Tuesday, January19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Severna Park, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:13PM Tuesday January 19, 2021 12:49 PM EST (17:49 UTC) Moonrise 11:11AMMoonset 11:54PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 943 Am Est Tue Jan 19 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon...
Rest of today..W winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 943 Am Est Tue Jan 19 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain south of the waters through tonight. A weak cold front will pass through the waters late tonight into Wednesday morning. High pressure will briefly build overhead Wednesday night before moving offshore Thursday. Canadian high pressure will build toward the waters waters late in the week into the weekend. There is a potential for gale force winds Wednesday, and small craft advisories will likely be needed for at least portions of the waters Wednesday night through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Severna Park, MD
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location: 39.07, -76.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 191545 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1045 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will continue to build over the southeastern United States this afternoon. A low pressure system sliding through the Great Lakes region into the northeast will bring a cold front through the region late tonight into Wednesday morning. An upper level disturbance will swing through on Wednesday. A cold front will cross the area Thursday night, before high pressure builds back in from the northwest through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A potent upper shortwave will dive southeastward into our region tonight for an upslope snow threat. Stratocumulus deck overspread most of the region west of the I-95 corridor. Clouds will likely clear out this afternoon as dry air advection takes hold at the mid- levels. Think that clouds stay put over the mountains though, where some light upslope snow is occurring and will persist into the afternoon. High temperatures will be above average, reaching into the mid 40s to low 50s at the lower elevations. Atop the highest ridges out west through, temperatures stay below freezing. Snowfall amounts throughout the day this afternoon will amount to an inch or less for the Allgheny Front.

For tonight, a much different story. The aforementioned upper shortwave over the northern Plains will swing through the region overnight into Wednesday morning. This will amplify the upslope snow showers along/west of the Allegheny Front. Most of this activity falls in the morning hours on Wednesday, but snow showers will continue into the afternoon as well. Accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected, which resulted in the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory for Garrett County in western MD, and western Grant and Pendleton counties in eastern WV.

Outside of the mountains though, there is the slight chance that we get some snow showers in northern VA and north-central MD along the Mason-Dixon line. Perhaps could even get a few flurries or a snow shower as far south as DC. Best timing for this would be mid-morning into early afternoon. There will be a lot of dry air around though, so may be tough to get much to the ground that far south. Don't see much being able to stick either, given that surface temperatures will be in the mid 30s, and recent days have been above average. Snow is not the only threat Wednesday though, as it will be quite windy during the first half of the day. Wind gusts really pick up after sunrise, with wind gusts up to 40 mph possible through sunset. With high temperatures only in the mid 30s to low 40s, this will keep wind chills into the mid 20s to low 30s for the non-mountainous regions. For the mountains, wind chills will reach the single digits, and may even drop below 0.

Winds should diminish by later in the evening as gradients decrease. By the overnight hours, lows will dip into the low to mid 20s in most areas, with low to mid teens expected across the mountains.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Quiet weather returns for Thursday. High pressure to the south will be slowly trying to push offshore, bringing temperatures back up into the mid 40s. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will be approaching from the northwest. This boundary has very little in the way of an air mass change to come along with it, and will have no moisture either. So other than a push of gusty winds during the afternoon, not much to speak of with this system. Low temperatures Thursday night dip into the 20s and low 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A nearly zonal flow aloft is expected Friday through Sunday while a couple closed upper-level low pressure systems remain over southern and eastern Canada. The confluence zone between the upper- level lows will allow for high pressure to build from Canada and the northern Plains toward over our area.

With the high approaching for Friday and Saturday it will turn out blustery. The cold advection will be offset by sunshine and a downsloping flow Friday, so max temps may be near or even a little above climo. However, stronger cold advection will cause chilly conditions for Friday night and Saturday.

Winds will diminish for Saturday night and Sunday as the high builds overhead, but it will remain chilly.

Low pressure (with Pacific origin) may impact the area early next week, bringing the chance for rain or snow. Details are highly uncertain this far out, but with Canadian air in place combined with the potential for significant moisture getting drawn into the system from the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico, this will have to be monitored over the next several days.

AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR conditions are expected through Saturday at all terminals. The main concern will be gusty winds this afternoon and Wednesday. Winds W to WSW, potentially gusting up to 20-25 knots. Gusts quickly drop off after sunset though, as mixing decreases. For Wednesday, WNW flow returns, with winds gusting closer to 25 to 35 knots at times. Again, this will taper off late afternoon/early evening. Other than that, there is the chance for a snow shower at MRB Wednesday morning or early afternoon. Perhaps could even see flurries or a snow shower at IAD, DCA, BWI, or MTN during the same timeframe, but chances are even less. Impacts should be minimal though, as accumulating snow should stay well to the west of all terminals.

VFR conditions are most likely for Thursday through Saturday, but gusty northwest winds are possible. The strongest winds are most likely Saturday with 20 to 30 knot gusts possible.

MARINE. Winds will pick up this afternoon to result in a Small Craft Advisory, as gusty winds aloft should be able to be mixed down to the surface. Winds will diminish rather quickly into the evening hours, so the SCA only runs until just after sunset, when mixing will be cut off.

For Wednesday, gusty northwest winds are expected and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters. A Gale Warning may be needed for portions of the waters during this time. However, confidence for Gale Force winds were not high enough at this time for a warning, since there is some uncertainty as to exactly how high the mixing layer will be, and consequently whether there will be 35 kt at the top of the mixing layer vs winds around 30 kt. Winds will diminish Wednesday night as high pressure builds overhead, but an SCA will likely be needed for portions of the waters, especially Wednesday evening.

For Thursday, Small Craft Advisories again possible, especially over the lower Bay and lower tidal Potomac. This in response to an approaching frontal boundary.

High pressure will approach the waters for Friday through Saturday night, and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for portions of the waters during this time.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for MDZ001. VA . None. WV . Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for WVZ501-505. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ530-535-536-538-542.

SYNOPSIS . CJL NEAR TERM . KLW/CJL SHORT TERM . CJL LONG TERM . BJL AVIATION . BJL/KLW MARINE . BJL/KLW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi49 min SSW 8.9 G 15
CPVM2 11 mi61 min 42°F 31°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 11 mi49 min WSW 11 G 16
FSNM2 11 mi49 min WSW 9.9 G 15
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 14 mi49 min WSW 6 G 9.9
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi49 min SSE 11 G 11 41°F 41°F1021.3 hPa (-1.6)31°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi49 min SW 8.9 G 9.9
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi79 min SW 8 46°F 1020 hPa26°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 28 mi49 min SW 8 G 13
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi43 min W 14 G 14 44°F 41°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 43 mi49 min SSW 9.9 G 14
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi49 min WSW 16 G 21

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi55 minSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy46°F24°F42%1020.7 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD10 mi55 minSW 5 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F22°F41%1020.1 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD11 mi54 minSW 11 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy45°F28°F53%1021 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD14 mi54 minSSW 9 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F23°F43%1020.7 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD20 mi55 minSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F27°F53%1021 hPa
College Park Airport, MD20 mi54 minWSW 5 G 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy45°F20°F37%1020.3 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD23 mi53 minSW 1310.00 miA Few Clouds47°F24°F40%1021.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNAK

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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W8W6W4W44W3W5CalmW4CalmSW3CalmSW4SW3S4SW6SW7
1 day agoW9
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3SW4Calm43CalmCalmW3Calm3W3CalmW3CalmCalmSW4NW3CalmW6W10
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2 days ago4W7NW7NW8W5W4W4W6W7W9
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W7SW54W4W5SW4SW6SW5SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Brewer Point, Maryland
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Brewer Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:29 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:16 AM EST     0.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:10 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:35 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:27 PM EST     0.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:54 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.30.1-0-0.1-0.1-00.10.30.50.50.50.40.30.20.1-0-00.10.20.30.50.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:04 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:29 AM EST     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:47 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:04 AM EST     0.82 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:09 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:32 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:20 PM EST     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:19 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:06 PM EST     0.49 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:53 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.30.10.50.70.80.70.50.2-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.10.20.40.50.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.