Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Severna Park, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:22PM Thursday July 29, 2021 5:36 PM EDT (21:36 UTC) Moonrise 10:44PMMoonset 10:47AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 439 Pm Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
.tornado watch 401 in effect until 9 pm edt this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon...
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and scattered tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat night..S winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers after midnight. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 439 Pm Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong cold front will approach the area through this evening before crossing the region late tonight. A second, weaker front will cross the region Friday night. High pressure will build in for Saturday before another area of low pressure possibly affects the region Sunday. Small craft advisories may be needed Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Severna Park, MD
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location: 39.07, -76.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 291934 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 334 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will approach the area later today and move through tonight. A reinforcing front will move through tomorrow, with high pressure building in its wake for the first half of the weekend. Additional systems may impact the region from Sunday into the early to middle portions of next week as troughing becomes established over the eastern half of the country.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined MCV over western portions of our forecast area. Mainly showers accompany this feature at the moment, but cells are just starting to pop within the zone ahead of it. The expectation is that cells will intensify to the east of the Blue Ridge over the next 1-2 hours as ascent in advance of the MCV overspreads the area of higher instability to the east of the Blue Ridge. Current mesoanalysis shows around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE near the spine of the Blue Ridge, with instability increasing with eastward extent to around 1500 J/kg along the bay. SPC Mesoanalysis shows a belt of around 40 knots of flow at 700 hPa along the Mason-Dixon line, decreasing to around 25 knots at the southern CWA border. At 500 hPa, 40-50 knots of flow is analyzed over the entire CWA. 18z IAD sounding matches up well with those parameters, showing 823 J/kg of MLCAPE, 36 knots of flow at 700 hPa, 40 knots of flow at 500 hPa, and an effective bulk shear value of 43 knots. Given the overlap of shear and instability to the east of the Blue Ridge, supercells appear possible, with upscale growth into bowing segments also possible. With a supercellular storm mode, damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes are all possible. The greatest tornado threat in our area will likely reside across northeastern and north central Maryland, where the greatest low- level shear resides. For that reason, those locations are in a Tornado Watch, while the rest of the CWA is in a severe thunderstorm watch. Flooding looks to be a low, but non-zero threat as storms will be moving along at a fast clip.

In terms of timing, the main round of severe weather is expected to be with the storms developing now (3 PM) ahead of the MCV. This area of storms is nearing the Blue Ridge now, and should progress eastward across the area over the next 2-3 hours, moving over the bay by around 6 PM or so. More isolated activity is possible behind this initial activity. Another more focused round of storms may form across the Ohio Valley late this afternoon and move toward the Allegheny Front this evening. Models are in lesser agreement regarding activity behind the initial round with the MCV, but a few storms could potentially linger into the overnight since the cold front will still be situated off to our north and west. The front will press southward through the area during the second half of the overnight, bringing chances for storms to an end.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. By daybreak tomorrow, the cold front will be situated just to our south, and will continue to push further to our south throughout the day. Much drier air will gradually advect into the area in northwesterly flow behind the front, with dewpoints dropping from the upper 60s around daybreak to the 50s by evening. Cold advection aloft will largely be offset by diurnal heating, with high temperatures still climbing into the mid to upper 80s. Mostly sunny skies are expected along with a northwesterly breeze. Winds may gust to in excess of 20 mph during the afternoon hours.

A reinforcing cold front will move through tomorrow night, with cooler and even drier air moving into the are in its wake. Lows Friday night will dip into the 50s across the northwestern half of the forecast area, with lower 60s across the southeastern half of the area.

A mix of sun and some high clouds is expected on Saturday as high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley. Winds will be lighter compared to tomorrow. Temperatures will only reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s, and dewpoints will drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s, leading to an uncharacteristically cool day for late July, with well below normal humidity values.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A mid-level trough of low pressure and a surface front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Highs in the middle 80s.

Weak high pressure will build in behind the front and bring dry and slightly cooler temperatures into the region Sunday night and Monday. Highs Monday lower to middle 80s.

