Monday, August10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cape May, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:03PM Monday August 10, 2020 11:07 AM EDT (15:07 UTC) Moonrise 11:46PMMoonset 12:40PM Illumination 59% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 1002 Am Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A slight chance of tstms late.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Areas of fog late.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less. Areas of fog early in the morning.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1002 Am Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will translate offshore today and move further out to sea into Tuesday. A cold front will approach the area on Wednesday and then is expected to stall and eventually wash out in the vicinity of our area late this week. SEveral weak waves of low pressure will develop and move along this front through next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape May, NJ
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location: 38.95, -74.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 101258 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 858 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will translate offshore today and move further out to sea into Tuesday. A cold front will approach the area on Wednesday and then is expected to stall and eventually wash out in the vicinity of our area late this week. Several weak waves of low pressure will develop and move along this front through next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Morning update .

Patchy fog and low stratus from earlier in the morning has largely dissipated, with plenty of sunshine expected through the rest of the day. Previous forecast nicely covers the convective potential for later today. Very little forcing today, but also little inhibition. Continuing to expect only isolated to widely scattered shower/storm coverage, but any taller cores could produce locally gusty winds due to high DCAPE values. All in all, a pretty typical summer day Previous discussion follows.

Fairly benign weather expected over our area today as a warm and fairly muggy SW flow prevails on the western periphery of weak high pressure over the Atlantic. At the mid-lvls the synoptic pattern remains rather uninspiring as we remain on the flat northern fringe of the southern US ridge, with the main northern branch jet and stronger shortwave energy continuing to track to our north.

Expect that it will be a fairly typical warm & muggy midsummer day with high temperatures generally in the low 90s, and peak heat indices in the mid-upper 90s. Given the warm/moist airmass there be adequate instability (>=1500 J/kg of MLCAPE) to support thunderstorm development this afternoon. Although there is very little shear, dry air just above the surface combined with steep low-lvl lapse rates does support at least some gusty wind potential (likely not severe) with any storms that form. Given a lack of large-scale forcing, storm coverage should be fairly isolated. The most likely areas for convection appear to be in Delaware/NJ along the sea/bay breeze boundaries, with perhaps a secondary area of initiation near the higher terrain of the Poconos.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/. The only concern for the Monday night period will be the potential for another round of fog and stratus development as winds will be light, moisture remains pooled across our area, and appreciable mid-lvl cloud cover should not be present. Guidance hints at the greatest potential for fog/stratus development to be along the coastal plain, but wouldn't be surprised to see some development (although likely more patchy in nature) in the usual prone river valleys. Otherwise low temperatures will generally favor the low 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Synoptic Overview:

The general synoptic pattern over the CONUS will be fairly typical of midsummer through most of the extended period. A prominent H5 ridge will be centered over the SW US, while a second ridge will be centered just off the US SE Coast. North of these ridges a train of generally weak shortwave ridges and troughs will progress across the northern US and Canada. There is some hint of a more amplified trough approaching the Eastern US early next week but uncertainty naturally increases by this time.

At the surface a front associated with a Canadian low will approach our area towards the middle of the week. Per usual in the warm season this front will more or less stall in the vicinity of our area as the low moves well to our NE and High Pressure builds in its wake over eastern Canada ahead of a shortwave ridge. The overall pattern gets more uncertain late week as this boundary oscillates in our general vicinity and various waves of low pressure develop and move along the boundary.

Dailies:

Tuesday . Tuesday will be another warm and muggy day, with similar to if not even slightly higher heat index values as Monday. Still think we mix out enough to avoid Heat Advisory conditions, but it will need to be watched. A weak shortwave in zonal flow may generate some convection in the afternoon with activity likely focused over western portions of our area, where instability will be highest. Given the weak forcing coverage should remain isolated to scattered at best.

Wednesday . The cold front will approach the area from the north on Wednesday, with widely scattered thunderstorm development likely by the afternoon as moisture/instability pools over our area near and south of the boundary. Speaking of moisture, it will be another muggy day with heat indices once again topping out in the mid to upper 90s over much of the area.

