Friday, August7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shenandoah Farms, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 8:19PM Friday August 7, 2020 8:06 PM EDT (00:06 UTC) Moonrise 9:44PMMoonset 9:00AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 737 Pm Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms this evening, then a chance of showers with isolated tstms after midnight.
Sat..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. A chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 737 Pm Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A stationary boundary will linger near the region and our marine areas this afternoon. This will result in chances for showers and Thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. The boundary will then shift offshore tomorrow, resulting in drier conditions into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shenandoah Farms, VA
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location: 39.01, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 071840 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 240 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

SYNOPSIS.

A stalled boundary will moved out of our region today. High pressure briefly builds over our area this weekend. Upper level ridge next week brings warm and more humid weather along with continue chances for storms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/.

Current surface analysis has the stationary boundary just east of the I-95 corridor and north of DC. Coverage of showers are slowly increasing with showers currently over the eastern Panhandle of WV and northern MD along with a few showers in central Virginia and southern MD. We've had mostly overcast skies today which has helped limit daytime heating. Mesoanalysis of CAPE matches this fact with CAPE values lower than yesterday near 1500. Although CAPE values are relatively low, the presence of an upper level trough combined with a weak jet should provide enough lift for thunderstorms and showers to become more widespread this afternoon and into this evening. PW's are modest west of the Blue Ridge but there is a corridor of 1.8 inch plus PW east of the Blue Ridge which is collocated with the axis of the stationary boundary.

Slow moving storms are expected to form along the boundary which could produce rain amounts of 2 to 4 inches in a short time period. The combination of 1500 CAPE along with shortwaves/ upper level jet support there will likely be some strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds. HiRes Models are showing signs of a threat corridor east of the Blue Ridge and central Virginia where the ground remains saturated from previous days rain. Showers and thunderstorms will likely through the early morning periods of Saturday with areas over our Bay and southern Maryland potentially seeing storms through 3 to 4 am. There remains some uncertainty on exact timing and where storms will set up. I think storm motion should be a little bit more progressive as the upper level trough moves through our area. Temps will likely be limited to the low to mid 80s due to the the cloud cover with overnight lows in the 60s and 70s.

The shower and storm threat should taper off by daybreak on Saturday as the trough slowly moves through our region. A few lingering showers will be possible especially over southern MD and central Virginia but I have low chance in my Pops. Patchy fog will be possible early Saturday morning as winds become light behind the storms.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/.

The upper level trough should move out of our region Saturday. A few pop showers/storms will be possible along the elevations and in central Virginia/ southern Maryland but the strength should be limited due to lack of good upper level forcing. I have kept high end slight chance pops to low end chance pops as I believe any showers/storms that form will be very isolated. The threat for any precipitation should taper off by Saturday evening with dry condtions expected through Sunday morning. Temps will run in the mid 80s on Saturday with upper 80s to low 90s on Sunday. There is a hint of a weak trough moving through on Sunday which could kick off some showers in central Virginia and south and east of the I-95 corridor. I think mainly showers and isolated in nature. This weekend should be the nicest of the up coming week.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/.

A persistent trough of low pressure is expected to set up on the leeside of the Appalachians nearly each day Monday through Wednesday. This combined with a feed of warmth and humidity from the south will set the chance for showers and a few thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.

Temperatures will top out near 90 to the lower 90s each afternoon with overnight low temperatures near 70 to lower 70s. Heat indices values will reach the lower 100s Tuesday and Wednesday.

A cold front will approach our region late Wednesday, or perhaps by Thursday. Increasing clouds and shower and thunderstorm activity will be expected with this front late Wednesday and Thursday. The cloud cover and rain chances could keep us a couple of degrees cooler Thursday with highs in the middle to upper 80s.

The cold front could be on our doorstep or set up shop over our region on Friday. This will only add to the chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Highs should reach the middle to upper 80s.


AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/.

Most terminals are seeing periods of MVFR level clouds. The main concern for all terminals this afternoon will be showers and thunderstorms which will cause strong gusty winds and brief periods of restrictions. The storm threat for all terminals should end after 9Z. MVFR to IFR ceiling/visibilities will be possible early Saturday morning due to low clouds and visibilities. VFR conditions expected for the rest of the weekend.

VFR conditions Monday through Tuesday night, except for brief showers and thunderstorms that could bring us MVFR conditions at the terminals Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Winds generally south 5 to 10 knots both days then light and variable both nights.

MARINE.

The weak boundary that has been near our marine areas will shift out early Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will be threat this afternoon and evening for our marine areas. No Small Craft issues expected for the weekend.

No marine hazards expected Monday through Tuesday night. Some thunderstorms during the afternoon hours could generate special marine warnings. Winds south around 10 knots throughout the period

HYDROLOGY.

Antecedent conditions plus high PW's and CAPE should promote more heavy rainers today. New Flash Flood Watch now in effect for areas which appear most prone to storms and flooding. Storms might have a bit more motion today which could limit the flood risk, but some areas will not take much at all given recent flooding.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for DCZ001. MD . Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ004>006-011- 013-014-016>018-503>508. VA . Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ025-026-029- 036>040-050>057-501-502-505>508. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JMG NEAR TERM . JMG SHORT TERM . JMG LONG TERM . KLW AVIATION . KLW/JMG MARINE . KLW/JMG HYDROLOGY .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 54 mi67 min 84°F 83°F1017.2 hPa (-0.0)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 71 mi97 min S 5.1 1016 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 78 mi67 min 75°F 83°F1017 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Winchester Regional, VA12 mi72 minSSE 310.00 miFair79°F69°F74%1017.6 hPa
Leesburg / Godfrey, VA24 mi72 minWNW 310.00 miFair79°F71°F79%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOKV

Wind History from OKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5S3S3S4SW5S3S4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW4N3NE3NE4E3N4N4N4N5Calm
2 days agoW4W4CalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmS5CalmN4N5CalmNE3E3SE4E5

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:20 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:00 PM EDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:41 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.82.21.61.10.70.50.511.82.633.232.51.81.20.70.40.40.71.42.22.8

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:15 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:55 AM EDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:36 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.82.21.61.10.70.40.51.11.92.633.22.92.41.81.10.70.40.40.71.52.32.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.