As for Tuesday and Wednesday, a variety of uncertainties expected with a possible front dropping in from the northwest, a possible coastal low to the south and southeast, and timing of each. Should the front win out on verifying, then severe weather could be possible mainly in the western and central zones. If the coastal low wins, then more of a persistent modest rain could evolve which could lead to some localized flooding in the heaviest activities. Highs each day will be in the middle to upper 80s.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Confidence is increasing that thunderstorms will impact the terminals during the mid to late afternoon hours today. TEMPOs have been introduced into the TAFs where the threat is greatest to narrow in on timing. Coverage of storms is expected to decrease moving into this evening, but at least some threat for an isolated storm or two will last through the first half of the overnight hours.

VFR conditions are expected for both tomorrow and Saturday. Winds may gust to around 20 knots out of the northwest tomorrow afternoon. Lighter winds are expected on Saturday as high pressure builds toward the area from the Ohio Valley.

Isolated showers or a thunderstorm near a few of the terminals could reduce conditions to MVFR briefly; otherwise, VFR conditions expected Sunday through Monday night. Winds southwest 5 to 10 knots Sunday, becoming northwest 5 knots Sunday night. Winds northwest becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots Monday. Winds light and variable Monday night.

MARINE. Winds will gradually increase over the waters today. SCAs are in effect later this afternoon into this evening for southerly channeling. SMWs will likely be needed over the waters this afternoon into this evening. Winds in excess of 50 knots, large hail and even isolated waterspouts may be possible in association with storms this afternoon into this evening. SCA winds are expected again tomorrow in northwesterly flow behind a cold front. This SCA may eventually need to be extended into tomorrow night as a reinforcing cold front moves through. Lighter west to northwesterly winds are expected over the waters on Saturday.

No marine hazards expected Sunday through Monday night. Winds southwest 10 knots Sunday, then northwest becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots Sunday night and Monday. Winds light and variable Monday night.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will result in some locations reaching action stage through tonight. Minor flooding is most likely to occur at the most sensitive sites, such as Annapolis. As the winds become northwest behind the front on Friday, the anomalies will decrease.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ531>533-539>541. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ534-543. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ537.

SYNOPSIS . KJP NEAR TERM . KJP SHORT TERM . KJP LONG TERM . KLW AVIATION . KLW/KJP MARINE . KLW/KJP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . CPB/KLW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi48 min SE 4.1 G 9.9 87°F 84°F1009.4 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 10 mi42 min S 12 G 16 80°F 82°F1 ft1010.8 hPa
CPVM2 11 mi48 min 82°F 76°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 11 mi48 min SSW 9.9 G 12 85°F 1009.4 hPa
FSNM2 11 mi48 min SSW 8 G 12 85°F 1009.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 14 mi48 min WSW 6 G 9.9 86°F 84°F1009.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi36 min SE 13 G 14 82°F 82°F1010.7 hPa (-2.9)77°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi48 min S 7 G 11 83°F 82°F1010.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi66 min WSW 6 84°F 1010 hPa71°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 28 mi48 min S 9.9 G 12 85°F 85°F1009.8 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi42 min S 12 G 14 81°F 83°F1 ft1011.5 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 43 mi48 min S 7 G 13 85°F 84°F1010.9 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi48 min SSE 9.9 G 9.9 85°F 1010.8 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi42 minSSE 68.00 miFair84°F74°F72%1009.9 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD10 mi42 minSSW 610.00 miThunderstorm87°F67°F51%1009.4 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD11 mi41 minSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F70°F66%1010.8 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD20 mi42 minSSE 910.00 miRain82°F77°F84%1010.5 hPa
College Park Airport, MD20 mi61 minSSE 510.00 miFair85°F68°F57%1009.8 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD23 mi40 minSSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F71°F62%1009.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNAK

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4CalmE4NE4E10E12SE10S7S7SE5SE7SE10SE10SE9SE8SE8SE9SW6S6--S10S8S7SE6
1 day agoS9S8S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW3NW4N7N3N5N6NE66NE8E7E9NE5NE6
2 days agoSE7SE6N3CalmCalmNW3N3NW3NW4W3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE3SE7SE9SE8SE10SE9S8

Tide / Current Tables for Brewer Point, Maryland
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Brewer Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:33 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:18 AM EDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:59 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:09 PM EDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.80.70.50.50.50.50.70.911.11.110.80.60.50.40.30.40.50.70.91.11.1

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:56 AM EDT     -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:51 AM EDT     0.66 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:37 PM EDT     0.87 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40-0.3-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.300.40.60.70.50.3-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.5-0.10.30.60.80.9

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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