Saturday, February27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Parole, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 5:58PM Saturday February 27, 2021 4:55 AM EST (09:55 UTC) Moonrise 6:28PMMoonset 7:14AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 430 Am Est Sat Feb 27 2021
Rest of the overnight..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain likely.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon, then becoming s. Waves 2 to 3 ft... Subsiding to 1 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain through the day.
ANZ500 430 Am Est Sat Feb 27 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure over southeastern virginia will move out to sea today. Another wave of low pressure will follow taking a bit further north track across the region Sunday. High pressure will build from the northeast toward the middle atlantic Monday into Tuesday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Sunday. Gale conditions are possible late Monday into early Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Parole, MD
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location: 38.97, -76.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 270901 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 401 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over southeastern Virginia will move out to sea today. Another wave of low pressure will follow taking a bit further north track across the region Sunday. High pressure will build from the Northeast toward the Middle Atlantic Monday into Tuesday. Unsettled weather may return during the second half of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. The early morning radar imagery shows the initial band of precipitation slowly moving across the I-95 corridor. On its heels is a more concentrated shield of rainfall crossing the Appalachians. Its depiction is somewhat deceiving based on the appearance of bright banding. While the warm nose aloft has moved through overnight, the low-level wedge of near freezing air has been stubborn to erode. Thus, some areas of freezing rain are possible with this next wave, particularly along I-81 in central Virginia and into the adjacent higher terrain to either side. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 6 AM for this reason. Farther north into east-central West Virginia and far western Maryland, such an advisory is also in place until 10 AM. Its duration will be evaluated based on surface temperatures. By daybreak, most locations should have warmed above freezing leading to a liquid precipitation event. This is likely to wind down by the late morning to early afternoon with perhaps a few lingering isolated showers. Some peaks of sunshine are possible with high temperatures reaching the mid/upper 50s in many spots, with 40s in the mountains.

The period of dry weather will be short-lived as a wetter system looms upstream. As the initial frontal wave exits into the Atlantic, the flow aloft turns more west-northwesterly as a series of perturbations track toward the central Appalachians. A surface boundary generally parallels the low/mid-level flow which stretches along the Ohio River into central West Virginia. The 06Z NAM precipitable water values start poking into the 1.25 to 1.50 inch range which is quite anomalous for this time of year. The NAEFS mean paints these numbers above the 95th percentile on Sunday morning and afternoon. This system is being fed by a fairly healthy southwesterly low-level jet in the 40 to 50 knot range. Ample forcing from this low-level advection combined with local orographics should lead to a steady period of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall across the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands. Storm totals are forecast to run in the 1.50 to 2.00 inch range with roughly half that for locations to the east. Within the current snow/ice pack, the NOHRSC analysis paints about 2 to 4 inches of snow-water equivalent which could lead to melting/run-off issues. For that reason, an areal flood risk exists, with portions of far western Maryland and east- central West Virginia in the Slight Risk for excessive rainfall from WPC. This will likely be on an issue on Sunday into early Monday.

High temperatures on Sunday will be quite challenging with ensembles showing about 15 to 20 degrees of spread between their 25th and 75th percentiles. A baroclinic zone arcing west-east across southern Virginia is forecast to lift northward as a warm front. Rain-cooled air over the region should hold this boundary at bay with the warmest temperatures being confined to central Virginia. The forecast played the cooler side of the guidance with mid/upper 40s along the Mason-Dixon Line, 50s along I-66 and Highway 50, and low 60s south of I-64.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Bands of rainfall will continue into the overnight hours with accompanying flood concerns in the areas mentioned earlier. Cannot rule out nuisance flood issues in vulnerable locations around the city centers. The parent cold front is expected to exit off the coast on Monday morning which should push a bulk of the precipitation offshore. Expect increasing sunshine in the wake of the frontal passage with highs pushing well into the 50s.

A rather potent upper trough crossing New England Monday evening will bring very gusty winds to the region. A well mixed boundary layer should be able to transport some of these stronger 925-850 mb winds down to the surface. Across the higher elevations which are in this wind field, gusts of 35 to 45 mph are possible, locally higher. Would not be surprised to see some of these gusts make it into the metro areas as well. A persistent gusty cold advection pattern will lower Monday night's temperatures to below freezing with wind chills into the teens and 20s. Some near zero wind chills are possible over the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Guidance is in reasonably good agreement Tuesday morning. A broad ridge is forecast to encompass much of the north-central U.S. with subtropical ridging holding firm across the Gulf of Mexico to the Bahamas. A shortwave trough is forecast to be embedded over the central Plains between the two ridges, with a deep upper-level low departing northern New England toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence, and a cutoff low approaching the California coast.

Tuesday should start out blustery, clear, and cold ahead of high pressure building in from the Great Lakes. Temperatures are expected to run about 5 to 10 degrees below normal for the beginning of March with lows generally in the 20s and highs in the 40s, but the wind could result in wind chills in the teens to start the day.

