters.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ530>532-538>540-542. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ533-534-537-541-543.

SYNOPSIS . DHOF NEAR TERM . HTS/DHOF SHORT TERM . DHOF LONG TERM . MSS/CJL AVIATION . HTS/DHOF/CJL MARINE . HTS/DHOF/CJL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44063 - Annapolis 4 mi36 min W 1.9 G 1.9 44°F 44°F1029.1 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 4 mi54 min 44°F 1027.7 hPa (-0.7)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 4 mi54 min ESE 8 G 8.9 45°F 45°F1028.7 hPa (-1.0)37°F
CPVM2 7 mi54 min 44°F 41°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 15 mi144 min Calm 40°F 1028 hPa36°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 20 mi54 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 44°F 1028.6 hPa (-0.4)
FSNM2 20 mi60 min SSE 2.9 G 5.1 44°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 24 mi60 min S 1 G 1.9 44°F 46°F1028.1 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 24 mi60 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 42°F 44°F1028.3 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 26 mi48 min SE 7.8 G 7.8 45°F 1028.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 28 mi54 min W 1 G 2.9 45°F 44°F1028.6 hPa (-0.0)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 34 mi60 min E 1 G 1.9 43°F 44°F1028.1 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi54 min ESE 2.9 G 2.9 46°F 47°F1027.8 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD4 mi60 minSE 610.00 miOvercast44°F39°F83%1028 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD10 mi59 minSE 510.00 miOvercast43°F33°F71%1028.1 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD18 mi81 minN 010.00 miOvercast41°F33°F76%1028.4 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD20 mi60 minN 010.00 miOvercast44°F34°F68%1028.3 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD21 mi2 hrsSE 510.00 miOvercast42°F33°F73%1028.4 hPa
College Park Airport, MD23 mi78 minS 310.00 miOvercast44°F31°F61%1027.8 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD24 mi64 minESE 410.00 miOvercast45°F33°F66%1029.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNAK

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E8E7SE9SE9SE9SE10SE8SE10S8SE9S9SE8SE5CalmSE5SE6
1 day agoNW5NW6NW4NW12NW13N13NW9NW8N6N6CalmCalmNW5N5N55NW5NW4NW6NW5N4N3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S9
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S9S53SW73SW34W5W4

Tide / Current Tables for Edgewater, South River, Maryland
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Edgewater
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:06 AM EST     0.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:21 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:25 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:12 PM EST     0.94 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:41 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.70.60.40.20-0.1-0.100.20.50.70.90.90.90.80.70.50.30.20.20.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:18 AM EST     0.45 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:21 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:49 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:03 AM EST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:57 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:33 PM EST     1.01 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:04 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:13 PM EST     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.40.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.300.40.8110.80.50-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.