Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 1:01 AM   Moonset 9:56 AM

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ANZ453 Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 702 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 12 seconds and S 2 ft at 5 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 3 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue night - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 11 seconds. Wed - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers. Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers in the evening. Thu - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 9 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. Thu night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.

ANZ400 702 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay - High pressure builds in early this morning and lingers through the remainder of the day, before a series of fronts and low pressure systems affect the east coast Wednesday through the end of the week. High pressure looks to return to end the weekend and start the new week.

FXUS61 KPHI 292138 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 538 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
A back door cold front will approach the region this evening and stall across the area on Tuesday as an upper trough approaches. Showers and thunderstorms return later Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday, before weak high pressure builds in for Thursday and Friday. Another cold front approaches by the weekend which may bring some unsettled weather through early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
At 5 pm, many observations across the region were still well into the 80s. 70s were being reported near the coast. Showers and thunderstorms were in the vicinity of the back door cold front across northern NJ, southern NY and CT.

Heading through tonight it will be unseasonably mild once again, with lows in the low 60s for much of our area. However, the back door front will press in from the northeast as surface high pressure noses southward across New England. That will bring a push of cooler air on northeast to east winds, as well as some low clouds and perhaps even patchy fog from midnight through early Tuesday morning.
Model guidance varies on how far south that will reach, but it could come close to Philly by morning. That will have an effect on high temperatures on Tuesday, even while the clouds lift back north and scatter.

For now am still forecasting low 80s around Philly, but only near 70F at Trenton, and much of north NJ to the Poconos and down the shore will be stuck in the 60s with some clouds hanging around on Tuesday...a stark contrast from Monday.

By later Tuesday afternoon, we will once again need to watch out for showers and thunderstorms, this time approaching from eastern Pennsylvania. Outside of the influence of the cooler airmass from the backdoor front and onshore flow, CAPE may reach 1000-2000 j/kg along with shear of 30-35 kt of bulk shear. With some larger scale synoptic forcing from an approaching shortwave trough, and an associated weakening cold front, that should help support some stronger thunderstorms. However, it is questionable how far east across PA the better instability will extend, especially as we start to lose daytime heating toward sunset. As a result, showers and storms will likely weaken as they approach the I-95 corridor toward or shortly after sunset.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Any thunderstorm and shower activity that does enter our northwestern areas will begin to dwindle and lose their punch as we move deeper into Tuesday night. Not to say that embedded rumbles of thunder won't continue, but the firepower of the storms compared to during the day will be much less due to the loss of diurnal heating.
Regardless, best chances for showers/thundershowers on Tuesday night continue to be north and west of the I-95 corridor where up to a half inch of rain is possible. For areas south and east, most places are expected to remain quite dry aside for a passing shower under mostly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the 50s for most, with temps remaining in the 60s across the Delmarva.

By Wednesday the low pressure moves offshore, however while temps drop, humidities levels increase as dew points remain in the upper 50s. With upper trough slowing down as it passes by, there likely will be a few showers lingering across South Jersey and the Delmarva into Wednesday afternoon with rainfall amounts up to a tenth of an inch in these areas. Most places north of Philadelphia should dry out despite stubborn cloud cover hanging around most of the day.
Temps will be in the 70s for much of the area except along the shore which will be stuck in the low 60s with continued onshore flow.

By Wednesday night and Thursday, upper trough moves far enough offshore that the area is no longer impacted as upper ridge begins to approach from the west. Coinciding high pressure builds nearby as well leading to the return of sunny skies by Thursday. Lows will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s on Wednesday night before getting back up into the mid 70s to around 80 degrees on Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure remains nearby Thursday night and Friday before beginning to vacate the area into Friday night. As it does so, guidance is keen on having another backdoor cold front sinking southwestward across the area with another push of some cooler air.
On the synoptic scale back to the west, another upper trough will begin to approach the area over the weekend which will lead to periods of showers and possible thunderstorms throughout the weekend. Not looking like a washout by any means as PoPs are only in the 30-50% range, but definitely think there will be some shower activity around with abundance of low-level moisture and approaching cold front from the west. Depending on timing of the front, shower activity may linger into the start of next week as well, but the exact details on this is yet to be seen considering it is a week away.

Temperatures throughout the long term period are progged to be quite seasonable for early May with a mixed bag of 60-70s across the area.

AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Mainly VFR for most sites. However, guidance indicates a stratus layer will push in from the northeast, associated with a backdoor cold front. As a result, ceilings could lower to IFR or even LIFR from TTN to ABE northward, possibly reaching as far south as RDG, PHL, and ACY for a few hours early Tuesday. Some patchy fog may once again occur at some sites. Mainly variable or easterly winds 5 kts or less. Low confidence.

Tuesday...Some IFR/LIFR may persist until 15Z or so but should lift north of TTN and ABE before too long into the morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions for the bulk of the day. Showers and even a few thunderstorms will try to push in from the NW in the afternoon, reaching ABE/RDG after 20-21Z, and possibly surviving to near I-95 around 00Z or so. Winds will be mainly easterly at the TAF sites, but may vary around PHL and ACY as some SW winds try to push in for the afternoon. Winds will be 10 kt or less, though. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...VFR early, likely becoming sub-VFR at KABE/KRDG with showers and thunderstorms, possible sub-VFR along the I-95 corridor terminals with shower activity as well. Winds light and variable.
Moderate confidence.

Wednesday through Friday...Any lingering sub-VFR CIGs early Wednesday will become VFR by the afternoon and persist through Friday. High confidence.

Friday night through Saturday...Sub-VFR possible with rain showers.
Low confidence.

MARINE
No marine headlines anticipated through Tuesday. S to SE winds around 10 kt will become more SW later tonight into Tuesday near and south of Atlantic City, while ENE winds will persist on Tuesday farther north. Those southerly winds could gust 20-25 kt Tuesday afternoon, with seas building above 4 ft, which could briefly flirt with SCA criteria.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Saturday...Winds and seas on both the ocean waters and the Delaware Bay are expected to remain below SCA criteria. Onshore flow varying between NE to SE winds are expected through the period. Shower activity is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday with another period possible on Saturday.

CLIMATE
We are processing the climate data as I write. Any RERs will be released in a bit. But it looks like Allentown broke the previous daily record and Philadelphia tied. Check out the RERs shortly.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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West Wildwood
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Mon -- 12:16 AM EDT     4.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:04 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:01 PM EDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:51 PM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

West Wildwood, Grassy Sound, New Jersey, Tide feet

Delaware Bay Entrance
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Mon -- 01:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:06 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:54 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:42 AM EDT     1.02 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:39 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:55 PM EDT     -0.92 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:49 PM EDT     1.38 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current, knots

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