Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Church Hill, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:43PM Sunday December 8, 2019 3:33 PM EST (20:33 UTC) Moonrise 2:47PMMoonset 3:20AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 306 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain or drizzle likely.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain or drizzle likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain or snow likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 306 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will develop over the central united states and lift into the great lakes through Monday. A warm front developing east of this area of low pressure over the carolinas is expected to lift northward across the mid-atlantic during this time. The aforementioned low will drag its trailing cold front through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Monday night through Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Church Hill, MD
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location: 39.15, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 081716 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1216 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will shift off to the east today. A warm front will move through the region Monday as an area of low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes. A cold front associated with that low will then approach and move through the area on Tuesday and into Tuesday night. A wave of low pressure tracking along the front will likely affect the mid-Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday. Strong high pressure will build in Thursday and into Friday. Unsettled weather may return by next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 12:30 AM Update . Adjusted temperatures and dew points to match current observations, then warmed them slightly this afternoon. Increased cloud cover a tad this afternoon given the cirrus on their way from the Midwest. Rain is still on par to move in overnight. Tomorrow will be a far cry from today's seasonable weather. Previous Forecast . High pressure builds offshore of the east coast through today, which will set up a return flow across the area. Dry weather remains across the area as there is little moisture across the area as evident of PW values less than 0.50 inches. Clouds will increase through the day, especially later this afternoon as a short wave moves into the area from the west. As wind shift to a southerly direction today, a few gusts around 15-20 mph will be possible.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/. The evening will start out dry across the area with increasing cloud cover. However, as the low levels become saturated, and more moisture lifts across the area ahead of a warm front approaching from the south, areas of precipitation may develop for many areas. Initially, some patchy light rain or drizzle may develop as the low levels become saturated as the low level inversion become more pronounced. As the deeper saturation develops north of the approaching warm front and short wave, the drizzle will likely become a steadier light rain for many areas. The overnight hours will not be a super soaker, but that will likely change for Monday. If the precipitation begins early enough across portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey, some sleet may mix in for a brief period, before changing to all rain.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Overview .

An active week of weather is ahead, as multiple disturbances will be impacting the region with several periods of precipitation. The most prominent synoptic feature for the first half of the week will be a Great Lakes low passing to our west Monday and into Tuesday, leading to a major warm-up but also a prolonged unsettled stretch. By late Tuesday night and into Wednesday, we will be watching what happens behind the cold frontal passage associated with the Great Lakes low. A wave of low pressure behind the front could bring some snow to the area during that time. Strong high pressure and cold air look to build in towards the end of the work week. By next weekend, most indications are that active weather will return, though uncertainty is high during that period.

Dailies .

Monday-Monday night . As low pressure moves across the Great Lakes, a warm frontal passage will bring a period of rain to the region, especially during the afternoon, evening, and early overnight. In addition, an area of moisture offshore looks to get entrained in the strong low level southerly flow behind the warm front. This could further enhance rainfall especially in coastal areas. Mainly light to moderate rain is expected but could see a couple downpours. Rain should taper off later Monday night especially to the south, with an unseasonably warm overnight expected. Also some wind concerns Monday as guidance indicates 60 kt or more of wind possible at 850mb. However, as usual in cold season southerly flow, the low levels look pretty stable and much of that wind will fail to mix down. So right now expecting surface gusts to stay mostly under 30mph but there is some room for those numbers to go up if thermodynamic profiles start to look a little more favorable.

Tuesday . We'll still be under the broad sphere of influence of the same weather system from the prior day on Tuesday, with a cold front approaching from the west. I have a suspicion Tuesday may actually turn out to be a decent day at least over its first half, as we briefly get deeper into the warm sector. Reduced PoPs dramatically for the morning hours, still at chance levels but even that may be too high especially to the east. As the front gets closer and a vorticity impulse tracks up along it, another steadier period of rain or showers is likely by later in the day. Very warm Tuesday as well ; many areas will break into the 60s, and some guidance suggests parts of Delmarva could exceed 70, though did not go that far yet. Between Monday and Tuesday, total rainfall should range from 1 to 2 inches. Not expecting this to cause any noteworthy hydro issues based on current hydrologic conditions, maybe just isolated nuisance or poor drainage flooding during any periods of heavier rain.

Tuesday night-Wednesday night . Uncertainty increases here. The approaching cold front slows down as it crosses the region, and guidance indicates multiple additional impulses will ride up along the front Tuesday night and early Wednesday. This should lead to steady precip continuing through Wednesday morning, and with colder air seeping in there will be ptype concerns this period. Guidance indicates a change to snow from west to east Tuesday night into Wednesday, with varying degrees of overlap between colder air and QPF. Am always skeptical of setups like this, as it is a game of "thread the needle" to actually get accumulating snow in the coastal plain, which is where it looks like QPF will be most focused this period. We've seen two similar setups this season with negligible snowfall. While this one does look a little more impressive, I'd need to see signals a little stronger in the guidance before I'd be on board for more than a nuisance snow event. Surface temps will likely stay above freezing even after the change over, with snow ratios likely to be well below 10:1 in most areas. So while early indications are that some light snow accumulations are possible, not holding expectations too high. There was somewhat of a trend with this cycle to shift the trailing impulses and associated precip a little further west. If the westward trend continues, there may be a better shot of accumulating snow in the interior since those areas will be colder. Everything should pull away Wednesday afternoon and evening with dry weather returning and a cold night with continued CAA. Another reinforcing cold front may move through during the night Wednesday, but it looks to be a dry frontal passage save for maybe a snow shower or squall in the Poconos.

