Sunday, February28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Church Hill, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 5:57PM Sunday February 28, 2021 10:21 PM EST (03:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:38PMMoonset 7:42AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 941 Pm Est Sun Feb 28 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday morning through Monday afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from Monday evening through late Monday night...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 1 ft... Building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt... Diminishing to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 941 Pm Est Sun Feb 28 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will track along a stalled front tonight, then then front will gradually push south Monday. High pressure will build in from the west Monday night into Tuesday. Low pressure will likely pass to the south of the region Wednesday. Small craft advisories may be needed on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Church Hill, MD
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location: 39.15, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 010243 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 943 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will lift northward through the region this evening. Low pressure develops along the boundary and passes off the New Jersey coast tonight, dragging a cold front through the region late tonight. A secondary cold front will cross the region on Monday night. High pressure will follow for Tuesday. A weak, but dry, cold front may cross the region on Wednesday followed by a return to high pressure through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. The warm front is progressing northward through our region now. Low pressure will develop along the front in Maryland, before sliding off the New Jersey coast late tonight. The low should strengthen on Monday as it moves over the waters off New England. The circulation around the low is anticipated to pull a cold front through our region from the northwest on Monday morning.

We are currently in the lull (though light rain and drizzle will be possible through this lull) until the second round of rain, currently in SW VA and WV, arrives in our region late tonight. Expecting rain amounts with the second round to be up to one half inch, though can't rule out some locally higher amounts. We should have enough of a lull prior to then that the runoff from the earlier round of rain should have a chance to recede, somewhat limiting the threat for additional flooding (more details below in the hydrology section).

A marked clearing trend is expected for Monday afternoon in the wake of the cold front.

Slowly rising temperatures are anticipated for tonight. Highs on Monday should occur in the late morning and early afternoon hours. They are expected to range from the lower 40s on the Pocono Plateau to near 60 in southern Delaware.

A light and variable wind is forecast for tonight. A west wind 5 to 10 MPH on Monday morning should become northwest and increase to 10 to 20 MPH in the afternoon. Gusts may begin to approach the 30 to 40 MPH range late in the day. A Wind Advisory will begin at 4:00 PM Monday for the northeastern half of our forecast area.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The cold front should be well offshore by Monday night but with a strong mid level shortwave, combined with a strong upper jet crossing the region, winds will become very gusty especially during the overnight period. With increasing confidence, we have issued a Wind Advisory for the southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and Bucks county in Pennsylvania; northern and central New Jersey and nearby southern New Jersey (Burlington and Ocean counties) where confidence is highest as well as that is the area closest to the juncture of higher winds aloft. Expect winds to gust round 40 to 45 mph in the advisory area. Expansion of the advisory is possible though there is still some question as to how well we mix the further south we go. Overall, winds will gust around 35 to 45 mph across the entire region. A pocket of arctic air sneaks down behind the front, crossing through the northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic late Monday into early Tuesday. Temperatures will plummet into the upper teens to mid 20s, with pockets of single digits possible in the higher terrain. With the blustery winds it will feel even colder and by daybreak it will feel more like the single digits to mid teens through much of the area. Wind chills will get down to around 0 to -10 across the southern Poconos and northwestern New Jersey.

High pressure builds in from the west on Tuesday before sliding to south and offshore Tuesday evening. Tuesday should be mostly dry as the high builds in but with strong cold air advection in place, a weak shortwave/cold front crossing during the afternoon, we may need to keep an eye on the potential for any lake effect streamers to reach the forecast area. The potential for squalls exists but confidence is pretty low as the instability wanes and looks unfavorable. For now we continue to leave the forecast for Tuesday dry. Temperatures on Tuesday will be cold though we should see plenty of sunshine. Daytime highs will remain in the 30s through much of the area with 20s across the higher terrain, which is around 15 to 20 degrees colder than on Monday. Winds weaken through the day as the high shifts across our area and then to our south. Winds should become fairly light overnight and with relatively clear skies we should radiate very efficiently. Overnight lows will drop into the 20s with some teens across the northern zones. With the winds starting to shift more to the south or southwest overnight, it should help to prevent us from really seeing the bottom drop out of the temperatures overnight.

