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Marine Weather and Tides Parole, MD Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:39AM

Sunset 5:58PM

Saturday February 27, 2021 4:55 AM EST (09:55 UTC)

Moonrise 6:28PM

Moonset 7:14AM

Illumination 100%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Parole, MD

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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington

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FXUS61 KLWX 270901 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 401 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over southeastern Virginia will move out to sea today. Another wave of low pressure will follow taking a bit further north track across the region Sunday. High pressure will build from the Northeast toward the Middle Atlantic Monday into Tuesday. Unsettled weather may return during the second half of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. The early morning radar imagery shows the initial band of precipitation slowly moving across the I-95 corridor. On its heels is a more concentrated shield of rainfall crossing the Appalachians. Its depiction is somewhat deceiving based on the appearance of bright banding. While the warm nose aloft has moved through overnight, the low-level wedge of near freezing air has been stubborn to erode. Thus, some areas of freezing rain are possible with this next wave, particularly along I-81 in central Virginia and into the adjacent higher terrain to either side. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 6 AM for this reason. Farther north into east-central West Virginia and far western Maryland, such an advisory is also in place until 10 AM. Its duration will be evaluated based on surface temperatures. By daybreak, most locations should have warmed above freezing leading to a liquid precipitation event. This is likely to wind down by the late morning to early afternoon with perhaps a few lingering isolated showers. Some peaks of sunshine are possible with high temperatures reaching the mid/upper 50s in many spots, with 40s in the mountains.

The period of dry weather will be short-lived as a wetter system looms upstream. As the initial frontal wave exits into the Atlantic, the flow aloft turns more west-northwesterly as a series of perturbations track toward the central Appalachians. A surface boundary generally parallels the low/mid-level flow which stretches along the Ohio River into central West Virginia. The 06Z NAM precipitable water values start poking into the 1.25 to 1.50 inch range which is quite anomalous for this time of year. The NAEFS mean paints these numbers above the 95th percentile on Sunday morning and afternoon. This system is being fed by a fairly healthy southwesterly low-level jet in the 40 to 50 knot range. Ample forcing from this low-level advection combined with local orographics should lead to a steady period of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall across the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands. Storm totals are forecast to run in the 1.50 to 2.00 inch range with roughly half that for locations to the east. Within the current snow/ice pack, the NOHRSC analysis paints about 2 to 4 inches of snow-water equivalent which could lead to melting/run-off issues. For that reason, an areal flood risk exists, with portions of far western Maryland and east- central West Virginia in the Slight Risk for excessive rainfall from WPC. This will likely be on an issue on Sunday into early Monday.

High temperatures on Sunday will be quite challenging with ensembles showing about 15 to 20 degrees of spread between their 25th and 75th percentiles. A baroclinic zone arcing west-east across southern Virginia is forecast to lift northward as a warm front. Rain-cooled air over the region should hold this boundary at bay with the warmest temperatures being confined to central Virginia. The forecast played the cooler side of the guidance with mid/upper 40s along the Mason-Dixon Line, 50s along I-66 and Highway 50, and low 60s south of I-64.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Bands of rainfall will continue into the overnight hours with accompanying flood concerns in the areas mentioned earlier. Cannot rule out nuisance flood issues in vulnerable locations around the city centers. The parent cold front is expected to exit off the coast on Monday morning which should push a bulk of the precipitation offshore. Expect increasing sunshine in the wake of the frontal passage with highs pushing well into the 50s.

A rather potent upper trough crossing New England Monday evening will bring very gusty winds to the region. A well mixed boundary layer should be able to transport some of these stronger 925-850 mb winds down to the surface. Across the higher elevations which are in this wind field, gusts of 35 to 45 mph are possible, locally higher. Would not be surprised to see some of these gusts make it into the metro areas as well. A persistent gusty cold advection pattern will lower Monday night's temperatures to below freezing with wind chills into the teens and 20s. Some near zero wind chills are possible over the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Guidance is in reasonably good agreement Tuesday morning. A broad ridge is forecast to encompass much of the north-central U.S. with subtropical ridging holding firm across the Gulf of Mexico to the Bahamas. A shortwave trough is forecast to be embedded over the central Plains between the two ridges, with a deep upper-level low departing northern New England toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence, and a cutoff low approaching the California coast.

Tuesday should start out blustery, clear, and cold ahead of high pressure building in from the Great Lakes. Temperatures are expected to run about 5 to 10 degrees below normal for the beginning of March with lows generally in the 20s and highs in the 40s, but the wind could result in wind chills in the teens to start the day.

Guidance begins to diverge precipitously by nightfall Tuesday. The GFS continues to suggest the approaching wave over the central CONUS will shear out and pass well to our south with little impact. The latest CMC has bought on to this idea, but the ECMWF consistently brings a more amplified wave further north late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The UKMET and GFSv16 lie somewhere in between the two camps, with moderate to large ensemble spread noted, though each ensemble clusters broadly around its respective parent deterministic run (i.e. GEFS loosely cluster further south with the GFS, ECENS cluster further north near the ECMWF).

