Saturday, August8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Avalon, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:03PM Saturday August 8, 2020 4:24 AM EDT (08:24 UTC) Moonrise 10:55PMMoonset 10:44AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ453 Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 401 Am Edt Sat Aug 8 2020
Today..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A slight chance of tstms late. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 401 Am Edt Sat Aug 8 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A stationary front is expected to weaken and washout during the day today. High pressure will build into the area tomorrow, before progressing offshore early next week. A cold front will approach new england around the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avalon , NJ
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location: 39.11, -74.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 080750 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 350 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. A stationary front is expected to weaken and washout during the day today. High pressure will build into the area tomorrow, before progressing offshore early next week. A cold front will approach New England around the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. The front will continue to sag south of our area through Saturday, becoming increasingly diffuse as it does so. At the surface the Mid- Atlantic will lie between a decaying (and weak) offshore low, and an elongated area of High Pressure centered over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. H5 heights will rise slightly behind the passage of a fairly potent shortwave this morning with associated mid-lvl drying.

The day will begin with some stratus and (likely more limited in spatial coverage) fog, and expect that the stratus will only slowly burn off through the morning hours and may even persist into the early afternoon in some spots (particularly near the coast) given very prevailing onshore flow.

The weak dynamic subsidence behind the aforementioned wave combined with drying aloft, and generally weaker lapse rates should limit convective coverage and intensity today. That being said enough low- lvl moisture remains pooled across our area to support the development of isolated or perhaps even scattered convection this afternoon. Guidance generally focuses convective initiation on two areas, the first being near the NJ/Delaware coasts near the sea breeze boundary, while the second area is associated with a weak trailing shortwave that crosses the Poconos late this afternoon. Focused the highest PoPs in these locations, but did broadbrush at least Slight Chc everywhere. Given only modest shear/instability/lapse rates think the overall severe threat is low. The heavy rain threat doesn't appear to serious either given decreasing moisture, however can't completely rule out some locally heavy rainfall given the moist low-lvls.

Highs should top out in the mid 80s in most spots, although with dewpoints near or above 70 it will feel fairly muggy.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/. In general a quiet night is expected tomorrow night, however some guidance is depicting some light precipitation in association with a weak shortwave later in the night. Not really buying anything notable at this point as the dynamics look weak, and (as is important in the warm season) the diurnal timing is not favorable. Fog/Stratus potential doesn't look particularly impressive with only the most pessimistic guidance (e.g. the NAM and its derivatives) showing it developing. Lows should generally range from the mid 60s to the low 70s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Overview: For a change, the long term should be starting rather tranquil as far as weather is concerned. A broad mid and upper level trough slowly drifting east may bring the next chance for showers and thunderstorms as early as mid week.

Details:

Sunday and Monday . In the wake of the mid level trough finally exiting our region, high pressure is expected to build in. The GFS and ECMWF continue to show a weak upper level trough traversing the Canadian Maritimes, but any impacts from this system should stay well to our north. Thanks to the low level southerly/southwesterly flow, expect a slight warming trend, with highs mostly in the upper 80s on Sunday and lower 90s on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday . A broad upper level low is expected to continue to slowly drift east across central Canada. There continues to be some uncertainty in how soon, if at all, our region will see impacts (both in the form of rain and a cold front) associated with this system. Some of the more progressive solutions show rain in our region as early as Monday night, with the cold front getting into the southern Poconos by Wednesday before stalling. Other guidance shows rain chances in our region not increasing until Wednesday night and the front stalling well north of our region. For now, have stayed close to the previous forecast and a consensus blend of guidance until there is better agreement on the timing of this system.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through this morning . Generally expect most sites to settle into the high-end IFR/low-end MVFR range early this morning although periodic breakouts to VFR (particularly RDG/ABE) and drops to LIFR (particularly MIV/ACY) will be possible. Winds will be 5kts or less with variable direction. Moderate confidence

Saturday afternoon . Morning stratus should lift/erode by early afternoon with VFR conditions expected. There will a chance of showers/thunderstorms this afternoon but confidence is low on coverage and timing. Winds will start light and variable although later in the afternoon more established easterly/southeasterly winds could spread through the coastal/I-95 terminals from E-W. Moderate confidence.

Saturday night . Generally VFR conditions expected with winds either southerly or variable with speeds 5 kts or less. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Sunday through Monday . VFR conditions expected. Winds mostly southwesterly up to 10 kt, except near the coast (including KACY and KMIV) each afternoon where a sea breeze could shift winds to southerly or southeasterly at 10 to 15 kt). High confidence.

Tuesday and Wednesday . Mostly prevailing VFR conditions. However, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours, which could result in brief MVFR or even IFR conditions. Southerly to southwesterly winds 5 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions are expected with light easterly winds (gusts <15kts) and around 2 foot seas prevailing through the day on Saturday

Outlook .

Sunday through Wednesday . Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria.

Rip Currents . The Rip Current risk is expected to remain low through the weekend as wave heights in the surf zone remain in the 1-2 foot range and a 7-10 second southeasterly swell prevails.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park Pennsylvania (Station WNG-704) remains off the air.

The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Franklin Township New Jersey (Station KZZ-31 ) is off the air.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Johnson Near Term . Carr Short Term . Carr Long Term . Haines/Johnson Aviation . Carr/Johnson Marine . Carr/Johnson Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 15 mi54 min NE 2.9 G 6 69°F 70°F1019.1 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 22 mi54 min N 13 G 14 1019.7 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 24 mi54 min 71°F 69°F1020.5 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 30 mi54 min NNW 5.1 G 8 74°F 76°F1019.2 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 33 mi54 min NW 1.9 71°F 1021 hPa70°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 36 mi54 min 71°F 1020 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 45 mi34 min 2 ft

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KWWD

Wind History from WWD (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Ingram Thorofare, New Jersey
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Ingram Thorofare
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:59 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:21 PM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:17 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.13.8321.10.50.20.51.32.233.53.83.83.32.51.71.10.80.91.42.233.5

Tide / Current Tables for Dennis Creek, Route 47 bridge, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Dennis Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:15 AM EDT     5.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:57 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:41 PM EDT     4.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:10 PM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.255.45.24.53.31.90.90.60.81.42.33.44.34.84.94.43.52.31.30.811.52.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.