Thursday-Friday . Dry weather, but also quite cold as strong high pressure builds in. Thursday looks especially cold, with highs likely struggling to crack the freezing mark in most areas just two days removed from being in the 60s. Lows Thursday night may be colder than currently forecast as it will probably be a good night for radiational cooling. Some moderation occurs by Friday but still below average. Probably still dry as well, assuming the GFS is too fast with bringing in the next system from the south, with the high remaining nearby.

Next weekend . A lot of uncertainty, mainly to do with timing differences in the guidance on an area of low pressure coming up from the south. Given active weather earlier in the week didn't dive too deep here and kept the forecast for this period close to consensus and the previous forecast. Best guess at this point would be that Saturday is an unsettled day with potentially some clearing by Sunday. Early indications are for mainly rain with the system next weekend, but we will fine tune as it gets closer.

AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR conditions will continue through today with mostly high level cirrus clouds through most of the day. Clouds will increase through the day however. Light and variable winds early increase out of the southeast, then south through today as high pressure builds offshore of the east coast. Speeds will be mostly 5-10 knots, with occasional gusts around 15-20 knots. High confidence.

Tonight . Clouds continue to increase in coverage and lower with their heights through the evening and overnight. MVFR conditions are expected to develop by 05z-06z and lower through the overnight into early morning hours Monday. Light rain or drizzle may also develop by 05z-06z, before becoming a steadier rain by daybreak Monday. South to southeast winds around 5 knots during the evening will become light and variable for most places overnight. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Monday-Monday night . MVFR or IFR conditions likely in periods of rain. Steady southwest winds likely, with gusts to 30 kt possible at times. LLWS is likely as well. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday . Could be a period of VFR conditions Tuesday morning, but a return to MVFR or IFR is likely later in the day as more rain moves in. West-southwest winds of 10 to 20 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night-Wednesday . IFR likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with rain changing to snow. By later Wednesday, conditions may trend towards MVFR or VFR. Winds becoming west-northwesterly for most of this period with speeds around 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night-Thursday . VFR. Light northwest winds becoming northerly on Thursday. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Today-tonight . Conditions on the waters are expected to remain below advisory levels through most of the day as high pressure shifts offshore. However, a brief period of Small Craft Advisory levels winds are expected for the Atlantic coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet northward later this afternoon into this evening. Winds will diminish back below advisory levels overnight.

Outlook .

Monday-Tuesday night . Marine headlines are likely for the early part of the week. Mainly SCA conditions expected from Monday through Tuesday night. Considered a Gale Watch for Monday and Monday night; while current forecast keeps conditions below gale force, cannot rule out a period of southerly gales on Monday. Winds turning southwesterly Monday night and Tuesday then northwesterly on Tuesday night with gusts mainly 25 to 30 kt, but decreasing on Tuesday night. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

Wednesday . Conditions are expected to fall to sub-SCA levels with lighter northwest winds and 3 to 4 ft seas.

Wednesday night-Thursday . Current forecast calls for marginal SCA level conditions with north-northeasterly winds gusting to around 25 kt. Building seas later in the week will likely yield additional marine headlines.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ450>452.

Synopsis . O'Brien Near Term . Davis/Robertson Short Term . Robertson Long Term . O'Brien Aviation . Davis/O'Brien/Robertson Marine . Davis/O'Brien/Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 14 mi51 min SSW 9.9 G 12 44°F 44°F1030.3 hPa
CPVM2 23 mi51 min 44°F 38°F
44063 - Annapolis 27 mi27 min S 9.7 G 12 44°F 45°F1030.4 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 28 mi45 min 45°F 1029.4 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 28 mi51 min SSE 2.9 G 6 44°F 44°F1030.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 28 mi45 min S 12 G 15 44°F 1029.5 hPa
FSNM2 28 mi57 min SSE 9.9 G 15 43°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 29 mi33 min ESE 8 G 8.9 44°F 45°F1030.7 hPa (-2.4)34°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 32 mi51 min SSW 6 G 8.9 45°F 48°F1029.2 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 35 mi51 min SE 13 G 15 43°F 46°F1030.5 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 36 mi57 min 43°F 44°F1029.9 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 37 mi57 min SSE 8.9 G 12 42°F 46°F1030.4 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 40 mi57 min SE 5.1 G 8 49°F 44°F1030 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 45 mi123 min SSE 8 45°F 1030 hPa33°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 47 mi33 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 45°F 1 ft1030.7 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 48 mi45 min 1031 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD21 mi38 minSSW 710.00 miFair46°F32°F57%1030.1 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD24 mi43 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F28°F43%1031.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KW29

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3N3CalmCalmN5Calm----Calm--CalmE5E4------CalmSE6SE6S8SE10S8S9S6
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Tide / Current Tables for Chestertown, Maryland
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Chestertown
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:19 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:54 AM EST     1.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:11 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:00 PM EST     1.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:27 PM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.91.21.41.51.41.10.70.30-0.1-0.10.20.61.11.51.81.91.81.61.20.90.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:18 AM EST     0.45 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:21 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:49 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:03 AM EST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:57 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:33 PM EST     1.01 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:04 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:13 PM EST     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.40.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.300.40.8110.80.50-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.