Friday, November27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Queens, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:46PM Friday November 27, 2020 5:58 PM EST (22:58 UTC) Moonrise 3:29PMMoonset 4:13AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 343 Pm Est Fri Nov 27 2020
Rest of this afternoon..N winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tonight..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Scattered sprinkles.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming w. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers through the day.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
ANZ500 343 Pm Est Fri Nov 27 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the waters early Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed for Saturday behind the front. A strong storm system will affect the region early next week with gale force conditions possible.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Queens, MD
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location: 39.07, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 272006 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 306 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build towards the area this weekend, before eventually moving offshore Sunday afternoon. A complex low pressure system will move in from the southwest on Monday and will slowly lift north of the area on Tuesday. High Pressure will then build in towards the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/.

High pressure will continue to nose into our region from the west tonight. An extensive area of stratocumulus will remain over much of the Northeast. The clouds are trapped under a temperature inversion. Even though some breaks may develop, the clouds are expected to be persistent until the inversion begins to weaken late tonight. A deck of mid level clouds in advance of an approaching short wave trough are forecast to pass over our region from late tonight into Saturday morning.

The mid level short wave was located over the upper Mississippi River Valley this afternoon. The feature will progress to the southeast and it should pass over our region during the late morning and early afternoon hours on Saturday. The short wave will have little moisture associated with it, so no precipitation is anticipated. Rapid clearing is expected in its wake late on Saturday afternoon.

A light and variable wind is forecast for tonight. The wind should become west 5 to 10 MPH on Saturday morning, then northwest 10 to 15 MPH with gusts around 20 MPH on Saturday afternoon, following the short wave.

Lows tonight are expected to range from the middle 30s in the elevated terrain of the Poconos and far northern New Jersey to the middle 40s in eastern Maryland, and central and southern Delaware. Highs on Saturday will likely favor the 50s, with readings not getting above the 40s up north.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/.

High pressure will build in from the south Saturday night/Sunday while an H5 shortwave ridge approaches from the west. Seasonably chilly temperatures (i.e. lows near freezing) are expected Saturday night as clear skies, dry low-lvls, and light winds generate an efficient radiational cooling setup. Due to the influence of the surface high/mid-lvl ridge mostly sunny skies are expected on Sunday with high temperatures similar to Saturday (mostly mid 50s).

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/.

Overview .

As mentioned in previous discussions a hemispheric pattern change is expected next week, with the overall synoptic pattern becoming characterized by a longwave trough over eastern North America, and a high amplitude ridge over the west.

In terms of specifics, a southern stream low (at present a cutoff low over the desert southwest) will constructively phase with a northern shortwave in the vicinity of the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday. This system will become a closed low which will only slowly lift north through mid-week, with the cold core making its closest approach to our area on Tuesday. The system's surface low will pass to our west Monday into Tuesday with High Pressure then returning for the middle of the week. Another shortwave will rotate cyclonically around the western periphery of this initial low towards the middle of next week, with another area of low pressure potentially approaching our area from the south late week into next weekend.

Dailies .

Sunday night-Monday . This will be the most active period of the extended as the strengthening southern stream low makes it closest approach to our area. Rain chances will begin to increase late Sunday night as warm advection aloft gets into gear, with rainfall likely overspreading the entire region by Monday morning as the low approaches. There is a fairly robust synoptic setup for locally moderate-heavy rainfall on Monday as we will find ourselves in the left exit region of the southern-stream UL jet (although we are a bit removed of the right entrance of the northern jet, so we don't get the complimentary jet interaction), while at the low-lvls intense warm air/moisture advection will occur driven by a strong LLJ (850 flow approaching 60-70kts near the coast). Some of the guidance is also beginning to show a brief window late Monday morning into Monday afternoon where there is some surface-based instability present which perhaps even hints at some convective potential. Did add slight-chance thunder to the forecast to account for this, and may also need to watch for a low-topped severe threat (given the very strong wind fields aloft). QPF amounts are generally similar to the previous forecast (e.g. in the 0.75-1.5 inch range), which (if accurate) would be a good soaking but would likely not lead to many significant hydro impacts.

Beyond the rainfall potential, winds will need to be watched with this system due to the aforementioned LLJ. Per usual in these warm advective, southerly flow regimes the main question is if any of this anomalously-high momentum will mix down to the surface. For this package generally went with peak overland gusts in the 25-35kt range for Monday, but can't rule out locations along the immediate coast (where the LLJ is strongest and low- lvl stability lowest). reaching advisory criteria. On a somewhat-related note, went on the higher end of guidance for MaxTs and dewpoints on Monday, as guidance tends to underestimate the thermodynamic response in these setups.

Monday night-Tuesday . The first cold front associated this system looks to cross the area Monday evening, and the system's dry slot then moves into our area. This should result in any rainfall tapering off, with temperatures steadily cooling through the night. Heading into Tuesday, we may see some light precipitation as the mid-lvl cold core approaches, but do not expect anything significant (and ptype would likely remain as rain). It will be noticeably cooler on Tuesday with highs generally in the upper 40s.

