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Marine Weather and Tides Severna Park, MD Version 3.4

NOTICE 3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone. 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:03AM

Sunset 8:22PM

Thursday July 29, 2021 5:36 PM EDT (21:36 UTC)

Moonrise 10:44PM

Moonset 10:47AM

Illumination 70%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Severna Park, MD

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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington

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FXUS61 KLWX 291934 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 334 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will approach the area later today and move through tonight. A reinforcing front will move through tomorrow, with high pressure building in its wake for the first half of the weekend. Additional systems may impact the region from Sunday into the early to middle portions of next week as troughing becomes established over the eastern half of the country.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined MCV over western portions of our forecast area. Mainly showers accompany this feature at the moment, but cells are just starting to pop within the zone ahead of it. The expectation is that cells will intensify to the east of the Blue Ridge over the next 1-2 hours as ascent in advance of the MCV overspreads the area of higher instability to the east of the Blue Ridge. Current mesoanalysis shows around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE near the spine of the Blue Ridge, with instability increasing with eastward extent to around 1500 J/kg along the bay. SPC Mesoanalysis shows a belt of around 40 knots of flow at 700 hPa along the Mason-Dixon line, decreasing to around 25 knots at the southern CWA border. At 500 hPa, 40-50 knots of flow is analyzed over the entire CWA. 18z IAD sounding matches up well with those parameters, showing 823 J/kg of MLCAPE, 36 knots of flow at 700 hPa, 40 knots of flow at 500 hPa, and an effective bulk shear value of 43 knots. Given the overlap of shear and instability to the east of the Blue Ridge, supercells appear possible, with upscale growth into bowing segments also possible. With a supercellular storm mode, damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes are all possible. The greatest tornado threat in our area will likely reside across northeastern and north central Maryland, where the greatest low- level shear resides. For that reason, those locations are in a Tornado Watch, while the rest of the CWA is in a severe thunderstorm watch. Flooding looks to be a low, but non-zero threat as storms will be moving along at a fast clip.

In terms of timing, the main round of severe weather is expected to be with the storms developing now (3 PM) ahead of the MCV. This area of storms is nearing the Blue Ridge now, and should progress eastward across the area over the next 2-3 hours, moving over the bay by around 6 PM or so. More isolated activity is possible behind this initial activity. Another more focused round of storms may form across the Ohio Valley late this afternoon and move toward the Allegheny Front this evening. Models are in lesser agreement regarding activity behind the initial round with the MCV, but a few storms could potentially linger into the overnight since the cold front will still be situated off to our north and west. The front will press southward through the area during the second half of the overnight, bringing chances for storms to an end.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. By daybreak tomorrow, the cold front will be situated just to our south, and will continue to push further to our south throughout the day. Much drier air will gradually advect into the area in northwesterly flow behind the front, with dewpoints dropping from the upper 60s around daybreak to the 50s by evening. Cold advection aloft will largely be offset by diurnal heating, with high temperatures still climbing into the mid to upper 80s. Mostly sunny skies are expected along with a northwesterly breeze. Winds may gust to in excess of 20 mph during the afternoon hours.

A reinforcing cold front will move through tomorrow night, with cooler and even drier air moving into the are in its wake. Lows Friday night will dip into the 50s across the northwestern half of the forecast area, with lower 60s across the southeastern half of the area.

A mix of sun and some high clouds is expected on Saturday as high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley. Winds will be lighter compared to tomorrow. Temperatures will only reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s, and dewpoints will drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s, leading to an uncharacteristically cool day for late July, with well below normal humidity values.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A mid-level trough of low pressure and a surface front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Highs in the middle 80s.

Weak high pressure will build in behind the front and bring dry and slightly cooler temperatures into the region Sunday night and Monday. Highs Monday lower to middle 80s.

