Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avalon, NJ

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Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 7:50PM Monday August 19, 2019 10:45 PM EDT (02:45 UTC) Moonrise 10:11PMMoonset 9:53AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ453 Expires:201908201330;;492571 Fzus51 Kphi 200132 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 932 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz452-453-201330- Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 932 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Overnight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 932 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A weak cold front will move into the region tonight. The front stalls near our area through Tuesday before moving northward on Wednesday. A stronger cold front will drop down into the area Wednesday night and then slowly sag southward through Thursday. Low pressure will track along the slow moving front on Thursday. High pressure will then build down from the northwest on Friday and persist through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avalon , NJ
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location: 39.11, -74.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 200120
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
920 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
A weak cold front will move into the region tonight. The front
stalls near our area through Tuesday before moving northward on
Wednesday. A stronger cold front will drop down into the area
Wednesday night and then slowly sag southward through Thursday. Low
pressure will track along the slow moving front on Thursday. High
pressure will then build down from the northwest on Friday and
persist through the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Still a few showers across NE md this evening where some
residual heat and humidity remains from earlier today. A weak
front will drift across the area overnight. Patchy low clouds
are possible overnight as well as some fog, especially in areas
that received rain. Few changes to temps winds were needed from
earlier.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
The flow aloft Tuesday is forecast to be more zonal, however a short
wave trough which looks to be convectively enhanced is forecast to
be approaching the upper ohio valley later in the afternoon. This is
pretty much tracking along a west to east weak cold front that
should become nearly stationary across our area. This will result in
some cooling and also lowering dew points along and north of it,
however how far south the lowered dew points get is more uncertain.

As a result for now, we will continue with the heat advisory Tuesday
for the urban i-95 corridor from trenton to philadelphia to
wilmington however this is of lower confidence given much of the
guidance is cooler (some lower dew points).

For the convective potential, some showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop mainly from mid-afternoon onward near and south
of the stalled front. There looks to be a light northeast to
southeast surface flow, and this may help to keep much of the
convective development south and just west of our area for much of
the day. As a result, made some adjustments to the pops to reflect
this idea. The severe thunderstorm risk looks low as it appears we
would have to wait for any organized storms to arrive from the west.

The SPC currently has a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms from
berks county southward to portions of delaware and marylands eastern
shore.

For Tuesday night, an incoming short wave trough that looks to be
convectively enhanced will near closer. Some downstream warm air
advection and also isentropic lift over a lingering surface front
may help so develop or sustain some convection. The chance of this
looks to be the highest across the northern zones and the higher
pops were placed there. Low temperatures are mainly a continuity and
mos blend.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Unsettled pattern continues through Thursday before high pressure
builds in across the eastern us.

On Wednesday, the back door frontal boundary that stalls near the
area Tuesday is forecast to return northward as a warm front early
in the day. Some showers will be possible early in the day as the
front lifts northward, but the better chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be during the afternoon as a couple of short
waves vorticity impulses aloft interact with a lee-side thermal
trough that remains across the mid-atlantic region. It will remain
quite warm and humid, with temperatures several degrees above normal
and dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s, so there will remain a
fair amount of instability across the area with CAPE values reaching
1,500-2,000 j kg. Bulk shear is not overly impressive at 25 to 30
knots as mid level winds are fairly weak. Nevertheless, there will
remain a chance for some of the strongest updrafts to produce
locally damaging winds and large hail. SPC has our area outlined in
a marginal risk for severe weather. Another concern on Wednesday
will be the threat for heavy rainfall. Pw values reach 1.75-2.00
inches and storm motions do not appear to be very fast so any
thunderstorms will likely be efficient rain producing storms and
could cause flooding concerns. The shower and thunderstorm activity
is expected to diminish overnight Wednesday as daytime instability
wanes and the short wave vorticity impulses from the afternoon
passes eastward.

A cold front is forecast to move into the area late Wednesday night
into early Thursday, before sliding eastward through the day. As the
day wears on, instability will build ahead of the cold front, while
shear begins to increase. There will be a chance for some strong
thunderstorms to develop, which could produce strong winds and hail.

Heavy rain will continue to be a concern as pw values increase to 2+
inches, so any storms that develop will likely be efficient rain
producing storms. The storms will likely continue for eastern areas
as the front progresses eastward, but as the front moves offshore,
showers and thunderstorms will come to an end.

The forecast for Friday remains uncertain as differences continue
between the GFS and ecmwf. The GFS pushes the front far enough south
to keep the area dry, while the ECMWF has the front stalling just to
our south with an area of low pressure moving along the boundary.

