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Marine Weather and Tides Severna Park, MD Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 5:44AM

Sunset 8:37PM

Saturday July 4, 2020 7:31 AM EDT (11:31 UTC)

Moonrise 7:28PM

Moonset 4:01AM

Illumination 99%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Severna Park, MD

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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington

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FXUS61 KLWX 040800 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak backdoor boundary will stall over the region today before dissipating tonight into Sunday. High pressure will build overhead at the surface and aloft for the early and middle portions of next week, bringing hot and humid conditions to the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Skies are currently mostly clear across the area. Low clouds have formed across portions of central and northern NJ behind a weak backdoor cold front, which is slowly pushing southwestward toward our area. Some low clouds could work into northeastern MD toward daybreak, but confidence in that occurring is currently low. As daytime heating and resultant mixing ensue, any of these clouds should lift and scatter out into a cumulus deck.

Elsewhere, ample sunshine is expected this morning. In response to this sunshine, temperatures will quickly climb through 80s, before eventually topping out in the low 90s. It will also feel humid, with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s. Heat index values will max out in the low-mid 90s in most locations, with some upper 90s possible down toward Fredericksburg.

The main forecast concern today will be when and where thunderstorms form. A weak shortwave embedded in northwesterly flow aloft will drop into the area this afternoon, moving through around peak heating. At the surface, the aforementioned very weak backdoor front will gradually move through the area today. There won't be much of a discernible temperature or moisture difference across the boundary, but there should be at least a little low-level convergence along the boundary. There are also some signs that a weak pressure trough may develop over the higher terrain. Forecast model soundings show a lot of dry air in the mid-levels, as well as hints of a weak subsidence inversion around 600 mb. As a result, it is expected that storms will have a hard time initiating away from the two previously mentioned boundaries. Have focused in higher PoPs along these boundaries, with scattered coverage expected along the boundaries and isolated coverage elsewhere. During the early-mid afternoon hours, the composite backdoor front/bay breeze will be aligned along the I-95 corridor. Storms are expected to form during the early to mid-afternoon hours, with the best chances for storms residing along the boundary extending from DC southward to Fredericksburg. Storms should also form during the mid afternoon hours over the higher terrain. These storms may eventually progress southeastward within the northwesterly flow aloft along a corridor stretching roughly from Allegany County to Orange/Culpeper Counties. Most of the thunderstorm activity is expected to die down by nightfall, given loss of daytime heating and the progression of the mid-level shortwave off to our south (placing us within a zone of subsidence aloft). The exception may be down near CHO, where showers and storms could potentially linger a bit into the overnight hours.

The environment storms will go up in today will be characterized by MLCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear values of 20- 25 knots. As a result, loosely organized multicells could be possible. With lots of mid-level dry air in place, storms may entrain a lot of dry air, leading to weaker updrafts than one might expect with 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. However, if storms are able to grow tall and punch through that mid-level dry air, that same mid- level dry air will lend itself to high levels of DCAPE. Soundings from multiple models show DCAPE values of around 1000-1400 J/kg this afternoon across the area. So if strong updrafts do occur, they will have the potential to produce localized strong downbursts of wind.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. High pressure aloft will build toward the area Sunday through Monday night while surface high pressure builds over the Atlantic. A light southerly flow along with rising heights will allow for hot and humid conditions with max temps in the 90s both days and low temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

The heat and humidity along with weak lift from a pressure trough, bay/river breezes, and terrain circulation may lead to a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours each day. Coverage should be isolated to scattered since the lifting mechanisms will be weak, but locally gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible in any storms that do develop since there will be moderate amounts of instability (both CAPE and DCAPE).