The high shifts offshore and pushes to the east on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a low pressure system develops to our southeast and crosses the Carolinas. Another low pressure system will pass to the north of us. We kind of get squeezed between the two systems with the high remaining in control of our weather. It is possible that the high breaks down more than currently modeled and we could see a few stray showers push into Delmarva but overall guidance has really dried things out and kept the low far enough to our south. As the low to our north pushes to the east it looks to drop a weak front through our area. The front is dry so it won't do much other than have a wind shift in our area. With the southwest flow at the surface, temperatures moderate and it should be considerably warmer than the day before. Highs will rise into the 40s to lower 50s. Even going on the warm side of guidance, temps may be forecast too low as the models have not done well with how much we have warmed in the southwest flow so far this winter. Expect Wednesday to be a rather nice day across our forecast area.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. With high pressure building in across the region, it looks to remain dry through the weekend. The warming trend seems less likely as we go through the week as a stacked low to our northeast starts to retrograde and push to the west. This low will start to drag cooler air down into our area as the surface high gets squeezed to the south. Highs will drop each day with upper 30s to near 50 on Thursday and upper 20s to low 40s on Friday.

The upper low starts to break down and deepen into a trough as we head into the weekend. As it continues to deepen and starts to push east, we should start to see an end to the cooler air locked in over the region. The airmass should start to modify over the weekend and temps will start to slightly warm. Saturday may be similar to Friday but Sunday will start to warm by a few degrees as the next high starts to slide into the region.

Guidance still shows a storm developing along the Gulf of Mexico but with the strength of the low to our north keeping the high entrenched over us, we may not see any precipitation reach our area. One thing to keep an eye on is if the guidance has the low modeled accurately or if it is overdone which could suggest a shift northward.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . IFR/LIFR conditions with periods of rain and drizzle. Wind becoming variable 6 knots or less. High confidence.

Monday . IFR/LIFR in the early morning with rain ending from northwest to southeast. Conditions are expected to improve through MVFR to VFR in the 13Z to 18Z time frame. West wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest around 15 knots with gusts up to 25 or 30 knots in the afternoon. Medium to high confidence.

Outlook .

Monday Night . VFR. Northwest winds around 10 to 20 knots with gusts around 35 to 40 knots, with the highest winds along the coast. Slight chance for snow showers at KRDG/KABE early in the evening. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday through Tuesday night . VFR. Northwest winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots in the morning. Winds become west to southwest overnight, less than 10 knots. High Confidence.

Wednesday through Wednesday night . VFR. Westerly winds less than 10 knots, becoming northwest late. Moderate Confidence.

Thursday through Friday . VFR. Northwest winds around 10 to 15 knots. Medium confidence.

MARINE. Low pressure is forecast to pass off the New Jersey coast late tonight. The low should strengthen on Monday as it moves northeastward over the waters off New England.

Areas of fog will be possible through very early Monday morning, until another round of rain arrives. Thus, a dense fog advisory has been issued for the Delaware Bay and Delaware coastal waters. For the New Jersey Coastal waters, some fog is possible, but not confident that dense fog will develop.

An east wind 10 to 15 knots this evening, should become south to southwest overnight. The wind is expected to become west, then northwest on Monday with speeds increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Gusts may approach 35 knots late in the day. A Gale Warning begins at 4:00 PM Monday.

Outlook .