Thursday-Saturday . The boundary will be stalled in our general vicinity (although the thermal/moisture gradient will begin to wash out) through this period. Although the exact placement of the boundary and the track of any associated frontal waves is uncertain, in general this period looks rather unsettled with storms possible every day with a max in precip chances in the diurnal convective window (e.g. the afternoon). The GFS/EC both depict PWATs over 2 inches for our area over more or less this entire time period, and that moisture combined with a nearly stationary focus for precipitation will at least warrant monitoring from a hydro perspective as we move forward. Although we will retain the higher dewpoints . abundant cloud cover/precipitation, and eventually a shift to offshore flow should keep high temperatures somewhat mild (generally low to mid 80s).

Sunday . Uncertainty increases by Sunday as the EC/CMC depict a fairly strong low (initially cold-core) developing on the boundary and moving offshore (taking most of the precipitation with it), while the GFS keeps us in the unsettled pattern for another day. Ultimately just went Chc PoPs and near-climo temps given the uncertainty

AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today . Morning fog and stratus has mainly dissipated, and what remains will scour out by 14z to 15z. Otherwise, VFR through the day with a southwest wind of 5 to 10 kt. A coastal sea breeze with a shift to S or SSE winds is possible this afternoon especially for ACY and MIV. There is a slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm with brief and localized sub-VFR conditions, including for PHL, however coverage of this activity is expected to be limited at best. Overall, high confidence in the forecast.

Tonight . VFR to start the overnight period however there will be the potential for restrictions in fog/stratus development Tuesday morning. Winds either light SW or light and variable. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Tuesday . Generally VFR conditions expected although showers/storms will be possible in the afternoon especially at KABE/KRDG. Southerly winds around 10 kts. High confidence on winds, low confidence on storm potential.

Wednesday . The chance of restrictions due to thunderstorms will increase Wednesday afternoon, particularly for KABE, KRDG, and the I-95 sites. Southerly winds 5-10kts. Moderate confidence.

Thursday through Friday . Periodic restrictions possible through this period with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Southerly-Southeasterly winds 10 kt or less. High confidence on storms, low confidence on timing and intensity.

MARINE. Winds and seas will be below Small Craft Advisory criteria Monday with seas 2 ft or less and southerly winds 10-15kts. Some fog may develop along the coast late tonight into Tuesday morning.

Outlook .

Tuesday through Friday . Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria through the workweek. Thunderstorms are possible, especially towards the end of the week, which could produce locally higher winds and waves.

Rip Currents .

There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents today and Tuesday. The wind is expected to favor the southeast and south around 10 MPH. Breaking waves are forecast to be less than 2 feet with a medium period swell from the southeast.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park Pennsylvania (Station WNG-704) remains off the air.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Carr Near Term . Carr/O'Brien Short Term . Carr Long Term . Carr Aviation . Carr/O'Brien Marine . Carr Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 4 mi49 min SW 6 G 7 81°F 75°F1018.4 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 12 mi49 min S 4.1 G 5.1
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 17 mi49 min N 4.1 G 4.1 82°F 74°F1018.6 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 35 mi137 min 1 ft
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 36 mi49 min 82°F 1018.8 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 38 mi49 min 74°F 71°F1019.2 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 44 mi49 min S 5.1 G 8 76°F 80°F1019.6 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 46 mi37 min SSW 4.1 84°F 1019 hPa76°F

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KWWD

Wind History from WWD (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape May Harbor, New Jersey
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Cape May Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:05 AM EDT     4.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:40 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:34 PM EDT     4.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:24 PM EDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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44.243.22.11.30.80.71.11.82.73.444.34.33.82.92.11.61.31.31.72.33

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:06 AM EDT     -1.01 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:00 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:15 PM EDT     1.05 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:45 PM EDT     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:39 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.80.4-0.1-0.6-0.9-1-0.9-0.6-00.50.8110.60.2-0.3-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.30.20.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.