As for Tuesday and Wednesday, a variety of uncertainties expected with a possible front dropping in from the northwest, a possible coastal low to the south and southeast, and timing of each. Should the front win out on verifying, then severe weather could be possible mainly in the western and central zones. If the coastal low wins, then more of a persistent modest rain could evolve which could lead to some localized flooding in the heaviest activities. Highs each day will be in the middle to upper 80s.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Confidence is increasing that thunderstorms will impact the terminals during the mid to late afternoon hours today. TEMPOs have been introduced into the TAFs where the threat is greatest to narrow in on timing. Coverage of storms is expected to decrease moving into this evening, but at least some threat for an isolated storm or two will last through the first half of the overnight hours.

VFR conditions are expected for both tomorrow and Saturday. Winds may gust to around 20 knots out of the northwest tomorrow afternoon. Lighter winds are expected on Saturday as high pressure builds toward the area from the Ohio Valley.

Isolated showers or a thunderstorm near a few of the terminals could reduce conditions to MVFR briefly; otherwise, VFR conditions expected Sunday through Monday night. Winds southwest 5 to 10 knots Sunday, becoming northwest 5 knots Sunday night. Winds northwest becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots Monday. Winds light and variable Monday night.

MARINE. Winds will gradually increase over the waters today. SCAs are in effect later this afternoon into this evening for southerly channeling. SMWs will likely be needed over the waters this afternoon into this evening. Winds in excess of 50 knots, large hail and even isolated waterspouts may be possible in association with storms this afternoon into this evening. SCA winds are expected again tomorrow in northwesterly flow behind a cold front. This SCA may eventually need to be extended into tomorrow night as a reinforcing cold front moves through. Lighter west to northwesterly winds are expected over the waters on Saturday.

No marine hazards expected Sunday through Monday night. Winds southwest 10 knots Sunday, then northwest becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots Sunday night and Monday. Winds light and variable Monday night.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will result in some locations reaching action stage through tonight. Minor flooding is most likely to occur at the most sensitive sites, such as Annapolis. As the winds become northwest behind the front on Friday, the anomalies will decrease.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ531>533-539>541. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ534-543. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ537.

SYNOPSIS . KJP NEAR TERM . KJP SHORT TERM . KJP LONG TERM . KLW AVIATION . KLW/KJP MARINE . KLW/KJP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . CPB/KLW

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD	8 mi	48 min	SE 4.1 G 9.9	87°F	84°F		1009.4 hPa
44063 - Annapolis	10 mi	42 min	S 12 G 16	80°F	82°F	1 ft	1010.8 hPa
CPVM2	11 mi	48 min		82°F				76°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD	11 mi	48 min	SSW 9.9 G 12	85°F			1009.4 hPa
FSNM2	11 mi	48 min	SSW 8 G 12	85°F			1009.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD	14 mi	48 min	WSW 6 G 9.9	86°F	84°F		1009.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD	14 mi	36 min	SE 13 G 14	82°F	82°F		1010.7 hPa (-2.9)	77°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD	20 mi	48 min	S 7 G 11	83°F	82°F		1010.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD	21 mi	66 min	WSW 6	84°F			1010 hPa	71°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC	28 mi	48 min	S 9.9 G 12	85°F	85°F		1009.8 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD	36 mi	42 min	S 12 G 14	81°F	83°F	1 ft	1011.5 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD	43 mi	48 min	S 7 G 13	85°F	84°F		1010.9 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD	47 mi	48 min	SSE 9.9 G 9.9	85°F			1010.8 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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E9

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E9 G12

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SE4 G7

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SE10

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD	8 mi	42 min	SSE 6	8.00 mi	Fair	84°F	74°F	72%	1009.9 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD	10 mi	42 min	SSW 6	10.00 mi	Thunderstorm	87°F	67°F	51%	1009.4 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD	11 mi	41 min	SW 3	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	82°F	70°F	66%	1010.8 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD	20 mi	42 min	SSE 9	10.00 mi	Rain	82°F	77°F	84%	1010.5 hPa
College Park Airport, MD	20 mi	61 min	SSE 5	10.00 mi	Fair	85°F	68°F	57%	1009.8 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD	23 mi	40 min	SSW 9	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	85°F	71°F	62%	1009.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNAK

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)

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NE4

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1 day ago

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2 days ago

SE7

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Calm

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Tide / Current Tables for Brewer Point, Maryland

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Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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