Monday night through Tuesday . Gale Warnings are in effect for all waters for Monday night into Tuesday. Northwest winds around 20 to 30 knots with gusts around 35 to 45 knots. Gales will end in the upper Delaware Bay in the early morning on Tuesday and around mid day/early afternoon on the lower Delaware Bay and ocean waters. Winds diminish through the day on Tuesday, falling to 15 to 20 knots by the afternoon. Seas building to 4 to 7 ft Monday night then dropping down to 3 to 4 feet by later Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for a period of time once the Gales are taken down.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night . Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters.

Thursday through Friday . Northwest winds around 10 to 20 knots with gusts around 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, nearing 5 feet Thursday night. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed.

HYDROLOGY. We continue to focus on the potential for locally minor flooding in the Passaic and Raritan River basins in New Jersey. The combination of snowmelt, rainfall the past two days, and additional rain very late tonight will continue to result in significant rises on area rivers.

Currently, minor flooding is forecast to begin on the Millstone River around Blackwells Mills Monday afternoon, and around Pine Brook on the Passaic River on Monday night. The Passaic River may reach caution stage (just below flood stage) at Millington, and the Raritan River may reach caution stage at Bound Brook. All other forecast points in the two river basins are anticipated to remain below caution stage though water levels will be high.

There is only one forecast point outside of the two river basins where caution stage may be reached: Pemberton on the North Branch of the Rancocas Creek in Burlington County.

We saw some sharp rises on our smaller and faster responding waterways in far SE PA and N DE Sunday afternoon and evening. However, all of these sites have already crested, and with the exception of the East Branch of Brandywine Creek around Downingtown, all have remained below flood stage. The break between the first and second waves of rain should limit the flooding threat late tonight with the second wave of rain. Though we may see a secondary rise in response.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Wind Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ054- 055-061-062-105-106. NJ . Wind Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for NJZ001- 007>010-012>015-019-020-026-027. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Gale Warning from 4 PM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ431- 450>455. Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ430-431-454- 455. Gale Warning from 4 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ430.

Synopsis . Meola Near Term . Iovino/Johnson Short Term . Meola Long Term . Meola Aviation . Iovino/Johnson/Meola Marine . Iovino/Johnson/Meola Hydrology . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 14 mi52 min N 5.1 G 6 40°F 40°F1013.4 hPa
CPVM2 23 mi52 min 41°F 41°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 28 mi52 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 43°F 39°F1013.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 28 mi52 min NW 5.1 G 6 42°F 41°F1012.6 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 28 mi52 min N 4.1 G 4.1 42°F 1013.5 hPa
FSNM2 28 mi52 min N 6 G 7 43°F 1012.6 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 29 mi22 min NNW 8 G 8 42°F 39°F1013.8 hPa (-2.4)42°F
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 30 mi52 min Calm 44°F 1014 hPa44°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 32 mi52 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 43°F 41°F1013 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 35 mi52 min ESE 11 G 12 43°F 38°F1013.6 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 36 mi52 min 41°F 39°F1012.7 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 37 mi52 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 40°F 1013.1 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 40 mi52 min Calm G 1 45°F 40°F1012.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 45 mi52 min ENE 1 43°F 1012 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 47 mi34 min N 1.9 G 1.9 40°F 39°F
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 48 mi52 min S 12 G 13 1013.1 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD21 mi27 minN 40.50 miFog41°F0°F%1013.2 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD24 mi84 minNNE 56.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist43°F42°F99%1014.6 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD24 mi32 minN 00.25 miFog46°F46°F100%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KW29

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Tide / Current Tables for Chestertown, Maryland
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Chestertown
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:13 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:42 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:51 AM EST     1.70 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:07 PM EST     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:55 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:31 PM EST     2.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.1-000.30.81.31.61.71.51.10.60.1-0.3-0.5-0.4-00.51.21.7221.71.2

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:06 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:01 AM EST     0.79 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:43 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:00 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:01 PM EST     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:58 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:57 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:10 PM EST     0.92 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:18 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-0.8-0.5-00.40.70.80.70.40-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.400.40.80.90.80.60.1-0.3-0.7

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