Guidance begins to diverge precipitously by nightfall Tuesday. The GFS continues to suggest the approaching wave over the central CONUS will shear out and pass well to our south with little impact. The latest CMC has bought on to this idea, but the ECMWF consistently brings a more amplified wave further north late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The UKMET and GFSv16 lie somewhere in between the two camps, with moderate to large ensemble spread noted, though each ensemble clusters broadly around its respective parent deterministic run (i.e. GEFS loosely cluster further south with the GFS, ECENS cluster further north near the ECMWF).

There may be enough cold air in place especially across the higher terrain as low pressure approaches Tuesday night into Wednesday to result in a wintry mix. Since this low pressure will be the result of the aforementioned cutoff low over the central CONUS, and the fact that guidance notoriously struggles with cutoff lows even in the short range, uncertainty is fairly high. But, given the synoptic pattern of ridging to the south and surface high pressure dropping into the northwestern Atlantic Ocean ahead of it, believe a surface low track should be far enough north to bring precipitation to the area (EC solution favored). Warmer air would likely accompany a further north precip shield, though, which should limit wintry precipitation potential across the lower elevations into the metros.

As is to be expected at increasing time ranges, guidance diverges toward the end of the forecast period. The EC guidance continues to strongly favor another deep trough diving into the Northeast U.S. by the end of next week, while the GEFS remains much more subdued. The GEPS (Canadian) guidance is still somewhere in between. Overall, a consensus favors a cooling trend with perhaps another wave or two bringing precipitation chances late next week.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As bands of precipitation continue to move across the area terminals, MVFR to IFR conditions are expected into the late morning/early afternoon hours. During the period of dry conditions into Saturday night, a return to VFR is likely. However, the period extending through Sunday and into Sunday night will be comprised of more IFR ceilings and visibility with additional rain moving through. Conditions dry out beyond Monday morning with gusty northwesterly winds during the afternoon and evening. Gusts to 30 to 35 knots are possible.

VFR Tue with sub-VFR possible Wed. Gusty NW flow Tue AM. Uncertainty is mod to high Tue night-Wed and relies on evolution of low pressure approaching from central CONUS.

MARINE. A brief period of SCA conditions are likely across lower portions of the Chesapeake and tidal Potomac through the morning hours. Southeasterly winds on Sunday could approach small craft levels again with the potential for northwesterly gales late Monday as a strong upper trough crosses through the northeastern U.S.

Northwesterly wind gusts to near gale force are possible Tuesday morning before diminishing later Tuesday into Tuesday night. There is uncertainty in wind direction/speed Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will rely on the evolution of low pressure approaching from the central U.S. and its ultimate track and strength as it nears the region.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ001-501. VA . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for VAZ025-026-503-504-507-508. WV . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for WVZ505-506. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ501-503. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ534- 537-543.

SYNOPSIS . DHOF NEAR TERM . BRO SHORT TERM . BRO LONG TERM . DHOF AVIATION . BRO/DHOF MARINE . BRO/DHOF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 4 mi62 min N 7 G 8.9 38°F 40°F1023.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 8 mi56 min N 11 G 12 38°F 38°F1024.3 hPa (-3.2)38°F
CPVM2 9 mi62 min 38°F 37°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 16 mi86 min ENE 1.9 38°F 1023 hPa38°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 17 mi62 min NNE 5.1 G 7 37°F 1024.6 hPa
FSNM2 17 mi62 min NE 8 G 8.9 37°F 1023.6 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 21 mi62 min NE 6 G 8 37°F 40°F1024 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 23 mi62 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 37°F 41°F1024.3 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 26 mi62 min NNE 4.1 G 7 38°F 42°F1024 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 29 mi56 min NNE 7.8 G 7.8 39°F 38°F1 ft
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 37 mi62 min E 8 G 8.9 41°F 39°F1023 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 40 mi62 min N 8 G 8.9 39°F 1023.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 45 mi62 min NNE 5.1 G 8 40°F 40°F1022.3 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD4 mi62 minNNE 53.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist38°F38°F100%1023.7 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD12 mi61 minNNE 44.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist37°F0°F%1023.7 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD14 mi61 minNNE 54.00 miOvercast36°F36°F100%1024.7 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD16 mi62 minNE 43.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist37°F35°F93%1023.7 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD20 mi60 minNE 74.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist37°F37°F99%1023.5 hPa
College Park Airport, MD20 mi61 minNNE 33.00 miOvercast36°F34°F92%1023.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNAK

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmNW4N6NE8NE544E7SE6SE6E4SE4SE5SE5S11SE10SE11E6E6NE4N5NE4N5
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NW9NW8NW10NW7NW7NW8NW4NW5CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW3CalmNW3NW3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS8S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Edgewater, South River, Maryland
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Edgewater
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Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     Full Moon
Sat -- 04:16 AM EST     0.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:13 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:28 AM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:01 PM EST     1.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:57 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:27 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.50.70.80.70.60.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.10.10.50.71110.80.50.30.1-0

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Sat -- 02:38 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     Full Moon
Sat -- 05:23 AM EST     0.68 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:12 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:13 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:13 AM EST     -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:03 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:25 PM EST     1.00 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:56 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:40 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:50 PM EST     -0.97 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-0.7-0.30.10.50.70.60.40.1-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.4-00.40.8110.70.3-0.2-0.6-0.9

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.