This would bring a period of rainfall to much of the area Friday.

The previous model run of the ECMWF had the front and low, but not
as far north but still had some precipitation for parts of the area.

For now, we will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms for the
southern half of the area due to the uncertainty.

Saturday through Monday are expected to stay dry. High pressure
builds across the northeast and mid-atlantic region on Saturday,
then builds to our northeast on Sunday and moves offshore on Monday.

As the high builds offshore, there may be an increase in cloud
cover, but conditions are expected to remain dry across the
forecast area.

Temperatures for Friday through Monday are expected to be below
normal and dewpoints will be much lower than the next few days.

Aviation 01z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Overnight...VFR outside of any lingering showers this evening,
then some local stratus and or fog cannot be ruled out overnight.

Light westerly winds or light and variable calm.

Tuesday... Local MVFR early due to possible fog, otherwiseVFR. Some
showers and thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon into the
overnight, resulting in temporary MVFR ifr conditions. Light winds
becoming northeast to east then southeast 4-8 knots during Tuesday,
then becoming light and variable at night.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Wednesday night... GenerallyVFR conditions
expected. MVFR or lower possible in showers and thunderstorms. South-
southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots
possible.

Thursday through Thursday night... GenerallyVFR conditions expected.

MVFR or lower possible in showers and thunderstorms. West-southwest
winds around 5 to 10 knot veering to the west-northwest later in the
day and overnight behind a cold front. Winds could gust 15 to 20
knots behind the cold front overnight at times.

Friday...VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds around 5 to 10
knots may gust 15 to 20 knots at times.

Saturday...VFR conditions expected. Northerly winds less than 10
knots.

Marine
The conditions are expected to remain below small craft advisory
criteria through Tuesday night. A wind shift from southerly to
northeast and east will occur overnight into Tuesday, before
shifting southeasterly.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Wednesday night... Conditions expected to remain
below advisory levels, although winds could gust around 20 knots and
seas approach 4 to near 5 feet at times.

Thursday through Thursday night... There is a chance winds and waves
may approach advisory levels for the southern new jersey and
delaware coastal waters Thursday into Thursday night. The rest of
the waters are expected to remain below advisory levels.

Friday through Saturday... Conditions are expected to be below
advisory levels on Friday and Saturday..

Rip currents...

a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents continues
through tonight with southerly winds and waves around 2 feet in the
surf zone.

For Tuesday, a low risk is anticipated once again despite a
northeast wind becoming east to southeast.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Tuesday for paz070-071-102-104-
106.

Nj... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Tuesday for njz015-017>019.

De... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Tuesday for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Po
short term... Gorse
long term... Robertson meola
aviation... Gorse robertson meola
marine... Gorse robertson meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 15 mi52 min S 5.1 G 8.9 79°F 78°F1016 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 22 mi58 min 1016.7 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 24 mi52 min 78°F 77°F1017 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 30 mi52 min SW 6 G 8.9 81°F 74°F1016.4 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 33 mi76 min Calm 59°F 1016 hPa57°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 36 mi52 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 82°F 84°F1017.2 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 37 mi136 min Calm 79°F 1015 hPa73°F
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 45 mi56 min SSW 12 G 14 80°F 80°F3 ft1016.4 hPa (+1.2)

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ11 mi1.8 hrsS 610.00 miFair78°F73°F87%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWWD

Wind History from WWD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----SW4--SW6----SW4SW5S4S6S6--S9S8S10S6--S15SW9SW8S5S6SW6
1 day agoCalmS3S3SE3S4--S4SW4SW4SW4--CalmS4SE6S12S9S10S11S10S13S8S6S4S5
2 days ago------E4E3Calm--CalmNE3E6--E8NE8E6E6SE9SE7SE11S8S8S6S6S6S3

Tide / Current Tables for Ingram Thorofare, New Jersey
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Ingram Thorofare
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Mon -- 05:16 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:26 AM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:31 PM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:36 PM EDT     4.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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43.32.31.30.60.20.31.12.133.63.93.83.42.61.81.10.70.71.22.133.63.9

Tide / Current Tables for Dennis Creek, Route 47 bridge, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Dennis Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:30 AM EDT     5.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:08 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:52 PM EDT     5.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:18 PM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.95.45.44.83.62.21.10.60.81.42.23.34.24.95.14.63.72.51.30.70.81.42.23.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.