Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 2:45 AM   Moonset 1:15 PM

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FXUS61 KILN 020139 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 939 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry and warm weather conditions are expected into Thursday before rain and storm chances return Friday and continue periodically into early next week. Above normal temperatures are expected to persist through early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
A band of high clouds has overspread the forecast area from the west, and any remaining cumulus will dissipate over the next few hours. This will leave generally quiet conditions overnight, with light winds. May see some fog development in river valleys in the southeastern CWA, such as the lower Scioto River and the Ohio River near Portsmouth.

Will continue with a slight chance of showers in the far western ILN CWA during the early morning hours, as several models have suggested a few showers could progress across central Indiana into west-central Ohio. Most locations will remain dry.

Previous discussion > An upper level ridge axis will remain centered over the Ohio Valley this afternoon through the overnight. Simultaneously, a weak surface high moves overhead while a zonally-oriented cold stalls across Ohio and Indiana somewhere south of I-70. Although some instability is forecast to be present just south of the front, moisture and forcing remains weak. In fact, with ridging building in, upper level conditions are not very supportive of rain or thunder chances this afternoon/evening. Forecast lows south of the front remain in the upper 50s. Lows north of the front are in the lower to middle 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
Weak surface high pressure slowly progresses east of the Ohio Valley on Thursday along with an upper level ridge axis. Southerly winds develop during the day as the surface high moves east leading to increasing temperatures and moisture through the day. Instability is expected to accompany the theta-e surge so there could be a low end thunderstorm chance by the afternoon since no capping is forecast.
Any mesoscale outflow boundaries could even lead to more scattered storm formation should storms get going. DCAPE is also expected to by fairly high so locally gusty winds are possible in the strongest storms. Forecast highs rise into the lower and middle 80s across the area under a mix of sun and clouds.

Surface high pressure and upper level ridge axis keep moving further east of the area Thursday night. Rain chances may initially decrease to start the night with the lose of diurnal instability before increasing late as an upper level shortwave starts approaching from the southwest. Southerly winds keep temperatures mild overnight.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Upper level ridging across the region begins to break down on Friday into Friday night when a shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley.
This upper level wave helps lead to shower and thunderstorm chances by Friday afternoon and evening when instability is forecast to peak. Overall instability looks marginal and shear remains weak thus the severe risk is likely to be very low. Conditions remain mild and humid on Friday and Friday night.

The Ohio Valley may be between systems on Saturday leading to slightly reduced rain chances for the daytime hours. Mild temperatures and humid conditions persist.

Shower and storm chances are expected to start increasing again Saturday night into Sunday when a weak front approaches from the north. Exact timing and placement of the front is fairly uncertain thus the exact timing of showers and storms remains rather vague. It is very possible the chances for rain increase when CAM runs come in as the time frame gets closer with the front dropping down. The severe risk remains very low since instability and shear are weak.

The front may finally push south of the area later on Sunday into Sunday night briefly leading to a reduction in rain chances and temperatures to start the week. Shower and thunderstorm chances redevelop Monday or Tuesday with the return of warm, humid conditions. Some storms might be stronger since a potentially supportive upper level pattern with increased shear is expected.

AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with the exception of some MVFR fog at KLUK tonight.

Southwest winds will become light and variable tonight, eventually settling into a southeasterly direction by morning.
Winds should remain at or below 10 knots tomorrow, shifting to the south by early afternoon.

Late tomorrow afternoon, there is a slight chance that some showers or storms could approach KDAY. As of now, this probability appears to be too low to include in the forecast.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times from Friday through Monday. MVFR ceilings are possible Friday into Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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