Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shenandoah Farms, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:51PM Thursday December 5, 2019 12:12 PM EST (17:12 UTC) Moonrise 1:38PMMoonset 12:34AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 1001 Am Est Thu Dec 5 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
Rest of today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 1001 Am Est Thu Dec 5 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will gradually build over the waters through tonight. A cold front will approach from the west Friday and exit by Friday evening. High pressure will return for Saturday before moving offshore Sunday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Friday through early Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shenandoah Farms, VA
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location: 39.01, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 051518 CCA AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion . CORRECTED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1018 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build toward the Mid-Atlantic from the southern U.S. through tonight. On Friday, a cold front will cross the region from the west. Another area of high pressure will follow for the weekend. The next low pressure system will approach early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.

No real changes to the near term from the previous discussion.

Noting isolated snow flurries on radar moving through northern MD under a NW flow, although it does not appear that anything measurable is reaching the ground. With the high continuing to move overhead, increasing subsidence should suppress any residual flurry activity. With good mixing through the BL, expect gusty NW winds up to 35 mph to persist throughout the afternoon, before relaxing tonight. Air temperatures will rise into the 40s to lower 50s, though the wind will make it feel chillier. The high will build across the southeastern states tonight, allowing winds to diminish. Low temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s, though mid/high clouds could thicken enough to keep it a bit warmer.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. A weak area of low pressure will move through the Great Lakes on Friday, with a trailing cold front crossing during the afternoon or early evening. Shortwave troughs will be located well to our north and south, and westerly flow off the surface will promote low level drying east of the Appalachians. Thus not expecting much precipitation with this system, though there could be some light showers along/west of the Appalachians. These showers would mainly be rain, but could end as snow. There will be a bit of a warm up ahead of the front, with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Behind the front, a large/strong area of high pressure originating from Canada will build in to start the weekend. Gusty winds Friday evening will diminish by Saturday. Cold advection will result in lows below freezing in many areas and highs in the 40s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. High pressure will move east and offshore from the New England coast on Sunday while flow remains zonal aloft. Winds will become southerly on Sunday, and this will advect warm and moist air into our region. Return flow, the increase in moisture and shortwave energy aloft will increase the chance for showers Sunday night into Monday.

A low pressure system over the Great Lakes will push its associated cold front eastward late on Monday. The front will be moving across our area on Tuesday. Chance of showers will continue Monday night into Tuesday while southerly flow continues to advect moisture into our area. Trough axis aloft will move across on Wednesday while surface high pressure starts building east and overhead into Thursday.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As an upper level disturbance exits this morning, the risk of any showers is quickly ending. Ceilings are in the VFR range, and should scatter out as the day progresses. Northwest winds have increased, with some gusts of 25-30 knots persisting through the day. Winds will diminish with sunset as high pressure builds south of the area tonight.

A cold front will cross the area Friday afternoon or early evening but will likely be dry. Gusty northwest winds greater than 20 kt are possible in its wake. No significant weather later Friday night through Saturday night with high pressure.

VFR conditions expected for Sunday into Sunday night. Chance of precipitation increases late Sunday night and remains through Tuesday. Periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible during this time.

MARINE. Gusty NW winds will continue to uptick this morning and continue into early this evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters today, and did extend until 9 PM for the wider waters since it could take some time for winds to subside. Gusts of 20 to 30 kts are likely. With high pressure to the south later tonight, winds will subside.

A cold front will approach Friday and push to the east Friday evening. Mixing ahead of the front is questionable, so did not have the confidence to issue a late third period advisory. Some of the waters will likely need an advisory Friday night with a surge of gusty NW/N winds.

High pressure will build overhead for Saturday through Saturday night with lighter winds expected.

Sub-SCA conditions expected Sunday into Monday over the waters. SCA may be needed on Tuesday with an approaching cold front.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ531>534-537>543. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530- 535-536.

SYNOPSIS . ADS NEAR TERM . BJL/ADS/MSS SHORT TERM . ADS LONG TERM . IMR AVIATION . BJL/ADS/MSS/IMR MARINE . BJL/ADS/MSS/IMR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 54 mi54 min WNW 14 G 22 1015.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 71 mi162 min NW 6 42°F 1013 hPa27°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 78 mi60 min NNW 12 G 18 44°F 51°F1013.3 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Winchester Regional, VA12 mi17 minWNW 14 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy41°F23°F49%1014.6 hPa
Leesburg / Godfrey, VA24 mi17 minNW 17 G 2410.00 miFair0°F0°F%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOKV

Wind History from OKV (wind in knots)
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NW7NW7NW4NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmS3SW3CalmCalmSW3CalmS5S6CalmCalmSW7SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:31 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:00 AM EST     2.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:28 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:33 PM EST     2.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:54 PM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.12.42.62.41.91.30.80.40.20.20.61.21.82.32.52.52.21.61.10.60.30.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:31 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:55 AM EST     2.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:23 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:28 PM EST     2.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:49 PM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.12.42.52.31.91.30.70.40.20.20.61.31.92.32.52.52.11.610.60.30.20.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.