There may be enough cold air in place especially across the higher terrain as low pressure approaches Tuesday night into Wednesday to result in a wintry mix. Since this low pressure will be the result of the aforementioned cutoff low over the central CONUS, and the fact that guidance notoriously struggles with cutoff lows even in the short range, uncertainty is fairly high. But, given the synoptic pattern of ridging to the south and surface high pressure dropping into the northwestern Atlantic Ocean ahead of it, believe a surface low track should be far enough north to bring precipitation to the area (EC solution favored). Warmer air would likely accompany a further north precip shield, though, which should limit wintry precipitation potential across the lower elevations into the metros.

As is to be expected at increasing time ranges, guidance diverges toward the end of the forecast period. The EC guidance continues to strongly favor another deep trough diving into the Northeast U.S. by the end of next week, while the GEFS remains much more subdued. The GEPS (Canadian) guidance is still somewhere in between. Overall, a consensus favors a cooling trend with perhaps another wave or two bringing precipitation chances late next week.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As bands of precipitation continue to move across the area terminals, MVFR to IFR conditions are expected into the late morning/early afternoon hours. During the period of dry conditions into Saturday night, a return to VFR is likely. However, the period extending through Sunday and into Sunday night will be comprised of more IFR ceilings and visibility with additional rain moving through. Conditions dry out beyond Monday morning with gusty northwesterly winds during the afternoon and evening. Gusts to 30 to 35 knots are possible.

VFR Tue with sub-VFR possible Wed. Gusty NW flow Tue AM. Uncertainty is mod to high Tue night-Wed and relies on evolution of low pressure approaching from central CONUS.

MARINE. A brief period of SCA conditions are likely across lower portions of the Chesapeake and tidal Potomac through the morning hours. Southeasterly winds on Sunday could approach small craft levels again with the potential for northwesterly gales late Monday as a strong upper trough crosses through the northeastern U.S.

Northwesterly wind gusts to near gale force are possible Tuesday morning before diminishing later Tuesday into Tuesday night. There is uncertainty in wind direction/speed Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will rely on the evolution of low pressure approaching from the central U.S. and its ultimate track and strength as it nears the region.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ001-501. VA . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for VAZ025-026-503-504-507-508. WV . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for WVZ505-506. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ501-503. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ534- 537-543.

SYNOPSIS . DHOF NEAR TERM . BRO SHORT TERM . BRO LONG TERM . DHOF AVIATION . BRO/DHOF MARINE . BRO/DHOF

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD	4 mi	62 min	N 7 G 8.9	38°F	40°F		1023.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD	8 mi	56 min	N 11 G 12	38°F	38°F		1024.3 hPa (-3.2)	38°F
CPVM2	9 mi	62 min		38°F				37°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD	16 mi	86 min	ENE 1.9	38°F			1023 hPa	38°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD	17 mi	62 min	NNE 5.1 G 7	37°F			1024.6 hPa
FSNM2	17 mi	62 min	NE 8 G 8.9	37°F			1023.6 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD	21 mi	62 min	NE 6 G 8	37°F	40°F		1024 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD	23 mi	62 min	NE 2.9 G 5.1	37°F	41°F		1024.3 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC	26 mi	62 min	NNE 4.1 G 7	38°F	42°F		1024 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD	29 mi	56 min	NNE 7.8 G 7.8	39°F	38°F	1 ft
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD	37 mi	62 min	E 8 G 8.9	41°F	39°F		1023 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD	40 mi	62 min	N 8 G 8.9	39°F			1023.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD	45 mi	62 min	NNE 5.1 G 8	40°F	40°F		1022.3 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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NW18 G26

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SW4 G7

W9 G12

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W10 G14

NW20

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD	4 mi	62 min	NNE 5	3.00 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist	38°F	38°F	100%	1023.7 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD	12 mi	61 min	NNE 4	4.00 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist	37°F	0°F	%	1023.7 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD	14 mi	61 min	NNE 5	4.00 mi	Overcast	36°F	36°F	100%	1024.7 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD	16 mi	62 min	NE 4	3.00 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist	37°F	35°F	93%	1023.7 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD	20 mi	60 min	NE 7	4.00 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist	37°F	37°F	99%	1023.5 hPa
College Park Airport, MD	20 mi	61 min	NNE 3	3.00 mi	Overcast	36°F	34°F	92%	1023.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNAK

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)

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2 days ago

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S8

S11 G20

S10 G20

S15 G24

S18 G28

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S12 G20

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NW3

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NW9 G18

NW12 G22

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Tide / Current Tables for Edgewater, South River, Maryland

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Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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