Wednesday-Thursday . A respite from active weather is expected in this time period as the low lifts northward and high pressure builds in from the south. Wednesday will be seasonably cool with highs only in the low to mid 40s, while temps should warm up about 5 degrees on Thursday. Another low potentially approaches from the south Friday/Saturday but the track/timing of this system is still uncertain.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR under a mostly cloudy sky. Variable wind 6 knots or less. High confidence.

Saturday . VFR. Mostly cloudy in the morning, with clearing during the afternoon. West northwest wind increasing to around 10 knots with gusts of 15 to 20 knots. High confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday night . VFR. West-northwest flow, but winds may become light and variable or calm. High confidence.

Sunday-Sunday night . VFR although CIGs will likely start to gradually lower Sunday night as a storm system approaches. Winds mostly light and variable on Sunday but becoming mainly light south or southwest. Overnight, a 5 to 10 kt southeast wind should develop. High confidence.

Monday-Monday night . Sub-VFR conditions expected much of the day Monday in rain, which may be heavy at times. Conditions may turn drier overnight but lingering restrictions are possible. Southeast winds during the day could gust 25 to 35 kt, with a period of higher gusts possible especially near the coast. LLWS will also be possible, particularly at sites where wind gusts are weaker. Winds should diminish overnight. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday-Tuesday night . Mainly MVFR or VFR. Winds becoming south or southwest at 5 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . VFR, with W-SW winds 10-15kts. Moderate confidence.

MARINE.

A northwesterly wind is forecast to increase to 10 to 15 knots for late tonight and Saturday morning. Speeds are expected to range from 15 to 20 knots on Saturday afternoon.

Wave heights on our ocean waters should be 2 to 3 feet. Waves on Delaware Bay are forecast to be 2 feet or less.

Outlook .

Saturday night-Sunday night . Sub-SCA conditions are expected, although winds and seas will increase late Sunday night. Northwest winds through Sunday morning shifting to southwest and then southeast on Sunday night. Seas initially around 2 ft then increasing to 4ft by late Sunday night.

Monday . S-SE winds increase considerably Monday with Gale force gusts probable and gusts to 40-45kts possible on the ocean waters. Seas will also increase into the 8-10ft range. Rain expected with thunderstorms possible.

Monday night-Wednesday . SCA conditions expected for more or less the entirety of this period with SW wind gusts remaining around 25kts and seas only gradually decreasing from around 8 ft Monday night to 5-6ft on Wednesday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Carr Near Term . Iovino Short Term . Carr Long Term . Carr Aviation . Carr/Iovino Marine . Carr/Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 11 mi59 min E 1 G 1.9 53°F 53°F1016.3 hPa
CPVM2 13 mi59 min 54°F 48°F
44063 - Annapolis 16 mi41 min 3.9 G 3.9 54°F 54°F1020.8 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 17 mi59 min Calm G 0 55°F 54°F1015.7 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 18 mi59 min N 5.1 G 5.1 54°F 54°F1017 hPa (-1.0)47°F
FSNM2 21 mi65 min ESE 4.1 G 4.1 56°F 1015.8 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 22 mi59 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 53°F 1016.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 26 mi59 min S 1.9 G 2.9 54°F 54°F1015.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 35 mi89 min NE 1.9 1015 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 35 mi59 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 57°F 52°F1015.7 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 37 mi59 min Calm G 0 53°F 51°F1016.1 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi35 min NNE 3.9 G 3.9 55°F 55°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 45 mi59 min 56°F 1016.4 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 46 mi59 min 54°F 52°F1015.3 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 47 mi59 min Calm G 0 55°F 44°F1015.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi59 min Calm G 1.9 57°F 50°F1016.3 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi149 min N 5.1 G 7 55°F 1016.9 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD11 mi64 minN 010.00 miOvercast54°F48°F82%1016.3 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD18 mi65 minN 010.00 miOvercast55°F46°F74%1016.3 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD19 mi69 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F46°F67%1016.9 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD23 mi65 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy52°F48°F88%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KW29

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N5CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4NW5CalmN3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N5N5N3NW4CalmCalm
1 day agoSE5SE6SE3SE4SE6S8S9S12S11S12
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S13S9S6S5W4NW5NW3NW3E4E3Calm
2 days agoSE3CalmSE4S4SE5SE7SE5SE8S7S5S8S7S5S9S9S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Cliffs Wharf, Maryland
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Cliffs Wharf
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:08 AM EST     1.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:13 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:26 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:08 PM EST     1.79 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:44 PM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.711.31.41.31.10.80.40.2000.20.611.41.71.81.71.51.20.90.60.5

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:35 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:06 AM EST     0.49 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:14 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:40 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:49 AM EST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:39 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:15 PM EST     1.05 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:44 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:56 PM EST     -0.90 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.20.10.40.50.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.30.10.60.9110.70.3-0.1-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.