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Upper-level high pressure will continue to build toward the area Tuesday before settling overhead Wednesday through Friday. Most guidance indicates that a cutoff upper-level low will develop to the south Tuesday, and strengthen as it moves offshore Wednesday through Friday. The details of exactly where the upper-level low will be remain uncertain at this time, but most guidance suggests that it will remain to our south. If this occurs, then thunderstorms will remain isolated to scattered and confined mainly to the afternoon and evening hours. However, should the upper-level low track farther north, then more widespread showers and thunderstorms would occur. Will continue to lead toward the first scenario based on the latest guidance, which means more hot and humid conditions are likely and convection will be more isolated or scattered.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Winds will be very light out of the north overnight. Conditions are currently VFR at all terminals. Low clouds are forming across central/northern NJ. These clouds may try to work their way into northeastern MD around daybreak. Confidence in this occurring remains low, so just have a scattered in the TAF at BWI and MTN for now. We will continue to assess this potential through the remainder of the night.

Any low clouds that move in should rise and scatter into a cumulus deck by around midday. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at all terminals this afternoon. Temporary drops to sub-VFR conditions will be possible in any thunderstorms that form this afternoon. A stray shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled at any of the terminals, but DCA and MRB have the greatest chance to see a thunderstorm. In terms of timing, think that most of the activity will occur between 18 and 22z. Chances may linger a bit later into the evening and potentially even into the overnight hours at CHO. Winds will start out light out of the north , before gradually switching around to light out of the east during the afternoon and evening hours.

Skies are expected to clear tonight across most of the area. Winds will shift around to light out of the south, but may eventually go calm at MRB and CHO. With clear skies and calm winds, fog may be possible overnight tonight at MRB. If skies clear out at CHO, fog may be possible there as well. If winds were to go calm, fog could also be possible at IAD, but there seems to be a lesser chance of that occurring.

Hot and humid conditions are expected Sunday through Wednesday along with chances for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Patchy fog is possible during the late night and early morning hours each day as well.

MARINE. Light winds are expected over the waters today through tonight. They will start out northerly, then gradually turn around to easterly over the course of the daylight hours, then southerly to eventually even southwesterly overnight. Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon over the waters, and could lead to the issuance of Special Marine Warnings.

A southerly gradient wind should remain below SCA criteria most of the time Sunday through Wednesday. However, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours each day, and locally gusty winds are possible in any thunderstorm that develops.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A light southerly flow will develop tonight into Sunday, and it will persist through early next week. This will cause water levels to be elevated. Minor flooding is possible at sensitive areas, beginning with the high tide cycle later tonight and continuing into early next week. However, confidence is low because the flow will be light.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . BJL NEAR TERM . KJP SHORT TERM . BJL LONG TERM . BJL AVIATION . BJL/KJP MARINE . BJL/KJP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . BJL

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD	8 mi	43 min	NW 4.1 G 5.1	81°F	82°F		1011.9 hPa
CPVM2	11 mi	43 min		78°F				71°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD	11 mi	43 min	NE 6 G 7	77°F			1012.3 hPa
FSNM2	11 mi	55 min	N 6 G 7	76°F			1012.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD	14 mi	43 min	NNE 6 G 8	78°F	75°F		1011.9 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD	14 mi	31 min	N 12 G 13	78°F	80°F		1013.2 hPa (+1.2)	71°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD	20 mi	49 min	ENE 1.9 G 4.1	76°F	82°F		1012.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD	21 mi	121 min	Calm				1011 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC	28 mi	43 min	NW 1.9 G 2.9	80°F	83°F		1012.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD	36 mi	25 min	N 14 G 14	80°F	79°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD	43 mi	43 min	NNE 8.9 G 11	77°F	83°F		1011.9 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD	47 mi	43 min	NNW 12 G 12				1012 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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NW9

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W13 G16

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD	8 mi	37 min	N 5	10.00 mi	Fair	77°F	69°F	77%	1012.5 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD	10 mi	37 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	76°F	68°F	77%	1012.2 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD	14 mi	36 min	NNE 5	7.00 mi	Fair	77°F	73°F	89%	1012.5 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD	20 mi	37 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Clear	75°F	69°F	83%	1012.2 hPa
College Park Airport, MD	20 mi	36 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	72°F	65°F	79%	1012.5 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD	23 mi	95 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	73°F	65°F	78%	1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNAK

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)

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NW6

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NW5

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Tide / Current Tables for Brewer Point, Maryland

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Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (7,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE

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